Peter Brown, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 3, 2011 FLORIDA S NELSON GETS OK GRADES, BUT UNDER 50%, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; VOTERS DIVIDED ON SECOND TERM FOR OBAMA Florida Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson has a 45 21 percent job approval rating among registered voters, who say 43 33 percent that he deserves re-election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio has a 42 20 percent job approval rating after his first month in office, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. President Barack Obama gets a split job approval rating as 47 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove. By a narrow 48 45 percent margin, voters say the president does not deserve a second term. In fact, 40 percent of Florida voters would back Obama while 42 percent say they would back an unnamed Republican challenger. Sen. Bill Nelson s numbers are mixed. Only one in five voters is unhappy with his job performance, which indicates he hasn t stirred up strong opposition. But history shows that when only 43 percent of voters say an incumbent deserves another term, that incumbent sometimes doesn t get another term, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Sen. Nelson is not in terrific shape but he is not in terrible shape either. His fate may rest with how President Barack Obama does in 2012 as Florida voters see the two men similarly on the issues. Florida voters say 46 17 percent that Nelson generally shares the same views as President Obama. Independent voters, often the key voting group, say he shares Obama s views 44 17 percent. -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/February 3, 2010 page 2 A plurality of voters, 44 percent, say Obama is too liberal, as 4 percent say he is too conservative and 43 percent say the president is about right. Almost the same number, 44 percent, say Nelson is about right, while 23 percent say he is too liberal and 7 percent too conservative. But 26 percent don t have a view of Nelson, much greater than the 8 percent who say that about Obama. When Nelson is matched against an unnamed Republican in a trial 2012 heat, he wins 41 36 percent. Obama s 47 49 percent job approval rating is statistically unchanged from his 47 47 rating the last time Quinnipiac University surveyed registered Florida voters in August 2010. He gets a thumbs up from Democrats 83 12 percent and a thumbs down from Republicans 84 14 percent. Independent voters split with 47 percent approving and 49 percent disapproving. of Obama. By a reverse 49 47 percent, still basically a tie, Florida voters have a favorable opinion On other matters, Florida voters are down on both the war in Afghanistan and the president s health care overhaul. Voters say 54 38 percent that the United States should not be involved in Afghanistan, part of a continuing decline in the war s popularity. In Quinnipiac University s August poll, voters said 49 43 percent America should not be involved the war. By 50 43 percent, Florida voters say the health care overhaul should be repealed. From January 25 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,160 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator? Approve 42 65 23 38 43 42 56 Disapprove 20 9 36 17 22 19 11 DK/NA 37 26 41 44 35 39 33 Approve 47 40 45 44 39 Disapprove 14 22 23 15 22 DK/NA 38 39 33 41 39 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States senator? Approve 45 37 55 44 49 42 33 Disapprove 21 32 10 22 26 17 34 DK/NA 34 32 35 35 25 41 33 Approve 48 43 47 39 46 Disapprove 22 29 25 25 11 DK/NA 31 29 28 36 43 TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator? APPROVE... DIS... High Low High Feb 03 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 09 Feb 06 Aug 12 Aug 19 2011 2010 2010 2010 2007 2004 2010 Approve 45 45 46 47 54 42 45 Disapprove 21 33 30 31 18 18 33 DK/NA 34 22 24 22 28 40 22 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Approve 47 14 83 47 45 50 24 Disapprove 49 84 12 49 52 46 72 DK/NA 4 2 5 4 4 4 4 3
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? APPROVE... High Low Feb 03 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 09 Apr 19 Feb 19 Jun 09 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2010 Approve 47 47 46 40 50 64 40 Disapprove 49 47 50 54 45 23 54 DK/NA 4 5 4 6 5 13 6 7. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Obama 40 5 82 37 37 42 13 Republican 42 84 8 35 43 41 70 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12 8 7 19 14 10 11 DK/NA 6 2 4 9 6 7 6 8. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Yes/Deserves reelection 45 9 81 46 44 46 18 No/Does not 48 85 13 44 49 47 73 DK/NA 8 5 6 10 7 8 8 9. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for United States Senator... If the 2012 election for United States Senator were being held today, do you think you would vote for Bill Nelson the Democratic candidate, or the Republican candidate? Nelson 41 11 79 37 41 40 19 Republican 36 73 7 31 37 36 56 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 10 9 6 14 10 10 12 DK/NA 13 6 7 18 12 14 14 Nelson 37 37 41 34 47 Republican 37 43 40 43 26 DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL) 12 8 10 7 11 DK/NA 14 11 9 16 16 4
10. Looking ahead to the 2012 election for U.S. Senate... Do you feel that Bill Nelson deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? Yes/Deserves reelection 43 21 69 40 45 41 27 No/Does not 33 56 9 33 38 28 48 DK/NA 25 23 22 27 17 32 26 Yes/Deserves reelection 39 41 43 37 48 No/Does not 38 35 34 36 25 DK/NA 22 23 23 28 27 12. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 49 13 87 49 48 50 23 Unfavorable 47 84 10 45 49 45 72 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 1 5 1 3 3 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE... High Low Feb 03 Aug 20 Jun 10 Apr 16 Feb 19 Feb 19 Apr 02 2011 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2007 Favorable 49 51 62 63 69 69 42 Unfavorable 47 44 32 30 22 22 38 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 4 5 6 6 16 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 3 3 4 13. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 41 66 17 38 41 41 54 Unfavorable 17 6 33 13 17 16 10 Hvn't hrd enough 41 28 48 48 41 41 34 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 5
TREND: Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? FAVORABLE... High Low Feb 03 Aug 19 Jul 30 Jun 09 Apr 15 Feb 03 Apr 16 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2009 Favorable 41 35 35 36 36 41 10 Unfavorable 17 28 24 28 22 17 11 Hvn't hrd enough 41 34 38 34 41 41 78 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 14. Is your opinion of - Bill Nelson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 39 25 59 35 41 37 25 Unfavorable 23 39 9 21 29 18 43 Hvn't hrd enough 36 35 31 42 30 42 29 REFUSED 2 2 1 1-3 3 15. Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Liberal 44 79 9 42 46 43 72 Conservative 4 2 7 5 6 3 4 About right 43 12 79 43 39 46 19 DK/NA 8 8 5 10 9 8 5 TREND: Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Feb 03 May 01 2011 2008 Too liberal 44 36 Too conservative 4 5 About right 43 47 DK/NA 8 12 16. Do you think Bill Nelson is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Liberal 23 39 6 23 26 20 39 Conservative 7 4 9 8 8 6 2 About right 44 33 63 39 47 42 34 DK/NA 26 25 22 30 19 32 24 6
TREND: Do you think Bill Nelson is too liberal, too conservative, or about right? Feb 03 Aug 31 2011 2005 Too liberal 23 17 Too conservative 7 7 About right 44 50 DK/NA 26 25 17. Do you think Bill Nelson generally shares the views of Barack Obama on major issues or not? Yes 46 47 48 44 50 43 47 No 17 20 16 17 21 14 17 DK/NA 37 33 36 40 30 43 35 29. Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Right thing 38 59 18 37 45 33 51 Should'nt be invlvd 54 33 74 57 50 59 39 DK/NA 7 8 8 6 5 9 10 TREND: Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now? Feb 03 Aug 19 2011 2010 Right thing 38 43 Shld't be invl 54 49 DK/NA 7 7 30. Do you think Congress should repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand? Should repeal it 50 78 18 52 52 48 73 Let it stand 43 15 74 43 44 42 21 DK/NA 7 7 8 5 4 10 5 7