RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN REGINA AND SASKATCHEWAN Presentation to the Emerging Business Trends Conference Regina Chamber of Commerce November 14, 2012 Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H1 Tel: 306-522-5515 Fax: 306-522-5838 Email: sasktrends@sasktel.net Internet: www.sasktrends.ca

OUTLINE Recent Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan and Regina Births and Deaths Interprovincial Migration International Migration Intraprovincial Migration Comparisons with Other Western Cities Age Distributions November 14, 2012 2

CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA OR CMA Regina Beach Lumsden Edenwold Most of Statistics Canada s demographic and economic data refer to the Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) rather than the City proper. Belle Plaine Pense Balgonie The CMA includes the four RMs around Regina as well as the bedroom communities of Balgonie, Edenwold, Emerald Park, Lumsden, Regina Beach, Pense, etc. The city proper represented 92% of the CMA population in 2011. November 14, 2012 3

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

NOTES There are four interrelated factors that determine the size and structure of the provincial or a city population. The natural growth rate is the number of births less the number of deaths. The direct movement to or from other countries is called, respectively, international emigration or immigration. The migration to or from other provinces is called interprovincial migration. A city has a fourth factor the migration to or from the metropolitan area from other parts of the province called intraprovincial migration. These factors affect the age of the population as well as the absolute size; they are related in complex ways. Most demographic data are published on a census year basis which runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following year. Unless otherwise indicated, the data in this section are from Statistics Canada. The figures after 2006 to date are preliminary and subject to revisions. The forecasts and estimates are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor. The figures exclude non-permanent residents such as temporary foreign workers. November 14, 2012 5

DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: NATURAL GROWTH, SASKATCHEWAN 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 thousands Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in Saskatchewan,1990-91 to 2011-12 Estimate Births Deaths After dropping throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s, the natural growth rate is increasing in Saskatchewan. The decline in the number of births during the 1990s was caused by declining fertility rates, compounded by a drop in the number of women in the childbearing age groups. Recent increases are the result of reversal in both of these trends. 2 0 1990-1991 Natural Increase 1992-1993 1994-1995 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 July to June 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 The gradual increase in the number of deaths is occurring because lower mortality rates are offset by an increasing number of people in older age groups. November 14, 2012 6

NATURAL GROWTH IN THE REGINA CMA 3.0 2.5 2.0 Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in the Regina CMA, 1996-97 to 2010-11 Estimate thousands Births Deaths The Regina Census Metropolitan Area is undergoing a similar increase in the natural growth rate. Natural growth is adding about 1,000 infants per year to the city. 1.5 1.0 0.5 Natural Increase 0.0 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 July to June November 14, 2012 7

DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) to/from Saskatchewan, 1990-91 to 2011-12 est thousands Immigration to the province has increased exponentially in recent years because of the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP). The number of immigrants living in the province is still small compared with other provinces. 6 5 4 3 Immigration Emigration Net Flow Retention of international immigrants has been a problem in the past. How many of these newcomers will stay is an open question. 2 1 0 1990-1991 1992-1993 1994-1995 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 July to June November 14, 2012 8

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TO/FROM THE REGINA CMA 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) to/from the Regina CMA, 1996-97 to 2010-11 est thousands Regina has received at least it s fair share of the new immigrants to Saskatchewan. About a third of international immigration is directly to the Regina CMA. International immigration is adding about 2,500 persons per year to the city. 1.0 Immigration Emigration Net Flow The majority (54%) of new immigrants to the city are in the 20 to 44 age group. 0.5 0.0 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 July to June November 14, 2012 9

DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION 35 30 25 thousands Interprovincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan 1990-91 to 2011-12 estimate Outgoing Interprovincial migration has been and probably will continue to be the main determining factor for the overall size of Saskatchewan population. 20 15 10 5 0 (5) Net Flow Incoming The number of people moving to Saskatchewan from other provinces grew from 14,000 in 2005-06 to near 20,000 in 2006-07. This led to a positive net interprovincial flow for the first time since the early 1980s. (10) (15) 1990-1991 1992-1993 1994-1995 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 The number of persons leaving Saskatchewan is increasing again after the drop in the late 2000s. July to June November 14, 2012 10

PROVINCE OF ORIGIN FOR INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRANTS 12,000 10,000 Province of Origin for Interprovincial Migrants to Saskatchewan number of in-migrants Alberta Alberta is the destination of choice for people leaving Saskatchewan. It accounted for 53% of outmigrants from the province in 2011-12. 8,000 6,000 4,000 B.C. & Manitoba Ontario It is also the most common origin among those moving to Saskatchewan. Ontario has become a more important source in the last five years. 2,000 All others 0 2003/2004 2005/2006 2007/2008 2009/2010 2011/2012 July to June: November 14, 2012 11

INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION TO/FROM REGINA CMA 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 thousands Net Interprovincial Migration to/from the Regina CMA 1996-97 to 2010-11 estimate Net interprovincial flow was negative for the Regina CMA in the late 1990s and early 2000s. This was the main reason why the population was not increasing. Interprovincial flows have been positive or neutral in the past five years. -1.5-2.0-2.5 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 July to June November 14, 2012 12

INTRAPROVINCIAL MIGRATION TO/FROM REGINA CMA 1.2 1.0 thousands Net Intraprovincial Migration to/from the Regina CMA 1996-97 to 2010-11 estimate The flow from other parts of Saskatchewan to Regina is still positive but it has slowed in recent years. 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011 July to June November 14, 2012 13

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: POPULATION GROWTH IN SASKATCHEWAN 1,100 1,090 1,080 thousands Total Provincial Population The combination of demographic factors has resulted in unprecedented population growth in the province 1,070 1,060 1,050 1,040 The population has been growing at an average annual rate of 1.5% in the past five years. 1,030 1,020 1,010 1,000 990 980 970 960 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 est as of July: This is because of a positive contribution from all three demographic factors: 5,500 from natural growth; 11,200 from international migration; and 2,800 from interprovincial migration. November 14, 2012 14

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: POPULATION GROWTH IN THE REGINA CMA 225 220 thousands Total Population, Regina CMA After years of little or no growth, the Regina metropolitan area population has also been growing. 215 210 205 The increase is similar to the one for the province as a whole, that is, an average of 1.5% per year in the past five years. 200 195 190 185 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 as of July: November 14, 2012 15

SUMMARY A combination of demographic factors has resulted in unprecedented growth in the Saskatchewan population in the past five years. The increase was mainly because of higher levels of international immigration but it was augmented by an increase in the natural growth rate and a reversal in the normal outward flow of people to other provinces. The population in the Regina metropolitan area is increasing at about the same rate as the provincial population and for the same reasons. November 14, 2012 16

INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISONS a comparison of Regina s demographic trends with those in the other eight metropolitan areas in western Canada

INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH Victoria Winnipeg Population Growth in Western Metropolitan Areas, 2006 to 2011 1.2% 1.3% Regina is larger than Kelowna and Abbotsford but smaller than the others western metropolitan areas so it is the third smallest among the eight. Abbotsford Regina 1.4% 1.8% Regina s growth rate in the five years from 2006 to 2011 was similar to increases in other western cities. Kelowna Vancouver 1.8% 2.0% Over the five-year period, Saskatoon grew the fastest and Victoria the slowest. Edmonton 2.2% Calgary 2.4% Saskatoon 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% average annual increase from 2006 to 2011 November 14, 2012 18

INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF IMMIGRATION Kelowna Contribution of International Immigration to Growth in Western Metropolitan Areas, 2011 0.2% The contribution of immigration to the population growth was near the average in other western cities. Victoria Abbotsford Edmonton 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% Winnipeg s immigration rate is half again as high as Regina s. Saskatoon s is a bit lower. Saskatoon 1.0% Regina 1.1% Calgary 1.2% Vancouver 1.4% Winnipeg 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% immigration as % of 2011 population November 14, 2012 19

INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRATION Contribution of Interprovincial Migration to Population Growth in Western Metropolitan Areas, 2011 Winnipeg and Abbotsford lost people to other provinces in 2011. Winnipeg Abbotsford Regina -0.4% -0.3% 0.0% Regina and Vancouver had no positive or negative contribution from interprovincial migration. Vancouver Calgary 0.0% 0.3% Much of the growth in Victoria and Kelowna came from other provinces probably retirees. Edmonton Saskatoon Kelowna 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon are still attracting more people than they are losing. Victoria 0.5% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% interprovincial migration as % of population in 2011 November 14, 2012 20

INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF INTRAPROVINCIAL IMMIGRATION Vancouver Calgary Winnipeg Contribution of Intraprovincial Migration to Population Growth in Western Metropolitan Areas, 2011-0.1% 0.0% 0.1% All western cities except Vancouver attract people from other parts of their home province. This is especially true in Kelowna and Saskatoon. It is less so in Regina, Calgary, and Winnipeg. Abbotsford Regina 0.1% 0.1% Edmonton Victoria 0.3% 0.3% Saskatoon 0.5% Kelowna 0.6% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% intraprovincial migration as % of population in 2011 November 14, 2012 21

SUMMARY Regina s demographic statistics are similar to those in the other eight large western cities. It is near the middle of the pack in terms of: population growth rate; the contribution from international immigration; and the contribution from intraprovincial migration. Although it does better than Winnipeg, Regina does not attract as many interprovincial migrants as most other western cities. November 14, 2012 22

AGE DISTRIBUTIONS

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION IN SASKATCHEWAN 18 16 thousands Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2012 14 12 10 8 6 4 The "Echo" Generation Y 12-31 years of age Baby Boomers 46-65 years of age 2 Bust Gen X 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 November 14, 2012 24

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION IN THE REGINA CMA 4.0 3.5 thousands Regina Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2011 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 The "Echo" Generation Y 11-30 years of age Baby Boomers 45-64 years of age 0.5 Bust Gen X 0.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 November 14, 2012 25

COMPARISON OF REGINA AND SASKATCHEWAN 2.0% 1.8% % of population Regina Population Compared with Saskatchewan Population, 2011 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% Saskatchewan 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% Regina CMA 0.2% 0.0% 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 November 14, 2012 26

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTIONS 4.0 3.5 thousands Regina Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2011 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Primary Labour Market Age group 20 to 64 Years of Age 0.0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 November 14, 2012 27

SUMMARY Although the oldest are now 65 years of age, the bulk of the baby boom generation are in their early fifties. Compared with the province as a whole, Regina has a relatively large number of young adults and relatively few children and few seniors. The relatively large number of Regina residents in their twenties and early thirties is because of international immigration, the growth in the Aboriginal population, and the aging of the echo generation. November 14, 2012 28