Prophetic City: Houston on the Cusp of a Changing America. Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 36 Years of Houston Surveys Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg TACA 63rd Annual Meeting 15 June 2017
The Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2017) Thirty-six years of systematic interviews with successive representative samples of Harris County residents, focused on three central issues: 2
Two contrasting economic eras (1949 to 1979 and 1980 to 2015) Percent increase in before-tax income The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity. 110% 116% 100% 111% 114% 99% 86% The past 36 years have been marked by growing income inequalities. 50% 2.07% 7.5% 13.56% 25.31% 53.54% 74.55% -10% Bottom 20% Second 20% Middle 20% Fourth 20% Top 20% Top 5% The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 36 years (1980-2015) 3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth and the Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted to 2015 dollar.
Changes in the education requirements for jobs across America (1970-2020) 100% 50% 7 10 11 11 9 12 19 21 24 8 10 12 40 19 17 18 Master's degree or better Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some college High school diploma Less than high school 0% 32 34 30 24 10 11 12 1973 (91 million) 1992 (129 million) 2010 (143 million) 2020 (164 million) By 2020, 65% of all American jobs will require education beyond high school. Year and Number of Available Jobs 4 Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2014. "Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020." Retrieved from cew.georgetown.edu/recovery2020, on July 27, 2015.
U.S. States ranked by percent adults aged 25+ with high school diplomas (ACS, 2010-12) Montana (1) Minnesota (2) Wyoming (3) Alaska (4) New Hampshire Vermont (6) Iowa (7) Maine (7) North Dakota (9) Utah (10) 92.2% 92.1% 92.0% 91.6% 91.6% 91.5% 91.0% 91.0% 90.9% 90.7% Harris County Texas (50) United States 78.6% 81.1% 85.9% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 2010-2012 three-year estimates for population aged 25 years and over.
U.S. States ranked by percent adults aged 25+ with college degree or more (ACS, 2010-2012) Massachusetts (1) Colorado (2) Maryland (3) Connecticut (4) New Jersey (5) Virginia (6) Vermont (7) New Hampshire New York (9) Minnesota (10) 39.2% 36.8% 36.6% 36.3% 35.8% 34.9% 34.8% 33.7% 33.0% 32.6% Harris County Texas (30) United States 28.2% 26.4% 28.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 2010-2012 three-year estimates for population aged 25 years and over.
The fates of all eighth graders in the Houston region through their next 11 years (2004-2015) 100% 90% 100% 94% Fall 2004 Cohort 80% 70% 68% 60% 54% 50% 40% 30% 20% 21% 10% 0% 8th Grade (N=69,847) High School Enrollee (N=65,511) High School Diploma (N=47,539) Post-Secondary Enrollee (N=37,806) Post-Secondary Credential (N=14,945) 7 Source: TEA Division of Performance Reporting for Region 4, Texas Academic Performance Reports 2014-15 District Attendance and Postsecondary Readiness Report.
The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010) 12 10 8 From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all the immigrants who came to American shores came from Europe. After reform of the restrictive laws in 1965, fully 88% of all the new immigrants have been non-europeans. 8.8 Millions of immigrants 10.5 6 1965 Hart-Celler Act 4 2 0 0.1 1924 National Origins Quota Act 1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 0.5 9 Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Cities with large numbers of foreign born residents (2010-2014) Boston San Francisco Chicago New York City Washington D.C. Dallas Los Angeles Atlanta San Diego Houston 10 Source: ACS 2010-2014 Five-Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research Miami
Demographic changes in Harris County by decade (1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and ACS 2011-15) 5.0 4.5 4.0 7.7% 7.9% Asians POPULATION IN MILLIONS 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.1% 15.5% 19.7% 62.7% 4.1% 22.7% 19.1% 54.0% 6.7% 32.9% 18.2% 42.1% 40.8% 18.4% 33.0% 41.6% Latinos 18.9% Blacks 31.7% Anglos 0.0 1980 (N=2,409,547) 1990 (N=2,818,199) 2000 (N=3,400,578) 2010 (N=4,092,459) 2015 (N=4,356,362) 11 Source: Census Bureau, Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions.
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 1980 12 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 1990 13 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 2000 14 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 2010 15 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract. Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The current population of Harris County by age group and ethnicity (ACS, 2010-2014) Non-Hispanic Whites All Others 79 78 77 76 76 71 72 71 39 61 48 52 53 47 59 41 21 22 23 24 24 29 28 29 16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010-2014 ACS 5-year estimates Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The current population of Texas by age group and ethnicity (ACS, 2009-2013) 68 66 Non-Hispanic Whites All others 65 64 61 60 60 58 59 65 70 32 33 35 36 39 40 40 42 52 48 41 35 30 17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The current population of the United States by age group and ethnicity (ACS, 2009-2014) Non-Hispanic Whites All others 74 78 82 68 50 50 53 54 47 46 56 57 58 58 44 43 42 42 60 40 32 26 22 18 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The projected population of the U.S. by age group and ethnicity in 2050 Non-Hispanic Whites All others 64 62 36 38 39 61 41 59 58 57 56 42 43 44 46 54 50 50 53 47 56 44 64 36 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 National Population Projections, Alternative Net International Migration Series (Constant Series). Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Educational attainment by ethnicity, among respondents aged 25 and older (2006-2016) Less than H.S. H.S. diploma Some college College degree Post-graduate Percent of respondents 57% 24% 34% 29% 20% 33% 26% 31% 28% 28% 28% 27% 21% 24% 4% 10% 7% 14% 14% 14% 7% 5% 11% 6% 2% Asian Immigrants U.S.-born Anglos U.S.-born Blacks U.S.-born Latinos Latino Immigrants 20 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2006-2016) Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Percent of Latinos by time in the U.S. Socioeconomic status among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (2006-2016) Some college or more (Age 25+) Working in production jobs or as day laborers <10 years 21% 10-19 years 17% 20+ years 22% 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Gen. 20% 3 rd Gen. 20% 45% 49% 38% 31% 31% Personal earnings of more than $25,000 <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation 31% 40% 56% 58% 68% 21 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2006-2016) Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Percent of Latinos by time in the U.S. Correlates of SES among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (2006-2016) Owns the place where lives Self and family have health insurance Has internet access at home or work <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation 25% 49% 67% 63% 58% 45% 50% 62% 67% 76% 37% 53% 70% 83% 78% 22 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2006-2016) Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
Attitudes toward immigration among Harris County residents from 2010 to 2017 PERCENT AGREEING 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take. 45 49 59 63 The U.S. should admit the same number or more legal immigrants in the next ten years as were admitted in the last ten years. 55 68 72 71 The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture. 46 60 59 65 Favor: Granting illegal immigrants in the U.S. a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record. 69 78 74 79 20 10 0 YEAR OF SURVEY: 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 23 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2010-2017)
Attitudes toward immigration in four time periods among Anglo Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) 80 70 The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture. Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take. The U.S. should admit the same number or more legal immigrants in the next ten years as in the last ten years. PERCENT AGREEING 60 50 40 30 35 52 41 47 45 45 46 46 46 43 44 40 20 10 0 YEAR OF SURVEY: 1994-1999 2000-2005 2006-2011 2012-2017 24 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2017)
Interethnic romantic relationships by age among Anglos (2007, 2011, 2014, and 2016) Have you ever been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo? 59% 59% 49% 40% 26% 14% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ 25 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007-2016)
Attitudes toward immigration among three cohorts of Harris County Anglos, all aged 25-35 PERCENT AGREEING 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture. 50 52 67 Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take. 35 39 51 The U.S. should admit the same number or more legal immigrants in the next ten years as in the last ten years. 50 57 70 20 10 0 DATE OF BIRTH: 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 26 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2017)
Arts, culture, sports Air and water quality Transportation Bayous Green spaces, trees Urban centers Hiking, boating, birding
Houston s urban sprawl 2.1 million 600 sq. mi. Baltimore 0.6 million 81 sq. mi. Chicago 2.7 million 228 sq. mi. Detroit 0.7 million 139 sq. mi. Philadelphia 1.5 million 134 sq. mi. 28 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The nine-county Houston metropolitan area 6.5 million 10,072 sq. mi. Massachusetts 6.6 million 10,550 sq. mi. New Jersey 8.8 million 8,729 sq. mi. 29 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The preference for walkable urbanism among Harris County residents (2007-2017) 70 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50 50 47 47 40 A single-family residential area 51 50 56 An area with a mix of developments 57 47 52 A single-family home with need to drive everywhere 49 52 50 46 40 A smaller, more urbanized home within walking distance 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 30 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2010-2017)
1978 Alex Ma
2011 Alex Ma
Today s pro-growth agenda Texas needs cities to need develop nurture to grow a into far into a truly successful more much educated more multiethnic appealing workforce society, urban and destinations, equality the while research of opportunity accommodating centers for all one with develop communities, that rapidly will fuel growing a where new populations. economy. all are encouraged to participate as full partners in shaping the state s future.
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