Information Economic Outlook leading indicators at a glance October 216 www.vbw-bayern.de
bayme vbm vbw October 216 Inhalt X Inhalt 1 Germany... 1 2 Eurozone... 2 3 World Economy... 3 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators... 4 Impressum... 5
bayme vbm vbw October 216 Germany 1 1 Germany Leading indicators point upwards again Once again, all leading indicators for the German economy are pointing upwards. The Ifo Business Climate Index (Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) has risen as well as the sentix Economic index (sentix-konjunkturindex). In both cases, both the assessment of the situation and the business expectations have improved. The Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry in the eurozone (Einkaufsmanagerindex) was able to almost completely compensate for the decline in the previous two months and currently stands at 54.3 points. The Economic Sentiment Indicator and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) have picked up as well. Furthermore, data on the mileage of trucks reflects an increase according to the toll statistics. ifo-business Climate Index Germany manufacturing, construction and trade, 25 = 13 12 11 9 Business Climate Assessment of business situation Business expectations Purchasing Managers' Index Germany, manufacturing, 5 = no change 65 55 5 45 35 3 7 Source: ifo Institut 25 Source: MarkIT Economic Sentiment Indicator, Germany 25 = 13 12 11 9 7 ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Germany 2-2 - - - Source: ZEW Source: Eurostat Truck kilometers traveled and industrial output, Germany Difference from same month last year kilometers traveled (1 month delay) sentix Economic Index, Germany Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 2% industrial output (3-month average) 2% 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% 2-2 - -2% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-25% - Source: sentix 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: German Federal Office for Goods and Transport (BAG), Destatis.
bayme vbm vbw October 216 Eurozone 2 2 Eurozone Improvement of leading indicators Leading indicators for the eurozone are rising as well. The sentix Economic index managed to recover slightly - reflecting an improved assessment of the current situation as well as brighter business expectations. The Purchasing Managers Index for the Industry in the eurozone went up to 52.6 points and is now again well above the growth threshold. The Economic Sentiment Indicator has gone up just like the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the eurozone. The most recent quarterly Ifo index for the eurozone was published in July. Although the assessment of the current situation has improved since the previous quarter and was described as good, the business expectations have fallen once again. sentix Economic Index, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Range: - to + Current Situation Expectations Overall Index 25 = EU Euro 12 11 2 9-2 - - 7 - Sorce: sentix 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Source: Eurostat Purchasing Managers' Index, Eurozone manufacturing, 5 = no change 55 5 45 35 3 Source: MarkIT ZEW-Indicator of Economic Sentiment Euro area 2-2 - - - Source: ZEW ifo Economic Climate for the Eurozone 25 = 25 Economic climate Assessment for economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months 2 15 5 Source: ifo Institut
2.1.215 2.2.215 2.3.215 2.4.215 2.5.215 2.6.215 2.7.215 2.8.215 2.9.215 2.1.215 2.11.215 2.12.215 2.1.216 2.2.216 2.3.216 2.4.216 2.5.216 2.6.216 2.7.216 2.8.216 2.9.216 2.1.216 Information Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance bayme vbm vbw October 216 World Economy 3 3 World Economy Recovery of global leading indicators Global leading indicators are also generally improving. The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) continues its upswing and is now back above its long-term average. The global Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.4 points and both freight indices (Baltic Dry Index and Container Throughput Index) are increasing as well. However, world trade does not follow the booming trend. The OECD business climate index could not continue its recovery and decreased slightly. The latest quarterly results of the Ifo World Economic Climate from July show a downward tendency. Although the assessment of the economic situation remained unchanged, the business expectations dropped sharply compared to the previous quarter. OECD business climate index long-time average =, seasonally adjusted 14 Bundesbank leading indicator for the world economy long-term avarage = 14 12 12 98 98 96 96 94 Source: OECD 94 Source:Bundesbank Purchasing Managers' Index manufacturing, worldwide, 5 = no change; weighted average of Eurozone, UK, USA, Japan, China, India, Brasil and Russia ifo World Economic Climate Index, 25 = 1 Economic climate Assessment of economic situation Expectations for the next 6 months 12 5 2 3 Sources: ISM, CFLP, MarkIT, ow n calculations. Source: ifo Institut 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Baltic Dry Index 215/216 1. Container Throughput Index and World Trade seasonally adjusted, 28 = 13 RWI/ISL -Index World Trade 1.2 1. 12 11 2 9 Source: bloomberg 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Sources: RWI, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
bayme vbm vbw October 216 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators 4 Appendix: Descriptions of leading indicators The Ifo Business Climate is a widely observed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. It is based on ca. 7, monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The Ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the eurozone as well as the ifo World Economic Climate Index are based on a survey of 1, or 3 economic experts respectively. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) is based on estimations by purchasing managers of industrial companies. The PMI for the Industry in the world economy is calculated by us. It conveys the average of the PMIs of the eurozone, the USA, the UK, Japan, China and Brasil, weighted according to their share of world GDP. The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is based on a survey of businesses from industry, trade, construction as well as service providers and consumers. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) is based on a survey of over 3 financial experts. The toll statistics account for the mileage of trucks that are liable to tolls on German autobahns measured in kms. The change of the amount compared with the same month of the previous year (adjusted for the calendar effect) serves as an indicator. The sentix Economic index (sentix-konjunkturindex) is based on a survey of 2,5 private and institutional financial market participants. The OECD business climate index (OECD-Geschäftsklimaindex) is the weighted average of business climate indexes from 33 countries and is based on company surveys (OECD-members such as Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa). The German Federal Bank s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy is made up of several global indicators (Purchasing Managers Index for industry, Purchasing Managers Index for services, consumer climate for the current economic situation, consumer climate for business expectations, S&P Global 12 stock index). The Baltic Dry Index is an important price index for tracking international shipping costs for dry bulk commodities. The Container Throughput Index is a joint project of the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (RWI) and the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL). It is based on market observations in 72 international ports that together make up about percent of the worldwide container handling of manufactured goods.
bayme vbm vbw September 216 Ansprechpartner / Impressum 5 Volker Leinweber Leiter Volkswirtschaft Telefon 89-551 78-133 Telefax 89-551 78-294 volker.leinweber@vbw-bayern.de Tobias Kochta Volkswirtschaft Telefon 89-551 78-422 Telefax 89-551 78-294 tobias.kochta@vbw-bayern.de Impressum Alle Angaben dieser Publikation beziehen sich grundsätzlich sowohl auf die weibliche als auch auf die männliche Form. Zur besseren Lesbarkeit wurde meist auf die zusätzliche Bezeichnung in weiblicher Form verzichtet. Herausgeber: bayme Bayerischer Unternehmensverband Metall und Elektro e. V. vbm Verband der Bayerischen Metall- und Elektro-Industrie e. V. vbw Vereinigung der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V. Max-Joseph-Straße 5 333 München www.baymevbm.de www.vbw-bayern.de bayme vbm vbw October 216