The first of its kind bi-monthly survey of racially and ethnically diverse young adults Field Period: 08/31-09/16/2017 Total N: 1,816 adults Age Range: 18-34 NOTE: All results indicate percentages unless labeled otherwise.
MARGIN OF ERROR ESTIMATES (% pts) Group Estimate Full Sample +/- 3.80 African +/- 5.46 Asian +/- 8.81 Latinxs +/- 6.96 Whites +/- 5.84 Democrats +/- 5.25 Independents +/- 8.33 Republicans +/- 6.92 Male +/- 5.38 Female +/- 5.25 NOTE: All estimates are calculated at the 95% level of confidence 2
Q0. Did you vote for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, someone else, or not vote in the 2016 presidential election? Hillary Clinton 60 47 34 31 37 Donald Trump 3 13 8 30 20 Someone else 8 5 7 13 10 Did not vote in the 2016 presidential election 28 34 51 27 33 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED 1 - * * * Q1. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Strongly approve 3 3 3 10 7 Somewhat approve 4 8 10 20 14 Neither approve nor disapprove 13 11 11 17 15 Somewhat disapprove 17 19 20 18 18 Strongly disapprove 62 59 57 35 46 DON T KNOW - - * - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 * - * * Q2. Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Strongly approve 4 2 2 3 3 Somewhat approve 6 6 14 11 11 Neither approve nor disapprove 25 21 26 30 28 Somewhat disapprove 28 41 30 34 33 Strongly disapprove 36 28 28 21 25 DON T KNOW - - - * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 * * * * 3
Q3. For both parties, please select if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that party. If you don t know enough about the party to have an opinion, you can say that too. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Q3A. The Republican Party Very favorable 3 3 7 8 7 Somewhat favorable 8 15 13 25 19 Somewhat unfavorable 19 24 23 22 22 Very unfavorable 47 44 37 31 36 Don t know enough to say 19 11 19 12 14 SKIP/REFUSED 4 3 1 2 2 Q3B. The Democratic Party Very favorable 22 13 15 5 10 Somewhat favorable 39 55 37 28 33 Somewhat unfavorable 17 13 19 27 23 Very unfavorable 6 7 8 27 19 Don t know enough to say 15 12 20 13 15 SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 * * Q4. Do you think the Democratic Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes 69 68 60 45 53 No 31 30 37 55 46 DON T KNOW * - 2 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 4
Q5. Do you think the Republican Party cares about people like you, or not? Yes 12 23 19 39 30 No 87 75 79 60 69 DON T KNOW * - 2 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 * 1 1 Q6. Would you say things in this country are Off on the wrong track 73 79 68 64 67 Generally headed in the right direction 11 11 13 16 14 Not sure 15 10 18 20 18 SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 * * Q7. How would you describe the nation s economy these days? Would you say Very good 3 5 3 4 4 Somewhat good 14 25 27 33 28 Neither good nor poor 28 34 32 28 29 Somewhat poor 28 22 24 19 22 Very poor 20 5 10 12 13 Not sure 6 9 4 3 4 SKIP/REFUSED 1 * * * * Q8. These days, do you feel optimistic that of different political views can still come together and work out their differences, or are you pessimistic that can do that now? Optimistic 50 44 48 39 43 Pessimistic 48 56 50 61 56 DON T KNOW * - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 * 1 1 1 5
Q9. Do you think the country has become more united, more divided, or not really changed since President Trump took office? More united 4 3 4 6 5 More divided 79 88 80 72 76 Hasn t really changed 16 10 15 22 19 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 1 1 Q11. Generally speaking, how optimistic are you about your personal future think about things like finding and keeping a good job, paying off your student loan debt, and being able to afford the lifestyle you want? Very optimistic 29 14 21 26 25 Somewhat optimistic 31 50 33 37 36 Neither optimistic nor pessimistic 21 18 23 19 20 Somewhat pessimistic 13 15 13 12 13 Very pessimistic 6 3 8 5 6 DON T KNOW - - - * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 1 * 1 Q12. Next we would like for you to think about the upcoming congressional elections that will be held in 2018. In the congressional elections in 2018, do you plan to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate? Democratic Candidate 55 50 39 30 37 Republican Candidate 6 10 14 29 21 Neither/Not Sure 38 41 45 40 41 SKIP/REFUSED 1 * 2 1 1 6
If Neither/Not Sure Q12A. Do you lean more towards planning to vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? African Asian Democratic Candidate 33 38 36 24 29 Republican Candidate 3 7 10 17 13 Neither 61 55 53 58 57 SKIP/REFUSED 3 * 1 1 1 N= 171 95 221 196 706 Q7A. What do you think are the three most important problems facing this country today? Please select which three of these are the most important. [ITEMS RANDOMIZED] Abortion 2 * 3 5 4 National debt 7 8 12 15 13 Environment and climate change 12 21 24 27 24 Gay rights 7 1 3 4 4 Gun control 9 12 6 7 8 Health care 30 45 29 39 36 Immigration 10 20 39 16 20 Poverty 19 10 11 10 11 Income inequality 13 20 11 12 13 Unemployment 15 10 11 10 11 Economic growth 14 13 14 12 13 Military strength 3 3 2 7 5 Morality and religion in society 4 6 5 7 6 Racism 52 32 33 26 32 Social Security 5 7 5 6 6 Taxes 8 12 7 13 11 Women s rights 5 3 3 4 4 Crime 16 6 6 8 9 Foreign policy 5 16 8 11 10 Education 18 25 21 20 20 Terrorism and homeland security 10 13 18 26 21 Police brutality 25 5 9 8 10 DON T KNOW - - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 * * * 7
Q7B. Please rank these three problems facing this country today in order of their importance to you. [SHOW ITEMS SELECTED IN Q7A] African American adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 1 1 * National debt 1 2 3 Environment and climate change 6 3 3 Gay rights 1 1 4 Gun control 1 3 5 Health care 13 8 9 Immigration 2 3 5 Poverty 6 8 5 Income inequality 4 5 4 Unemployment 3 6 6 Economic growth 4 3 7 Military strength 1 1 * Morality and religion in society 2 * 2 Racism 29 15 9 Social Security 2 2 1 Taxes 1 1 5 Women s rights * 1 3 Crime 6 4 6 Foreign policy 1 2 2 Education 6 7 5 Terrorism and homeland security 4 3 2 Police brutality 6 12 7 N= 503 503 503 8
Asian American adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion - * - National debt 2 1 5 Environment and climate change 13 3 5 Gay rights 1 1 * Gun control 3 7 2 Health care 17 15 13 Immigration 5 10 5 Poverty 4 * 5 Income inequality 5 9 6 Unemployment 3 5 1 Economic growth 4 5 4 Military strength - 1 2 Morality and religion in society 2 2 3 Racism 14 10 8 Social Security 3 1 4 Taxes 4 6 3 Women s rights * 1 2 Crime 3 1 2 Foreign policy 4 2 11 Education 9 9 7 Terrorism and homeland security 2 6 5 Police brutality * 3 2 N= 258 258 258 9
Latinx adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 2 * 1 National debt 3 5 4 Environment and climate change 11 5 7 Gay rights * 2 1 Gun control 2 3 1 Health care 7 12 10 Immigration 13 12 14 Poverty 2 2 6 Income inequality 2 5 4 Unemployment 3 3 5 Economic growth 4 6 4 Military strength * * 1 Morality and religion in society 3 * 2 Racism 18 9 6 Social Security * 2 3 Taxes 1 4 2 Women s rights 1 1 1 Crime 2 1 3 Foreign policy 5 2 1 Education 10 6 5 Terrorism and homeland security 8 6 4 Police brutality 1 4 4 N= 505 505 505 10
White adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 2 1 1 National debt 4 6 5 Environment and climate change 14 6 7 Gay rights * 1 2 Gun control 2 3 3 Health care 12 17 10 Immigration 2 5 10 Poverty 4 1 5 Income inequality 3 5 4 Unemployment 2 4 4 Economic growth 4 4 4 Military strength 2 3 2 Morality and religion in society 4 1 2 Racism 9 8 9 Social security 3 2 1 Taxes 5 3 5 Women s rights 1 1 1 Crime 2 3 3 Foreign policy 2 5 4 Education 8 6 6 Terrorism and homeland security 15 9 3 Police brutality 1 3 4 N= 510 510 510 11
All adults 18-34 Most Important Issue Second Most Important Issue Third Most Important Issue Abortion 2 1 1 National debt 3 5 5 Environment and climate change 12 5 6 Gay rights * 1 2 Gun control 2 3 2 Health care 12 15 10 Immigration 4 7 10 Poverty 4 3 5 Income inequality 3 5 4 Unemployment 2 4 5 Economic growth 4 4 5 Military strength 1 2 1 Morality and religion in society 3 1 2 Racism 14 9 8 Social Security 2 2 2 Taxes 4 3 4 Women s rights 1 1 2 Crime 3 3 3 Foreign policy 3 3 4 Education 8 6 6 Terrorism and homeland security 11 7 3 Police brutality 2 5 4 N= 1,816 1,816 1,816 Q38A. Since the November presidential election, have you attended a political event, rally or organized protest, or have you not attended any of these types of events since then? Yes 15 17 14 13 14 No 84 82 81 87 84 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED 1 1 5 1 1 12
If yes to Q38A. Q38B. And would you say the protest you attended since the 2016 election has been in support of Donald Trump or his policies, in opposition to Donald Trump or his policies, or not related to Donald Trump or his policies? African Asian In support of Donald Trump or his policies 14 11 14 19 16 In opposition of Donald Trump or his policies 67 85 64 68 68 Not related to Donald Trump or his policies 19 4 22 14 16 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED - - * - * N= 80 47 74 77 290 Q56. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: All groups should be entitled to hold parades and demonstrations, even if they represent causes most oppose, such as communism, Nazis, or white supremacy. Strongly agree 17 19 17 30 24 Somewhat agree 23 33 34 29 29 Somewhat disagree 26 22 19 26 24 Strongly disagree 33 24 27 15 21 DON T KNOW - - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 4 2 1 1 Q48. Do you personally see the Confederate flag more as a symbol of Southern pride or more as a symbol of racism? Southern pride 16 25 29 55 41 Racism 83 71 65 43 56 DON T KNOW - - 4 * 1 SKIP/REFUSED 1 4 3 2 2 13
Q55. Do you support or oppose efforts to remove Confederate statues and symbols from public places such as government buildings and parks? Strongly support 46 32 29 18 26 Somewhat support 27 34 26 19 23 Somewhat oppose 16 21 27 32 27 Strongly oppose 10 10 13 30 22 DON T KNOW - - 3 * 1 SKIP/REFUSED 1 3 2 1 1 Q51. Which do you think is more important for college campuses to focus on? African Asian Allowing people to speak their minds freely even if someone gets offended 25 40 34 46 40 Ensuring that people feel welcome and safe on campus or in college 73 59 63 52 58 classrooms DON T KNOW - - * * * SKIP/REFUSED 1 2 3 1 2 14
DEMOGRAPHICS PID1. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what? Democrat 56 47 38 25 34 Republican 5 9 13 24 18 Independent 21 31 30 34 31 Something Else 17 10 15 16 16 DON'T KNOW * - 1 - * SKIP/REFUSED 1 3 2 1 1 If independent, something else, or DK/REF in PID1 PIDI. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party? Closer to the Republican Party 6 10 9 29 20 Closer to the Democratic Party 38 54 45 35 39 Neither 53 30 42 34 38 DON T KNOW - - 2 - * SKIP/REFUSED 2 6 2 2 2 N= 189 99 230 247 792 If Democrat in PID1 PIDA. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? Strong Democrat 52 42 38 52 48 Not very strong Democrat 48 57 61 48 52 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED - * * - * N= 289 134 228 134 793 15
If Republican in PID1 PIDB. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? Strong Republican 74 31 21 38 37 Not very strong Republican 26 69 79 62 63 DON T KNOW - - - - - SKIP/REFUSED - - - - - N= 25 25 47 129 231 PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) 71 72 62 43 53 Strong Democrat 29 20 15 13 16 Not very strong Democrat 27 28 24 12 18 Closer to the Democratic Party 15 24 23 18 19 Independent/None Don t lean 21 14 21 18 19 Republican (NET) 7 14 17 39 28 Closer to the Republican Party 3 4 4 15 10 Not very strong Republican 1 7 10 15 11 Strong Republican 3 3 3 9 7 N= 498 252 500 504 1794 AGE 18-22 38 34 36 33 34 23-26 26 23 25 23 24 27-30 21 25 21 27 25 31-34 16 18 18 17 17 16
GENDER Male 49 49 51 48 49 Female 51 51 48 49 49 RACE/ETHNICITY 1 All adults 18-34 African American 15 Asian American 7 Latinx 21 White 56 Other 1 N= 1816 MARITAL STATUS Married 14 26 27 32 28 Widowed * - 2 - * Divorced 3 7 1 3 3 Separated 1 * 2 1 1 Never married 71 58 49 52 54 Living with partner 11 10 20 11 13 EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed 64 64 60 68 65 Not employed 36 36 40 32 35 1 All of the African American, Asian American, White, and Other respondents do not identify as Latinx. 17
EDUCATION African Asian Less than a high school diploma 10 1 20 8 10 High school graduate or equivalent 34 22 34 25 28 Some college 40 17 34 39 37 College graduate or above 16 60 13 28 25 INCOME Under $10,000 14 3 15 10 11 $10,000 to under $20,000 12 8 15 8 10 $20,000 to under $30,000 21 11 18 11 14 $30,000 to under $40,000 15 9 13 13 13 $40,000 to under $50,000 8 6 10 9 9 $50,000 to under $75,000 16 21 17 17 17 $75,000 to under $100,000 7 19 9 14 12 $100,000 to under $150,000 6 13 4 13 10 $150,000 or more 3 9 2 5 4 N= 502 258 505 510 1815 18
UNWEIGHTED DEMOGRAPHICS UNWEIGHTED PARTY ID. Combines PID1, PIDI, PIDA, and PIDB. Democrat (NET) 74 72 63 45 62 Strong Democrat 31 25 16 14 21 Not very strong Democrat 27 28 30 12 23 Closer to the Democratic Party 16 19 17 19 18 Independent/None Don t lean 19 13 23 14 18 Republican (NET) 8 16 14 40 19 Closer to the Republican Party 3 6 5 14 7 Not very strong Republican 2 8 6 15 7 Strong Republican 3 2 3 11 5 N= 498 252 500 504 1794 UNWEIGHTED AGE 18-22 39 49 37 33 38 23-26 28 28 24 23 25 27-30 20 17 22 24 21 31-34 13 6 17 20 15 UNWEIGHTED GENDER African Asian Male 45 45 49 49 47 Female 54 55 51 49 52 19
UNWEIGHTED RACE/ETHNICITY All adults 18-34 African American 28 Asian American 14 Latinx 28 White 28 Other 2 N= 1816 UNWEIGHTED MARITAL STATUS Married 12 14 23 31 21 Widowed * - 1 - * Divorced 2 2 2 2 2 Separated 1 * 2 1 1 Never married 74 78 56 53 63 Living with partner 11 6 17 13 13 UNWEIGHTED EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed 62 61 63 72 65 Not employed 38 39 37 28 35 UNWEIGHTED EDUCATION African Asian Less than a high school diploma 7 2 11 5 7 High school graduate or equivalent 30 19 27 17 23 Some college 43 30 46 42 42 College graduate or above 20 49 17 37 28 20
UNWEIGHTED INCOME Under $10,000 15 7 12 9 11 $10,000 to under $20,000 13 8 16 9 12 $20,000 to under $30,000 22 12 17 12 16 $30,000 to under $40,000 12 7 13 13 12 $40,000 to under $50,000 8 8 11 10 9 $50,000 to under $75,000 17 23 16 17 18 $75,000 to under $100,000 5 14 9 12 9 $100,000 to under $150,000 5 13 5 12 8 $150,000 or more 2 9 2 6 4 N= 502 258 505 510 1815 21
METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW The NBC News/GenForward Survey is a collaborative project between NBC News and GenForward, a project at the University of Chicago, led by Professor Cathy J. Cohen. Interviews were conducted with a representative sample from GenForward SM, a nationally representative survey panel of adults ages 18-34 recruited and administered by NORC at the University of Chicago. A total of 1,816 interviews were conducted between August 31 and September 16, 2017 with adults ages 18-34 representing the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including completed interviews with 503 African American young adults, 258 Asian American young adults, 505 Latinx young adults, 510 white young adults, and 40 young adults with other racial and ethnic backgrounds. The survey was offered in English and Spanish and via telephone and web modes. The NBC News/GenForward survey was built from two sample sources: Sixty-five percent of the completed interviews are sourced from NORC s AmeriSpeak Panel. AmeriSpeak is a probability based panel that also uses address-based sample but sourced from the NORC National Frame with enhanced sample coverage. During the initial recruitment phase of the AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection and then contacted by U.S. mail, email, telephone, and field interviewers (face-to-face). Thirty-five percent of the completed interviews are sourced from the Black Youth Project (BYP) panel of young adults recruited by NORC. The BYP sample is from a probability-based household panel that uses an address-based sample from a registered voter database of the entire U.S. Households were selected using stratified random sampling to support oversampling of households with African, Latinxs, and Asian ages 18-34. NORC contacted sampled households by U.S. mail and by telephone, inviting them to register and participate in public opinion surveys twice a month. Panelists on both the BYP and AmeriSpeak panels are invited to register for the panel via the web or by telephone to participate in public opinion surveys. Of the 1,816 completed interviews in the GenForward September survey, 94 percent were completed by web and 6 percent by telephone. The survey completion rate is 26.7 percent. The weighted AAPOR RR3 panel recruitment rate is 22.1 percent and the weighted household panel retention rate is 89.5 percent, for a cumulative AAPOR Response Rate 3 of 5.3 percent. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. Among racial subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- 5.5 percentage points for African, +/- 8.8 percentage points for Asian, +/- 7.0 percentage points for Latinxs, and +/- 5.8 percentage points for whites. Among partisan subgroups, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- for Democrats, +/- 5.25 for 6.92 Republicans, and +/- 8.33 for 22
Independents. Among gender categories, the margin of sampling error at the 95 percent confidence level for is +/- 5.38 for male and +/- 5.25 for female. To encourage cooperation, respondents were offered incentives for completing the survey that ranged from the cash-equivalent of $3 to the cash-equivalent of $10. The interviews from the two probability-based sample sources were combined for statistical weighting and analysis. The combined panel samples provide sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box only addresses, some addresses not listed in the USPS Delivery Sequence File, and some newly constructed dwellings. The statistical weights incorporate the appropriate probability of selection for the BYP and AmeriSpeak samples, nonresponse adjustments, and also, raking ratio adjustments to population benchmarks for 18-34 year old adults. A poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any noncoverage or under- and over-sampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. The poststratification process was done separately for each racial/ethnic group and involved the following variables: age, gender, education, and census region. The weighted data, which reflect the U.S. population of adults ages 18-34, and the 18-34 year-old populations for African, Latinxs, Asian, and non-latinx whites, were used for all analyses. 23