strategic asia 2009 10 economic meltdown and Geopolitical Stability Edited by Ashley J. Tellis, Andrew Marble, and Travis Tanner Indicators Strategic Asia by the Numbers restrictions on use: This PDF is provided for the use of authorized recipients only. For specific terms of use, please contact <publications@nbr.org>. To purchase the print volume Strategic Asia 2009 10: Economic Meltdown and Geopolitical Stability in which this chapter appears please visit <http://www.nbr.org> or contact <orders@nbr.org>. 1215 Fourth Avenue, Suite 1600 Seattle, Washington 98161 USA 206-632-7370
table of contents Politics and International Relations Table 1: Political leadership 296 Table 2: Political rights, corruption, and democracy 297 Economies Table 3: Gross domestic product 298 Table 4: GDP growth and inflation rates 299 Trade and Investment Table 5: Trade flow and trade partners 300 Table 6: Flow of foreign direct investment 301 Energy and Environment Table 7: Energy consumption 302 Table 8: Energy consumption by fuel type 303 Security Challenges Table 9: Total defense expenditure 304 Table 10: Manpower 305 Weapons of Mass Destruction Table 11: Nuclear weapons 306 Table 12: Intercontinental ballistic missiles 306 Table 13: Nonproliferation treaties 307 Table 14: WMD export control regimes 307
Indicators Strategic Asia by the Numbers The following twelve pages contain tables and figures drawn from NBR s Strategic Asia database and its sources. This appendix consists of fourteen tables covering politics and international relations, economies, trade and investment, energy, security challenges, and weapons of mass destruction. The data sets presented here summarize the critical trends in the region and changes underway in the balance of power in Asia. The Strategic Asia database contains additional data for all 37 countries in strategic Asia. Hosted on the program s website (http://www.nbr.org/ strategicasia), the database is a repository for authoritative data for every year since 1990 and is continually updated. The 70 strategic indicators are arranged in ten broad thematic areas: economy, finance, trade and investment, government spending, population, energy and environment, communications and transportation, armed forces, WMD, and politics and international relations. The Strategic Asia database was developed with.net, Microsoft s XML-based platform, which allows users to dynamically link to all or part of the Strategic Asia data set and facilitates easy data sharing. The database also includes additional links that allow users to seamlessly access related online resources. The information for Strategic Asia by the Numbers was compiled by NBR intern Kate Mellor.
296 Strategic Asia 2009 10 Politics and International Relations Barack Obama was elected the 44th U.S. president in November 2008, assuming many challenges at home and abroad, including the economic crisis, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and increasing nuclear proliferation threats in North Korea and Iran. In a gesture of Asia s importance, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to the region in her first overseas trip. North Korean provocations in early 2009 testing a nuclear device, renouncing the 1953 armistice, and imprisoning two journalists suggest the regime is trying to demonstrate strength in the face of a new U.S. administration and questions over Kim Jong-il s health. In June 2009, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was reelected, defeating opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. Massive Iranian protests ensued amid allegations that the election was rigged. Heightened Taliban and al Qaeda threats introduce the possibility of Pakistan and Afghanistan becoming failed states, further straining bilateral relations. India s Manmohan Singh, who was re-elected in 2009, has agreed to restart peace talks with Pakistan, which had stalled after the November attacks on Mumbai. t a b l e 1 Political leadership Political leaders Date assumed office Next election Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd December 2007 2010 Canada Prime Minister Stephen Harper February 2006 2012 China President Hu Jintao March 2003 N/A India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh May 2004 2014 Indonesia President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono October 2004 2014 Japan Prime Minister Taro Aso September 2008 2009 Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev December 1991 2012 Malaysia Prime Minister Abdullah bin Ahmad Badawi October 2003 2013 Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf June 2001 2012 Philippines President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo January 2001 2010 Russia President Dmitry Medvedev May 2008 2012 South Korea President Lee Myung-bak February 2008 2012 Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou May 2008 2012 Thailand Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej January 2008 2011 United States President Barack Obama January 2009 2012 s o u r c e : Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 2009. n o t e : Table shows next election year in which the given leader may lose or retain his position. In some countries elections may be called before these years.
Strategic Asia by the Numbers 297 Russia 14% China 21.3% Japan 9.4% India 9.1% United States 16.8% Proportion of parliament seats held by women, 2008 s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009 t a b l e 2 Political rights, corruption, and democracy Political rights score Corruption score Democracy index 2000 2008 2000 2008 2006 2008 Australia 1 1 8.3 8.7 9.1 9.1 Canada 1 1 9.2 8.7 9.1 9.1 China 7 7 3.1 3.6 3.0 3.0 India 2 2 2.8 3.4 7.7 7.8 Indonesia 3 2 1.7 2.6 6.4 6.3 Japan 1 1 6.4 7.3 8.2 8.3 Kazakhstan 6 6 3.0 2.2 3.6 3.5 Malaysia 5 4 4.8 5.1 6.0 6.6 Pakistan 6 4 2.5 3.9 4.5 Philippines 2 4 2.8 2.3 6.5 6.1 Russia 5 6 2.1 2.1 5.0 4.5 South Korea 2 1 4.0 5.6 7.9 8.0 Taiwan 1 2 5.5 5.7 7.8 7.8 Thailand 2 5 3.2 3.5 5.7 6.8 United States 1 1 7.8 7.3 8.2 8.2 s o u r c e : Freedom House, Freedom in the World, 2001 and 2009, Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index, 2001 and 2008; and Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index, 2006 and 2008. n o t e : Political rights = ability of the people to participate freely in the political process (1=most free/7=least free). Corruption = degree to which public official corruption is perceived to exist (1=most corrupt/10=most open). The democracy index = level of democratization (10=most democractic/0=least democratic). Dash indicates that no data is available.
298 Strategic Asia 2009 10 Economies The financial crisis has decreased demand for Asia s exports. The projected regional GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.3% and 4.3% in 2009 and 2010. China s growth will continue to exceed that of other countries in the region. Though lower than the 9% rate of 2008, China s GDP is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2009. Beijing will not likely allow growth to fall below the 6% cited as necessary for job growth. Growth in Central Asia is anticipated to dip below 2% in 2009, compared to 6% and 12% in 2008 and 2009. Russia s economy is expected to contract by 6% in 2009. The financial crisis has encouraged development of the Chiang Mai Initiative reserves set up in 2000 to help hedge against economic instability in Southeast Asia. In May, Japan and China agreed to contribute $38.4 billion each, the largest contributions of the group. Zhou Xiaochuan of China s Central Bank has called for a new reserve currency based on IMF special drawing rights (SDR) that would replace the role of the dollar in the international financial system. t a b l e 3 United States Gross domestic product GDP ($b constant 2000) Rank 1990 2000 2007 2007 1990 2007 growth (%) 7,055.0 9,764.8 11,491.5 2.0 1 1 Japan 4,111.3 4,667.4 5,206.0 2.1 2 2 China 444.6 1,198.5 2,387.7 13.0 4 3 Canada 535.6 724.9 867.4 2.7 3 4 India 269.4 460.2 771.1 9.1 8 5 South Korea 283.6 511.7 705.6 5.0 6 6 Australia 280.5 399.6 503.0 3.3 7 7 Russia 385.9 259.7 406.2 8.1 5 8 Taiwan 303.2 383.0 5.7 9 Hong Kong 108.4 169.1 235.7 6.4 10 10 Indonesia 109.2 165.0 233.2 6.3 9 11 Thailand 79.4 122.7 173.2 4.8 11 12 Malaysia 45.5 90.3 133.0 6.4 13 13 Singapore 44.7 92.7 132.9 7.7 14 14 Philippines 55.8 75.9 106.8 7.2 12 15 World 23,996.7 31,876.3 39,462.8 3.8 N/A N/A s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2009; and data for Taiwan is from the People s Bank of China, 2007. n o t e : These values show GDP converted from domestic currencies using 2000 exchange rates. Figures for Taiwan are calculated using the average exchange rate for 2000. Dash indicates that no data is available.
Strategic Asia by the Numbers 299 China 6.5% Japan -6.2% Canada -2.5% India 4.5% United States -2.8% Projected GDP growth, 2009 s o u r c e : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2009. t a b l e 4 GDP growth and inflation rates Average GDP growth (%) Average inflation rate (%) 1990 99 2000 04 2005 08 1990 99 2000 04 2005 08 United States 2.6 3.0 2.3 3.0 2.5 3.4 Japan 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.3-0.5 0.5 China 9.3 8.4 11.2 7.4 0.8 3.6 Canada 2.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.8 India 4.8 5.7 8.4 10.0 5.0 6.2 South Korea 6.2 5.7 4.2 5.6 3.0 3.1 Australia 3.4 3.9 3.0 2.6 2.1 3.3 Russia -6.6 5.7 7.1 34.8 15.9 11.3 Taiwan 5.8 3.4 4.1 3.2 0.6 2.1 Hong Kong 3.5 4.6 5.9 6.8 0.4 1.8 Indonesia 3.6 4.1 5.9 19.3 9.1 10.3 Thailand 5.1 4.7 4.6 5.1 1.8 4.2 Singapore 6.9 3.8 5.9 2.0 1.0 2.0 Malaysia 6.6 5.0 5.6 10.5 1.5 3.6 Philippines 2.7 4.2 5.5 9.2 4.5 6.5 s o u r c e : Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 1990 2009.
300 Strategic Asia 2009 10 Trade and Investment Asia continues to increase export exposure to the West. Most intra-regional trade is associated with parts and components for assembly and export to developed countries outside of the region, consequently trade volume in Asian countries is highly associated with developed economies business cycles. Merchandise exports from emerging Asia fell by 70% for the sixmonth period beginning September 2008 three times the export drop during the 1997 98 Asian financial crisis. Asian economies with a large share of GDP in advanced manufacturing, particularly Japan and Malaysia, have seen sharp declines in output levels because these industries are highly correlated to the United States and Europe. Intraregional trade fell from mid-2008 to 2009 as exports to China decreased 80%. Exports to China account for 10% of the exports from other countries in the region, which rely on China to drive growth. In the first quarter of 2009, China s FDI inflows shrank by 20.6% compared to the first quarter of 2008. t a b l e 5 Trade flow and trade partners Trade flow ($b constant 2000) 2000 2007 2006 07 growth Top export partner, 2007 Trade partners Top import partner, 2007 United States 2,572.1 3,232.7 6.5% Canada (21%) China (17%) China 530.2 1,971.6 17.5% U.S. (19%) Japan (14%) Japan 957.6 1,307.2 6.4% U.S. (20%) China (21%) Hong Kong 475.3 845.8 8.4% China (48%) U.S. (54%) South Korea 401.6 789.1 12.0% China (22%) China (46%) Canada 617.4 696.8 4.6% U.S. (79%) China (18%) Russia 176.8 424.0 16.5% Netherlands (12%) Germany (13%) India 130.5 352.5 7.6% U.S. (15%) China (11%) Malaysia 206.7 305.7 4.7% U.S. (16%) Japan (13%) Australia 178.0 245.2 7.0% Japan (19%) China (16%) Thailand 153.3 233.4 5.4% U.S. (13%) Japan (20%) Indonesia 117.9 201.2 8.4% Japan 21% Singapore (13%) Vietnam 35.1 125.3 26.0% U.S. (21%) U.S. (14%) Philippines 82.7 115.8 0.9% U.S. (17%) China (20%) New Zealand 36.6 46.7 2.2% Australia (22%) Australia (21%) s o u r c e : World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1990 2009; and Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook, 2009. n o t e : Data for the United States, Japan, Canada, and New Zealand is for 2006 rather than 2007. No comparable data from the World Development Indicators is available for Singapore or Taiwan.
Strategic Asia by the Numbers 301 South Korea -0.7% China 10.0% Japan 3.2% Hong Kong 14.2% United States -4.7% Current account balance as a share of GDP, 2008 s o u r c e : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2009. t a b l e 6 Flow of foreign direct investment 1990 2000 annual avg. FDI inflows ($b) 2007 2006 07 growth (%) 2007 rank FDI outflows ($b) 1990 2000 annual avg. 2007 United States 109.5 232.8 32.7 1 92.0 313.8 Canada 15.7 108.7 153.4 2 15.8 53.8 China 30.1 83.5 20.1 3 2.2 22.5 Hong Kong 13.8 59.9-13.2 4 20.4 53.2 Russia 2.4 52.5 82.9 5 1.6 45.7 Singapore 9.2 24.1-0.3 6 4.8 12.3 India 1.7 23.0 35.8 7 0.1 13.6 Australia 7.0 22.3-7.2 8 3.2 24.2 Kazakhstan 1.0 10.3 68.0 9 0.0 3.2 Thailand 3.2 9.6-2.3 10 0.4 1.8 Malaysia 4.7 8.4 37.7 11 1.6 11.0 Indonesia 1.5 6.9 23.2 12 0.6 4.8 Pakistan 0.5 5.3 24.0 13 0.0 1.0 New Zealand 2.3 2.8-65.9 14 0.5 2.8 South Korea 3.1 2.6-47.6 15 3.1 15.3 World 495.4 1,833.3 40.4 N/A 492.6 1,996.5 s o u r c e : United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Report, 2008.
302 Strategic Asia 2009 10 Energy and Environment Extreme volatility marked the energy market in 2008 09. China increased energy consumption by 7.2% in 2008, while U.S. consumption fell by 2.8%, representing the largest decline since 1982. Diplomatic exchanges in 2009 between China, India, and the United States, which together account for more than 40% of global energy consumption, have signaled a willingness albeit tepid to work toward decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. In June, Japanese prime minister Taro Aso announced that Japan will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 7% below 1990 levels within a decade, representing a 1% increase from Japan s Kyoto commitment. In March, Kazakhstan accepted a $10 billion loan from Beijing that gives China stakes in a Kazakh oil company and secures access to future supplies; in May, Turkmenistan received $3 billion from Beijing to develop a gas field near a new pipeline able to deliver gas to China. South Korea, Japan, Australia, and China allocated significant portions of their stimulus packages to environmental issues. t a b l e 7 Energy consumption Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu) 1990 2000 2008 2007 08 growth (%) Rank 1990 2008 United States 78.0 91.7 91.2-2.8 1 1 China 27.2 38.4 79.5 7.2 2 2 Russia 25.2 27.2 0.4 3 Japan 17.2 20.4 20.1-1.9 3 4 India 7.7 12.7 17.2 5.6 5 5 Canada 9.8 11.5 13.1 0.9 4 6 South Korea 3.6 7.6 9.5 1.6 6 7 Indonesia 2.1 3.8 4.9 5.2 8 8 Australia 3.5 4.4 4.7-4.2 7 9 Taiwan 2.0 3.8 4.4-2.9 9 10 Thailand 1.2 2.4 3.5 1.3 10 11 Pakistan 1.1 1.6 2.6 2.2 11 12 Kazakhstan 1.6 2.6 4.3 13 Malaysia 1.0 1.8 2.2-1.0 12 14 Uzbekistan 2.0 2.1 5.0 15 World 322.7 369.4 448.2 1.4 N/A N/A s o u r c e : BP plc, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009. n o t e : Dash indicates that no data is available.
Strategic Asia by the Numbers 303 Russia 6.1% China 17.7% Japan 4.5% United States 20.4% India 3.8% Primary energy consumption as a share of world total energy consumption, 2008 s o u r c e : BP plc, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009. t a b l e 8 Energy consumption by fuel type 2008 energy consumption by fuel type (%) Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro United States 38.5 26.1 24.6 8.4 2.5 China 18.8 3.6 70.2 0.8 6.6 Russia 19.0 55.2 14.8 5.4 5.5 Japan 43.7 16.6 25.4 11.2 3.1 India 31.2 8.6 53.4 0.8 6.0 Canada 30.9 27.3 10.0 6.4 25.3 South Korea 43.0 14.9 27.5 14.2 0.4 Indonesia 46.1 27.5 24.3 0.0 2.2 Australia 35.9 17.9 43.4 0.0 2.9 Taiwan 44.7 10.3 35.9 8.2 0.8 Thailand 42.0 38.6 17.6 0.0 1.8 Pakistan 29.0 50.8 10.1 0.6 9.5 Kazakhstan 16.8 28.6 51.9 0.0 2.6 Malaysia 38.9 49.3 8.9 0.0 2.7 Uzbekistan 10.5 83.9 2.7 0.0 2.7 s o u r c e : BP plc, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2009. n o t e : Due to rounding, some totals may not add up to exactly 100%.
304 Strategic Asia 2009 10 Security Challenges Despite relative stability, flashes of military activity in some areas and the escalating war in Afghanistan have heightened regional security challenges. Obama has implemented a new counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, replacing top military leadership and the ambassador as well as increasing U.S. troop levels. In May the Sri Lankan government declared a military victory over the LTTE, ending a 30-year civil war. Russia maintains a military presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, despite signing an August 2008 ceasefire to end a five-day war with Georgia and remove troops from the conflict zone, raising concerns over Moscow s use of military power to achieve national interests. Beijing s efforts to make the People s Liberation Army Navy a blue water navy have raised regional concerns about China s maritime ambitions. Tensions in March over U.S. naval surveillance missions in the South China Sea highlight the navy s growing assertiveness. t a b l e 9 Total defense expenditure Expenditure ($b) 1990 2000 2007 2006 07 growth (%) Rank 1990 2007 United States 293.0 300.5 552.6 3.1 1 1 China 11.3 42.0 139.0 14.0 3 2 Russia 60.0 81.5 16.4 3 Japan 28.7 45.6 41.0-0.2 2 4 South Korea 10.6 12.8 26.5 7.7 4 5 India 10.1 14.7 26.5 18.3 6 6 Australia 7.3 7.1 20.2 17.4 8 7 Canada 10.3 8.1 18.4 22.7 5 8 Taiwan 8.7 17.6 9.6 24.4 7 9 Burma 0.9 2.1 7.0 1.4 13 10 Singapore 1.7 4.8 7.0 11.3 11 11 Pakistan 2.9 3.7 4.5 7.9 9 12 Indonesia 1.6 1.5 4.3 19.4 12 13 Malaysia 1.7 2.8 4.0 18.2 10 14 Vietnam 1.0 3.7 15.6 15 World 954.0 811.4 1,279.6-1.4 N/A N/A s o u r c e : International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions; data for 1990 world total is from SASI Group and Mark Newman, Military Spending 1990, 2007; and data for China is based on Military Power of the People s Republic of China 2009, U.S. Department of Defense, 2009. n o t e : Estimates for China vary widely. Dash indicates that no data is available.
Strategic Asia by the Numbers 305 Russia 1.5% North Korea 2.7% China 4.3% Japan 0.9% United States 4.0% Total defense expenditures as a share of GDP, 2007 s o u r c e : International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2009. t a b l e 10 Manpower Armed forces (th) 1990 2000 2009 2008 09 change (th) Rank 1990 2009 China 3,030 2,470 2,185 80 2 1 United States 2,118 1,366 1,540 34 3 2 India 1,262 1,303 1,281-35 4 3 North Korea 1,111 1,082 1,106 0 5 4 Russia 3,988 1,004 1,027 0 1 5 South Korea 750 683 687 0 7 6 Pakistan 550 612 617-2 8 7 Vietnam 1,052 484 455 0 6 8 Burma 230 344 406 31 13 9 Thailand 283 301 307 1 10 10 Indonesia 283 297 302 0 10 11 Taiwan 370 370 290 0 9 12 Japan 249 237 230-10 12 13 Bangladesh 103 137 157 30 15 14 Sri Lanka 65 151 0 14 15 World 26,605 22,237 20,488 687 N/A N/A s o u r c e : Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions. n o t e : Active duty and military personnel only. Data value for Russia in 1990 includes all territories available for the Soviet Union. Dash indicates that no data is available.
306 Strategic Asia 2009 10 Weapons of Mass Destruction Against the backdrop of the Obama administration s vision for a nuclear-free world, the threat of nuclear proliferation looms large. North Korea and Iran seem intent on developing nuclear weapons, and the possibility of regime collapse in Pakistan raises the specter that new or nonstate actors could obtain nuclear weapons. In April, North Korea expelled IAEA inspectors and threatened to resume plutonium production, conducted a nuclear test launch in May, and then subsequently disavowed the 1953 armistice. Despite Pyongyang s threat to weaponize its plutonium and begin uranium enrichment, the UN Security Council sanctioned North Korea. The United States is engaged in several legislative efforts that will shape U.S. nuclear programs, including the 2009 Nuclear Posture Review, possible ratification of the CTBT, and renegotiation of START with Russia. The administration appears committed to decreasing the nuclear stockpile but is unlikely to proceed unilaterally. China is the only country among the five declared nuclear states that is increasing its nuclear arsenal. t a b l e 11 Nuclear weapons Nuclear weapons possession Warheads 1990 1995 2000 2008 2008 Russia ~14,000 United States ~10,500 China 125 India 40 50 Pakistan 24 60 North Korea??? ~4 13 s o u r c e : Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Monterey Institute for International Studies. n o t e : Table shows confirmed ( ) and unknown (?) possession of nuclear weapons. Dash indicates that no data is available. t a b l e 12 Intercontinental ballistic missiles Number of ICBMs 1990 1995 2000 2008 Russia 1,398 930 776 430 United States 1,000 580 550 450 China 8 17 20 46 India Pakistan North Korea? s o u r c e : International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, various editions. n o t e : Dash indicates that no data is available. Question mark indicates unconfirmed possession.
Strategic Asia by the Numbers 307 North Korea 54+ / 10 Pakistan 145 / 21 26 China 725 / 35 India 60 / 85 110 Estimated ballistic missile arsenals: short-range / intermediate- & medium-range s o u r c e : International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 2009. n o t e : The Military Balance estimates relate to launchers and not to missiles. t a b l e 13 Nonproliferation treaties NPT Additional Protocol CTBT CWC BTWC Russia Ratified Signatory Ratified Ratified Ratified United States Ratified Signatory Signatory Ratified Ratified China Ratified Ratified Signatory Ratified Ratified India Ratified Ratified Pakistan Ratified Ratified North Korea Withdrew Acceded s o u r c e : Nuclear Threat Initiative; and Monterey Institute for International Studies. n o t e : NPT = Nonproliferation Treaty, Additional Protocol = IAEA Additional Protocol, CTBT = Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, CWC = Chemical Weapons Convention, BTWC = Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention. Dash indicates non-participation. t a b l e 14 WMD export control regimes Nuclear Suppliers Group Australia Group Wassenaar Arrangement Zangger Committee MTCR Russia Member Member Member Member United States Member Member Member Member Member China Member Member India Pakistan North Korea s o u r c e : Nuclear Threat Initiative; and Monterey Institute for International Studies. n o t e : Dash indicates non-participation.