INEQUALITY, EDUCATION & SKILLS Craig Alexander Senior Vice President and Chief Economist August 2014 INEQUALITY ON THE RISE Inequality, Education and Skills 1 TD Economics, August 2014
MIDDLE SKILL JOBS HAVE BEEN UNDER PRESSURE % Change in Occupation Share Since 1999 20 15 Canada United States 10 5 0-5 -10-15 High Skill Medium Skill Low Skill * Canada's data encompasses 1999-2012, whereas U.S. data cover 1999-2009. Source: TD Economics, Statistics Canada, BLS, David Autor (MIT) LESS PRESSURE ON CDN MIDDLE CLASS DUE TO CONSTRUCTION AND RESOURCE BOOM Inequality, Education and Skills 2 TD Economics, August 2014
THE INFLUENCE OF EDUCATION AND SKILLS "The main force in favor of greater equality has been the diffusion of knowledge and skills" "Knowledge and skill diffusion is the key to overall productivity growth as well as the reduction of inequality both within and between countries" Thomas Piketty WHERE TO INVEST? START WITH CHILDREN Inequality, Education and Skills 3 TD Economics, August 2014
THE FIRST 5 YEARS OF LIFE CAN IMPACT ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SUCCESS Research has challenged prior misconceptions. Human abilities driven more by environment (80%) than genetics (20%) Basic abilities can be altered early in life as genes respond to life experiences It is more difficult to improve a child s learning abilities later in life Pre-primary education leads to cognitive and language development Increases labour participation of parents Reduces stress on parents MANY STUDIES SHOW THE BENEFITS OUTWEIGH THE COSTS STUDIES OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF ECE PROGRAMS Study Benefit / Cost ($) Economic Consequences of Quebec's Educational Child Care Policy, by Fortin, Godbout & St-Cerny, 2011 Better Beginnings, Better Futures by Peters et al., 2010 Worforce Shortages Socio-Economic Effects, by Fairholm, 2009 Child Care as Economic and Social Development, by Prentice, 2007 The Benefits and Costs of Good Child Care, by Cleveland & Krashinsky, 1998 1.49 2.00 2.42 2.78 2.00 Source: Early Years Study Inequality, Education and Skills 4 TD Economics, August 2014
SO HOW IS CANADA DOING? IT DEEPLY UNDERINVESTS IN ECE 2.5% Public Expenditure on ECE services as % of GDP 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Canada Australia Italy Germany Netherlands US UK Austria Hungary France Finland Norway Sweden Denmark Source: OECD CANADA IS LEAVING IT UP TO PARENTS, AND ENROLLMENT IS LOW Inequality, Education and Skills 5 TD Economics, August 2014
CANADA HAS HIGHEST PARTICIPATION IN POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN OECD BUT WE HAVE LOTS OF GRADUATES THAT LACK ESSENTIAL SKILLS Inequality, Education and Skills 6 TD Economics, August 2014
MANY CANADIANS HAVE INADEQUATE LITERACY SHARE OF POPULATION WITH BELOW DESIRED LITERACY AND NUMERACY Per cent of population 70 60 50 48.5 54.7 40 30 20 10 0 Literacy Numeracy Source: The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, 2012. PROVINCIAL SCORES ON LITERACY AVERAGE LITERACY SCORES BY PROVINCE 280 Average score 270 260 250 NL NB QC SK OECD CAN MB NS BC ON PEI AB Source: The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, 2012. Inequality, Education and Skills 7 TD Economics, August 2014
PROVINCIAL SCORES ON NUMERACY AVERAGE NUMERACY SCORES BY PROVINCE 280 Average score 270 260 250 NL NB NS SK MB QC PEI CAN ON BC AB OECD Source: The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, 2012. NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT CANADIAN LITERACY SCORES RELATIVE TO OTHER INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Average score - all persons 290 285 280 275 279 275 280 271 Canada 273 OECD 273 270 265 260 255 250 1994 2003 2012 Source: The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, 2012. Inequality, Education and Skills 8 TD Economics, August 2014
DECLINING NUMERACY NUMERACY PROFICIENCY Per cent of population 50 45 40 2012 2003 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Source: The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies, 2012. HIGHER LITERACY RAISES INCOME 50,000 Dollars PERSONAL INCOME BY PROSE LITERACY PROFICIENCY $42,239 40,000 $36,688 30,000 $29,001 20,000 $20,692 10,000 0 Poor (Level 1) Weak (Level 2) Acceptable (Level 3) Strong (Level 4/5) Source: Statistics Canada Inequality, Education and Skills 9 TD Economics, August 2014
Average WEAK LITERACY IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCOME INEQUALITY Income inequality (Gini coefficient) 0.4 0.38 High income inequality Low skills inequality High income inequality United States High skills inequality 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.3 0.28 0.26 0.24 Japan Korea Slovak Republic Czech Republic Estonia Austria Australia Netherlands Ireland Norway Denmark England/N. Ireland (UK) Italy Canada Poland Germany FinlandSweden Flanders (Belgium) Spain Average 0.22 Low income inequality Low income inequality 0.2 Low skills inequality High skills inequality 1.4 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.6 1.65 1.7 Literacy skills inequality (9th/1st decile) Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012), Table A6.16 (L) and OECD.Stat "Country statistical profiles" EDUCATION HAS A HIGH RETURN ON INVESTMENT Inequality, Education and Skills 10 TD Economics, August 2014
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BROAD-BASED LABOUR SHORTAGES FOR NOW 6 Vacancy Rate, % 5 4 3 2 1 Skilled Trades (Weighted Average) All Other Occupations (Weighted Average) 0 Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Source: Statistics Canada, WANTED Analytics; Calculations by TD Economics. CONCERNS ABOUT SKILL MISMATCHES, LEADING TO POOR OUTCOMES FOR YOUTH Agriculture & natural resources Architecture & engineering Math, computer & info sciences Business, mgt and public admin. Social & behavioural sciences & law Physical & life sciences & technologies Health & related fields Visual/performing arts & comm. Education Personal, protective & transportation Humanities Note: Field of study based on highest level of education attainment. Source: Statistics Canada. 73% 74% 75% 76% 77% 78% 79% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% Employment rate in 2011, % Inequality, Education and Skills 11 TD Economics, August 2014
HUMANITIES & EDUCATION HIGH IN TERMS OF GRADUATES, LOW IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT Business & Administration Social & Behavioural science Arts & Humanities Education Life & Physical Sciences Veterinary & Health Engineering & Engineering Trades Services Law Architecture & Building Journalism & Information Computing Other/not known Mathematics & Statistics Canada 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: OECD Education Database, 2011. % of graduates EMPLOYERS WANT WORK READY EMPLOYEES, BUT THEY ARE NOT DOING THEIR PART 1,400 Training Cost per Employee, Constant 2010 $ 1993: $1,116 (Peak) 1,200 1,000 800-38% 600 400 2010: $688 200 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Source: Conference Board of Canada. Inequality, Education and Skills 12 TD Economics, August 2014
CANADA MORE RELIANT ON LABOUR 15,000 Capital Investment per Worker, Canadian Dollars 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 U.S. Canada 6,000 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11E 12E Source: C.D. Howe Institute, 2007 and 2012 CANADA NEEDS TO UPSKILL ITS WORKFORCE TO ADDRESS WEAK PRODUCTIVITY PROBLEM 6 Average Business Sector Productivity Growth Rate by Decade, % 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09 2010-12 Source: Statistics Canada (1981-2012), Centre for the Study of Living Standards (Pre-1981) Inequality, Education and Skills 13 TD Economics, August 2014
GLOBALIZATION AND TECH CHANGE WILL PERSIST, REQUIRING MORE SKILLED WORKERS Services Share of Canadian Real GDP, % Manufacturing Share of Canadian Real GDP, % 74 18 72 16 70 14 68 12 66 64 Services (lhs) Manufacturing (rhs) 10 8 62 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 6 Source: Conference Board of Canada DEMOGRAPHICS POINTS TO FUTURE LABOUR MARKET SHORTAGES 14 Unemployment Rate, % 13 12 11 10 9 Long-Term Forecast 8 7 6 5 4 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics; Long-Term Forecast by TD Economics Inequality, Education and Skills 14 TD Economics, August 2014
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTION HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY LIFTS LABOUR INCOME HAS FAILED IN U.S. BUT IN CANADA MORE EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN CAPITAL AND LABOUR, SO WE NEED TO UPSKILL Inequality, Education and Skills 15 TD Economics, August 2014
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