CBS NEWS POLL For release: Monday, August 14, 2006 6:30 P.M. EDT THE WAR ON TERROR: NEW CONCERNS August 11-13, 2006 Most Americans believe the foiled plot to blow up airplanes traveling from England to the United States did in fact represent a major threat to the U.S., and think the additional air travel regulations implemented in its wake are necessary. But while terrorism has reemerged as a major issue for many Americans, there is no indication in this poll that it benefits either assessments of the President or Republicans generally at least not yet. THE PLOT AND THE THREAT Over 8 in 10 Americans have heard or read at least some about the recently revealed plan to blow up airplanes leaving England, including about half who have heard or read a lot about it. 70% say the planned attacks represented a major threat to the U.S., and another one in five say it was a minor threat. The attacks are viewed as more of a threat to the U.S. than to England, where the arrests took place. 55% of Americans say the planned attacks represented a major threat to that country, and 3 in 10 say it was a minor threat to England. DID PLANNED ATTACKS REPRESENT A THREAT TO? The United States England Major threat 70% 55% Minor threat 19 29 Not a threat 7 13 Last week s terrorist threat has had an impact on Americans priorities. While the war in Iraq remains the most important issue facing the country, terrorism has risen to the number two spot, volunteered by 17% and up from just 7% last month. Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans have mentioned terrorism since July 2005, and the percentage naming it has rarely approached the current level. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Now 7/2006 War in Iraq 28% 23% Terrorism 17 7 Economy and Jobs 11 11 Price of gas 7 8 Immigration 4 4
Republicans are more likely to say terrorism is the most important issue, while Democrats are more likely to volunteer the war in Iraq. Americans expectations of an attack in the near future have also increased. 64% now think a terrorist attack on the U.S. is likely in the next few months. This is up from earlier this year. Concern is still significantly lower than immediately after the attacks of 9/11. Then, 78% thought another terrorist attack against the U.S. was likely. LIKELIHOOD OF TERROR ATTACK IN U.S. IN NEXT FEW MONTHS Now 1/2006 9/2001 Very likely 17% 10% 36% Somewhat likely 47 43 42 Not very/not at all likely 33 44 20 Few (26%) are concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where they live, but 32% of Northeast residents are concerned the highest of any region. Americans are more negative in their views of the war on terrorism generally. 35% now think the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terrorism, down from 43% in June and the lowest that figure has been since January 2003. 20% think the terrorists are winning, the highest number in nearly four years. WHO IS WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR? Now 6/2006 9/2004 5/2003 1/2003 U.S. and its allies 35% 43% 41% 53% 32% Neither side 41 42 38 35 44 Terrorists 20 11 14 9 17 But most Americans are positive about how the war against terrorism is going overall. 62% think it is going well, while 37% think it is going badly. Those figures have not changed since late 2003. All in all, just 12% of Americans feel safer from the threat of terrorism than they did one year ago. Most Americans feel they are just as safe as they were a year ago, while 18% feel less safe. Americans are divided as to whether Osama bin Laden is still the leader of Al Qaeda. 48% think he is, but 39% believe other people are really running Al Qaeda now. THE ADMINISTRATION AND THE PRESIDENT The threat of more attacks and the Administration s response to the threat - has not had much impact on how Americans view the performance of the government in general or the President specifically on handling the threat of terrorism. About half think the policies of the Bush Administration have made the U.S. safer from terrorism, but that has not changed in the past few years. More than 1 in 4 say Administration policies have made the country less safe.
BUSH ADMINISTRATION POLICIES HAVE MADE U.S.: Now 5/2004 3/2004 9/2003 Safer 51% 50% 53% 60% Less safe 29 26 20 18 No effect 16 19 22 18 And although two-thirds have at least a fair amount of confidence in the government s ability to protect the country from an attack, this level of confidence is lower than it was in September 2001, and mostly unchanged in the last year. CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT ABILITY TO PROTECT NATION FROM TERROR ATTACK? Now 7/2005 9/2001 Great deal 17% 20% 35% Fair amount 51 49 53 Not much/none 31 30 11 There has been no increase in President Bush s job approval, despite the renewed focus on a terrorist threat. His approval rating now stands at 36%. BUSH S JOB APPROVAL Now 7/2006 Approve 36% 36% Disapprove 57 55 Even his approval rating for handling terrorism, his strongest suit, is 51%, unchanged from last month. And Americans continue to give the President low ratings for handling foreign policy in general, the economy and Iraq, with just about one in three approving of each. BUSH S APPROVAL RATINGS Now 7/2006 Terrorism 51% 51% Iraq 30% 32% Foreign policy 33% 35% Economy 30% 33% Perceptions of the President s ability to handle a crisis have not changed either. 53% have confidence in his ability to do so, while 46% do not, the same as last month. The Administration continues to receive criticism from a sizable segment of the public for focusing too much on the war in Iraq and not enough on terrorism. 41% think they have done so, while 48% think the balance has been about right. These figures are similar to those found a year ago.
A growing percentage of the public thinks the war in Iraq has caused the terrorist threat against the U.S. to become worse. 48% now say the war has increased the threat of terrorism against the U.S., up from 40% in August 2005. This is the highest percentage saying that since May 2003. Only 9% think the war has decreased the threat of terrorism. EFFECT OF WAR IN IRAQ ON TERRORISM AGAINST U.S. Now 8/2005 6/2004 5/2003 Increased 48% 40% 47% 34% Decreased 9 16 13 15 Stayed the same 42 42 38 49 Just half of Americans see the war there as part of the larger war on terrorism. 35% think it is a major part of that war, and another 15% think it is a minor part. 46% think it is not part of the war on terror. These views have not changed over the past few years. VIEWS OF THE PARTIES The recent terrorism threat has also had little effect on views of the two parties. Republicans continue to be seen as doing a better job addressing terrorism than Democrats by 42% to 34%, about the same as a month ago. But this is a far cry from the 25-point edge the Republicans had four years ago, before the last midterm election. Democrats continue to be viewed as doing a better job than Republicans on handling the economy (49% to 36%), and they also continue to have a slight advantage on making the right decisions about the war in Iraq. Democrats had a six-point edge on this last month, but have only a three-point margin now. They have been viewed as stronger on this issue since July 2004. WHICH PARTY WOULD DO A BETTER JOB HANDLING Republicans Democrats Terrorism 42% 34 The economy 36% 49 Iraq 35% 38 A majority of Americans thinks the U.S. should have stayed out of Iraq, and 4 in 10 think it was the right thing to do. Those views are not much changed in the last year. 42% think the war is going well for the U.S., while 56% think it is going badly. These views remain unchanged since last month. AIR TRAVEL SECURITY WILL YOU FLY? New air travel regulations concerning carry-on luggage were immediately implemented as a result of the revealed terror plot. For most Americans, they were necessary. Three in 4 say barring U.S. air travelers from bringing liquids such as drinks and toothpaste in their carry-on baggage is necessary. Seven in 10 also think the
restrictions in England permitting passengers to carry on only their wallet, passport and prescription medicine are necessary. ARE NEW AIR TRAVEL REGULATIONS NECESSARY? Yes, necessary No, unnecessary Prohibit U.S. passengers from bringing liquids aboard airplanes 75% 23 Limit the carry-on luggage of passengers in England 70% 27 Most - 82% - think the government screenings and searches of air passengers, which have been in place for some time, are effective in stopping terrorist threats to the U.S. This number is slightly higher than it was earlier this year. SCREENING AIR TRAVELERS: EFFECTIVE AT FIGHTING TERRORISM? Now 1/2006 Very 21% 24% Somewhat 61 53 Not very/not at all 18 22 However, the public thinks the government could be doing even more and this is a big increase since last year. 58% say that since the attacks of September 11 th, 2001, the government could have done more to improve airport security. Four in 10 say they have done all they reasonably could be expected to do. Opinion now is more negative than it was last August; then, half said the government was doing all it could reasonably be expected to do with regard to airport security. HAS FEDERAL GOVT. DONE ENOUGH TO IMPROVE AIRPORT SECURITY? Now 8/2005 Yes 39% 50% No 58 46 Most important for the airline industry and the overall U.S. economy is whether Americans will continue to fly. This poll suggests they will. Just 14% say they are afraid to fly, 34% say it bothers them slightly, and 48% say they are not at all afraid. These numbers are similar to what they were in 2002. CIVIL LIBERTIES FEELINGS ABOUT FLYING Now 9/2002 Afraid 14% 16% Bothers slightly 34 30 Not at all afraid 48 51 Despite the increase in concern about terrorism, Americans are still more worried about possible restrictions to their civil liberties than
they are about the government NOT enacting strong anti-terrorism legislation. WHICH CONCERNS YOU MORE? Now 5/2006 1/2006 12/2001 Govt. fail to enact anti-terror laws 39% 36% 38% 43% Restrict civil liberties 46 51 46 45 Most Americans think it is likely that Arab Americans, Muslims, and immigrants from the Middle East will be singled out unfairly by people in this country. 41% say such people are very likely to be unfairly singled out, up from 31% in 2002. LIKELY ARAB AMERICANS AND MUSLIMS SINGLED OUT IN U.S.? Now 1/2002 9/2001 Very likely 41% 31% 50% Somewhat likely 43 47 40 Not likely 15 19 9 THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST Interviewing for this poll was conducted before the cease fire between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon took effect. Americans were becoming increasingly fearful that the war there may lead to a larger conflict in the region. Seven in 10 think that is likely to happen, up from 61% last month. WILL ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT LEAD TO WIDER WAR? Now 7/2006 Likely 69% 61% Not likely 24 28 39% think the U.S. should publicly support Israel, unchanged since last month. 38% think the U.S. should say nothing, and only 10% think the U.S. should criticize Israel. U.S. POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL SHOULD BE? Now 7/2006 Support 39% 39% Say nothing 38 40 Criticize 10 7 This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 974 adults, interviewed by telephone August 11-13, 2006. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the complete sample.
CBS NEWS POLL The War on Terror: New Concerns August 11-13, 2006 q1 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Total Rep Dem Ind Jul06a Approve 36 73 14 29 36 Disapprove 57 22 79 62 55 DK/NA 7 5 7 9 9 q2-4 BLANK q5 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? War in Iraq 28 21 34 27 23 Terrorism (general) 17 28 9 16 7 Economy / Jobs 11 11 12 10 11 Gas/Heating Oil Crisis 7 6 8 7 8 Immigration 4 3 5 3 4 Foreign Policy 3 3 3 3 4 Defense / Military 3 4 2 2 3 The President/G.W. Bush 3 2 5 3 3 Poverty / Homelessness 2 2 1 2 2 Education 2 2 3 2 2 Health Care 2 2 1 2 3 Other 14 12 13 18 24 DK/NA 4 4 4 5 6 q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling foreign policy? Approve 33 64 11 31 35 Disapprove 56 28 78 57 54 DK/NA 11 8 11 12 11 q7 How about the economy? Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? Approve 30 61 12 25 33 Disapprove 62 34 80 66 59 DK/NA 8 5 8 9 8 q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Approve 30 57 10 28 32 Disapprove 66 37 87 68 62 DK/NA 4 6 3 4 6 q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism? Approve 51 82 26 50 51 Disapprove 43 15 66 43 42 DK/NA 6 3 8 7 7 q10-13 BLANK
q14 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq? Total Rep Dem Ind Jul06a Republican Party 35 76 8 29 36 Democratic Party 38 9 70 29 42 Both (Vol.) 2 2 2 2 1 Neither (Vol.) 12 6 7 20 7 DK/NA 13 7 13 20 14 q15 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to ensure a strong economy? Republican Party 36 76 8 31 36 Democratic Party 49 18 86 39 48 Both (Vol.) 1 0 0 2 1 Neither (Vol.) 5 3 2 10 4 DK/NA 9 3 4 18 11 q16 Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to make the right decisions when it comes to dealing with terrorism? Republican Party 42 82 18 35 42 Democratic Party 34 7 64 27 36 Both (Vol.) 6 4 4 9 4 Neither (Vol.) 7 3 2 13 4 DK/NA 11 4 12 16 14 q17 Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have made the United States safer from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the U.S.' safety from terrorism? Oct04f* Safer 51 75 36 48 54 Less safe 29 11 46 28 29 No effect 16 14 14 19 14 DK/NA 4 0 4 5 3 *Trend is among registered voters q18 What is your impression of how the campaign against terrorism is going for the United States right now - very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Mar04b Very well 11 20 3 11 11 Somewhat well 51 66 42 48 53 Somewhat badly 23 11 35 21 23 Very badly 14 1 19 19 11 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 2
q19 BLANK q20 How much confidence do you have in George W. Bush's ability to handle a crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? Total Rep Dem Ind Jul06a A lot 24 54 5 20 26 Some 29 31 29 27 27 A little 22 10 30 22 23 None at all 24 4 35 30 24 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 0 q21-29 BLANK q30 How much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.S. government to protect its citizens from future terrorist attacks -- a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or none at all? Mar06a A great deal 17 25 12 16 17 A fair amount 51 60 46 49 43 Not very much 25 14 34 25 28 None at all 6 1 7 7 10 DK/NA 1 0 1 3 2 q31 How likely do you think it is that there will be another terrorist attack in the United States within the next few MONTHS ---- very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, not at all likely? Jan06b Very likely 17 12 17 20 10 Somewhat likely 47 48 47 46 43 Not very likely 27 33 27 24 33 Not at all likely 6 6 5 6 11 DK/NA 3 1 4 3 3 q32 Would you say you personally are very concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where you live, or not? Jul05b Yes 26 18 31 26 21 No 73 81 68 72 77 DK/NA 1 1 1 2 2 q33 BLANK q34 Compared to one year ago, do you feel more safe from the threat of terrorism, less safe, or about as safe as you felt one year ago? Jul06a More safe 12 19 8 11 14 Less safe 18 12 23 19 18 About as safe 69 69 68 70 68 DK/NA 1 0 1 0 0
q35 Do you think the federal government has done all it could reasonably be expected to do to improve airport security since September 11, 2001, or could it have done more? Total Rep Dem Ind Aug05b Done all it could 39 45 34 39 50 Could have done more 58 53 63 56 46 DK/NA 3 2 3 5 4 q36 In general, when the government conducts screenings and searches of passengers who travel on airplanes in the U.S., how effective do you think that is in stopping terrorist threats to the United States very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not at all effective? Jan06a Very effective 21 25 18 19 24 Somewhat effective 61 65 62 56 53 Not very effective 14 9 14 17 16 Not at all effective 4 0 5 5 6 DK/NA 0 1 1 3 1 q37 Everybody has fears about different things. How do you feel about flying in an airplane would you tell me whether you're afraid of it, whether it bothers you slightly, or whether you're not at all afraid of it? Sep02a Afraid of flying 14 13 16 14 16 Bother slightly 34 30 41 30 30 Not at all afraid 48 55 39 51 51 DK/NA 4 2 4 5 3 q38 Airline passengers in the U.S. are currently not permitted to bring liquids such as drinks, toothpaste, or shampoo onto airplanes. Do you think these regulations are necessary, or unnecessary? Necessary 75 84 72 71 Unnecessary 23 15 27 26 For some, not others (Vol.) 0 0 0 1 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 q39 Airline passengers in England are currently only permitted to carry on their wallet, passport, and prescription medication and nothing else. Do you think these regulations are necessary, or unnecessary? Necessary 70 76 69 67 Unnecessary 27 23 28 30 For some, not others (Vol.) 1 0 2 0 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 q40-46 BLANK
q47 Which concerns you more right now that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws, or that the government will enact new anti-terrorism laws which excessively restrict the average person's civil liberties? Total Rep Dem Ind May06b Fail to enact laws 39 56 30 35 36 Restrict civil liberties 46 32 57 47 51 Both (Vol.) 1 1 1 1 2 Neither (Vol.) 2 3 1 3 1 DK/NA 11 8 11 14 10 q48 How much have you heard or read about the recent arrests and the plan to blow up airplanes leaving from England -- a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? A lot 46 47 46 46 Some 36 39 37 34 Not much 12 12 11 13 Nothing 5 2 6 7 DK/NA 1 0 0 0 q49 As you probably know, most of the people accused of planning to blow up airplanes lived in England, and their plans involved planes flying from England to the United States. Do you think that the planned attacks represented a major terrorist threat to the United States, a minor terrorist threat, or not much of a threat? Major threat 70 78 68 66 Minor threat 19 17 22 18 Not a threat 7 4 6 10 DK/NA 4 1 4 6 q50 Do you think that the planned attacks represented a major terrorist threat to England, a minor terrorist threat, or not much of a threat? Major threat 55 63 51 52 Minor threat 29 29 32 27 Not a threat 13 7 14 16 DK/NA 3 1 3 5 q51 How likely do you think it is that Arab Americans, Muslims, and immigrants from the Middle East will be singled out unfairly by people in this country very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely? Jan02a Very likely 41 33 48 41 31 Somewhat likely 43 46 42 41 47 Not too likely 11 16 7 10 16 Not at all likely 4 4 2 5 3 DK/NA 1 1 1 3 3 q52-56 BLANK
q57 In your opinion, do you think that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon is likely to lead to a larger war between other countries in the Middle East, or not? Total Rep Dem Ind Jul06a Yes, likely 69 63 76 69 61 No, not likely 24 29 20 24 28 DK/NA 7 8 4 7 11 q58 What should the United States do in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon? Should the United States government publicly support Israel, should it say or do nothing, or should it publicly criticize Israel? Support 39 47 29 43 39 Say nothing 38 37 44 32 40 Criticize 10 9 11 10 7 DK/NA 13 7 16 15 14 q59-61 BLANK q62 Who do you think is currently winning the war against terrorism -- the United States and its allies, neither side, or the terrorists? Jun06a United States and its allies 35 54 25 30 43 Neither side 41 30 48 43 42 Terrorists 20 11 24 22 11 DK/NA 4 5 3 5 4 q63 BLANK q64 Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the US have stayed out? Jul06a Right thing 41 72 17 39 47 Stayed out 53 25 76 53 48 Don't know/no answer 6 3 7 8 5 q65 How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Very well 5 7 1 7 4 Somewhat well 37 60 23 32 37 Somewhat badly 31 23 40 29 30 Very badly 25 8 33 30 27 Don't know/no answer 2 2 3 2 2 q66 Do you think of the war with Iraq as part of the war on terrorism, or do you think of it as separate from the war on terrorism? IF YES, ASK: Is it a major part of the war on terrorism, or a minor part of the war on terrorism? Jun06a Major part 35 52 24 32 41 Minor part 15 18 13 15 13 Not part 46 28 58 48 41 DK/NA 4 2 5 5 5
q67 As a result of the United States' military action against Iraq, do you think the threat of terrorism against the United States has increased, decreased, or stayed about the same? Total Rep Dem Ind Aug05b Increased 48 39 56 48 40 Decreased 9 15 4 8 16 Stayed about the same 42 46 39 41 42 DK/NA 1 0 1 3 2 q68 Over the last couple of years, do you think the Bush administration has focused too much on the war in Iraq and not enough on terrorists elsewhere in the world, or focused too much on terrorists elsewhere in the world and not enough on the war in Iraq, or has the balance been about right? Jul05a Too much on Iraq 41 26 51 43 43 Too much on terrorists 3 1 6 3 6 Balance about right 48 69 36 42 44 DK/NA 8 4 7 12 7 q69-94 BLANK q95 Do you think Osama bin Laden is still in charge of the Al Qaeda terrorist network, or do you think other people are really running Al Qaeda now? Osama in charge 48 48 51 46 Other people 39 43 38 37 DK/NA 13 9 11 17 UWNEIGHTED Total Respondents 974 WEIGHTED Total Republicans 274 273 Total Democrats 317 340 Total Independents 383 360