Offender Population Forecasts House Appropriations Public Safety Subcommittee January 19, 2012
Crimes per 100,000 population VIRGINIA TRENDS In 2010, Virginia recorded its lowest violent crime rate over the last 40 years Violent Crime Rate in Virginia and the US, 1960 2010 800 700 600 500 United States 400 300 200 Virginia 100 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Violent index crimes are murder/non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault 2
Crimes per 100,000 population VIRGINIA TRENDS In 2010, Virginia recorded its lowest property crime rate over the last 40 years Property Crime Rate in Virginia and the US, 1960 2010 6,000 5,000 United States 4,000 3,000 2,000 Virginia 1,000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Property index crimes are burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft 3
700 VIRGINIA TRENDS Virginia s violent crime rate is the 6 th lowest in the nation and the lowest among southern states 600 Less Dangerous More Dangerous 500 400 300 200 100 0 MAINE VERMONT NEW HAMPSHIRE WYOMING UTAH VIRGINIA IDAHO NORTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA KENTUCKY WISCONSIN OREGON RHODE ISLAND HAWAII SOUTH DAKOTA MISSISSIPPI MONTANA IOWA NEBRASKA CONNECTICUT NEW JERSEY WASHINGTON INDIANA WEST VIRGINIA OHIO COLORADO NORTH CAROLINA PENNSYLVANIA KANSAS ALABAMA NEW YORK GEORGIA ARIZONA ILLINOIS CALIFORNIA TEXAS MISSOURI MASSACHUSETTS OKLAHOMA MICHIGAN ARKANSAS FLORIDA MARYLAND LOUISIANA NEW MEXICO SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE DELAWARE ALASKA NEVADA Crime rates are the number of crimes reported per 100,000 population. Violent crimes are murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault. 4
4,500 VIRGINIA TRENDS Virginia s property crime rate is the 12 th lowest in the nation and the lowest among southern states 4,000 Less Dangerous More Dangerous 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 SOUTH CAROLINA TEXAS WASHINGTON TENNESSEE LOUISIANA GEORGIA ARKANSAS FLORIDA ARIZONA ALABAMA DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA NEW MEXICO OKLAHOMA MISSOURI HAWAII OHIO UTAH KANSAS INDIANA OREGON MARYLAND MISSISSIPPI ALASKA NEVADA MICHIGAN COLORADO ILLINOIS NEBRASKA CALIFORNIA MINNESOTA RHODE ISLAND KENTUCKY MONTANA WISCONSIN MAINE WYOMING MASSACHUSETTS VIRGINIA VERMONT IOWA WEST VIRGINIA CONNECTICUT NEW HAMPSHIRE PENNSYLVANIA NEW JERSEY IDAHO NEW YORK SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH DAKOTA Crime rates are the number of crimes reported per 100,000 population. Property crimes are burglary, larceny/theft, and motor vehicle theft. 5
VIRGINIA TRENDS Violent Crime Change 2003-2010 Change 2009-2010 Overall Violent Crime Rate Murder Forcible Rape Robbery Aggravated Assault -21.2% -17.9% -18.4% -21.1% -21.8% -6.9% 2.2% 0.0% -12.2% -4.9% Property Crime Change 2003-2010 Change 2009-2010 Overall Property Crime Rate Burglary Larceny Motor Vehicle Theft -12.4% -0.3% -11.3% -44.0% -4.3% -4.8% -3.9% -9.1% Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center ( 20, 2011) 6
Virginia utilizes consensus forecasting An open, participative process that brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government Secretary of Public Safety Department of Corrections Department of Juvenile Justice Department of Criminal Justice Services Department of Planning & Budget Compensation Board Supreme Court of Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission Virginia Commonwealth University Parole Board State Police Members of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Staff of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Commonwealth s Attorney representative Police Chief representative Sheriff representative Regional jail representative 7
State-responsible (SR) inmate population Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population Inmates housed in DOC Prisoners confined in prison facilities and local and regional jails state-responsible inmates (excluding state and housed in jails federal prisoners) Four Offender Forecasts Are Produced Juvenile correctional center Juvenile detention home (JCC) population (JDH) population Juveniles committed to the state Juveniles placed in local facilities 8 8
Adult Offender Populations
The local-responsible jail population peaked in September 2006 and declined through FY2010 before beginning to level off Local-Responsible Jail Population by Month 22,000 20,000 September 2006 21,294 December 2011 18,742 18,000 16,000 December 2009 18,473 14,000 12,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Change: FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 +4.4% +5.1% +5.1% +2.7% +7.5% +7.2% -1.7% -3.0% -3.3% -0.1% Source: Local Inmate Data System (LIDS) as analyzed by the Department of Criminal Justice Services Research Center 10
VIRGINIA TRENDS Virginia s court system is processing fewer felony defendants, but misdemeanor cases have generally increased 55,000 50,000 45,000 44,723 48,792 50,506 47,372 44,233 41,934 40,000 35,000 Felony defendants in circuit court 30,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 260,000 240,000 238,802 243,898 249,246 255,450 250,604 256,796 220,000 New criminal misdemeanor cases in general district court 200,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Judicial Planning Unit, Supreme Court of Virginia ( 19, 2011) 11
VIRGINIA TRENDS The number of felony re-instatements, such as probation violations, were lower in 2009 and 2010 than in previous years Felony Re-Instatements in Circuit Court, 2003-2010 40,000 37,500 36,164 37,067 36,534 35,000 32,500 30,696 32,163 34,330 32,491 33,515 30,000 27,500 25,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Judicial Planning Unit, Supreme Court of Virginia ( 19, 2011) 12
Arrests per 100,000 population VIRGINIA TRENDS The drug arrest rate declined from 2007 through 2009, but increased slightly in 2010 600 Drug Arrest Rates in Virginia 550 500 450 400 350 300 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Change 2003-2010 Change 2009-2010 Overall Drug Arrest Rate Marijuana Schedule I/II 13.3% 40.5% -20.7% 3.6% 4.5% 1.4% 13
VIRGINIA TRENDS Cocaine arrests have declined by 47% since 2006, while arrests for marijuana have increased by 29% during the same period 25,000 20,000 15,000 Drug Arrests in Virginia by Drug Type, 2004-2010 Marijuana field test kit implemented in 2007 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Cocaine Marijuana All Others Source: Virginia State Police Incident-Based Crime Reporting Repository System as analyzed by the Dept. of Criminal Justice Services Research Center ( 20, 2011) 14
VIRGINIA TRENDS Between 2007 and 2010, the number of felony sentencing events involving possession of a Schedule I or II drug, such as cocaine, fell by 48%, while distribution cases dropped by only 12% Sentencing Events For Schedule I or II Drug Offenses, 2004-2010 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 6,878 5,739 5,539 4,294 4,346 4,069 3,566 2,607 2,986 2,986 2,787 2,748 2,622 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Distribution, Sale, Etc. Possession Note: Data exclude cases of distribution as accommodation and distribution of imitation drugs Source: Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission Sentencing Guidelines Data (CY2004-2010) 15
Local-Responsible Jail Population, FY2002-FY2011 Comparison by Quarter 15% 10% Population growth Jul 2001 - Jun 2007 5% Population growth Jan - Dec 2011 0% -5% -10% Population decline Jul 2007 - Dec 2010 This chart shows the percent change in the average population for each quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year For the first time since FY2007, the local-responsible population has shown year-to-year growth during CY2011 Source: Local Inmate Data System (LIDS) as analyzed by the Department of Criminal Justice Services Research Center 16
The number of persons in the unsentenced awaiting trial category grew by 1.3% in FY2011, the first increase in three years Local-Responsible Jail Population Categories FY2010 Average Change FY2011 Average Change Unsentenced Awaiting Trial Sentenced/Pending Additional Charges Sentenced Local Felons Sentenced Misdemeanants 7,708-6.8% 7,811 +1.3% 5,591 1.1% 5,480-2.0% 2,868-6.5% 2,854-0.5% 2,853 +1.9% 2,867 +0.5% Total 19,022-3.3% 19,012-0.1% Source: Local Inmate Data System (LIDS) as analyzed by the Department of Criminal Justice Services Research Center 17
For the FY2013-2014 biennium, the local-responsible jail population is projected to increase slightly 22,000 Local-Responsible Jail Population and Forecast FY2001 FY2014 20,000 18,000 16,000 Actual (FY Average) Forecast (FY Average) 14,000 FY09 19,671 FY10 19,022 FY12 19,162 FY13 19,254 12,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 FY11 19,012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FY14 19,350 2012 2013 2014 18
Local-Responsible Jail Population Forecast PREVIOUS NEW Year 2010 Forecast FY Average 2011 Forecast FY Average Difference FY2011 19,133 FY2012 19,339 19,162-177 FY2013 19,535 19,254-281 FY2014 19,729 19,350-379 FY2015 19,922 19,447-475 FY2016 20,116 19,544-572 FY2017 19,642 19
The state-responsible prison population peaked in May 2008, but has since declined State-Responsible Prison Population 40,000 May 2008 38,859 38,000 36,000 34,000 December 2011 37,021 32,000 30,000 28,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Change: FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 +5.6% +3.5% +1.5% +0.1% +1.6% +4.0% +2.3% -1.1% -1.7% -0.6% Source: Virginia Department of Corrections 20
New commitments to prison peaked in FY2007 but have since declined, falling 2.4% in FY2010 15,000 New Commitments to Prison, FY2001 FY2010 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 10,061 10,894 11,640 11,550 11,646 12,518 13,296 12,996 12,371 12,070 8,000 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Source: Virginia Department of Corrections CORIS System ( 20, 2011) 21
Between FY2002 and FY2009, probation violators made up approximately 47% to 52% of all new DOC commitments, although this figure fell slightly to 45.4% in FY2010 Probation Violators Entering as New Commitments Percent of New Commitments FY2004 5,753 49.8% FY2005 5,792 49.7% FY2006 6,466 51.7% FY2007 6,685 50.3% FY2008 6,305 48.5% FY2009 5,816 47.0% FY2010 5,480 45.4% Source: Virginia Department of Corrections CORIS System ( 20, 2011) 22
By FY2010, the vast majority of inmates released had served under truth-in-sentencing (no parole) provisions Releases from the State-Responsible Inmate Population FY2000 FY2010 Truth-in- Sentencing 54% Mandatory Parole 32% Truth-in- Sentencing 89% Mandatory Parole 5% Discretionary Parole 3% Death/Other 2% Discretionary Parole 11% Death/Other 3% Source: Virginia Department of Corrections CORIS System ( 20, 2011) 23
The state-responsible prison population is projected to remain relatively stable through the end of the FY2013-2014 biennium 40,000 State-Responsible Prison Population and Forecast FY2001 FY2014 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 Actual (End of FY) FY09 38,387 Forecast (End of FY) FY12 37,381 30,000 FY10 37,724 FY11 37,503 FY13 37,332 FY14 37,304 28,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 24
State-Responsible Prison Forecast PREVIOUS NEW Year 2010 Forecast End of FY 2011 Forecast End of FY Difference FY2011 37,707 FY2012 37,573 37,381-192 FY2013 37,766 37,332-434 FY2014 37,977 37,304-673 FY2015 38,341 37,344-997 FY2016 38,947 37,423-1,524 FY2017 37,531 25
Other states are also experiencing declines or slower growth in their prison and jail populations Nationally, the number of prisoners under the jurisdiction of state correctional authorities declined by 0.2% in 2009, the first decline since 1977 Twenty-four states reported decreases in their prison populations in 2009 The number of persons held in the custody of county and city jail authorities across the U.S. fell in 2009 (the first decline since BJS implemented its survey) and the number decreased again in 2010 Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Prisoners in 2009 http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2232 (accessed 19, 2011) Bureau of Justice Statistics, Jail Inmates at Midyear 2010 Statistical Tables http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2375 (accessed 19, 2011) 26
Juvenile Offender Population
There has been a 22% decrease in total intake cases between FY2007 and FY2011, with felony and Class 1 misdemeanor intakes falling by 6.8% during the last fiscal year Juvenile Intake Cases at Court Services Units FY2005 65,129 FY2006 65,371 FY2007 63,849 FY2008 61,938 FY2009 61,379 FY2010 54,483 FY2011 51,022 Note: Data may not be comparable to previous presentations due to methodological changes Source: Virginia Department of Juvenile Justice ( 20, 2011) 28
The juvenile correctional center population declined by 0.6% in FY2011, continuing its long-term downward trend Juvenile Correctional Center Population 1,600 1,400 Change in criteria for commitment to state 1,200 1,000 December 2011 745 800 600 400 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Change: FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 +0.2% -3.6% -10.8% +0.9% -1.0% -2.3% -10.6% -2.6% -7.8% -0.6% Source: Virginia Department of Juvenile Justice 29
Admissions to juvenile correctional centers have fallen, but juveniles who are admitted are staying longer 1,600 Juvenile Correctional Center Admissions The number of admissions in FY2011 was less than half of the FY2000 admissions 1,200 800 400 0 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 Population by Length of Stay Juveniles with longer lengths of stay now comprise a larger share of the correctional center population 2000 2011 14% 30% 27% 26% 59% 44% Determinate commitment 18 mos. or more Less than 18 mos. 30
By the end of the FY2013-2014 biennium, the juvenile correctional center population is projected to decline to roughly 700 juveniles 1,600 Juvenile Correctional Center Population and Forecast FY2000 FY2014 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Actual (June Average) FY09 882 FY10 813 FY11 808 Forecast (June Average) FY12 765 FY13 714 FY14 697 31
Meredith Farrar-Owens Deputy Director meredith.farrar-owens@vcsc.virginia.gov (804) 371-7626 Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission