September 15 2015 No Longer at Ease Country Ownership in an Interconnected World Patrick C. Fine Chief Executive Officer, FHI 360 @pfinefine 0
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Ownership matters Policy matters Results matter 2
September 15 2015 No Longer at Ease Country Ownership in an Interconnected World 3
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) Where ODA remains a major source of funding, countries need strategies to: Expand their access to non-concessional funding and raise their own resources Deepen their connectivity with the rest of the world. 4
Agenda The concept of country ownership A changed landscape from postcolonial to post-global Ownership in an interconnected world 5
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The Western ruling groups are conceited, full of themselves, ignorant of our conditions, and they make other people s business their business Yoweri Museveni 2006 7
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August 21, 1972 10
Practice into policy: Country ownership as a development doctrine The key element that will guide this work is a country-based approach that emphasizes country ownership and government leadership Partner countries commit to exercise leadership in developing and implementing their national development strategies through broad consultative processes. We reaffirm that national ownership and leadership of development strategies and good governance are important Private business activity, investment and innovation are major drivers of productivity, inclusive economic growth and job creation. 2002 Rome 2005 Paris 2008 Doha Conference 2015 Addis Ababa Conference 2002 Monterrey Conference 2008 Accra 2011 Busan Each country has primary responsibility for its own economic and social development, and the role of national policies and development strategies cannot be overemphasized. Developing country governments will take stronger leadership of their own development policies, and will engage with their parliaments and citizens in shaping those policies. Partnerships for development can only succeed if they are led by developing countries, implementing approaches that are tailored to country-specific situations and needs. Key High Level Fora on Aid Effectiveness International Conferences on Financing for Development 11
Donor vs. developing country perspectives Partnership and co-ownership partnership, not patronage - President Obama bottom-up, participatory change in opposition to the top-down reforms - David Booth, Overseas Development Institute broad-based participation partnership participatory processes mutual accountability - Millennium Challenge Corporation s Principles into Practice DONOR DEVELOPING COUNTRY Ownership Africa can control its own destiny by taking greater ownership of our continent's development agenda. - Nelson Sewankambo, President of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences We in the developing countries must own the development agenda, and our partners have to align their support to our agenda, our priorities and the sequencing we have set for ourselves... Development cannot be imposed, it can only be facilitated. - President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania Despite their good intentions, their perspective is often predicated on paternalism not on partnership, on charity not on self-reliance, and on promises unfulfilled rather than real change on the ground. - Rwandan President Paul Kagame 12
Policy into practice: new funding mechanisms Global Partnership for Education Sector- Wide Approaches Global Financing Facility Rollback Malaria Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Millennium Challenge Corporation Fixed Obligation Grants USAID Local Solutions 13
An interconnected world is fundamentally different Economic Technology Environment Government Urbanization Entrepreneurship Labor Market/ Employment Financial Transactions Solar Energy Identity Security MOOCs Legal Registration Social Media Trade Development Infrastructure Development Population Migration Water Security Mobile Phones Natural Resource Development Corruption/ Transparency Public Services Food Security Global Equity Markets Currency Valuation Political Stability 14
And Uganda is transforming with it 15
Population has grown around the world 1980 2015 2050 2100 4.4 billion 7.3 billion 9.7 billion 11+ billion Developing countries accounted for 97% of the growth Africa s current population is 1.2 billion (16%) The global population growth will be largely driven by Africa Africa s population is expected to triple or quadruple over the next 85 years 16
And Uganda is a key contributor 1992 2015 2050 2100 18 million 38 million 102 million 205 million By 2100, Uganda s population will increase fivefold and become one of the top 10 most populated countries 17
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A world connected through the internet 35 30 25 Internet users per 100 people African Undersea Cables Map 2014 Monthly Broadband Prices Across Africa 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Uganda Middle income Least developed countries World Development Indicators 19
A world connected through cell phones 20
2010 2013 21
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A world connected through education 2014 E-Learning Global Market 2011-2016 E-Learning Aggregate Growth Rates by Region Source: E-Learning Market Trends & Forecast 2014-2016 Report and 2011-2016 Growth rates by region (Ambient Insight 2012) 23
A world connected through trade 2,500 Uganda exports by market (US$ millions) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 2015 COMESA European Union Middle East Asia Rest of Africa Rest of Europe The Americas Unclassified Bank of Uganda 24
The changing landscape Communication and information Trade and industry DEVELOPMENT FINANCING Education and training Transportation and migration 25
The evolution of financing for development US$ billion 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Domestic expenditure Short term debt Long term debt Remittances Portfolio Equity FDI Gross OOFs - 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: ODA and OOFs (OECD); FDI (UNCTAD); portfolio equity and remittances (World Bank); loans data (World Bank s International Debt Statistics); government expenditure (IMF). 26
LDCs still dependent on aid Increased private sector investment at the global level has not translated into significant increases in private flows to LDCs Global Total Resource Flows LDC Resource Flows $1,200,000 $100,000 $1,000,000 $90,000 $80,000 US Millions $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 US Millions $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $200,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ODA OOF Export Credits FDI Other Securities Private Grants Remittances ODA OOF Export Credits FDI Other Securities Private Grants Source Data: OECD Data; http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/non-odabyrecipient/resource 27
LIC 2000 Country upward mobility Afghanistan Angola Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Benin Bhutan Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Central African Republic Chad China Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Kenya Korea, Dem. Rep. Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Moldova Mongolia Mozambique Myanmar Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan Rwanda São Tomé and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia Sudan Tajikistan Tanzania Togo Turkmenistan Uganda Vietnam Yemen, Rep. Zambia Zimbabwe 28
LIC LMIC UMIC Country upward mobility Afghanistan Korea, Dem. Rep. Benin Afghanistan Liberia Burkina Faso Angola Madagascar Burundi Armenia Malawi Cambodia Azerbaijan Mali Central African Bangladesh Mozambique Republic Benin Nepal Chad Bhutan Niger Comoros Burkina Rwanda Faso Congo, Dem. Burundi Sierra Leone Rep. Cambodia Somalia Eritrea Cameroon Tanzania Ethiopia Central Togo African Republic Gambia, The Chad Uganda Guinea China Zimbabwe Guinea-Bissau Comoros Haiti Congo, Dem. Rep. Armenia Congo, Rep. Bangladesh Côte d'ivoire Bhutan Eritrea Cameroon Ethiopia Congo, Rep. Gambia, The Côte d'ivoire Ghana Ghana Guinea Honduras Guinea-Bissau India Haiti Indonesia Honduras Kenya India Kyrgyz Republic IndonesiaLao PDR Kenya Lesotho Korea, Dem. Mauritania Rep. Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Lao PDR Myanmar Nicaragua Nigeria Pakistan Lesotho São Liberia Tomé and Principe Madagascar Senegal Malawi Solomon Mali Islands Sudan Mauritania Tajikistan Moldova Vietnam Mongolia Yemen, Mozambique Rep. Zambia Myanmar Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan Rwanda São Angola Tomé and Principe Senegal Azerbaijan Sierra China Leone Solomon Mongolia Islands Somalia Turkmenistan Sudan Tajikistan Tanzania Togo Turkmenistan Uganda Vietnam Yemen, Rep. Zambia Zimbabwe 29
LMIC UMIC Common themes in graduated countries 1. 2. Afghanistan Angola Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Benin Bhutan Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Central African Republic Chad China Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Congo, Rep. Policies to enable connectivity: a) Allow private enterprise b) Protect private property c) Control corruption d) Macro-economic management Raise their own development finance Côte d'ivoire Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Armenia Bangladesh Bhutan Haiti Honduras India Indonesia Kenya Korea, Dem. Lesotho Rep. Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Lesotho Liberia Cameroon Congo, Rep. Côte d'ivoire Ghana Honduras India Indonesia Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Mauritania Moldova Myanmar Nicaragua Madagascar Nigeria Malawi Pakistan Mali São Tomé and Mauritania Principe Moldova Senegal Mongolia Solomon Islands Sudan Mozambique Tajikistan Myanmar Vietnam Nepal Yemen, Rep. Nicaragua Zambia Niger Nigeria Pakistan Rwanda São Tomé and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia Sudan Tajikistan Tanzania Togo Turkmenistan Uganda Vietnam Yemen, Rep. Zambia Zimbabwe Angola Azerbaijan China Mongolia Turkmenistan 30
Creating an enabling environment: LMICs outperform LICs 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 Equity of public resource use Property rights and rule-based governance Quality of budgetary and financial management Efficiency of revenue mobilization Transparency, accountability, and corruption in the public sector Low income countries (27) Graduated countries (26) World Bank CPIA 31
Country ownership in the 21 st century: 1980-2000 2015 Development narrative is about country ownership achieving national objectives Venue for asserting primacy of national priorities is International financing relationships predominately with Job creation and technology transfer mainly from international donor conferences Donor governments, multilateral institutions Donor programs national institutions banks, businesses and educational and scientific organizations Businesses, research institutes, entrepreneurs Donor funding is Dominant source Complementary source 32
Ownership matters Policy matters Results matter Connectivity matters 33
Samra wastewater treatment plant in Jordan 34
Sustainable Development Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development finance. 35
What does this mean for Uganda? Tax reform to increase domestic resource mobilization Private property protections and transparent regulations to improve business conditions More effective control of corruption Continue to deepen international connections 36
But people cannot be developed, they can only develop themselves. Julius Nyerere Freedom and Development, 1973 37
But could still improve on ease of trade Indicator Uganda Sub-Saharan Africa Botswana Documents to export (number) 7 8 6 4 Time to export (days) 28.0 30.5 27.0 10.5 OECD Cost to export (US$ per container) 2,800.0 2,200.7 3,145.0 1,080.3 Cost to export (deflated US$ per container) 2,800.0 2,200.7 3,145.0 1,080.3 Documents to import (number) 10 9 6 4 Time to import (days) 31.0 37.6 35.0 9.6 Cost to import (US$ per container) 3,375.0 2,930.9 3,710.0 1,100.4 Cost to import (deflated US$ per container) Doing Business Report, 2015 3,375.0 2,930.9 3,710.0 1,100.4 38