The Digital Road to the White House: Insights on the Political Landscape Online October 5 th, 2011 Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. #HWPOTUS
Introduction & Agenda Key Trends Content and Crisis Management Social Networking Key Traffic Drivers and Key Constituencies Essential Takeaways For a copy of the presentation, please email webinars@hitwise.com Join the conversation #HWPOTUS 2
Performance of Candidates Websites Paul resurrecting 2008 strength in digital Top 4 GOP candidates sites captured 69% of Republican candidates share. 3
Performance of Candidates Websites Obama s site gaining traction President Obama s birthday Category has increased its market share 281% since January 11. 4
Performance of Candidates Websites Bachmann s share in decline; Cain and Romney gaining 5
Performance in Key Caucus & Primary States Despite overall performance, Bachmann shows force in IA LEGEND Size: Visit Share of Traffic from State Color: Index vs. Online Population Over-indexing Parity with online population Under-indexing 4 rolling weeks ending 9/24/11 6 Join the conversation #HWPOTUS
JohnMcCain.com 4 Rolling Weeks Ending 11/1/08 BarackObama.com 4 Rolling Weeks Ending 11/1/08 7
KEY TRENDS: HOW THE LANDSCAPE HAS EVOLVED SINCE 2008 8
Experian Consumer Expectation Index Outlook for very liberal improving; less so for very conservative 9 Source: Simmons DataStream, Simmons National Consumer Study: Experian Consumer Expectation Index
National Consumer Study by Party Affiliation Independents tend to have more extreme fiscal outlook Outlook: Spending less and not optimistic Outlook: Continuing to spend, but not optimistic Outlook: Cautious with spending, but optimistic Outlook: Spending more, taking risks, and optimistic Facing Challenges Financial Nesters Economically Indifferent Fiscally Fit Confident Spenders Democrat 26% 11% 18% 25% 21% Independent 30% 13% 15% 18% 23% Republican 32% 15% 16% 18% 19% Other 29% 8% 23% 21% 19% 10 Source: Simmons NCS/NHCS Spring 2010 2011 Full Year
National Consumer Study by Voter Activity in Last Election Non-voters generally more indifferent 21% 21% 20% 22% 22% 18% 21% 21% 17% 21% 17% 19% 13% 11% 13% 11% 29% 30% 29% 27% Confident Spenders Fiscally Fit Economically Indifferent Financial Nesters Facing Challenges Voted in last US presidential election Did not vote in last US presidential election Voted in the last state elections Did not vote in the last state elections 11 Source: Simmons NCS/NHCS Spring 2010 2011 Full Year
Changes in Web-user Behavior: 2008 vs. 2011 Social continues to become more important 12
Evolution of Social Media Behaviors Facebook is now the largest site online Facebook surpassed Google in market share of visits 13 Join the conversation #HWPOTUS
Profile of Facebook Audience Demographics have evolved more female, older, less affluent Visit Share by Gender Sept. 08 Sept. 11 Visit Share by Age Visit Share by Income 53% 59% 47% 41% 14 *Does not include mobile usage
News and Media Category Growth in digital media consumption; aggregators drove uptick 15
CONTENT AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT: TACTICS AND STRATEGIES TO WIN THE RACE 16
Benchmarking Search Tactics Bachmann & Obama paying for branded search 17
The Evolution of a Crisis Use web-users lexicon to benefit in SEO and SEM 18
The Evolution of a Crisis Track impact of events/ releases on candidate 19
Controlling a crisis Understand how web-users are associating issue with candidate 20
Controlling a crisis Get your own campaign in front of the issue 21
Controlling a crisis Search is key driver; social and email act as disseminators 22
SOCIAL NETWORKING: LEVERAGING BEHAVIORS FOR MOBILIZATION 23
Share of Traffic from Social Networking and Forums Obama and Paul show strength in social 24
Share of Traffic from Social Networking and Forums Bachmann s share slides; debates boosted Paul 25 Join the conversation #HWPOTUS
Share of Traffic from Social Networking and Forums Paul succeeds with money bombs and engagement Money bomb MSNBC/ Politico debate CNN/ Tea Party Debate 26
Volume of Social Conversations about Candidates Paul and Perry were dominant through August 08/15 Flurry of interest post-announcement 04/08 Barack Obama s 50 th birthday 08/08 Michelle Bachmann on the cover of Newsweek Mitt Romney Ron Paul Michele Bachmann Barack Obama Rick Perry 11/08 16/08 Iowa Republican Ron Paul on Presidential The Daily Show Debate 27
Conversations by Channel Twitter shares in sharp peaks in conversation 12000 10000 8000 6000 11/08 Iowa Republican Presidential Debate Twitter drives conversation spikes for Ron Paul 12000 10000 8000 6000 There is a lot of debate surrounding Barack Obama on discussion forums e.g. topix.com 4000 4000 2000 2000 0 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug 0 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug Facebook Twitter Blogs & Forums Facebook Twitter Blogs & Forums 12000 10000 8000 Michele Bachmann has a smaller presence on Facebook than Twitter/ forums 12000 10000 8000 Twitter drives conversation spikes for Rick Perry 6000 6000 4000 4000 2000 2000 0 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug 0 10-Aug 13-Aug 16-Aug Facebook Twitter Blogs & Forums Y-axis represents # of mentions on each channel Facebook Twitter Blogs & Forums 28
Volume of Search Clicks for Variants of Candidates Names The Colbert Bump and Indecision 2012 drive interest 29 Join the conversation #HWPOTUS
Volume of Conversations McCain campaign successfully stopped Obama momentum 6/17 John McCain on offshore drilling Barack Obama John Mccain 1/1/08 2/1/08 3/1/08 4/1/08 5/1/08 6/1/08 7/1/08 8/1/08 01/01/2008 01/02/2008 01/03/2008 01/04/2008 01/05/2008 01/06/2008 01/07/2008 01/08/2008 6/4 Obama selected as Democratic presidential nominee 8/28 Obama s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention 8/29 John McCain announces Sarah Palin as vice president 8/28 ad from John McCain congratulating Barack Obama on historic nomination 30
KEY TRAFFIC DRIVERS: REACHING KEY CONSTITUENCIES 31
Benchmarking Traffic Drivers Obama campaign s strength in community engagement 32
Email Performance Obama campaign s email list proves robust 33 Join the conversation #HWPOTUS
Email Performance Obama campaign gaining traction Father s Day and launch of dinner with Mr. Obama & Mr. Biden contest 34
Reaching Hispanic and Latino Web-users Propensity to visit top aggregators 35
Reaching Floridian Web-users Newspapers blogs capture Floridians traffic 36 Join the conversation #HWPOTUS
Essential Takeaways Challenging consumer sentiment The campaigns focus on jobs and the economy may not speak strongly to unregistered voters and those who didn t vote in the last election, and tend to be more indifferent. Events drive online engagement GOP candidates sites are experiencing large fluctuations in market share driven by event-specific interest, such as the caucuses or even a mention on The Colbert Report. Social gives campaigns the opportunity for engagement, mobilization and getting a quick read on web-users reactions to candidates via Twitter & Facebook. Control the message Web-users develop specific search vocabularies when major events and crises arise; SEM can help candidates intercept visitors & communicate their desired message. GOP candidates are currently heavily reliant on Search for traffic and focus largely on branded terms. As interest in the election grows, there will be a shift into issuesbased searches that can be influenced through online campaigns. 37
For a copy of the presentation, please email webinars@hitwise.com Join the conversation #HWPOTUS