Senate Committee Musical Chairs August 15, 2018
Key Retiring Committee Seniority over Sitting Chair/Ranking Member Viewed as Seat Republicans Will Most Likely Retain Viewed as Potentially At Risk Republican Seat Viewed as Republican Seat at Risk Viewed as Seat Democrats Will Most Likely Retain Viewed as Potentially At Risk Democratic Seat Viewed as Democratic Seat at Risk
Notes The Senate Republican leader is not term-limited; Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will likely remain majority leader. The only member of Senate GOP leadership who is currently term-limited is Republican Whip John Cornyn (R-TX). Republicans have term limits of six years as chairman and six years as ranking member. Republican members can only use seniority to bump sitting chairs/ranking members when the control of the Senate switches parties. Committee leadership for the Senate Aging; Agriculture; Appropriations; Banking; Environment and Public Works (EPW); Health Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP); Indian Affairs; Intelligence; Rules; and Veterans Affairs Committees are unlikely to change.
Notes Current Armed Services Committee (SASC) Chairman John McCain (R-AZ) continues to receive treatment for brain cancer in Arizona. Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) has served as acting chairman and is likely to continue to do so in Senator McCain s absence. If Republicans lose control of the Senate, Senator McCain would lose his top spot on the committee because he already has six years as ranking member. In the unlikely scenario that Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) does not take over the Finance Committee, Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID), who currently serves as Chairman of the Banking Committee, could take over the Finance Committee. If he does that, Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) could assume Republican leadership of the Banking Committee. On the Republican side of the Commerce Committee, there is a rumor circulating that Senator John Thune (R-SD) will take Senator Cornyn s leadership position; if he does that, Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) would assume Republican leadership of the committee. If Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) loses his re-election campaign, Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) would likely opt to serve as top Democrat on the Commerce Committee.
Notes If Republicans lose control of the Senate, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) would lose her top stop on the Energy and Natural Resources (ENR) Committee because she already has six years as ranking member. Republican leadership of the committee would likely then go to Senator John Barrasso (R-WY). If Senator Cantwell moves to the top spot on the Commerce Committee, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), could assume Democratic leadership of the ENR Committee. If Senator Sanders becomes ENR Ranking Member, because of other committee leadership positions held by more senior members of the Budget Committee, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) could assume Democratic leadership of the Budget Committee. If Republicans lose control of the Senate and Senator Barrasso assumes Republican leadership of the ENR Committee, then Republican leadership of the EPW Committee would go to Senator Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) because Senator Inhofe is already term limited as both chair and ranking member of the committee.
Notes With Senator Orrin Hatch s (R-UT) retirement, Republican leadership of the Finance Committee will change. Senator Grassley will likely leave his Judiciary Committee chairmanship to assume Finance. He is term limited in the ranking member position, but has two remaining years to serve as chair of the committee. If he does not, Senator Crapo could become chairman of Finance. With Senator Bob Corker s (R-TN) retirement, Republican leadership of the Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) will change. It is likely to go to Senator James Risch (R-ID). If it does, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) will likely assume Republican leadership of Small Business. If Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) loses his re-election, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) could become Democratic leader of the committee. If that happens, Democratic leadership of Small Business could go to Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D- NH).
Notes If Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO) loses her re-election, Senators Tom Carper (D-DE), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), or Gary Peters (D-MI) could become Democratic leader of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC). If Senator Carper opts to lead his Democratic colleagues on HSGAC, Senator Cardin could become Democratic leader of EPW. More likely, Senator Heitkamp would become Democratic leader of HSGAC, unless she loses her re-election, at which point it would go to Senator Peters. Assuming Senator Grassley claims his last two years as chair of Finance, Republican leadership of Judiciary will go to Senator Lindsey Graham (R- SC). Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) is likely to remain Democratic leader of Veterans Affairs unless he reclaims Indian Affairs. If he does that, Democratic leadership of Veterans Affairs would fall to Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), given other members committee leadership elsewhere. Current projections from Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report, and Sabato s Crystal Ball at the end of this document.
Aging Susan Collins (R-ME), Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Tim Scott (R-SC) Thom Tillis (R-NC) Bob Corker (R-TN) Richard Burr (R-NC) Marco Rubio (R-FL) Deb Fischer (R-NE) Robert Casey (D-PA), Ranking Member Bill Nelson (D-FL) (Commerce) Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) Doug Jones (D-AL)
Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Pat Roberts (R-KS), Chairman Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (Leadership) John Boozman (R-AR) John Hoeven (R-ND) Joni Ernst (R-IA) Chuck Grassley (R-IA) John Thune (R-SD) Steve Daines (R-MT) David Perdue (R-GA) Deb Fischer (R-NE) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Ranking Member Patrick Leahy (D-VT) (Appropriations) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) Michael Bennet (D-CO) Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Robert Casey (D-PA) Tina Smith (D-MN)
Appropriations Richard Shelby (R-AL), Chairman Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (Leadership) Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Susan Collins (R-ME) Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Roy Blunt (R-MO) Jerry Moran (R-KS) John Hoeven (R-ND) John Boozman (R-AR) Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) James Lankford (R-OK) Steve Daines (R-MT) John Kennedy (R-LA) Marco Rubio (R-FL) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Vice Chairman Patty Murray (D-WA) Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) Dick Durbin (D-IL) Jack Reed (D-RI) Jon Tester (D-MT) Tom Udall (D-NM) Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Jeff Merkley (D-OR) Chris Coons (D-DE) Brian Schatz (D-HI) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Chris Murphy (D-CT) Joe Manchin (D-WV) Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
Armed Services John McCain (R-AZ), Chairman James Inhofe (R-OK) Roger Wicker (R-MS) Deb Fischer (R-NE) Tom Cotton (R-AR) Mike Rounds (R-SD) Joni Ernst (R-IA) Thom Tillis (R-NC) Dan Sullivan (R-AK) David Perdue (R-GA) Ted Cruz (R-TX) Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Ben Sasse (R-NE) Tim Scott (R-SC) Jack Reed, Ranking Member Bill Nelson (D-FL) Claire McCaskill D-MO) Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Mazie Hirono (D-HI) Tim Kaine (D-VA) Angus King I-ME) Martin Heinrich (D-NM) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Gary Peters (D-MI)
Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Mike Crapo (R-ID), Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) (Appropriations) Bob Corker (R-TN) Pat Toomey (R-PA) Dean Heller (R-NV) Tim Scott (R-SC) Ben Sasse (R-NE) Tom Cotton (R-AR) Mike Rounds (R-SD) David Perdue (R-GA) Thom Tillis (R-NC) John Kennedy (R-LA) Jerry Moran (R-KS) Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-RI) (Armed Services) Robert Menendez (D-NJ) (Foreign Relations) Jon Tester (D-MT) Mark Warner (D-VA) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Brian Schatz (D-HI) Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) Doug Jones (D-AL)
Budget Michael Enzi (R-WY), Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) (Judiciary) Mike Crapo (R-ID) Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Pat Toomey (R-PA) Ron Johnson (R-WI) Bob Corker (R-TN) David Perdue (R-GA) Cory Gardner (R-CO) John Kennedy (R-LA) John Boozman (R-AR) Tom Cotton (R-AR) Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA) (HELP) Ron Wyden (D-OR) (Finance) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) (Agriculture) Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Mark Warner (D-VA) Jeff Merkley (D-OR) Tim Kaine (D-VA) Angus King (I-ME) Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Commerce, Science, and Transportation John Thune (R-SD), Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) Roy Blunt (R-MO) Ted Cruz (R-TX) Deb Fischer (R-NE) Jerry Moran (R-KS) Dan Sullivan (R-AK) Dean Heller (R-NV) James Inhofe (R-OK) Mike Lee (R-UT) Ron Johnson (R-WI) Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) Cory Gardner (R-CO) Todd Young (R-IN) Bill Nelson (D-FL), Ranking Member Maria Cantwell (D-WA) Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) Brian Schatz (D-HI) Ed Markey (D-MA) Tom Udall (D-NM) Gary Peters (D-MI) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) Maggie Hassan (D-NH) Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) Jon Tester (D-MT) (VA)
Energy and Natural Resources Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY) James Risch (R-ID) Mike Lee (R-UT) Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Steve Daines (R-MT) Cory Gardner (R-CO) Lamar Alexander (R-TN) John Hoeven (R-ND) Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Rob Portman (R-OH) Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) (Finance) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Joe Manchin (D-WV) Martin Heinrich (D-NM) Mazie Hirono (D-HI) Angus King (I-ME) Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) Tina Smith (D-MN)
Environment and Public Works John Barrasso (R-WY), Chairman James Inhofe (R-OK) (Term Limited) Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) John Boozman (R-AR) Roger Wicker (R-MS) Deb Fischer (R-NE) Jerry Moran (R-KS) Mike Rounds (R-SD) Joni Ernst (R-IA) Dan Sullivan (R-AK) Richard Shelby (R-AL) Tom Carper (D-DE), Ranking Member Ben Cardin (D-MD) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Jeff Merkley (D-OR) Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) Cory Booker (D-NJ) Ed Markey (D-MA) Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
Ethics Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Chairman Pat Roberts (R-KS) James Risch (R-ID) Chris Coons (D-DE), Vice Chairman Brian Schatz (D-HI) Jeanne Shaheen (D-H)
Finance Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) (Judiciary) Mike Crapo (R-ID) Pat Roberts (R-KS) Michael Enzi (R-WY) John Cornyn (R-TX) John Thune (R-SD) Richard Burr (R-NC) Johnny Isakson (R-GA) Rob Portman (R-OH) Pat Toomey (R-PA) Dean Heller (R-NV) Tim Scott (R-SC) Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Ron Wyden (D-OR), Ranking Member Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) Maria Cantwell (D-WA) Bill Nelson (D-FL) Robert Menendez (D-NJ) Tom Carper (D-DE) Ben Cardin (D-MD) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Michael Bennet (D-CO) Robert Casey (D-PA) Mark Warner (D-VA) Claire McCaskill (D-MO) Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Foreign Relations Bob Corker (R-TN), Chairman James Risch (R-ID) Marco Rubio (R-FL) Ron Johnson (R-WI) Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Cory Gardner (R-CO) Todd Young (R-IN) John Barrasso (R-WY) Johnny Isakson (R-GA) Rob Portman (R-OH) Rand Paul (R-KY) Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Ranking Member Ben Cardin (D-MD) Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Chris Coons (D-DE) Tom Udall (D-NM) Chris Murphy (D-CT) Tim Kaine (D-VA) Ed Markey (D-MA) Jeff Merkley (D-OR) Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Chairman Michael Enzi (R-WY) (Budget) Richard Burr (R-NC) Johnny Isakson (R-GA) Rand Paul (R-KY) Susan Collins (R-ME) Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Todd Young (R-IN) Orrin Hatch (R-UT) Pat Roberts (R-KS) Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) Tim Scott (R-SC) Patty Murray (D-WA), Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Robert Casey (D-PA) Michael Bennet (D-CO) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Chris Murphy (D-CT) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Tim Kaine (D-VA) Maggie Hassan (D-NH) Tina Smith (D-MN) Doug Jones (D-AL)
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Ron Johnson (R-WI), Chairman John McCain (R-AZ) (Armed Services) Rob Portman (R-OH) RandPaul (R-KY) James Lankford (R-OK) Michael Enzi (R-WY) John Hoeven (R-ND) Steve Daines (R-MT) Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Ranking Member Tom Carper (D-DE) (EPW) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Gary Peters (D-MI) Maggie Hassan (D-NH) Kamala Harris (D-CA) Doug Jones (D-AL)
Indian Affairs John Hoeven (R-ND), Chairman John Barrasso (R-WY) (EPW) John McCain (R-AZ) (Armed Services) Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) (ENR) James Lankford (R-OK) Steve Daines (R-MT) Mike Crapo (R-ID) Jerry Moran (R-KS) Tom Udall (D-NM), Vice Chairman Maria Cantwell (D-WA) (ENR) Jon Tester (D-MT) (VA) Brian Schatz (D-HI) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) Tina Smith (D-MN)
Intelligence Richard Burr (R-NC), Chairman James Risch (R-ID) Marco Rubio (R-FL) Susan Collins (R-ME) Roy Blunt (R-MO) James Lankford (R-OK) Tom Cotton (R-AR) John Cornyn (R-TX) Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Ex Officio John McCain (R-AZ), Ex Officio Mark Warner (D-VA), Vice Chairman Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) (Judiciary) Ron Wyden (D-OR) (Finance) Martin Heinrich (D-NM) Angus King (I-ME) Joe Manchin (D-WV) Kamala Harris (D-CA) Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Ex Officio Jack Reed (D-RI), Ex Officio
Judiciary Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) (Finance) Lindsey Graham (R-SC) John Cornyn (R-TX) Mike Lee (R-UT) Ted Cruz (R-TX) Ben Sasse (R-NE) Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Mike Crapo (R-ID) Thom Tillis (R-NC) John Kennedy (R-LA) Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Ranking Member Patrick Leahy (D-VT) (Appropriations) Dick Durbin (D-IL) Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) Chris Coons (D-DE) Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) Mazie Hirono (D-HI) Cory Booker (D-NJ) Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Rules and Administration Roy Blunt (R-MO), Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) (Appropriations) Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (Leadership) Lamar Alexander (R-TN) (HELP) Pat Roberts (R-KS) (Agriculture) Ted Cruz (R-TX) Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) Roger Wicker (R-MS) Deb Fischer (R-NE) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Ranking Member Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) (Judiciary) Chuck Schumer (D-NY) (Leadership) Dick Durbin (D-IL) (Leadership) Tom Udall (D-NM) (Indian Affairs) Mark Warner (D-VA) (Intelligence) Patrick Leahy (D-VT) (Appropriations) Angus King (I-ME) Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Small Business and Entrepreneurship James Risch (R-ID), Chairman Marco Rubio (R-FL) Rand Paul (R-KY) Tim Scott (R-SC) Joni Ernst (R-IA) JamesInhofe (R-OK) Todd Young (R-IN) Michael Enzi (R-WY) Mike Rounds (R-SD) John Kennedy (R-LA) Ben Cardin (D-MD), Ranking Member Maria Cantwell (D-WA) (ENR) Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Ed Markey (D-MA) Cory Booker (D-NJ) Chris Coons (D-DE) Mazie Hirono (D-HI) Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
Veterans Affairs Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Chairman Jerry Moran (R-KS) John Boozman (R-AZ) Dean Heller (R-NV) Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Mike Rounds (R-SD) Thom Tillis (R-NC) Dan Sullivan (R-AK) Jon Tester (D-MT), Ranking Member Patty Murray (D-WA) (HELP) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (Budget) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) (Banking) Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) Mazie Hirono (D-HI) Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Real Clear Politics
Cook Political Report
Sabato s Crystal Ball