Thailand at a Glance Belgian Economic Mission to Thailand Information Session Arkhom Termpittayapaisith Secretary-General Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) Monday 18 th March 2013 The St Regis Hotel, Rajadamri Road, Bangkok, Thailand 1
Thailand Economic Strength GDP Growth (%) Avg. 1961-2010 World 3.49 China 8.24 Indonesia 5.40 Korea 7.21 Malaysia 6.45 Philippines 4.09 Singapore 7.89 Thailand 6.38 Thailand s Global Economic Ranking 51 st Largest Area 13 th Largest Tourist Receipts 19 th Largest Agricultural Output 20 th Largest Manufacturing Output 1 st Largest Hard Disk Drive Producer 1 st ASEAN Largest Automobile Producer 1 st ASEAN Largest Electronic Appliance Producer 23 rd Largest Economies by Purchasing Power 34 th Largest Economies 37 th Largest Services Output %Share 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Thailand export share continued to increase. In 2008, Thailand is the 24th export rank in world. Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Viet Nam 0.00 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Source: WTO Infrastructure Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia IMD Ranking 2012 Economic Performance 60 40 20 0 Business Efficiency Government Efficiency Source: IMD 2
Thailand s GDP growth 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 2010 Political unrest 3 1.9-2.5-2.8-5.2-7 12 9.2 5.9 4.1 2.2-0.8 2011 Impact of Tsunami 2011 / in Japan Severe flood 6.6 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.7 2.7 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.5-1 2010 2010 Slowdown of Trading Flood in Thailand partners economies 0.4 2.4-8.9-10.5 18.9 10.3 3.1 3.6 1.5 %yoy %qoq(sa) 2012 - Trading partners Economic Slowdown 2009 2010 2011 2012 = -2.3 = 7.8 = 0.1 = 6.4 2012 Global Economic Recovery Source: NESDB 3
Government policies to Raise Income & Reduce Expenses Income Boost Expenses Reduction Rice Pledging Increases Income of Farmers Corporate Tax Cut Increase competitiveness of private sector & prepare for AEC Min. Wage of 300/day Increases Income of labors First-Time- Car-Buyers Scheme Provide opportunity for car ownership for personal & commercial uses 15,000 Salary for Uni. Graduates Increases Income of University Graduates First-Home Policy Increase opportunity for home ownership Allowance for Elderly Provides Income Guarantee for Elderly people Support for Cost of Living Maintain the prices of consumer goods in a appropriate range Price support for agricultural produces e.g. cassava, Increases Income of Farmers Support for Energy Prices Maintain the prices of energy in a affordable range rubber, pineapple 4
Diversification is among the Strength of Thai Economy Real GDP Growth: Expenditure Side Growth (% YOY) 2011 2012 Year Year Consumption 1.3 6.7 2.4 5.6 6.7 12.2 - Private 1.3 8.8 2.9 5.3 6.0 12.2 - Public 1.1 1.1-0.2 7.4 9.8 12.1 Investment 3.3 13.3 5.2 10.2 15.5 23.5 - Private -8.7 8.9-9.6 4.0 13.2 31.1 - Public 7.2 14.6 9.2 11.8 16.2 21.7 Export 9.5 2.9-3.2 1.1-2.8 19.0 Import 13.7 6.2 4.3 8.6-1.8 14.7 GDP 0.1 6.4 0.4 4.4 3.1 18.9 Source: NESDB Real GDP Growth: Production Side Source: MOC Export Share by Destinations China 12% Other 35% US 10% ASEAN5 16% GDP Structure EU 9% Japan 10% CLMV 8% Growth (% YOY) 2011 2012 Year Year Agricultural 4.1 3.1 3.4 1.8 8.3 0.8 Manufacturing -4.3 7.0-4.3 2.8-1.1 37.4 Construction -5.1 7.8 0.8 6.9 9.8 14.1 Transportation 10% Other 17% Agriculture 9% Mining 2% Trade 1.8 5.2 4.1 5.4 4.0 7.6 Hotel & Restaurant 7.4 11.5 5.6 8.6 7.0 25.4 Financial 13.3 6.6 6.4 5.5 4.8 9.9 GDP 0.1 6.4 0.4 4.4 3.1 18.9 Source: NESDB Hotels and Restaurants 4% Source: NESDB Construction 2% Trade 13% Manufacturin g 39% Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 4% 5
Economic Stability Internal Stability External stability 800 Unemployed persons (Th persons) Unemployment Rate 2.5 12,000 CA Balance (Mil USD) CA/GDP (%) 16.0 600 2.0 8,000 11.0 400 200 0 190.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4,000 0-4,000 3.1 6.0 1.0-4.0 2009 = 21,895.8 2010 = 10,023.6 2011 = 5,888.6 2012 = 2,728.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0 Headline CPI 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009=1.5 2010=1.1 2011=0.6 2012=0.7 Headline CPI 2008=5.5 Headline CPI 2009=-0.9 Headline CPI 2010=3.3 Core CPI Headline CPI 2011=3.8 Headline CPI 2012=3.0 3.2 1.8 200 160 120 80 40 0 International Reserves (bn USD) International Reserves/ST External Debts 181.6 3.1 Times 11 9 7 5 3 1-1 -3 Core CPI 2008=2.3 Core CPI 2009=0.3 Core CPI 2010=0.9 Core CPI 2011=2.4 Core CPI 2012=2.1 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office 6
The Economic Outlook for 2013 o Thai economy in 2013 is expected to grow by 4.5-5.5%. o In 2013, external demand will play a more important role in driving the economy following the global recovery. While, Domestic demand is expected to growth at a satisfactory rate. o Economic stability remain favorable. Economic Projection for 2013 Economic Indicators 2013 GDP 4.5-5.5 Private Consumption 3.5 Total Investment 8.9 Export of Goods (US$) 11.0 Inflation 3.2 Current Account to GDP 0.9 Source: NESDB Supporting Factors Recovery of the global economy Recovery of global demand for electronics & computers Low and stable inflationary pressure Domestic demand is expected to grow at a satisfactory rate Sufficient Budgetary Framework for investment project implementation Risks and Limitations Labor intensive industries will remain under constraints Excess liquidity in the global financial systems Drought remains a downside risk for agriculture There remains upside risks for oil price to increase faster than its fundamentals, 7
Long-term and Medium-term Development Guideline USD 14,000 12,000 High Income Country Thai GNI per Capita Target : 1. Maintain GDP growth at 5-6 % 2. Achieve GNI per capita of 12,000 USD (Atlas method) by 2030 TFP and TFP Growth 10,000 8,000 6,000 Projection TFP 2007, US=100 4,000 2,000 0 Upper Middle Income Country Lower Middle Income Country 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Current (per cap) GNI = $4420 GDP = $5382 Source: NESDB, World Bank Annual Change in TFP, 1985-2007 8
Medium-term growth strategy (5-7 years) will emphasize investment to improve productivity, competitiveness, and long-term potential growth Justifications for investment stimulation Strengthen domestic demand to reduce the impacts from global slowdown Increase long-run growth potential Reduce logistic costs Support economic restructuring Agricultural TFP Efficiency in manufacturing production High mobility service sector Regional connectivity With the rapid expansion of private investment, the bottleneck is likely Countries with lower GDP per-capita normally have higher rate of capital accumulation Average Investment Growth 2000-2011 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Average GDP Growth 2000-2011 China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore Philippines Korea Taiwan 2 4 6 8 10 12 Source: IMF 9
Thailand Regional Free Trade Area Agreement Effective: Dec 29, 2002 Effective: Oct 1, 2003 Subscribe: Nov 29, 2004 Effective: Jan 1, 2006 China Subscribe: Feb 27, 2009 Effective: Jan 1, 2010 Korea Japan Subscribe: June, 2006 Effective: Nov 1, 2007 Subscribe: Apr 11, 2008 Effective: Jun 1, 2009 Under the Negotiation EU Bahrain Subscribe: Aug 13, 2009 Effective: Jan 1,2010 Subscribe: Oct 9, 2003 Effective: Sep 1, 2004 India Thailand ASEAN AEC2015 Subscribe: Jul 5, 2004 Effective: Jan 1, 2005 Australia Subscribe: Nov 19, 2005 Effective: Dec 31, 2011 Peru Subscribe: Feb 27, 2009 Effective: Mar 12, 2010 New Zealand Under the Negotiation Chile Subscribe: April 19, 2005 Effective: Jul 1, 2005 Source: Ministry of Commerce 10
Potential of ASEAN Pop: 62.4 Mil. Persons GDP: 51.4 Bil. USD Pop: 6.3 Mil. Persons GDP: 8.3 Bil. USD Pop: 64.1 Mil. Persons GDP: 345.7 Bil. USD CAMBODIA Pop: 89.3 Mil. Persons GDP: 122.7 Bil. USD Pop: 95.9 Mil. Persons GDP: 224.7 Bil. USD Total ASEAN Pop: 608 Mil. Persons GDP: 2,176 Bil. USD ASEAN +3 (Japan, China, Korea) Pop: 2,138 Mil. Persons GDP: 16,193 Bil. USD Pop: 5.3 Mil. Persons GDP: 259.8 Bil. USD Pop: 15.1 Mil. Persons GDP: 12.9 Bil. USD Pop: 28.5 Mil. Persons GDP: 287.9 Bil. USD Pop: 0.4 Mil. Persons GDP: 16.3 Bil. USD ASEAN +6 (India, Australia, NZ) Pop: 4,937 Mil. Persons GDP: 19,792 Bil. USD Pop: 241.0 Mil. Persons GDP: 846.4 Bil. USD Source: IMF (data as of 2011) 11
ASEAN Community ASEAN Charter The motto of ASEAN is One Vision, One Identity, One Community. APSC Blueprint Political Development, Protection Promotion of Human Right, Promote Cohesive, Peaceful and Resilient Region AEC Blueprint Single Market & Production Base, Competitive Economic Region, Equitable Economic Development Integration into the Global Economy ASCC Blueprint Human Development, Social Welfare, Poverty Alleviation, ASEAN Identity Building, Environmental Sustainability Physical Connectivity Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) Institutional Connectivity People to People Connectivity Land, Maritime and Air Infrastructure Development ICT Energy Free flow of goods, service, and investment Transport Facilitation Free Flow of Skilled Labor and Human Resource Development Cross Border Procedures Education and Culture Tourisms 12
ASEAN Physical Connectivity : A Better Connected Regional Maritime and Port Road Network Rail Network Dawei Project 13
GMS Connectivity 14
Medium Term Development Guideline 1. Country Strategy 2. Water Resource Management ~10,300 Mil. USD 1. Growth and Competitiveness Towards High Income Country Human Capital / Quality of Life / Knowledge / Fairness Towards Good Governanc e in Public Sector Infrastructure / Productivity/ Research & Development 3. Infrastructure Development ~70,000 Mil. USD Towards Economic Equity Towards Sustainabl e Economy Railway Improvement 2.Inclusive Growth Legal Framework 3. Green Growth High-speed Train Road Network 15
Key Infrastructure Project Development High Speed Train Mode Budget (bn USD) Share of Total Budget Rail Transport 49.76 77% Road Transport 12.94 20% Water Transport 0.46 0.7% Air Transport 0.89 1.4% Border Facilities 0.41 0.6% Total 64.46 100% Dual Track Rail system Metropolitan Rail System Total length : 1,915 km Total investment: 15,300 Mill.USD No of route: 4 routes - North (Bang Sue-Chiang Mai) - North-East (Bang Sue-Nong Kai) - East (Makkasan-Rayong) - South (Bang Se-Huahin) Network in 2029: The total length is 495 km., with 308 stations, covering the area of 680 sq.km. with 5.13 mill. population (EIRR = 19.67%) Total length : 768 km Total investment: 2,590 Mill.USD No of route: 5 routes - Chachoensao-Kaeng Khoi - Lop Buri-Nakhonsawan-Makabao-Thanon Chira Junction - Thanon Chira Junction-Khonkaen - Nahkonpathom-Hauhin - Prachuap Khiri Khan-Chumphon 16
NESDB s Vision : Being the core planning agency responsible for strategy formulation towards balanced and sustainable development, upholding national interests, up-to-date with the latest changes and working with the highest efficiency Thank You www.nesdb.go.th 17