Political Monitor Trends ch 2008 Contacts: worc@ipsos-mori.com Ben.Page@ipsos-mori.com Julia.Clark@ipsos-mori.com 020 7347 3000
Voting Intentions
Voting Intentions (13-18 ch 2008) Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? LD Absolutely certain to vote 55% (1,084) of the electorate Other 7% Con 18% 40% Lab 35% Base: 1,084 British adults 18+, 13th 18th ch 2008 (figures exclude would not vote 13%, undecided 11% and refused 1%)
Voting Intentions and Likelihood to Vote Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? All giving a voting intention (74%) All certain to vote (55%) Other 8% Con Other 7% 6% Con LD 17% 35% LD 18% 40% Lab lead = +5% Lab lead = -5% 40% 35% Lab Lab Base: All voting = 74% (1,457); All certain to vote = 55% (1,084)
Voting Intentions Jan 03 08 (all certain to vote = 55% of electorate) Q How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Howard 45 40 elected Election Cameron elected Brown PM Con (40%) 35 30 Lab (35%) 25 20 15 10 LD (18%) 5 0 Jan-03 Jun Jul Aug Sep Dec Jan-04 Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan-05 June July Aug Jan-06 Jun July Dec Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Sep Dec Jan Base: c.2,000 GB adults each month, of which c.1,060 certain to vote
Satisfaction
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government % Dissatisfied % Satisfied Net Net change from 2008 David Cameron 34 38 +4 +4 Gordon Brown 58 27-31 -7 The Government 65 26-39 -5 Nick Clegg 26 19-7 -4 Base: 999 British adults 18+, 13-18 2008
Cameron vs. Brown (ch 2008) Q Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Gordon Brown David Cameron Don t know 15% Satisfied 27% Don t know 28% Satisfied 38% 58% 34% Dissatisfied Net = -31 Dissatisfied Net = +4 Base: 999 British adults 18+, 13-18 2008
The Government and Prime Minister Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Net satisfied (+/-) Government Blair Brown -31-39 Jan-05 June July Aug Jan-06 Jun Jul Dec Jan-07 Jun July Aug Dec Jan-08 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Gordon Brown (satisfaction) Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? ch 2008 July 2007 2008 Don t know 15% Satisfied 27% 100 80 60 Dissatisfied 58% 40 58% 20 0 Satisfied 27% Dissatisfied Net = -31 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07-07 Dec-07 Jan-08-08 -08 Base: 999 British adults 18+, 13-18 2008
Base: 306 Labour supporters 18+, 13-18 2008 Gordon Brown (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Don t know ch 2008 Satisfied 17% 55% 29% 100 80 60 40 20 July 2007 2008 Satisfied 55% Dissatisfied 29% Dissatisfied Net = +26 0 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07-07 Dec-07 Jan-08-08 -08
David Cameron (satisfaction) Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? ch 2008 July 2007 2008 Don t know 28% 34% Dissatisfied Satisfied 38% Net = +4 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied 38% Dissatisfied 34% Jan-06 June July Aug Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan-08-08 -08 Base: 999 British adults 18+, 13-18 2008
Q David Cameron (satisfaction among party supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? ch 2008 July 2007 ch 2008 Don t know 16% 19% Dissatisfied Satisfied 66% Net = +47 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Satisfied 66% Dissatisfied 19% Jan-06 June July Aug Dec Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan-08-08 -08 Base: 267 Conservative Supporters 18+, 13-18 2008
Satisfaction with Duncan Smith/ Howard / Cameron Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Iain Duncan Smith / Michael Howard/ David Cameron is doing his job as Leader of the Conservative Party? Net satisfied (+/-) All Conservative Supporters 50 +47% 40 30 IDS MH MH DC 20 10 0 4% -10-20 -30-40 Jan-03 Jul Sep Jan-04 Jul Jan-05 July Jun Jan-07 Jul Dec Base: c. 1,000 British adults (c. 200 Conservative voters), 18+ each month
Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Opposition Leaders (1994 2008) % Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? BLAIR HAGUE IDS HOWARD CAMERON 38% 34% 28%
Net satisfaction with opposition leaders (1994 2008) Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? BLAIR CAMERON HOWARD HAGUE DUNCAN SMITH
Leaders (1994 2008) don t knows % Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his job as? CAMERON BROWN HOWARD DUNCAN SMITH BLAIR HAGUE Months from election as leader Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month
Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month Net satisfaction with new PMs Net satisfaction Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? 60 40 20 0 NEW PM MAJOR / BROWN THATCHER / BLAIR Number of month from becoming Prime Minister -20-40 -60 DONATIONS SCANDAL GE 1992 BLACK WEDNESDAY
Base: c.1,000 British adults interviewed 3 rd week of the month 0-10 Net satisfaction with new Governments Q How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country? NEW PM Number of months from new PM Net satisfaction -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 -80 THATCHER / BLAIR GE 1992 MAJOR / BROWN BLACK WEDNESDAY
Issues Facing Britain
Q Issues facing Britain: ch 08 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? Race relations/immigration Crime/Law and Order NHS/Hospitals Economy Education/Schools Defence/Foreign affairs Inflation/Prices Taxation Pollution/Environment Housing Top spontaneous mentions 17% 17% 11% 11% 10% 9% 24% 23% 40% 44% Base: 999 British adults 18+, 13-18 2008
Issues facing Britain (last 2 years) 60 % Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-05 Base: c. 1,000 adults 18+ each month -05-05 Jul-05 Sep-05-05 Jan-06-06 -06 Jul-06-06 Dec-06-07 Jun-07 Aug-07-07 Dec-07-08 Crime Race relations Defence/ Foreign Policy/ terrorism NHS Economy Education/schools Europe Pensions/ Social Security
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ Q 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Issues Facing Britain: Long Term Trends What do you see as the main/other important issues facing Britain today? 2002 2003 2004 2005 Education 2006 Crime/ Law & Order 2007 2008 Race relations/ immigration NHS Defence Economy
Economic Optimism
Q Get worse ch 2008 Don t know Improve 67% 4%7% 22% Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? EOI = -60% Stay the same 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 January 2004 ch 2008 Get worse 67% Stay the same 22% Improve Jan-04 July Jan-05 July June Jan-07-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07-08 7% Base: 999 British adults 18+, 13-18 2008
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 40 months? 30 +28 Index (get better minus get worse) 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 -46-56 -4-60 ( 08) Jan '97 '97 '97 '98 Aug '98 Jan '99 Jun '99 '99 '00 Sep '00 '01 Jul '01 Dec '01 '02 '02 '03 Jul '03 Dec '03 '04 '04 '05 Aug '05 Jan '06 Jun '06 '06 '07 Sep '07 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Economic Optimism Index Q Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? 60 50 40 30 20 10-10 0-20 -30-40 -50-60 -70 January 2004 ch 2008 Stay the same 22% Get worse -67% Improve 7% Jan-04 June July Aug Dec Jan-05 June July Aug Jan-06 June July Dec Jan-07 Jun Jul Aug Dec Jan-08 EOI -60%