INTO THE 21 ST CENTURY: CANADA, COMMODITIES AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Presentation for Fields on Wheels Conference, Winnipeg, Manitoba, November 9 th, 2012
Outline Short Run Economic Environment Quick Economic Overview: World, Canada, Manitoba Canada s Global Strategy The Long Run Trends and Issues Questions
SHORT RUN ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Economic Overview World economy is still mired in crisis; the situation is still precarious ongoing Eurocrisis; slowing economy in China and Asia. Situation may get worse before it gets better. IMF revised its projections downwards in October high debt, sluggish growth. Canada doing as well as can be expected under the circumstances but economy is slowing; also a large public and private debt burden. Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Craig Alexander, for example, said in a recent forecast that he believes the debt-to-income ratio among Canadians could climb to about 160 per cent, the level that caused such trouble for the U.S. and Britain. Globe & Mail, April 17, 2012 Household credit market debt to disposable income a key measure of household debt hit 163 per cent in Canada in the second quarter of 2012, well above the previous 152 per cent figure, the revision found. Toronto Star, October 15, 2012. Canadian housing prices a concern. Correction underway. Growth in Canada held back by slow U.S. recovery. U.S. economy showing signs of life but still burdened by large amount of debt; fiscal cliff issue.
US Economy Recovering Slowly
World Output Actual Projections 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 World -0.7 5.1 3.8 3.3 3.6 United States -3.5 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.1 Germany -5.1 4.0 3.1 0.9 0.9 France -2.6 1.7 1.7 0.1 0.4 Italy -5.2 1.8 0.4-2.3-0.7 Spain -3.7-0.3 0.4-1.5-1.3 UK -4.9 1.8 0.8-0.4 1.1 Canada -2.8 3.2 2.4 1.9 2.0 Japan -6.3 4.5-0.8 2.2 1.2 China 9.2 10.4 9.2 7.8 8.2 India 6.8 10.1 6.8 4.9 6.0 Brazil -0.6 7.5 2.7 1.5 4.0 Mexico -6.2 5.6 3.9 3.8 3.5 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011, April 2012, Update October 2012
Recent Indicators: Canada Real Annual GDP Growth: +2.5% (2 nd Q 2012) (GDP shrank in August ) Real Annual Business Investment (Machinery & Equipment): -1.4% (2 nd Q 2012) Merchandise Exports: +0.5% (July 2012). Unemployment Rate: 7.2% (March 2012); 7.3% (August 2012); 7.4% (September 2012); 7.4% (October 2012). Retail Trade: +4.7% (Jan 2012); +3.0% (July 2012) Residential Building Permits: +11.7 (Feb 2012); +4.5% (July 2012) According to IMF, Canada s economy grew 2.4 percent in 2011 and will grow 1.9 percent (down from 2.1 percent) in 2012. According to the IMF: External threats are the main risk, while household debt and high house prices are the main domestic concern.
Recent Indicators-Manitoba Unemployment Rate: 5.4% (August 2012) 5.6% (October 2012) Residential Building Permits: +38.1% (July 2012) Retail Trade: +2.2% (July 2012) New Motor Vehicle Sales: 2011 Manitoba: +7.0% 2011 Ontario: +2.4% 2011 Saskatchewan: +7.3%
Employment Performance 650000 600000 550000 Monthly Employment in Manitoba, Seasonally Adjusted, 1990-2012 (Source: Statistics Canada v2064134) Since January 2000, Manitoba has added 85,800 jobs to its economy. 500000 450000 400000 1990-01 1991-04 1992-07 1993-10 1995-01 1996-04 1997-07 1998-10 2000-01 2001-04 2002-07 2003-10 2005-01 2006-04 2007-07 2008-10 2010-01 2011-04 2012-07
Provincial Comparison Percentage Change in Total Employment, January 2008 to September 2012 (Data source: Statistics Canada) 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.2 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.9 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.6 Percent 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.0-1.0 ALTA SASK MAN PEI Canada QUE BC ONT NFLD NS NB -2.0-3.0-2.3
Real Per Capita GDP Ranking Estimated Real Per Capita GDP, 2011(f/p) 50000 45000 40000 35000 1997 dollars 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Alta. Alb. Sask. N.L. T.-N. B.C. C.-B. Ont. Man. Que. Qc N.S. N.-É N.B. N.-B. P.E.I. Î.-P.-É.
Estimated Change in Real Per Capita GDP, 2000-2011(f/p) 80.0 70.0 71.6 60.0 50.0 40.0 36.7 30.0 20.0 12.5 12.0 11.0 10.0 6.8 5.0 4.3 4.1 0.0-10.0 N.L. T.-N. Sask. N.S. N.-É B.C. C.-B. Man. Alta. Alb. Que. Qc N.B. N.-B. P.E.I. Î.-P.-É. Ont. -4.7
Canada s Economic Strategy Federal vision can be summarized as a sustainable Canada. Two dimensions: 1. Securing the public finances Balancing budget 9.7 billion dollars reduction in program spending over the next three years (total spending still rises but slower than revenue) Restricting growth of individual and governmental transfers (eg. Raising OAS age to 67 by 2023; new health transfer formula) 2. Long term economic growth policies: Smaller government Export market diversification away from US; pursuit of China, Asia and Europe Natural resource development especially in West result will be to continue shifting economic power westwards.
US Share of Our Exports Declining 100.0 Canadian Export Share by Destination (Source: Statistics Canada Daily, April 4th, 2011) 90.0 80.0 87.1 73.7 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 2002 2011 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 United States 4.2 3.8 1.1 1.0 2.1 2.4 0.6 1.2 United Kingdom 8.0 14.7 China Japan Mexico All other countries
World Trade Growing Value of World Trade to World GDP(%) (Data Source: WTO Trade Statistics Report 2011) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1961 2001 2009 2011
THE LONG RUN:TRENDS AND ISSUES
BASIC ECONOMICS Demand for resource and commodity products Q D R = f(price, Income, Population, z) Long run income and population growth bode well for market growth despite short term fluctuations. Income Elasticity- the percentage change in quantity demanded in response to a given percentage change in disposable (after tax) income. Can be positive or negative
A. Azzam "Estimates and Interpretation of Income Elasticities of Demand for Food Products" (2003). Cornhusker Economics. Paper 103. Sausages & prepared meats +0.635 Poultry +0.533 Creamery butter -0.939 Cheese -0.509 Ice cream +0.803 Vegetable oil -2.199 Distilled liquor +0.820
Rocks & Trees Still Important From 1870 to 2010, the cumulative growth in the volume of real gross national income (GNI) due to trading gains is 18% larger than the more common measure of production, gross domestic product (GDP). The 1970s and the post-2000 petroleum and resource boom continued the long-term trend of an increasing differential between real GNI and real GDP
Resources and Commodities an Economic Engine What would twentieth-century Canadian real GNP per capita have been in the absence of any resource extraction or processing activity? He finds: real GNP per capita would have grown at virtually the same rate that is observed in the actual data: 2.07 percent versus 2.01 percent per year, respectively. The average ratio of counterfactual to observed real GNP per capita is 0.823 A ratio of 0.823 is pretty close to saying natural resources contribute 20 percent to the economy.
Resources a Regional Driver THE$RISE$OF$THE$GREAT$PLAINS$ Regional$Opportunity$in$the$21 st $Century$!!!!!!!!! Recent report by Joel Kotkin on US Plains region Over last decade region has surpassed US average in population and employment growth.!! $ JOEL%KOTKIN% For$decades,$the$Great$Plains$has$been$portrayed$as$a$vast$ $region$better$left$to$the$buffalo$and$forces$of$nature.$ $Far$from$dying,$our$research$shows$that$the$ $region$is$in$the$midst$of$a$historic$recovery.$ The$Great$Plains$enters$the$21 st $century$ $with$a$prairie$wind$at$its$back.$ $ $ Office%of%the%President,%Texas%Tech%University% Resurgence driven by agriculture, energy and manufacturing
Population & Income: The Long Run World Population (Source: Folland, Goodman & Stano) Real Per Capita World GDP 1990 dollars (Source: Angus Maddison (2005)) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1500 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001
Distribution of World Income Changing 70.0 Distribution of World GDP 1500-2001 (Source: Maddison (2005)) 60.0 50.0 Percent 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1500 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2001 West & Offshoots(incl Japan) Asia Africa Latin America Eastern Europe
Recent Income Trends: Per Capita GDP 1980-2017(Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database 2012) Nominal Per Capita GDP in US Dollars: 1980-2017 (Estimates after 2010) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 Canada China India Brazil USA Mexico 10000 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Things to Watch For
1. Rise of Asia & Latin America Rising incomes Rising middle class Demand for North American style food products & diets (eg. More meat).
2.European & North American Malaise Financial crisis & effects a North American/ European issue U.S. economy is still a major market but may not be a source of robust growth Don t count Europe and USA out: Are still very wealthy economies-more resilient than you think. Also still an opportunity with respect to specific products
3. Trade & Globalization Europe & North America Aging populations shift in consumer product demand. Service/knowledge exports important here. Possibility of US oil self-sufficiency will have global implications New trade opportunities for Canada w,r,t resources & commodities: China India Latin America (Especially Mexico & Brazil) Africa (South Africa particularly)
4. Food Prices Factors in Recent Increase Is Era of Cheap Food Ending? Rising demand due to income & population growth Weather shocks (drought) Bio-fuel subsidies (corn) Higher input prices (eg. Oil, fertilizer)
Questions?