BBVA EAGLEs. Emerging And Growth Leading Economies Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2014 Cross-Country Emerging Markets, BBVA Research March PDF Free Download

BBVA EAGLEs Emerging And Growth Leading Economies Economic Outlook Annual Report 2014 Cross-Country Emerging Markets, BBVA Research March 2014

Index Key takeaways in 2013 Rethinking EAGLEs for the next decade Special Topics EM markets portfolio flows: changing underlying forces The EM Middle-Class revolution will accelerate Are EAGLEs & Nest ready for income transition EM credit deepening: In the search for a healthy path Trends in South-South trade and global value chains

01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 01/13 02/13 03/13 04/13 05/13 06/13 07/13 08/13 09/13 10/13 11/13 12/13 01/14 After a long period of time, the external environment is finally gaining momentum Manufacturing PMIs (2012-14) (simple average for EAGLEs* and G7 groups) Source: Haver 55 54 53 52 Global EAGLEs G7 51 50 49 Expansion / contraction threshold 48 47 46 45

China Philippines Nigeria Indonesia Bangladesh Vietnam Qatar Kazakhstan Peru India Malaysia Colombia Chile Turkey Singapore Iraq Pakistan S.Arabia Hong Kong Australia Thailand Korea Brazil Taiwan Argentina US UK Egypt S.Africa Canada Japan Russia Poland Mexico Germany France Spain Netherlands Iran Italy but local EM drivers disappointed 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 Real GDP growth in 2013 (in %) Source: IMF and BBVA research + + + Estimation / data Forecasts (March 2013) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + - Significant Upward Revision Significant Downward Revision

Rethinking BBVA EAGLEs Before Now Implications Definition of EM Consensus from different sources IMF criteria and groupings Stable and clear criteria A mix of macro and institutions Candidates 45 countries; discretionary exclusion All emerging economies More candidates to be considered Nest threshold Lowest contribution of a G6 economy (one country) Avg contribution of non-g7 developed economies (with GDP > USD 100bn) Extension and stability of the threshold 6

Maintaining our robust methodology Step 1: Estimating GDP level in the next decade Developed Economies Emerging Economies Current GDP Level Current Size ( Initial size matters ) X BBVA Research & IMF forecasts Growth rate (10 yrs) = Potential Growth ( long run dynamics ) GDP Level in 10 years Final Size Step 2: Calculating Incremental GDP Labor Capital Institutions Technology GDP Level in 10 years - Current GDP Level = Incremental GDP 7

but new thresholds broaden the scope in 2014 members BBVA World Economic Groups and Incremental GDP thresholds: 2013-2023 Source: BBVA Research, EAGLEs China, India, Indonesia Russia, Brazil Turkey & México G6 economies average NEST countries Non-G7 developed economies (with GDP > USD 100bn average) Rest of emerging economies USD 490bn Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Thailand, Colombia, Phillippines Malaysia, Irak, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Poland, Iran, Peru South Africa, Chile, Kazkhsthan, Qatar & Argentina USD 157bn Rest of Emerging Markets 8

USD tn USD bn China Nest US India EAGLEs-5* Other EMs Non-G7 DMs G6 Indonesia Russia Brazil Korea Japan Turkey Germany Mexico UK G6 average A bird s eye to EAGLEs contribution Contribution to world growth in the next ten years and current GDP size (2013) (PPP-adj. 2013 USD) Source: BBVA Research, IMF 15 12 9 6 3 30.3% of world growth Increase (2013-23) 13.5% 11.6% 11.4% 9.7% 8.3% 8.0% 7.1% 1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 Increase (2013-23) 0 1500 3 6 9 12 15 18 2013-2023 2013 Current Size (2013) 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2013-2023 2013 Current Size (2013) China and India play in another league The rest of the EAGLE`s are consolidating over time 9

S.Arabia Nigeria Taiwan Thailand France Australia Colombia Spain Canada Philippines Malaysia Iraq Vietnam Pakistan Bangladesh Poland Italy Egypt Iran Peru S.Africa Chile Kazakhstan Qatar Argentina Non-G7 DMs and the new list of Nest members Contribution to world growth 2013-2023 and current GDP size (2013 USD bn and 2013 USD PPP adjusted) Source: BBVA Research, IMF 600 300 Increase (2013-23) 0 300 600 900 Current Size (2013) 1200 1500 1800 2100 2013-2023 2013 2400 10

EAGLE s contribution growth map Regional contribution to world growth in the next ten years (%) Source: BBVA Research, IMF Eastern Europe 6.2% The EAGLE s & Nest are geographicaly balanced Latin America 6.9% North America 12.5% Western Europe 7.2% Africa 5.7% Middle East 4.1% Japan 1.7% Asia exjapan 54.7% G7 Non-G7 Developed Eagles Nest Other Emerging Oceania 1.1% 11

with a bias to the Asia-Pacific region Regional contribution to world growth in the next ten years (%) Source: BBVA Research, IMF Western Europe 7.2% Africa 5.7% Eastern Europe 6.2% Middle East 4.1% - North America 12.5% Japan 1.7% Asia exjapan 54.7% Oceania 1.1% Latin America 6.9% The center of gravity is moving to the Asia Pacific Region (77%) 12

EM Portfolio Flows: changing underlying forces 4 3 2 1 0 Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (2012-2014) (median flows and contributions, flows to total assets) Source: BBVA Research and EPFR and IMF Global push factors have been the dominant force driving portfolio flows to EM -1-2 -3 Local Global/Regional -4 2012 2013 2014 but Local and Regional pull factors are becoming more relevant Global push factors Local pull factors Risk On (Draghi + QE3) 60% 40% 40% Risk Off Tapering Adjustment Geopolitics 40% 40% 60% 40% 40% 40% 40% 60% 60% 60%

FED Tapering Draghi & QE3 EM Portfolio Flows: with limited room to the downside Portfolio Flows to Emerging Markets (2012-2014) (cumulative from 2005) Source: BBVA Research, EPFR and IMF 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 -200 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ultra loose Monetary Policy in western countries ( push ) and EM atractiveness ( pull ) prompted excess flows into Emerging Markets which sharply corrected with the FED announcement of the Tapering We have already corrected previous excesses entering into the Under-shooting area

The EM Middle class revolution will accelerate and poverty will drop significantly Population by GDP pc in EM (1980-2025) (Eagles and Nest countries) Source: BBVA Research Millions of people 5500 Slow Motion 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Fast Track Middle Classes will continue in Fast Track overcoming Poverty, Poor and Low income Classes!!! 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 The Revolution of EM Middle Class is accelerating reaching near 3bn people. Some of them will jump faster joining the affluent classes For the first time Poverty drop below Middle Classes Affluent Medium Middle Class Poor and Low Income High Middle Class Low Middle Class 16

The EM Middle class revolution will accelerate and poverty will drop significantly Change of population by GDP pc: 2013 to 2025 (millions of people by countries and Groups) Source: BBVA Research 800 600 400 200 0-200 -400-600 63 167 *EAGLE s 5: Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey and Mexico 68 219 China India EAGLEs-5* Nest G7 Affluent Medium Middle-Class Poor&Low Income High Middle-Class Low Middle-Class TOTAL 37 New 195 mln Rich People in Eagles & Nest countries New 1100 mln Middle Class living in EAGLE s countries Nest will add 255 mln new Middle Class Eagles & Nest reducing poverty by 1000 mln 17

G7 average Korea Russia Turkey Mexico Brazil China Indonesia India Qatar Poland Argentina Malaysia Chile Kazakhstan Iran Peru Thailand Colombia South Africa Iraq Egypt Philippines Vietnam Nigeria Pakistan Bangladesh in some places more than in others (EM Middle Class heterogeneity) Population by GDP pc: 2013 (millions of people by countries and Groups) Source: BBVA Research 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Affluent High Middle-Class Medium Middle-Class Low Middle-Class Poor&Low Income DMs EAGLEs Nest 18

Are EAGLE s and Nest ready for income transition?: different positions, different challenges Drivers Risks Low income Demographics, urbanization, high investment returns, Basic Manufacturing low wages Macro and institutional, social unrest, poverty, basic services, increasing inequality Middle income Tertiarisation, Manufacturing diversification & sophistication, increasing middle classes, financial deepening Factor accumulation moderation, wages rise, need of higher education, technological skills and infrastructure High income Diversification, sophistication, complexity, innovation, welfare systems Population aging, fiscal sustainability, increasing inequality, excessive leverage 2,000-8,000 PPP-adj. USD 10,000-21,000 PPP-adj. USD >22,000 PPP-adj. USD India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam Malaysia, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Poland, Brazil, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Turkey, China, Thailand, Colombia, S. Africa, Peru Qatar, Saudi Arabia Developed Economies 19

2010 2025 2010 2025 2010 2025 2010 2025 2010 2025 Are EAGLE s and Nest ready for income transition?: different positions, different challenges Economic development and population dynamics Source: BBVA Research, UN, World Bank, UNU-WIDER Share of population with 15-64 (%) 75 70 GINI inequality index (latest) 0,7 0,6 65 60 55 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 50 0,1 Low Income Mid.Inc. 1 Mid.Inc. 2 Mid.Inc. 3 G7 0,0 Low Income Mid.Inc. 1 Mid.Inc. 2 Mid.Inc. 3 G7 *Low Income = India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam; Middle Income 1 = China, Thailand, Colombia, South Africa and Peru; Middle Income 2 = Brazil, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico and Turkey; Middle Income 3 = Malaysia, Russia, Argentina, Chie and Poland 20

GDP per capita (2013) (natural logs of PPP-adj. USD) Are EAGLE s and Nest ready for income transition?: policy room to change development paths GDP per capita and Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) in selected economies Source: BBVA Research, WEF 12 Qatar 11 10 Argentina Mexico Brazil Russia Iran Germany Australia Canada France UK Netherlands Italy Spain US Korea Poland S.Arabia Japan Chile Turkey Malaysia 9 8 7 Pakistan Egypt Nigeria Bangladesh Colombia Vietnam Peru Philipp. India Thailand Kazakhstan S.Africa China Indonesia EAGLEs Nest G7 Other DMs 6 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Global Competitiveness Index (2013-2014) (from 1 to 7) 21

Bangladesh Nigeria Pakistan Vietnam India Philippines Indonesia Egypt China Thailand Colombia S.Africa Peru Brazil Iran Kazakhstan Mexico Turkey Malaysia Russia Argentina Chile Poland S.Arabia Qatar Italy France Japan UK Germany Canada US Are EAGLE s and Nest ready for income transition?: infrastructure will play a crucial role Quality of overall infrastructure (1-7) in EAGLEs, Nest and G7 countries (2013-2014) Source: BBVA Research, WEF 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Low-income Middle-income H-I G7 H-I = High income countries; no data available for Iraq; discontinuous lines represent group averages 22

Credit to private sector (%GDP) and Credit Deepening will help to finance development as long as it follows a healthy path Credit to the private sector and GDP per capita (2013) (credit to GDP and GDP per capita PPP adjusted) Source: BBVA Research and IMF 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Emerging Developed 0 7,5 8,0 8,5 9,0 9,5 10,0 10,5 11,0 11,5 GDP per capita (natural logs) Note: the trend represents long-term relation between GDP per capita and the ratio of credit regardless of other variables which play a relevant in our model; the size of the bubbles are proportional to the absolute value of GDP 23

Trends in South-South trade and Global Value Chains (GVCs): South-South trade on the rise Distribution of world exports according to origin and destination (% of total) Source: BBVA Research, IMF/DOTS 1980s-90s Present North - North 61% North-South 17% North - North 40% North-South 20% South - North 16% South - South 6% South - North 24% South - South 15% Note: 1980s-90s corresponds to the 1980-1999 average and Present to the 2010-2012 average 24

Trends in South-South trade and GVCs: gravitating around the Asian Factory South-South trade flows by regions (USD bn) (2012) Source: BBVA Research, IMF/DOTS Total South-South Trade: 2.92 tn 24 354 28 Rapid economic growth of Southern countries 37 217 69 573 Further progress in trade liberalization 12 0 12 Intra Trade Exports Imports 52 35 111 60 99 44 Development of global value chains Africa M.East EM Europe EM Asia Latam 25

Trends in South-South trade and GVCs: countries should pursuit VA gains Exports by regional trade network : 2000 & 2009 (gross value and value added basis, tn USD) Source: BBVA Research, OECD 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.6 1.1 1.2 0.4 5.2 2.2 2.5 1,6 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.9 0.3 3.8 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 2000 2009 Change 2000 2009 Change Gross value Value added South -> South South -> North North -> South North -> North Increase domestic connectivity with other activities Increase value retention drain through foreign inputs or imports of final products Increase diversification in commodities and manufacturers Upgrade technological content most of them merely assemblers

China US EU-28 India ASEAN Mercosur Pacific Alliance G6 average GCC* Trends in South-South trade and GVCs: strategic alliances can help Current GDP size and expected change in the next decade (PPP-adj. 2013 USD) Source: BBVA Research, IMF 27 24 21 18 2013-2023 2013 15 12 9 6 3 0 27

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BBVA EAGLEs. Emerging And Growth Leading Economies Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2014 Cross-Country Emerging Markets, BBVA Research March 2014