The Changing Face of Texas: Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic Transformations through 35 Years of Systematic Surveys Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg The Fort Worth City Council 11 October, 2016.
The Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2016) Thirty-five years of s ys te matic inte rvie ws with successive representative samples of Harris County residents, focused on three central issues: 2
Two contrasting economic eras (1949 to 1979 and 1980 to 2014) The 30 years after World War II were a period of broad-based prosperity. The past 35 years have been marked by growing income inequalities. 110% 50% -10% Percent increase in before-tax income 116% -4.2% Bottom 20% 100% 2.5% Second 20% 111% 114% 8.1% 19.7% Middle 20% Fourth 20% The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979) The past 35 years (1980-2014) 99% 47.4% Top 20% 86% 65.5% Top 5% 3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth and the Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted to 2014 dollar. The New Economy
The education requirements for jobs in America (1973-2020) 100% 7 10 11 11 9 12 19 21 24 Master's degree or better Bachelor's degree 50% 40 8 19 10 17 12 18 Associate's degree Some college High school diploma Less than high school 32 34 30 24 By 2020, 65% of all American jobs will require education beyond high school. 0% 10 11 12 1973 (91 million) 1992 (129 million) 2010 (143 million) 2020 (164 million) Year and Number of Available Jobs Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2014. "Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020." Retrieved from cew.georgetown.edu/recovery2020, on July 27, 2015. The New Economy
The perceived importance of education beyond high school (2016) 100 90 To be successful in today s world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma? PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 60 38 44 54 69 30 72 28 78 18 10 0 Total sample Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians An education beyond high school is necessary There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school 5 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2016) The New Economy
U.S. States ranked by percent adults aged 25+ with high school diplomas (ACS, 2010-12) Montana (1) Minnesota (2) Wyoming (3) Alaska (4) New Hampshire (4) Vermont (6) Iowa (7) Maine (7) North Dakota (9) Utah (10) 92.2% 92.1% 92.0% 91.6% 91.6% 91.5% 91.0% 91.0% 90.9% 90.7% Harris County Texas (50) United States 78.6% 81.1% 85.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 2010-2012 three-year estimates for population aged 25 years and over.
U.S. States ranked by percent adults aged 25+ with college degree or more (ACS, 2010-2012) Massachusetts (1) Colorado (2) Maryland (3) Connecticut (4) New Jersey (5) Virginia (6) Vermont (7) New Hampshire (8) New York (9) Minnesota (10) 39.2% 36.8% 36.6% 36.3% 35.8% 34.9% 34.8% 33.7% 33.0% 32.6% Harris County Texas (30) United States 26.4% 28.2% 28.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 2010-2012 three-year estimates for population aged 25 years and over.
Educational attainment in Texas (1990-2014) 50% Percent adults aged 25+ with a college degree or more Austin stands out 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 22% Fort Worth Austin Dallas El Paso Houston San Antonio Texas United States 27% 20% 2005 : Data at city level became available on annual basis 15% 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: US Census Bureau 8
The number of documented U.S. immigrants, by decade (1820-2010) 12 10 From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all the immigrants who came to American shores came from Europe. 8.8 Millions of immigrants 10.5 8 After reform of the restrictive laws in 1965, fully 88% of all the new immigrants have been non-europeans. 6 1965 Hart-Celler Act 4 2 0 0.1 1924 National Origins Quota Act 1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 0.5 10 Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Office of Immigration Statistics
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The demographic transformations of Harris County (1960-2010) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 4 7.7% Asians POPULATION IN MILLIONS 3 2 1 0 0.3% 19.8% 73.9% 1,243,258 6.0% 0.8% 9.9% As 20.1% ia ns Latinos Blacks Anglos 69.2% 1,741,912 2.1% 15.5% As ia ns Latinos Blacks 19.7% Anglos 62.7% 2,409,547 4.1% As ia ns 22.7% Latinos Blacks 19.1% Anglos 54.0% 2,818,199 6.7% As ia ns Latinos 32.9% Blacks 18.2% Anglos 42.1% 3,400,578 As ia ns Latinos 40.8% Blacks 18.4% Anglos 33.0% Latinos Blacks Anglos 4,092,459 12 Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions.
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 1980 13 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 1990 14 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 2000 15 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.
The ethnic distribution across Harris County Anglo majority Black majority Latino majority No majority 2010 16 Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.
The current population of Harris County by age group and ethnicity (ACS, 2010-2014) Non-Hispanic Whites All Others 79 78 77 76 76 71 72 71 39 61 48 52 53 47 59 41 21 22 23 24 24 29 28 29 17 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010-2014 ACS 5-year estimates
The current population of the City of Fort Worth by age group and ethnicity (2009-2013) Non-Hispanic Whites All others 70 70 70 70 68 62 58 57 59 53 54 59 38 42 43 41 47 46 41 30 30 30 30 32 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The current population of Tarrant County by age group and e thnicity (ACS, 2009-2013) Non-Hispanic Whites All others 79 68 73 63 62 37 38 40 60 42 58 44 56 53 54 47 46 49 51 59 41 32 27 21 Total Population: 1,848,423 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research
The current population of Texas by age group and ethnicity (ACS, 2009-2013) Non-Hispanic Whites All others 68 66 32 33 65 64 35 36 61 60 60 39 40 40 42 58 52 48 59 41 65 35 70 30 20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates
The current population of the United States by age group and ethnicity (ACS, 2010-2014) Non-Hispanic Whites All others 74 78 82 68 50 50 53 54 47 46 56 57 58 58 60 44 43 42 42 40 32 26 22 18 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates
The projected population of the U.S. by age group and ethnicity in 2050 Non-Hispanic Whites All others 36 64 38 62 39 61 41 59 58 57 56 42 43 44 46 54 50 50 53 47 56 44 64 36 22 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 National Population Projections, Alternative Net International Migration Series (Constant Series).
Educational attainment by ethnicity, age 25 and older (2006-2016) Less than H.S. H.S. diploma Some college College degree Post-graduate Percent of respondents 57% 24% 34% 29% 20% 33% 26% 31% 28% 28% 28% 27% 21% 24% 4% 10% 7% 14% 14% 14% 7% 5% 11% 6% 2% Asian Immigrants U.S.-born Anglos U.S.-born Blacks U.S.-born Latinos Latino Immigrants 23 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2006-2016)
Percent of Latinos by time in the U.S. Socioeconomic status among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (2006-2016) Some colle ge or more (Age 25+) Working in production jobs or as day laborers <10 years 21% 10-19 years 17% 20+ years 22% 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 20% 3 rd Generation 20% 31% 31% 38% 45% 49% <10 years 31% Personal earnings of more than $25,000 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation 40% 56% 58% 68% 24 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2006-2016)
Percent of Latinos by time in the U.S. Correlates of SES among Latinos by time in the U.S. and by generation (2006-2016) Owns the place where lives S e lf a nd fa mily have health insurance <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation <10 years 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation 25% 45% 49% 50% 67% 63% 58% 62% 67% 76% <10 years 37% Has internet access at home or work 10-19 years 20+ years 2 nd Generation 53% 70% 83% 3 rd Generation 78% 25 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2006-2016)
Attitudes toward immigrants (2010-2016) The numbers of undocumented immigra nts in the Houston area are not a very serious problem. Positive ratings (6 to10 on a 10-point scale) about undocumented immigra nts. Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants a path to le gal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal re cord." Immigrants to the U.S. generally contribute more to the American economy than they take. 63 75 79 67 73 75 77 59 63 50 45 49 45 48 31 35 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 26 Source: Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey (2010-2016)
Interethnic romantic relationships by age among Anglos (2007, 2011, 2014, 2016 combined) Have you ever been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not Anglo? 59% 59% 49% 40% 26% 14% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ 27 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007-2016)
Ethnic attitudes by age among Anglos (2007 2016, combined) The increasing ethnic diversity in Houston brought about by immigration is a good thing, rather than a bad thing. Favor: granting ille gal immigrants in the U.S. a path to le gal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal re cord. 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 70% 61% 59% 50% 80% 67% 60% 58% Percent of Anglos agreeing, by age The increasing immigration into this country today mostly strengthens, rather than threatens, American culture. 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 46% 44% 37% 66% 28 Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2007-2016) Last Question Not asked in 2016
Today s pro-growth agenda Texas needs to develop into a truly Texas Texas cities needs need to to nurture grow a into far successful multiethnic society, one much more more educated appealing workforce urban and destinations, develop while the research accommodating centers with equality of opportunity for all communities, where all are encouraged to participate as full partners rapidly that will growing fuel the populations. engines of a new economy. in shaping the state s future.
kinder.rice.edu /InstituteForUrbanResearch kinder@rice.edu 713-348-4132 @RiceKinderInst