Dispatch N. 201 27 April 2018 Recnciliatin in Kenya: Partisan differences and cmmn grund Afrbarmeter Dispatch N. 201 Mikhail Msa Summary After a tense electin perid, a gvernment crackdwn n ppsitin supprters, and mnths f uncertainty, the leaders f Kenya s tw majr plitical calitins came tgether in March t annunce an end t their bitter fight (Wanga, 2018). With their Harambee Huse handshake, President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga prtrayed their mutual cmmitment t bridging a partisan divide that had prduced an acrimnius campaign, an annulled electin, a repeat electin byctted by the ppsitin, presidential swearing-in ceremnies fr bth rivals, and mre than 100 deaths and hundreds f arrests (Nyabla, 2017; Kisika, 2017; Wamai, 2018; Internatinal Crisis Grup, 2018). Even as many bservers welcmed its calming effect, many are wndering hw the tw men s unprecedented diplmacy culd translate int a sustained natinal recnciliatin (Kahura, 2018; Cheeseman, 2018; Wanjhi, 2018). The mst recent Afrbarmeter survey data frm Kenya, cllected in September-Octber 2016, shed sme light n differences that have divided the supprt bases f the ruling Jubilee Alliance and the ppsitin Orange Demcratic Mvement (ODM) since befre the 2017 electins. Different perceptins n the cuntry s verall directin and level f demcracy, the ecnmy, and the president s perfrmance represent ptential challenges t successful realizatin f the Kenyatta-Odinga agreement. Hwever, the data als pint t sme cmmn grund n key issues that may serve as a starting pint fr recnciliatin, including shared supprt fr demcracy and presidential accuntability and agreement n the main prblems facing the cuntry. Afrbarmeter survey Afrbarmeter is a pan-african, nn-partisan research netwrk that cnducts public attitude surveys n demcracy, gvernance, ecnmic cnditins, and related issues in African cuntries. Six runds f surveys were cnducted in up t 37 cuntries between 1999 and 2016, and Rund 7 surveys are being cnducted in 2016/2018. Afrbarmeter cnducts face-t-face interviews in the language f the respndent s chice with natinally representative samples. The Afrbarmeter team in Kenya, led by the Institute fr Develpment Studies at the University f Nairbi, interviewed 1,599 adult Kenyans in September-Octber 2016. A sample f this size yields cuntry-level results with a margin f errr f +/-3% at a 95% cnfidence level. Previus surveys were cnducted in Kenya in 2003, 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2014. Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 1
Key findings Kenyans expressed a strng sense f natinal identity: Fr nine ut f 10, their identity as Kenyan was at least as strng as their ethnic identity, including mre than half (54%) wh said they feel mre Kenyan than (ethnic grup). Hwever, plitical partisanship is relatively strng, t. Six in 10 Kenyans (61%) said in late 2016 that they felt clse t a particular party, mainly the ruling Jubilee Alliance r the ODM. These partisan allegiances were reflected in significantly different perceptins f the natin and its leader: ODM supprters were twice as likely as Jubilee adherents t say the cuntry was ging in the wrng directin, 75% vs. 35%. ODM supprters were significantly mre likely than Jubilee supprters t describe the ecnmy as bad (66% vs. 51%) and t expect things t get wrse ver the next year (37% vs. 22%). Majrities f ODM supprters expressed distrust f President Kenyatta and disapprved f his jb perfrmance bth strng cntrasts t views held by Jubilee supprters and Kenyans as a whle. Satisfactin with hw Kenya s demcracy was wrking was cnsiderably lwer amng ODM supprters (49%) than amng Jubilee supprters (69%). But n sme key issues, ODM and Jubilee supprters were nt that far apart prir t the 2017 electins: Majrities in bth camps assessed the extent f Kenya s demcracy in favurable terms. Majrities in bth camps agreed it s mre imprtant t have a gvernment that s accuntable t citizens (64% ODM, 58% Jubilee) than t have a gvernment that gets things dne. Bth camps agreed that demcracy is preferable t any ther kind f gvernment and that the president shuld be accuntable t Parliament. ODM and Jubilee supprters largely agreed n the mst imprtant prblems the gvernment must address, with crruptin in the tp spt. A united Kenya? Cntrary t assumptins abut deep ethnic divisins, mst Kenyans feel they share a cmmn natinal identity. Acrss five runds f Afrbarmeter surveys, respndents have expressed an increasingly strng sense f natinal identity while placing decreasing emphasis n their ethnic identities. The prprtin f respndents wh feel nly Kenyan r mre Kenyan than their ethnic identity increased frm 39% in 2005 t 54% in 2016, while fewer nw say they feel equally Kenyan and ethnic (36%, dwn frm 45% in 2005) r prefer t define themselves by their ethnic rather than their natinal identity (Figure 1). Only ne in 10 Kenyans nw identify nly (5%) r mre (4%) with their ethnic grup. Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 2
Figure 1: Natinal vs. ethnic identity Kenya 2005-2016 10 8 6 56% 54% 51% 47% 45% 39% 42% 35% 36% 11% 8% 9% 9% 15% 2005 2008 2011 2014 2016 Feel nly Kenyan r mre Kenyan than ethnic grup Feel equally Kenyan and ethnic grup Feel nly ethnic grup r mre ethnic grup than Kenyan Respndents were asked: Let us suppse that yu had t chse between being a Kenyan and being a [respndent s ethnic grup]. Which f the fllwing statements best expresses yur feelings? - I feel nly Kenyan - I feel mre Kenyan than [ethnic grup] - I feel equally Kenyan and [ethnic grup] - I feel mre [ethnic grup] than Kenyan - I feel nly [ethnic grup] While natinal identity is strng in Kenya, s are plitical affiliatins. Six ut f 10 Kenyans (58%) said in late 2016 that they felt clse t a particular plitical party. Of the ttal ppulatin, 3 lined up with the Jubilee Alliance, aligned themselves with the ODM, and 8% felt clse t a smaller party. Abut fur in 10 (42%) said they didn t feel clse t any particular party (Figure 2). Figure 2: Partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 42% 3 Jubilee ODM Other parties 8% Nt clse t any party/dn't knw Respndents were asked: D yu feel clse t any particular plitical party? If s, which party is that? Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 3
Partisan views n the state f the natin Overall, Kenyans were evenly split in their assessments f where the cuntry was headed: 48% saw it ging in the right directin, 47% in the wrng directin. Nt surprisingly, ODM supprters were twice as likely as their Jubilee cunterparts (75% vs. 35%) t say the cuntry was headed dwn the wrng path (Figure 3). Thus, even befre the traumatic electin cycle f 2017, fewer than ne in fur ODM supprters thught the cuntry was ging in the right directin. Figure 3: Directin f the cuntry by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 8 6 63% 75% 48% 47% 35% 23% Ging in the right directin Ging in the wrng directin Respndents were asked: Wuld yu say that the cuntry is ging in the wrng directin r ging in the right directin? Mre specifically, n the issue f the natinal ecnmy, the tw camps als saw things differently thugh nt dramatically different. Tw-thirds (66%) f ODM supprters described ecnmic cnditins in the cuntry as fairly bad r very bad, cmpared t abut half (51%) f Jubilee supprters (Figure 4). Figure 4: Cuntry s ecnmic cnditin by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 8 6 51% 66% 55% 13% 14% 14% 35% 3 19% Fairly gd/very gd Neither gd nr bad Fairly bad/very bad Respndents were asked: Hw wuld yu describe the present ecnmic cnditins in this cuntry? Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 4
Kenyans were mre ptimistic abut the cuntry s ecnmic prspects ver the next year 5 said they thught things wuld get smewhat better r much better. But here again, ODM supprters were mre likely than Jubilee adherents t expect things t get smewhat wrse r much wrse (37% vs. 22%) (Figure 5). Figure 5: Prjected ecnmic cnditin natinally and by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 8 6 11% 11% 14% 22% 37% 26% 11% 11% 11% 57% 41% 5 Smewhat/Much better Same Smewhat/Much wrse Dn't knw Respndents were asked: Lking ahead, d yu expect ecnmic cnditins in this cuntry t be better r wrse in 12 mnths time? In sum, these respnses shw significant discrepancies in hw the tw camps viewed the state f affairs in Kenya, with ODM supprters cnsistently mre negative and Jubilee supprters cnsistently mre psitive than Kenyans as a whle. Partisan views n President Kenyatta As f late 2016, three ut f fur Kenyans (76%) apprved f President Kenyatta s jb perfrmance. Little surprise that while Jubilee supprters were almst unanimus in their apprval (93%), a majrity f ODM supprters (53%) disapprved r strngly disapprved (Figure 6). Figure 6: Jb perfrmance f President Kenyatta by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 8 6 7% 22% 53% 93% 76% 46% Apprve/Strngly apprve Disapprve/Strngly disapprve Respndents were asked: D yu apprve r disapprve f the way that the fllwing peple have perfrmed their jbs ver the past 12 mnths, r haven t yu heard enugh abut them t say: President Uhuru Kenyatta? Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 5
Perhaps an even bigger bstacle t meaningful recnciliatin is distrust: While a majrity (62%) f Kenyans said they trusted the president smewhat r a lt, nly half as many ODM supprters (31%) agreed, cmpared t 81% f Jubilee adherents (Figure 7). Fully twthirds (69%) f ODM supprters said they trusted him just a little r nt at all a situatin that is unlikely t have imprved, and may well be wrse, after the 2017 crisis. Figure 7: Trust in the president by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 8 18% 36% 6 69% 81% 62% 31% Trust smewhat/a lt Trust just a little/nt at all Respndents were asked: Hw much d yu trust each f the fllwing, r haven t yu heard enugh abut them t say: The president? Views n Kenya s demcracy Beynd perceptins f the incumbent president, the rival camps expressed significant but nt necessarily irrecncilable differences in hw they perceive their demcracy. When asked, In yur pinin, hw much f a demcracy is Kenya tday?, negative respnses nt a demcracy r a demcracy with majr prblems were cnsiderably mre cmmn amng ODM supprters (39%) than amng Jubilee adherents (19%) r Kenyans as a whle (27%). Still, a majrity (57%) f ODM supprters described their cuntry as a full demcracy (9%) r a demcracy with minr prblems (48%) (Figure 8). Figure 8: Extent f demcracy by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 8 6 55% 48% 48% 3% 7% 5% 32% 21% 15% Nt a demcracy A demcracy with majr prblems A demcracy with minr prblems 19% 15% 9% A full demcracy Respndents were asked: In yur pinin, hw much f a demcracy is Kenya tday? Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 6
Similarly, ODM supprters were less satisfied with the way demcracy was wrking in Kenya. Still, abut half (49%) said befre the events f 2017 that they were fairly satisfied r very satisfied. Jubilee supprters (69%) expressed greater satisfactin with Kenya s demcracy than did the natinal sample as a whle (56%) (Figure 9). Figure 9: Satisfactin with demcracy by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 Jubilee 24% 69% ODM 1% 49% 46% Natinal 1% 33% 56% 6 8 10 Fairly/Very satisfied Cuntry is nt a demcracy Nt very/nt at all satisfied Respndents were asked: Overall, hw satisfied are yu with the way demcracy wrks in Kenya? Cmmn grund Despite substantial gaps between supprters f the Jubilee Alliance and the ODM in their perceptins f Kenya s ecnmy and demcracy, partisan differences diminish when it cmes t fundamental questins f what kind f gvernment they aspire t and what they cnsider pririty issues that the gvernment needs t address. In bth camps, mre than seven in 10 agree that demcracy is preferable t any ther kind f gvernment (Figure 10). Supprters f Jubilee (71%) and ODM (72%) actually express slightly greater supprt fr demcracy than Kenyans as a whle (67%). Figure 10: Supprt fr demcracy by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 Demcracy preferable 67% 71% 72% Smetimes nn-demcratic preferable Desn't matter 12% 12% 11% 1 1 8% 6 8 10 Natinal Jubilee ODM Respndents were asked: Which f these three statements is clsest t yur wn pinin? Statement 1: Demcracy is preferable t any ther kind f gvernment. Statement 2: In sme circumstances, a nn-demcratic gvernment can be preferable. Statement 3: Fr smene like me, it desn t matter what kind f gvernment we have. Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 7
They are als in agreement that they want a gvernment in which the president must accunt t Parliament fr hw the gvernment spends taxpayers mney. Almst tw-thirds (64%) f each party s supprters demand such accuntability, a slightly higher prprtin than the natinal average (6) (Figure 11). Figure 11: Shuld president have t accunt t Parliament? Kenya 2016 10 8 6 32% 29% 31% 64% 64% 6 President desn't need t justify his actins Parliament shuld mnitr president Respndents were asked: Which f the fllwing statements is clsest t yur view? Statement 1: Parliament shuld ensure that the president explains t it n a regular basis hw his gvernment spends taxpayers mney. Statement 2: The president shuld be able t devte his full attentin t develping the cuntry rather than wasting time justifying his actins. (% wh agree r agree very strngly with each statement) Majrities n bth sides als value accuntability ver efficiency in their gvernment. Afrbarmeter asked respndents which is mre imprtant: t have a gvernment that can get things dne, even if citizens have n influence ver what it des, r t have a gvernment that is accuntable t its citizens, even if that means it makes decisins mre slwly. In bth partisan camps, arund six in 10 priritized accuntability, with relatively small differences in the prprtins: 64% f ODM supprters, 58% f Jubilee, 59% verall (Figure 12). Figure 12: Efficiency vs. accuntability in gvernment by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 39% 33% 35% 58% 64% 59% 4% 3% 6% Getting things dne mre imprtant Accuntability mre imprtant Agree with neither/dn't knw Respndents were asked: Which f the fllwing statements is clsest t yur view? Statement 1: It is mre imprtant t have a gvernment that can get things dne, even if we have n influence ver what it des. Statement 2: It is mre imprtant fr citizens t be able t hld gvernment accuntable, even if that means it makes decisins mre slwly. (% wh agree r agree very strngly with each statement) Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 8
Majrities n bth sides als agreed that President Kenyatta in fact generally respects the law. Almst tw-thirds f ODM supprters said the incumbent rarely r never ignres the curts and laws f the cuntry (Figure 13). While this is lwer than results fr Jubilee supprters (82%) r the cuntry as a whle (7), it was still a clear stamp f apprval by the ppsitin. Kenyatta may have reinfrced this ptential pillar f a recnciled natin when he acknwledged and respected the Supreme Curt decisin that annulled his first electin victry. Hwever, plitical statements by the president fllwing the annulment that appeared t questin the authrity f the curts as well as decisins by members f the executive t ignre multiple curt rders may have served t erde such gains. Figure 13: Des the president ignre the law? by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 Jubilee 82% 11% 7% ODM 63% 27% 1 Natinal 7 17% 13% 6 8 10 Rarely/Never Often/Always Dn't knw Respndents were asked: In yur pinin, hw ften, in this cuntry des the president ignre the curts and laws f this cuntry? In additin t cmmn grund regarding gvernment systems, the tw camps als largely saw eye t eye as t which issues need urgent gvernment actin. When asked t identify the mst imprtant prblems facing the cuntry, Jubilee and ODM supprters cited the same tp 10 pririties and differed nly mderately in hw they ranked them (Figure D yur wn analysis f Afrbarmeter data n any questin, fr any cuntry and survey rund. It s easy and free at www.afrbarmeter.rg/nline-data-analysis. 14). Crruptin came ut n tp amng bth Jubilee (36%) and ODM (39%) supprters. Crime/security was N. 2 fr Jubilee supprters and N. 4 fr ODM adherents, while unemplyment was N. 3 fr Jubilee and N. 2 fr ODM. Cmpared t Jubilee adherents, ODM supprters placed a smewhat greater emphasis n management f the ecnmy, pverty/destitutin, and fd insecurity, and slightly less emphasis n educatin. Still, the tw lists were remarkably similar, and quite clse t the pririties f Kenyans as a whle. Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 9
Figure 14: Mst imprtant prblems by partisan affiliatin Kenya 2016 Natinal Jubilee ODM Crruptin 35% 36% 39% N. 1 Unemplyment 27% 28% 31% N. 2 Crime and security 27% 31% 26% N. 3 Health 25% 25% Water supply 24% 23% 23% Management f the ecnmy 23% 19% 29% Educatin 18% 13% Pverty 15% 11% Infrastructure/rads 15% 19% Fd shrtage 14% 13% 19% Respndents were asked: In yur pinin, what are the mst imprtant prblems facing this cuntry that gvernment shuld address? (Nte: Up t three respnses were recrded fr each respndent. Figure shws % wh cited each prblem as ne f their respnses) Cnclusin While Kenyatta and Odinga have publicly put aside their differences in the interest f a cmmn gd, significant differences that separated the tw camps befre the 2017 electins may still present bstacles t a sustainable plitical recnciliatin. ODM supprters were unhappy abut the cuntry s verall directin, ecnmic cnditins, and the president s perfrmance, and it seems unlikely that mnths f electral strife wuld have imprved these negative perceptins. Indeed, the prcedural twists and ne-sided utcme f the electral prcess may have exacerbated ODM supprters distrust f Kenyatta and skepticism abut hw demcracy functins in Kenya. Whatever cmprmises Odinga and Kenyatta made, the president will have t wrk t win the trust f Odinga supprters, and f ther Kenyans trubled by electral vilence and media silencing, during his secnd term. Imprtantly, Jubilee and ODM supprters fundamentally agreed n the kind f gvernment they want and the majr issues that gvernment needs t tackle. If meaningful pst-electin recnciliatin is t take place, Kenya s plitical leaders will need t build n this cmmn grund. Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 10
References Cheeseman, N. (2018). The cvert reasns behind Kenyatta-Odinga ceasefire. Daily Natin. 17 March. https://www.natin.c.ke/ped/pinin/the-cvert-reasns-behind-uhuru-odingaceasefire/440808-4345728-qwip9x/index.html. Internatinal Crisis Grup. (2018). Kenya: Averting an avidable crisis. https://www.crisisgrup.rg/africa/hrn-africa/kenya/kenya-averting-avidable-crisis. Kahura, D. (2018). Shaking hands with the devil: Kenyans views n the Raila-Uhuru pact. The Elephant. 31 March. https://www.theelephant.inf/features/2018/03/31/shaking-hands-withthe-devil-kenyans-views-n-the-raila-uhuru-pact/. Kisika, S. (2017). 92 killed by cps and civilians in August, Octber pll vilence KNCHR. Star. 20 December. https://www.the-star.c.ke/news/2017/12/20/92-killed-by-cps-and-civilians-inaugust-ctber-pll-vilence-knchr_c1687912. Nyabla, N. (2017). Why did Kenya's Supreme Curt annul the electins? Al Jazeera. 2 September. https://www.aljazeera.cm/indepth/pinin/2017/09/kenya-supreme-curt-annul-electins- 170902115641244.html. Wamai, N. (2018). Peple s president gambit reignites pwer struggle as ld as Kenya. Cnversatin. 6 February. https://thecnversatin.cm/peples-president-gambit-reignitespwer-struggle-as-ld-as-kenya-91158. Wanga, J. (2018). The glden handshake that calmed plitical strm in Kenya. Daily Natin. 16 March. https://www.natin.c.ke/news/plitics/uhuru-raila-handshake-calmed-pliticalstrm/1064-4344940-x5abbuz/index.html. Wanjhi, J. (2018). Five key issues discussed during Uhuru-Raila meeting at Harambee Huse. Mwakilishi. 9 March. https://www.mwakilishi.cm/article/kenya-news/2018-03-09/five-mainissues-discussed-during-uhuru-raila-meeting-at-harambee-huse. Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 11
Mikhail Msa is a research intern in the research and plicy prgram f the Institute fr Justice and Recnciliatin, the Afrbarmeter cre partner fr Suthern Africa in Cape Twn. Email: paintern1@ijr.rg.za. Afrbarmeter is prduced cllabratively by scial scientists frm mre than 30 African cuntries. Crdinatin is prvided by the Center fr Demcratic Develpment (CDD) in Ghana, the Institute fr Justice and Recnciliatin (IJR) in Suth Africa, the Institute fr Develpment Studies (IDS) at the University f Nairbi in Kenya, and the Institute fr Empirical Research in Plitical Ecnmy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the University f Cape Twn (UCT) prvide technical supprt t the netwrk. Financial supprt fr Afrbarmeter Rund 7 has been prvided by the Swedish Internatinal Develpment Cperatin Agency (SIDA), the M Ibrahim Fundatin, the Open Sciety Fundatins, the Bill & Melinda Gates Fundatin, the William and Flra Hewlett Fundatin, the U.S. State Department, the Natinal Endwment fr Demcracy, and Transparency Internatinal. Dnatins help the Afrbarmeter Prject give vice t African citizens. Please cnsider making a cntributin (at www.afrbarmeter.rg) r cntact Aba Kitte (akitte@afrbarmeter.rg) t discuss institutinal funding. Fr mre infrmatin, please visit www.afrbarmeter.rg. /Afrbarmeter Afrbarmeter Dispatch N. 201 27 April 2018 @Afrbarmeter Cpyright Afrbarmeter 2018 12