FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 3, 2016 Contact: Brandon Gregoire, Co-Founder (855) ZIA-POLL (942-7655) www.ziapoll.com brandon@ziapoll.com Trump Trails Clinton by Only 3 Points In New Mexico. Making up 2 Points Over The Last Week. Johnson s Polling Numbers Continue to Decline. The state-wide survey of 1,102 likely voters, conducted on November 1 st and 2 nd by ZiaPoll, shows a 3 point Clinton advantage going into the final weekend before Election Day. Donald Trump has been closing the gap in New Mexico over the last three weeks and has turned a 10-point deficit three weeks ago into 5 last week, and now 3 with less than a week to go. Trump visited Albuquerque last Sunday evening and his campaign has made it clear that they believe New Mexico is still up for grabs. With the deficit within the margin of error of a statistical tie, both candidates have ramped up spending in the state. Clinton still leads among females and Hispanic/Latino voters, however Trump is leading Clinton by 3 points in the crossover vote. Meaning more Democrats are voting for Trump than Republicans are voting for Clinton. The poll also found that younger voters between 18 and 34 continue to support Trump over Clinton. This trend has remained consistent over the last four NM statewide surveys. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has seen his support decline in his home state for the forth week in a row, with 8.5 percent of respondents saying they supported Johnson in the past but have since changed their minds. Johnson s support has dropped from 16 points four weeks ago, to 12 points two weeks ago, 9 points last week, and now to 6.7 points in the final few days. When asked if their vote was a vote of support for their candidate or a protest vote against the other candidate, 1 in 5 voters said their vote was a protest vote. About 23.1 percent of Trump supporters and 23.9 percent of Republicans said their vote was a protest vote as opposed to 14 percent of Clinton supporters and 16 percent of Democrats. Nearly 1 in 4 Republicans are not actually calling themselves Trump supporters, but they are sticking with their party nominee out of protest of Clinton. Almost 40 percent of Johnson supporters say their vote is a protest vote and not necessarily a vote of support for the Libertarian nominee. About 29 percent of voters who registered as Independent or with other parties say their vote is a protest vote against the other candidate(s). Over the last four NM statewide polls, Republicans have had a higher participation rate compared to the actual historical registered Republican voter turnout. This may be an indication of higher enthusiasm among the Republican base. In the September 24 th statewide poll, 3 percent more Republicans than Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about this election year than in previous years. With the frequent Wikileak email releases and the reopening of the FBI investigation into Clintons email server, enthusiasm of voters of both parties is likely to play a crucial part in the final days of the campaign. These small deviations from the norm have been taking into consideration when weighting the final sample. The November 1 st & 2 nd statewide survey was the first that provided voters the option to take the poll in English and Spanish. While only 1 percent of respondents took the poll in Spanish, 80 percent of Spanish speaking participants selected Hillary Clinton as their choice for president. The other 20 percent said they were still undecided. Though this sample size of Spanish only speaking voters is much too small to extrapolate to the larger population, it is interesting to note that none of this group selected Trump as their choice. www.ziapoll.com (855) ZIA-POLL
NM NEWS: Toulouse Oliver Holds 10 Point Lead over Nora Espanoza in NM Secretary of State Race. The November 1 st and 2 nd poll shows Maggie Toulouse Oliver holds a 10 point lead over her opponent Nora Espanoza. The race for New Mexico Secretary of State looks to be comfortably in Oliver s hands less than a week before election. RED OR GREEN? Finally! Something all New Mexico can agree on- we love our chile! ZiaPoll thought it would be interesting and fun to ask the New Mexico state question as the final question in our last statewide poll before Election Day. Voters were asked if they prefer red or green chile. Green chile won overwhelmingly with 44 percent of voters saying they prefer green, while 24 percent prefer Christmas (red and green together) and 21 percent prefer red. The breakdown of voters who selected green chile was almost identical to the likely voter breakdown in New Mexico: 38 percent Republicans, 45 percent Democrat, and 17 percent Independent/other. So, no matter who we choose for president, us New Mexicans always have our green chile to settle our differences. About The Poll ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, followed up its September 24 th, October 11 th, and 24 th New Mexico statewide polls with a new statewide poll on November 1 st and 2 nd. The scientific study was conducted statewide on November 1 st and 2 nd with 1,102 likely New Mexico voters selected at random statewide using IVR (Interactive Voice Response) for interviews with voters via landline telephones. Cell phones made up 18 percent of the total sample. Cell phones were contacted and requested to volunteer participation in the same IVR survey. The survey was provided in English and Spanish with only 1 percent of respondents taking the Spanish version. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district. The data was weighted using a layered technique. The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of New Mexico likely voters. The November 1 st and 2 nd study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ± 3.0 percent. This poll conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. About ZiaPoll ZiaPoll is a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster. The company uses scientific and unbiased methods, in tandem with multiple technologies, to gather and provide analysis on The Pulse of New Mexico. ZiaPoll aims to gauge the public opinion of New Mexicans while representing the demographic and geographic breakdown of New Mexico. www.ziapoll.com (855) ZIA-POLL
ZIAPoll.com NM Statewide Poll: Likely Voters Date 11 / 1-2 / 2016 Margin of Error 3.0 Sample Size = 1,102 Instrument & Top Line Report To take this poll in English Press 1. For Spanish Press 2. Language English 1091 99.0 Spanish 11 1.0 On November 8th, New Mexico voters will go to the polls and vote for president as well as other various state and local offices in addition to some state questions. Do you plan to vote in this election? PlanToVote Percent Count Yes 872 79.2 Already Voted 230 20.8 Total: All "NO" responses have been removed. POTUS Combined 1102 100.0 Choice for President of the United States. POTUS Will Vote is combined with POTUS Already Voted to make up this table. Clinton 505 45.8 Trump 472 42.8 Johnson 74 6.7 Stein 13 1.2 Another Candidate 25 2.2 Undecided 13 1.2
POTUS Will Vote Thinking about the November Clinton 376 43.1 presidential election, if you were Trump 396 45.4 standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice Johnson 60 6.9 for president for, whom would you Stein 11 1.3 vote? Another Candidate 18 2.1 Undecided 11 1.2 Total 872 100.0 POTUS Already Voted Who did you vote for when you voted early? Clinton 129 56.0 Trump 76 33.1 Johnson 14 6.0 Stein 2 1.0 Other candidate 7 2.9 No POTUS choice 2 0.9 Total 230 100.0 Johnson In the past few weeks, some people who had supported Gary Johnson for president have switched their vote to another candidate. Which of the following statements best describes you? Previously supported 94 8.5 Never supported 909 82.5 Decline 99 9.0
Support or Protest Vote Would you say that your choice for President is more a vote of support for your candidate or is it more a protest vote against the other candidate? Support 846 76.8 Protest 229 20.8 Decline 26 2.4 Down Ballot Candidates Now thinking about your vote for other candidates that are on the ballot, also known as "down ballot candidates", do you plan to vote for down ballot candidates that belong to the same party as your presidential choice, or do you plan to vote for down ballot candidates of another party? Both R and D 402 36.5 Only Republican 301 27.3 Only Democrat 338 30.6 Other party 16 1.5 Not sure 45 4.1 Now, thinking about the election for the Secretary of State in New Mexico, if you were standing in the voting booth right now and had to make a choice for secretary of state for whom would you vote. NM Secretary of State Percent Count Oliver 555 50.3 Espanoza 442 40.2 Undecided 105 9.5 Now for statistical purposes only, with which political party are you registered? Party Republican 412 37.4 Democrat 531 48.2 Other party 159 14.4
Age Into which of the following age groups do you fall? Which of the following best describes your ethnic background? Are you male or female? 18-24 51 4.6 25-34 127 11.6 34-44 132 12.0 45-54 185 16.8 55-64 249 22.6 65+ 358 32.5 Race White/Caucasian 659 59.8 Black/African American 25 2.3 Hispanic/Latino 291 26.4 Native American 20 1.8 Asian 10 0.9 Not listed 42 3.8 Decline 54 4.9 Gender Male 498 45.2 Female 604 54.8 Chile And finally, to add a little spice to this election, the most important question for New Mexicans. Red or Green? Red 232 21.0 Green 489 44.4 Christmas 268 24.3 Neither 51 4.6 Decline 62 5.6