Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201 FOR RELEASE: JULY 15, 2010 DEMOCRATS TOP REPUBLICANS IN CONNECTICUT GOV RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; FOLEY HAS ALMOST 4-1 LEAD IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARY Democratic contenders Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy top any of the three possible Republican candidates for Governor of Connecticut by margins of 11 percentage points or more among registered voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Among likely Republican primary voters, former ambassador Tom Foley leads with 48 percent, followed by Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele with 13 percent and businessman Oz Griebel with 7 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 32 percent are undecided. This is the first survey of likely primary voters and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Among likely Democratic primary voters, businessman Lamont leads former Stamford Mayor Malloy 46 37 percent, with 16 percent undecided. Democrats lead in any possible general election matchups among registered voters: Lamont over Foley 45 33 percent; Lamont over Fedele 49 27 percent; Lamont over Griebel 49 25 percent; Malloy over Foley 44 33 percent; Malloy over Fedele 49 26 percent; Malloy over Griebel 51 25 percent. The Democrats haven t won a race for Governor in Connecticut in 24 years. Could this be their year? Both Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy have double digit leads over all the Republicans, including frontrunner Tom Foley. The Democratic candidates benefit from the state s Democratic registration advantage and they are better known than the Republican contenders, said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD. -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/July 15, 2010 page 2 Democrats also could be helped by the divisiveness of the Republican primary battle, which seems nastier than the Democratic campaign, an unusual twist, Dr. Schwartz added. A total of 41 percent of Connecticut likely Republican primary voters have heard a lot or some about Foley s two past arrests, while 58 percent have heard not much or nothing at all. Only 30 percent of these primary voters say the arrest controversy makes them less likely to vote for Foley, as 55 percent say it doesn t make a difference. Foley s past arrests are a private matter, 48 percent say, while 28 percent say they are a legitimate issue. By a 45 9 percent margin, Connecticut Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Foley, with 42 percent who haven t heard enough to form an opinion. For Fedele, 73 percent haven t heard enough. For Griebel, 81 percent haven t heard enough to form an opinion. Among those Republican likely primary voters who select a candidate, 73 percent say they might change their mind before the August 10 primary. Likely Democratic primary voters are more solid in their support, but 50 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind. Malloy gets a 50 8 percent favorability among likely Democratic voters, with 40 percent who haven t heard enough to form an opinion. Lamont s favorability is 60 12 percent. One month before the primary, Foley has a huge lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele and Oz Griebel. The governor s race is overshadowed by the Senate battle between Linda McMahon and Attorney General Richard Blumenthal and the controversy over Foley s arrests is not having much impact, Dr. Schwartz said. So Foley has been unharmed and voters still don t know much about Fedele or Griebel. The race is closer on the Democratic side, where Malloy is within single digits. This race could go down to the wire. From July 7 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,367 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Also from July 7 13, Quinnipiac University conducted separate surveys of 668 Connecticut likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 854 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. These likely voters were selected from lists of people who have voted in past elections. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 2
THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 854 LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS 1REP. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Tom Foley, Mike Fedele, or Oz Griebel? (If undecided q1rep) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Foley, Fedele, or Griebel? (This table includes "Leaners".) Foley 48% 52% 43% Fedele 13 12 13 Griebel 7 8 7 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 32 27 37 1aREP. (If express choice q1rep) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1REP... CAND CHOICE Q1REP Tot TF MF OG Made up 25% 22% 34% 30% Might change 73 76 64 70 DK/NA 2 2 3-2REP. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 45% 50% 40% Unfavorable 9 9 9 Hvn't hrd enough 42 38 46 REFUSED 4 2 5 3REP. Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 20% 23% 16% Unfavorable 5 8 3 Hvn't hrd enough 73 68 79 REFUSED 2 2 2 4REP. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 13% 15% 10% Unfavorable 5 6 3 Hvn't hrd enough 81 77 85 REFUSED 2 2 2 3
9REP. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a governor someone with years of political experience or a political outsider? Experience 32% 29% 36% Outsider 54 58 49 DK/NA 14 13 15 10REP. If Mike Fedele is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 13% 15% 12% Get worse 6 7 4 Stay the same 45 49 41 DK/NA 36 29 43 11REP. If Tom Foley is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 26% 30% 22% Get worse 5 5 5 Stay the same 42 43 41 DK/NA 27 22 32 12REP. If Oz Griebel is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 12% 14% 9% Get worse 6 8 4 Stay the same 40 45 36 DK/NA 42 33 52 13REP. How much have you heard or read about the controversy regarding Tom Foley's two past arrests - a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? A lot 10% 10% 11% Some 31 34 28 Not much 29 28 30 Nothing at all 29 27 31 DK/NA 1 1 1 4
14REP. Does the controversy over Tom Foley's two past arrests make you more likely to vote for him in the Republican primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference?... HeardQ13REP More likely 1% 1% 1% 2% Less likely 30 26 34 31 Doesn't make diff 55 61 50 62 DK/NA 13 12 15 5 15REP. Which one of the following do you think better describes how you feel about this controversy? Do you think Tom Foley's two past arrests are a legitimate campaign issue or is this a private matter?... HeardQ13REP Legitimate Issue 28% 27% 28% 34% Private matter 48 51 46 58 DK/NA 24 22 26 8 THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 668 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS 1DEM. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for Dan Malloy or Ned Lamont? (If undecided q1dem) As of today, would you say that you lean a little more toward Malloy or Lamont? (This table includes "Leaners".) Malloy 37% 35% 38% Lamont 46 49 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 16 15 17 1aDEM. (If express choice q1dem) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? CHOSE CANDIDATE Q1DEM... CAND CHOICE Q1DEM Tot DM NL Made up 49% 48% 49% Might change 50 51 50 DK/NA 1 1 1 2DEM. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 50% 53% 48% Unfavorable 8 7 8 Hvn't hrd enough 40 37 42 REFUSED 2 3 2 5
3DEM. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Favorable 60% 64% 56% Unfavorable 12 12 12 Hvn't hrd enough 25 20 30 REFUSED 3 4 2 4DEM. Do you think Dan Malloy has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not? Yes 60% 64% 56% No 13 15 12 DK/NA 27 21 32 5DEM. Would you say that Dan Malloy cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 61% 61% 61% No 10 13 8 DK/NA 29 27 31 6DEM. Would you say that Dan Malloy is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 59% 63% 55% No 6 7 6 DK/NA 35 30 39 7DEM. Would you say that Dan Malloy has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 62% 63% 62% No 9 8 10 DK/NA 28 28 28 8DEM. Do you think Ned Lamont has the right kind of experience to be Governor of Connecticut or not? Yes 59% 63% 56% No 20 22 19 DK/NA 21 16 25 6
9DEM. Would you say that Ned Lamont cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 67% 68% 67% No 14 15 13 DK/NA 19 18 20 10DEM. Would you say that Ned Lamont is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 70% 73% 67% No 7 8 6 DK/NA 23 19 27 11DEM. Would you say that Ned Lamont has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 70% 73% 67% No 11 12 11 DK/NA 19 15 22 12DEM. Does Dan Malloy's experience as Mayor of Stamford make you more likely to vote for him in the Democratic primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? More likely 41% 45% 38% Less likely 8 10 7 Doesn't make diff 46 41 51 DK/NA 4 3 4 13DEM. Does Ned Lamont's experience as a businessman make you more likely to vote for him in the Democratic primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? More likely 31% 36% 27% Less likely 14 11 17 Doesn't make diff 51 51 52 DK/NA 4 2 5 14DEM. Does Ned Lamont's challenge of Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Senate election make you more likely to vote for Lamont in the Democratic primary for Governor, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? More likely 48% 53% 44% Less likely 11 10 12 Doesn't make diff 38 34 42 DK/NA 2 2 2 7
15DEM. Which type of candidate would you prefer to see as a governor someone with years of political experience or a political outsider? Experience 45% 43% 47% Outsider 33 35 31 DK/NA 22 22 22 16DEM. If Dan Malloy is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 29% 30% 28% Get worse 3 5 2 Stay the same 48 47 48 DK/NA 20 19 22 17DEM. If Ned Lamont is elected Governor, do you think Connecticut's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Get better 37% 39% 35% Get worse 5 6 5 Stay the same 43 42 43 DK/NA 16 14 17 THE FOLLOWING RESULTS ARE BASED ON A POLL OF 1,367 REGISTERED VOTERS TREND: (If registered Republican) If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Tom Foley, Mike Fedele and Oz Griebel, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED REPUBLICANS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 Jan 21 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Foley 43 39 37 30 17 Fedele 9 12 11 4 8 Griebel 4 2 5 2 2 Boughton na na na 4 6 Wright na na na 2 na Marsh na na na - na DeNardis na na na 2 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 3 2 DK/NA 40 44 42 50 59 8
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy, for whom would you vote? REGISTERED DEMOCRATS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 Jan 21 Nov 10 Feb 10 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 Lamont 46 39 41 28 27 23 na Malloy 26 22 24 18 11 9 12 Glassman na na na 4 4 na na Figueroa na na na 1 1 na na Marconi na na na 2 1 1 na Amann na na na na 5 3 4 LeBeau na na na na 2 2 na Bysiewicz na na na na na 26 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 4 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 24 36 30 44 44 33 36 4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Lamont 45% 7% 84% 41% 39% 51% Foley 33 76 4 28 41 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 5 2 DK/NA 17 14 7 24 15 20 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 Lamont 45 38 Foley 33 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 17 21 5. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Lamont 49% 12% 85% 46% 44% 53% Fedele 27 69 1 23 35 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2-3 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 4 2 DK/NA 19 15 9 26 16 22 9
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 Lamont 49 41 Fedele 27 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 19 23 6. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ned Lamont the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Lamont 49% 14% 85% 45% 43% 55% Griebel 25 65 2 18 30 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 4 5 2 DK/NA 21 16 9 29 20 22 7. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Malloy 44% 14% 76% 39% 39% 48% Foley 33 71 8 32 41 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1-2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 19 13 11 25 17 21 TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Tom Foley the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 Malloy 44 37 Foley 33 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 DK/NA 19 24 8. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Malloy 49% 16% 80% 47% 46% 52% Fedele 26 66 3 21 32 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 2 4 DK/NA 20 16 11 27 18 22 10
TREND: If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Mike Fedele the Republican, for whom would you vote? Jul 15 Jan 21 2010 2010 Malloy 49 37 Fedele 26 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 DK/NA 20 27 9. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Oz Griebel the Republican, for whom would you vote? Malloy 51% 16% 82% 51% 49% 53% Griebel 25 68 4 16 29 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1-1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 4 2 3 DK/NA 21 15 11 29 19 22 10. Is your opinion of - Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Dem Favorable 49% 26% 69% 50% 51% 48% 63% Unfavorable 21 41 4 23 28 16 7 Hvn't hrd enough 27 31 27 25 20 34 28 REFUSED 2 3-2 2 2 1 TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of Ned Lamont favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED DEMS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 63 43 46 43 Unfavorable 7 9 12 13 Hvn't hrd enough 28 46 39 42 REFUSED 1 2 3 2 11. Is your opinion of - Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Dem Favorable 41% 27% 50% 44% 45% 38% 50% Unfavorable 11 21 5 9 14 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 46 49 43 46 40 51 41 REFUSED 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 11
TREND: (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of Dan Malloy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED DEMS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 50 26 28 35 Unfavorable 7 5 5 9 Hvn't hrd enough 41 68 65 55 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 12. Is your opinion of - Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Rep Favorable 29% 42% 19% 28% 36% 23% 48% Unfavorable 12 9 15 12 15 10 7 Hvn't hrd enough 58 47 65 58 48 66 43 REFUSED 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 TREND: (If registered Republican) Is your opinion of Tom Foley favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED REPS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 48 37 34 37 Unfavorable 7 9 6 6 Hvn't hrd enough 43 52 58 57 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 13. Is your opinion of - Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Rep Favorable 12% 25% 2% 12% 16% 8% 24% Unfavorable 8 4 13 7 9 7 2 Hvn't hrd enough 79 69 83 81 75 83 72 REFUSED 1 1 2 - - 2 1 TREND: (If registered Republican) Is your opinion of Mike Fedele favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED REPS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 24 17 15 11 Unfavorable 2 5 6 8 Hvn't hrd enough 72 78 78 80 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 12
14. Is your opinion of - Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough Reg Rep Favorable 8% 17% 6% 6% 11% 6% 16% Unfavorable 6 4 7 7 8 4 7 Hvn't hrd enough 85 78 87 86 80 89 76 REFUSED 1 1-1 1 1 1 TREND: (If registered Republican) Is your opinion of Oz Griebel favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough REGISTERED REPS... Jul 15 Jun 10 May 27 Mar 18 2010 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 16 8 10 5 Unfavorable 7 3 2 3 Hvn't hrd enough 76 89 88 92 REFUSED 1-1 - 28. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Very satisfied 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% Smwht satisfied 38 29 54 33 34 42 Smwht dissatisfied 37 40 30 40 38 35 Very dissatisfied 22 29 12 24 25 19 DK/NA 1 - - 1-1 TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Connecticut today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? VERY+SMWHT SAT High Low Jul 15 Jun 10 Mar 18 Nov 10 Sep 16 Oct 21 Mar 13 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 1998 2003 Very satisfied 3 2 1 2 3 21 4 Smwht satisfied 38 42 39 41 38 62 32 Smwht dissatisfied 37 36 38 39 35 14 34 Very dissatisfied 22 19 20 17 23 3 29 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1-1 39. How much have you heard or read about the controversy regarding Tom Foley's two past arrests - a lot, some, not much, or nothing at all? A lot 6% 7% 8% 3% 5% 6% Some 24 24 23 25 29 20 Not much 32 32 28 35 30 34 Nothing at all 38 36 41 37 35 40 REFUSED - 1-1 1-13
40. Does the controversy over Tom Foley's two past arrests make you more likely to vote for him for Governor in the general election in November, less likely, or doesn't it make a difference? HeardQ39 More likely - - - - 1% - - Less likely 39 33 42 41 36 42 48 No difference 47 54 46 45 54 41 50 DK/NA 13 13 11 14 9 17 2 41. Which one of the following do you think better describes how you feel about this controversy? Do you think Tom Foley's two past arrests are a legitimate campaign issue or is this a private matter? HeardQ39 Legitimate issue 29% 30% 31% 29% 26% 31% 37% Private matter 48 51 47 48 54 43 58 DK/NA 23 20 22 23 19 26 4 14