0 Get informed. Seize challenges. Engage with the future. The shape of things to come: Higher education global trends and Emerging opportunities to 2020 www.aiec.idp.com 1
0 Research Topic Forecast the landscape for the global tertiary education sector in 2020 by studying demographic and economic driers of demand Tertiary enrolments (2009, 000s) Vietnam, 1,806 Spain, 1,821 Nigeria, 1,917 Italy, 2,032 Venezuela, 2,168 Poland, 2,174, 2,201, 2,439 UK, 2,447 Thailand, 2,447 Egypt, 2,616 Mexico, 2,759 Philippines, 2,761, 2,831 Turkey, 2,979, 3,255 Other shortlisted countries, 17,412, 29,662 US, 19,372 Iran, 3,411, 3,908 Indonesia, 4,948, 6,152 Russia, 9,441 India, 19,058 Source: UNESCO, Oxford Economics www.aiec.idp.com 2
0 Outbound mobile students by origin market (2009, 000s) Other shortlisted countries, 403, 568 Mexico, 31 Romania, 31 UK, 32, 32 Nigeria, 34 Saudi Arabia, 34 Hong Kong, 34 Greece, 35 Pakistan, 37 Indonesia, 39 Uzbekistan, 39 Poland, 40 Iran, 44 Belarus, 44, 45, 46, 47 Vietnam, 50 Italy, 54 Morocco, 54 US, 55 Source: UNECO, OECD, Oxford Economics Malaysia, 58 Russia, 62 Turkey, 72, 68 Kazakhstan, 67 India, 211, 127, 105 60% of inbound students go to United States United Kingdom Russia Other regional destinations South Africa Malaysia www.aiec.idp.com 3
0 Inbound and outbound mobile tertiary students (2009) India Kazakhstan Turkey Morocco Vietnam Iran Uzbekistan Belarus Indonesia Mexico Zimbabwe Hong Kong Nepal Poland Bangladesh Romania Venezuela Saudi Arabia Greece Thailand Philippines Mauritius Ghana Ireland Malaysia Italy Jordan Egypt UAE Switzerland Spain Russia UK US Inbound Outbound -700-500 -300-100 100 300 500 700 Source: OECD, Oxford Economics 000s International research collaborations 1. Switzerland 2. Belgium 3. Sweden 4. Netherlands 5. 6. 7. 8. UK 9. 10. Italy www.aiec.idp.com 4
0 Demographic driers Positie correlation between global uniersity aged population and tertiary enrolments Outlook for 18-22 year olds is stable Global growth in tertiary enrolments will slow from 5% per annum to about 1.4% per annum There is a stable propensity to study abroad Tertiary age (18-22) population (2020, 000s) UK, 3,679 Other shortlisted countries, 50,736 Russia, 6,570 Vietnam, 6,589 Egypt, 7,310 Mexico, 10,302 Iraq, 3,820, 4,031 Colombia, 4,271 Thailand, 4,745 South Africa, 4,826 Kenya, 5,007 Iran, 5,523, 5,832 Turkey, 6,312 India, 118,864 Philippines, 10,559 Ethiopia, 10,816 Bangladesh, 15,490, 16,725, 91,177 Nigeria, 19,406 Pakistan, 19,482 Indonesia, 20,336 US, 21,658 Source: UN Population Diision, Oxford Economics www.aiec.idp.com 5
Gross tertiary enrolment ratio 0 Tertiary age (18-22) population growth (2011-2020, 000s) Russia Iran Vietnam Poland Uzbekistan Indonesia Kazakhstan Romania Thailand UK Morocco Belarus Italy South Africa Spain Egypt Turkey Hong Kong Sri Lanka Greece Saudi Arabia Switzerland Trinidad & Tobago Botswana Ireland Mauritius US Zimbabwe UAE Mexico Venezuela Israel Colombia Jordan Malaysia Ghana Nepal Bangladesh Angola Kenya Iraq Pakistan Philippines Ethiopia India Nigeria -25,000-20,000-15,000-10,000-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Source: UN Population Diision, Oxford Economics 000s Economic driers: GDP per capita (PPP) PPP GDP per capita and tertiary enrolment ratio (2009) 120% 100% y = 0.1693ln(x) - 1.1472 R² = 0.5378 80% Greece US 60% 40% UAE Mexico & Malaysia 20% Trinidad & Tobago Botswana 0% $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 Nominal PPP US$ GDP per capita Source: Haer Analytics, Oxford Economics, UNESCO www.aiec.idp.com 6
0 PPP GDP per capita (2011 and 2020) Zimbabwe Ethiopia Nepal Kenya Bangladesh Nigeria Pakistan Ghana Vietnam Uzbekistan India Philippines Indonesia Jordan Morocco Iraq Angola Sri Lanka Egypt Thailand Iran Colombia South Africa 2011 2020 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 Source: Oxford Economics Real US$ PPP GDP per capita (2005 prices) Tertiary enrolment growth Tertiary enrolment growth (2011-2020, 000s) Russia Poland Belarus Romania Vietnam UK Kazakhstan Italy Greece Spain Hong Kong Trinidad & Tobago Botswana Mauritius Ireland Switzerland Uzbekistan UAE Israel Sri Lanka Zimbabwe Kenya Ghana Morocco Thailand Jordan Iran Saudi Arabia Angola Venezuela Nepal Egypt South Africa US Malaysia Pakistan Iraq Colombia Mexico Ethiopia Turkey Bangladesh Philippines Nigeria Indonesia India -4,000-2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Source: Oxford Economics 000s www.aiec.idp.com 7
0 Highest growth in tertiary enrolments 2002-2010 1. 2. India 3. United States 4. 5. Iran 2011-2020 1. India 2. 3. 4. Indonesia 5. Nigeria Outward student mobility Outbound mobile students by originmarket growth (2011-2020, 000s) Greece Poland Romania Belarus Russia Iran Italy Spain Morocco Hong Kong Switzerland Ireland Kenya Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela Kazakhstan Ghana Thailand Mauritius Uzbekistan Ethiopia Botswana Jordan Israel South Africa Colombia UAE Bangladesh US Egypt Vietnam UK Mexico Philippines Sri Lanka Indonesia Angola Zimbabwe Iraq Turkey Saudi Arabia Pakistan Nepal Malaysia Nigeria India -20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Source: Oxford Economics 000s www.aiec.idp.com 8
0 Student mobility growth market comparison 2002-2009 1. 2. India 3. 4. Kazakhstan 5. 2010-2020 1. India 2. Nigeria 3. Malaysia 4. Nepal 5. Pakistan Inbound student mobility Inbound mobile students by destination market growth (2011-20,000s) Switzerland Italy Ireland Poland Turkey Russian Federation Korea Spain United States United Kingdom -20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Oxford Economics 000s * includes shortlisted country origin markets only www.aiec.idp.com 9
0 Transnational education Continued shift to East Asia South-south transfer Niche programmes Research collaboration Correlation between international collaboration and number of citations US and will make up majority of collaborations Collaborations will continue to be bottom-up www.aiec.idp.com 10
0 Summary of findings Opportunities continuing to moe east Traditional destinations will face competition from countries in the Middle East and East Asia Deelopment in South Asia www.aiec.idp.com 11