DEMOCRACY AND REDISTRIBUTION Carles Boix i (September 11th, 2002) i Department of Political Science. The University of Chicago. E-mail: cboix@midway.uchicago.edu.
A l Alícia.. more than reason (Much Ado About Nothing, V, 4)
Table of Contents Pages Introduction 1. The Theoretical and Empirical Debate 2. The Argument of the Book 3. Plan of the Book Chapter 1. A Theory of Political Transitions 1. The Initial Distribution of Assets and the Demand for Redistribution 1. 1. Preferences, Technology and Endowments 1. 2. Political Systems 2. The Choice of Political Regime 2. 1. Information Structure and Political Conflict 2. 2. Timing of the Game 2. 3. Equilibrium of the Game 3. A Discussion of Inequality, Asset Specificity and Repression Costs 3. 1. Income Inequality 3. 2. Asset Specificity Asset Specificity, Economic Development and Globalization Asset Specificity and Pre-contemporary Regimes Wealthy Dictatorships i
Size of the Country, Politically Fragmented Geographical Areas and the Emergence of Democracy 3. 3. Political Mobilization and the Role of Repression 4. The Role of the Middle Class. Cross-Class Coalitions. 5. Conclusions 4. 1. The Middle Class 4. 2. Cross-sectoral Alliances Chapter 2. Empirical Evidence 1. Political Regimes in the Post War Period 1. 1. Empirical Strategy 1. 2. Data 1. 3. Results 2. Political Regimes since Mid-19 th Century 2. 1. Data 2. 2. Results 3. Revolutions and Civil Wars Chapter 3. Historical Evidence 1. Democracy in the Swiss Cantons 2. Democracy in America 3. Conclusions ii
Chapter 4. Theoretical Extensions. Growth, Trade, and Democracy. Political Institutions 1. Economic Growth and Credible Commitment 2. Social Mobility and Democracy 3. Trade and Democracy 4. Political Institutions 4. 1. Voting Mechanisms and the Case of Proportional Representation 4. 2. Separation of Powers The Consequences of Presidentialism in a Democratic Constitution Separation of Powers as a Mechanism to Limit Democracy Presidentialism and the Rising Stakes of the Game 4. 3. Political Decentralization The Choice of Independence Asset Specificity and Independence Federalism 4. 4. Political Institutions and Democratic Stability 5. Conclusions Chapter 5. Democracy and Redistribution 1. The Growth of the Public Sector 2. Data and Methods 3. Empirical Results 3. 1. Public Revenue of General Government iii
3. 2. Public Consumption of General Government 3. 3. Total Expenditure of Central Government 3. 4. Subsidies and Transfers of Central Government 3. 5. Wages and Salaries of Central Government 4. Conclusions Chapter 6. The State, the Threat of Expropriation, and the Possibility of Development 1. The State and the Threat of Expropriation 1. 1. Democratic Accountability 1. 2. Rent Appropriation in Authoritarian Regimes 1. 3. Asset Concentration and Rent Appropriation 1. 4. Revolution and the Expropriation of Assets 2. Economic Reform and the Possibility of Democracy 3. The Sources of Inequality and Capital Mobility 4. Conclusions Chapter 7. Conclusions References Tables Figures iv
Acknowledgements This book has benefited from comments by Alícia Adserà, James Alt, Delia Boylan, Jeff Campbell, Matt Cleary,Gösta Esping-Andersen, Jonathan Guryon, Lloyd Gruber, Mark Jones, José María Maravall, Luis Medina, Adam Przeworski, Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca, Susan Pratt, Carey Shugart, Duncan Snidal, James Snyder, Andy Sobel, Susan Stokes, Lora Viola, Michael Wallerstein, Lisa Wedeen and Christa van Wijnbergen. I wish to thank too the comments from participants in seminars at Fundación Juan March, Madrid; Washington University; The University of Chicago; Harvard-MIT Positive Political Economy Workshop; McGill University; Kellogg Institute for International Studies, Notre Dame University; UCLA; Ohio State University; CIDE, Ciudad de México; Stanford University; and Yale University. My deepest gratitude goes, however, to Luis Garicano, with whom I wrote the baseline model described in Chapter 1. Finally, I wish to acknowledge the financial support of the Franke Institute for the Humanities at the University of Chicago. The Institute freed me from teaching in the academic year 1999-2000 under the assumption I would be writing on a different project: I hope that, in spite of my change of plans, the result is worth their investment. v