THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE 1946 San FranCisco Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 392-5766 Mervin D. Field, Director Raber1 Heyer, Editor LoS Angeles Office 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Los Angeles 90005 385-5259 Library Survey Research Center University of California Berkeley, California 94720 COPYRIGHT 1969 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATiON BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Rei ease # 639 REAGAN STILL RIDING HIGH IN POPULARITY. LARGE MAJORITY OF PUBLIC SAY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DEFEAT HIM IN 1970 by Mervin D. Field For release TUESDAY, AUGUST 19, 1969 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject t vocation if publication or broadcast takes place b, release date or if contents of report are divulged t persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release 1 While public appraisal of the job that Ronald Reagan is doing as Governor is somewhat less favorabl, than it was earl ier this year, he still maintains a strong positive appeal to this state's voters, Today, twice as many Californians credit him with doing a "good" job as doing a "poor" job. With reference to whom the Democratic gubernatorial nominee might be, a plurality of voters also say they are inc! ined to re-elect Reagan next year. Further, an overwhelming margin of voters, regardless of how they feel about Reagan, think he will be very difficult to beat in the 1970 election. These findings come from the most recent California Poll survey in which a representative sample of 1006 adults reflecting all shades of partisanship in this state was interviewed. This current survey results compared to previous surveys produces this trend: August Feb. May June Think Reagan is doing -- 1969 1969 1968 1967 Good job 39% 42% 30% 41% Fair job 37 36 36 33 Poor job 20 15 30 17 Don't know 4 7 4 9 As can be seen, Reagan's popularity has fluctuated during his term of office which began in Januar) 1967. After the first few months in office, he rated very high in voter esteem as shown in the June 1967 SUI However, the May 1968 measure found that he had lost considerable appeal to this state's voters. Since that the college unrest problem has come to the fore and Reagan's stand on this issue has regained for him a great of support. The Cal ifornia Poll found earlier this year that this single issue was enough to cause a dramatic re surgence in Reagan's appeal. Now it appears that Reagan's firm stand in respect to unrest on the college cam is still the chief contributor to his popularity; however, this is not nowas salientan issueas itwasearlierthis y Six months ago, 50% of the voters said Reagan's handling of the college riots was the thing the} most approved of in his performance. Now, that proportion has dropped to 35%. August February In Reagan's performance, approve of -- 1969 1969 Firm handling of college riots at universities, colleges; control of demonstrators, strikers. 35% 50% Attempts to lower taxes; plans to reduce taxes; tax refund, tax rei ief for homeowners................. 15 11 Efforts to cut government expenditures; balanced the budget; basic fiscal pol icy............. 11 17 (partial tabl e) (MORE) The California Poll was founded In 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political parties and candidates. Its sole purpose is 10 report public opinion accurately and objectively. Financial support for the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusive righr s within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported In its releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed at periodic intervals on election issues and other socially important questions of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state, from different sized communities. and of all age, economic, political, and occupation groups are included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1.000 or more respondents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of not less th~n 600 interviews.
r------.------ The California Poll - page 2 On the negative side, an issue which is becoming an increasingly potent drag to Reagan's populari is taxes. Today, almost one in four people voluntarily mentions some aspect of taxes as a reason for their disapproval. August Febr.uary In Reagan's performance, disapprove of - 1969 1969 Has not reduced taxes; has raised taxes; no tax rei ief for property owners 23% 14% Mental heal th budget cuts........... 16 10 Harsh attitude toward college students, lack of understanding about college students' problems................. 6 6 Proposed cuts in college funds; reduced monies for education at all levels 6 5 (partial table) Next year it is expected that Reagan will seek re-election for a second term as Governor, and tha he will have no serious opposition from any Republican. However, a spirited battle is expected among Democrats to determine who will challenge Reagan at the polls in the November election. As one preliminary measure of Reagan's re-election chances, the California Poll asked its crosssection of voters whether atthispoint in time they were inc! ined to vote for Reagan or not and their appraise of how difficult Democrats will find it in attempting to defeat him next year. A plural ity of voters (47% to 38%) say at this time they would be incl ined to vote for Reagan. Ho~ ever, a large majority of voters (71%) say that the Democrats, without reference to whom his specific opposi might be, would find it either very or fairly difficult to deny Reagan a second term. Even among those who not inclined to vote for Reagan, one-half of them say the Democrats will find it either II very ll or IIfairl y" difficult to defeat him. IISuppose Governor Ronald Reagan were running for re-election. As things stand now, would you be inclined to vote for him for re-election or not?1i Statewide Democrats Repub Iicans Other Yes, would vote for him 47% 25% 78% 35% No, would not 38 58 12 45 Don't know 15 17 10 20 IIS ome people say that the Democrats will find it difficult to beat Governor Reagan in next year's gubernatorial election. Others say it will be rather easy to defeat Reagan. Which of these opinions comes closest to your thinking?1i Inclination to vote for Reagan Statewide Yes No In trying to defeat Reagan, Reagan's opponents wi II find it - Very difficult to defeat him 27% 40% 13% Fairly difficult to defeat him 44 50 37 Fairly easy to defeat him 15 3 28 Very easy to defeat him 6 1 14 No opinion 8 6 8 COPYRIGHT 1969 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION" FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. -30
- - - - - - - - - - - - What things that Governor Reagan has done since he has been in office do you especially (approve) (disapprove) of? ALL VOTERS August Feb. 1969 1969 --- Approve of: Firm handl ing of college riots at universities/ colleges; control of demonstrators/ strikers 35% 50% Attempts to lower taxes; plans to reduce taxes; tax refund/ tax re Iief for homeowners 15 11 Efforts to cut government expenditures; balanced the budget; basic fiscal pol icy Trying to keep campaign promises; keeps his word. 11 5 17 4 Carries through in face of opposition; firm in his convictions. 4 3 Welfare cutbacks; reduction in welfare costs. 3 3 Stand on People1s Park disturbance 3 Proposal to charge tuition at state universities 2 3 Interested in the welfare of the people 2 2 Firm stand on law and order/crime 2 1 Cuts in government jobs; elimination of unnecessary employees. 1 2 Rei ief for flood victims * 3 Doing an excellent job; approve of everything he has done 2 1 Miscellaneous comments 10 8 Nothing favorable mentioned 37 30 (Adds to more than 100% because some people cited more than one thing they approved of.) Disapprove of: Has not reduced taxes; has raised taxes; no tax rei ief for property owners Mental health budget cuts Harsh attitude toward college students/ lack of understanding about college students' problems Proposed cuts in college funds; reduced monies for education at all levels Should crack down more on college rioters/ demonstrators Welfare cut-backs; reduction of aid to needy Campaigned for the presidency; too much running around pol iticking Inability to carry out programs; has not kept campaign promises. Proposal to charge tuition at state universities Cuts in Medi- Cal Stand on People's Park disturbance Handl ing of state income tax revenue/ raise was unnecessary / raised then refunded Indecisive/ procrastinates before taking action. Shotgun approach to problem/ too precipitate/ speaks before thinking Opposition to withholding tax. Reverses his position under pressure; does not follow through. Cuts in government jobs. Doing a poor job; disapprove of everything he has done Miscellaneous comments Nothing unfavorable mentioned (Adds to more than 100% because some people cited more than one thing they disapproved of.) *Less than 1/2 of one percent.
TIE CALIFORNIA Los POLL - - - - - THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE 1946 San FranciSCO Headquarters 145 Montgomery Street San Francisco 94104 392-5766 Mervin O. Field, Director Robert Heyer, Editor Los Angeles Office 3142 Wilshire Boulevard Angeles 90005 385-5259 INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY Dates of interviewing: August 6 - August 10, 1969 Population covered by this survey: Sample design: Number of interviews: Wording of the questions on which this report is based: Representative cross-section of California adult public. The survey interviews are selected in accordance with a probability sample design which provides for random (i.e., non-judgemental) selection of households. Assignments in a particular place are done in clusters with randomly drawn addresses as starting points for each cluster of interviews. For this survey, 260 clusters throughout the state were selected. Each cluster consisted of seven consecutive households, beginning with the designated starting household. Interviewers made up to three calls on every listed address in an attempt to complete an interview. One adult per household was selected for interview on a systematic basis to provide a balance by sex and age. Interviewing was conducted during late afternoon and evening on weekdays, and all day on the week-end. The sample is designed to be self-weighted on all variables of interest, such as area of state, degree or urbanization, political party affiliation, and socio-economic status. Whenever occasional imbalances in key variables occur in the sample due to sampling variability or other factors, corrective weights are applied during the data processing stage to assure that the survey findings reflect a correct weighting of respondents. This survey is based on a sample of 1006 -- 393 Republicans, 506 Democrats, and 107 other. "Do you feel that Governor Ronald Reagan is doing a good job, a fair job, or a poor job as Governor of California?' "What things that Governor Reagan has done since he has been in office do you especially approve of?" "What things that Governor Reagan has done since he has been in office do you especially disapprove of?" "As you know, there wi II be an election for governor next year. Suppose Governor Reagan were running for re-election. As things stand now would you be incl ined to vote for him for re-election or not?" "Some people say that the Democrats will find it difficult to beat Governor Reagan in next year's gubernatorial election. Others say it will be rather easy to defeat Reagan, Which of these opinions Iisted on this card comes closest to your thinking?" See reverse side for answers to some typical questions about the Poll. The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political parties and candidates. lis sole purpose is 10 report public opinion accurately and oblectively. Financial SUppOfl for the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusiye right> within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported in its releases. Representative samples of adulls are interviewed at periodic intervals on election issues".and~~t~el. important questinns of the day. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state, from different sized communities, and of all age, economic, politiea/,. included in the samples. Major surveys are made with samples of 1.000 or more respondents. Interim surveys sometimes are made with smaller samples of no.., i"
- - - - - - - - - - -:: - iiiiiiiillif"f...,.,~ NOTE TO EDITORS: Following are answers to some questions frequently asked about The California Poll. These may be hel pful for your own background or to answer questions put to you about The Poll. Any or all of this may be publ ished at your option. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA POLL Q. Who runs The California Poll? A. The Cal ifornia Poll is owned and operated by Field Research Corporation, an independent national publ ic opinion and marketing research agency with headquarters in San Francisco. The Poll was founded in 1946 and has been publ ished continuously since that time. The Poll is non-partisan. Q. Who pays for the surveys conducted by The Cal ifornia Poll? A. The cost of operating The California Poll is underwritten by 13 newspapers and four television stations in California. Each one pays an annual fee for exclusive publication or broadcast rights in its area. The Poll does not accept fees from any candidates, political parties, or individua Is who have any interest in the data being publ ished. Its sole purpose is to report public opinion objectively and accurately. Q. How are The Cal ifornia Poll IS surveys conducted? A. The surveys are made by means of personal interviews conducted by tra.ined interviewers using printed questionnaires. Survey respondents are selected by scientific methods to assure that an accurate cross section of adul tsin all wal ks of Iife throughout the state and representing all shades of political belief are included in their proper proportion in the sample. Q. Are the same people interviewed in each survey? A. No. Fresh samples of respondents are drawn for each survey. (Panels of respondents re-interviewed at intervals are also a valid and valuable research technique for certain special purposes, but they are seldom used for surveys of the type conducted by The Cal ifornia Poll.) Q. How are the samples selected and how many people are interviewed? A. Samples are drawn by probabil ity sampling methods which give each ho~sehold in the state an equal chance of being called on for an interview. Within households, the interviewers select adult respondents to fit sex and age quotas to match the state population as a whole. Samples vary in size between 500 and 1000 respondents per survey. Q. Do people give honest answers to surveys of this type-? A. In countless surveys of this type we have found that people are remarkably candid in talking to our interviewers, and wherever we have an opportunity to test the val idity of their answers (for example, in an election) there is good evidence that they have actually given us their true opinions. We recognize that without publ ic confidence surveys of this kind would be impossible and so we guarantee each respondent complete anonymity. After a percentage of the interviews have been val idated by supervisors, the data are compi led only as statistical summaries.. Names of survey respondents are never released for sales or political use. Q. Are sample surveys of this type accurate? A. Time after time it has been demonstrated that carefully designed samples of this size are very reliable. Wherever the -results can be checked against known data, they have proved to be accurate with relatively narrow tolerance limits. For example, a survey of 1000 respondents typically will be accurate within plus or minus approximately 4.5 percentage points, and a survey of 500 respondents has a tolerance range of about 6.7 percentage points. Thousands of such surveys are done each year for business and government and great reliance is put on their findings.. See reverse side for specific information about ] [ the current survey.