West Asia Regional Economic Outlook 2015 UN DESA Expert Group Meeting United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia October 2015 Jose A. Pedrosa-Garcia ESCWA The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United Nations or the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).
Main Influencing Factors (i) Violence and conflict: Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen Page 2
Main Influencing Factors (ii) Very low oil prices: 2 nd largest drop in 50 years Lower growth of Chinese economy + stagnating Europe despite strong growth in South Asia Strong US Dollar despite ultra-low interest rates Page 3
Economic effects of conflict (i) Armed violence and terrorism Marginal spending on military is costly Spending as % of GDP in 2012 ountry Education (total public) Health (total public) Military (total) R & D (total) lgeria 4.34 4.41 4.8 0.07 ahrain 2.58 2.79 3.9 gypt 3.76 1.95 1.7 0.43 raq 1.92 3.6 0.06 ordan 6.2 3.5 0.43 uwait 2.09 3.2 0.09 ebanon 2.2 2.88 4.4 ibya 3.02 3.3 orocco 5.38 2.09 3.5 0.73 man 4.32 2.11 11.3 0.13 atar 2.45 1.81 1.5 audi Arabia 5.14 2.11 9.3 0.08 udan 1.7 3.4 yria 5.13 1.57 4.1 unisia 6.17 4.16 1.8 1.1 AE 1.92 5.5 0.47 alestine Page 4 emen 5.15 1.51 2.9 imple Mean 4.2 2.6 4.2 0.4
Armed violence and terrorism (cyclical and structural: e.g. Palmyra) Less tourism: Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt vs records in Spain, Portuga Less Foreign Direct Investments (e.g. Libya) Infrastructure destruction, less trade, rule of law declines 2000 Economic effects of conflict (ii) FDI Inflows to Libya, by reporting country 1500 1000 500-500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-1000 Belgium China Croatia Spain United States Italy France Page 5
Economic effects of oil price slump 20 Budget balance (% of GDP) Lower oil prices => Lower revenues => Fiscal Adjustment 15 BAHRAIN Key: Fiscal breakeven prices 10 5 0-5 10 15 20 25 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IRAQ JORDAN LEBANON OMAN QATAR SAUDI ARABIA SYRIA UAE YEMEN Options: a) Raise taxes b) Withdraw from Sovereign Funds c) Borrow d) Cut spending d.1. capital spending d.2. social spending for importers it s much easier but exporters have started Page 6
Key selected fiscal indicators 140 120 Oil price at fiscal breakeven 25.0 Total subsidy as share of GDP (%) 100 20.0 80 60 40 20 0 000 500 000 500 000 500 0 Algeria Bahrain Kuwait Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Top 10 countries with subsidy per capita ($/person) Page 7 UAE 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 15.0 10.0 0 5.0 0.0 Gross official reserves (billion USD) Algeria Bahrain Kuwait Libya Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE
Economic effects of oil price slump Monetary / Financial effects: Current account deficits (except Kuwait and Qatar) Declines in region s stock indices in 2015 Investment outflow records despite Tadawul opening* Remittance outflows: strong USD but less labor demand Less liquidity (visible e.g. in M&E deals) Inflation under control (except Syria and Yemen) Pressure on the USD peg Worsening prospects overall, despite relief in specific sectors, e.g. record olive oil revenues Page 8
Key selected financial indicators 14000 Selected Stock Market Indexes 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Amman Beirut Dubai Abu Dhabi Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia Oman Bahrain Linear (Saudi Arabia) Page 9
Key macroeconomic indicators GDP growth Consumer inflation rate 2013 2014 2015 2016 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fiscal balance (% GDP) Current account balance (% GDP) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 40 30 2013 20 10 2014 0 2015-10 -20 2016-30 2013 2014 2015 2016 Page 10
Risks and key points Worsening of conflict: stalemate and emergence If Chinese economy slows down => Lower oil prices Fiscal tightening (esp. social subsidies) => Sociopolitical instability Resilience of high-cost oil producers (e.g. increased efficiency) Raise of interest rates by the Fed => higher outflows Page 11
Thanks for your attention Page 12