THE THE CALIFORIII POLL Mervin - - - - - - - - INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE 1946 San Francisco Headquarters 234 Front Street San Francisco 94111 (415) 392 5763 Los Angeles Office 7447 North Figueroa Street Los Angeles 90041 (213) 255 1565.., "::1, (..:... 1.. +: "':~i': D. Field, Director \..'5.:Ol Robert Heyer, Editor J:!;,...; l.? ;~fj < e COPYRIGHT 1974 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #845 For release FRIDAY, DECEMBER 27, 1974 EITHER REAGAN OR WALLACE AS A THIRD PARTY IMPORTANT: Contract for thi$ service is subject PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE COULD MAKE A revocation if publication or broadcast takes pla~ SIGNIFICANT DENT IN RELATIVE STRENGTH OF before release date or if contents'of report are DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS IN 1976. divulged to persons outside of sub6crib~ staff by Mervin D. Field prior to release time..'j. The current widespread social and economic ferment feeds speculation about the break-~ of existing political party structures, possibly resulting in the creation of new political party qroups. TWo prominent national political figure. who have Presidential aspirations, Republican Ronald Reagan and Democrat Geoerge Wallace, have political positions and platforms which could result in either or both leading new party movements in the 1976 presidential c~igd. The California Poll's survey taken last month attempted to get an early measure of how ~oters would react to a three-way choice of Presidential candidates in which Reagan and Wallacl were listed in addition to Democrat and GOP possibilities. The results show that either Reagan or Wallace would capture almost one in five votes if t~ey were running against, for example, Gerald Ford, on the Republican ticket or Senator Hel Jackson or Senator Edmund Muskie on the Democratic ticket. Indications are that ~aqan on a third party ticket would get strong support from Republicans, and Wallace on a third party tiel would do well among Democrats. However, neither man runs well enough now to be more than a strong third place finisher behind the two possible major party standard bearers. Significant Support It is significant, however, that Reagan and Wallace get as much support as they do at this time as third party candidates. Neither has made any p\wlic move to organize a presidential effort outside his present party. It would therefore appear that either man's potential is greater than shown here, in view of the restiveness of the public and the ample opportunity ~ither one would have during 1975 to actively promote a tllird party candidacy. It is clear that Reagan would seriously weaken Republican party chances and Wallace th4 "// Democrats in the 1976 presidential election if either decided to lead a new party movement. Reagan, running as a third party candidate takes a considerable number of votes away from Pardi The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all poulical parties and candidates. It is operated by Field Research Corporation. Its sole purpose is to report public opinion accurately and objectlvtho~cial support for the Poll comes from newspapers and television stations that have exclusive rights within the city of publjcation. The Poll utilizes a~cepted scientific sampling and questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported in its releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed at periodic'. intervals on socially important questions of the day and election issues. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state', from different sized communities, and of all age, economic, political, and occupation groups are included in the samples. -
The California Poll - page 2 the Republican, Wallace as the third party candidate subtracts votes from Democratic candida Given this threat, each man could exert considerable power in the selection of 1976 major par candidates and platforms, Support Not Additive TOTAL DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Jackson o 37% 55% 12% Ford o 32 21 50 Reagan o 17 9 29 No opinion o 14 15 9 Ford o 0 0 39 % 21% 67% Jackson, o 0 32 50 9 Wallace 0 o 0 18 17 17 No opiniono o 0 0 0 11 12 7 Muskie 0 0 0 0 o 0 0, 0 39% 57% 14% Ford 0, 0 0 0 o 0 30 19 48 Reagan o 18 9 29 No opinion o 0 0 0 13 15 9 Ford o 36% 19% 63% Muskie 36 53 14 Wallace o 17 17 16 No opiniono 0 o 0 11 11 7 While Reagan and Wallace each has strong support from their present respective party members, this support does not seem to be additive when they are combined as the presidential vice-presidential candidates on a third party ticketo A Reagan-Wallace combination achieves ( one or two percentage points more than either does running aloneo TOTAL DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Jackson-Mondale, 39% 59% 11% 0 0 0 0 0 Ford-Rockefeller 31 17 54 Reagan-Wallace 0 19 13 27 0 0 No opinion 11 11 8 0 0 If Reagan and Wallace were both to lead separate new part formations in 1976, present indications are that such moves would restore the balance of strength between the two major parties but at reduced percentage levels, Marked Political Attitude Changes For some time it has been evident that the public's political attitudes and political behavior are undergoing marked changeso One symptom is lessening identification with existing politica] party structureso Another is impatience with traditional political processeso And a third sign is the degree b which citizens are becoming more polarized in respect to conservative-liberal ideology, There are more people in California today who identify themselves as conservatives or liberals than there were eight years ago 0 The percentage of people who now say they are middle-of-the-road politically has dropped by half since 1966, The Democratic and Republican parties are attempting to harmonize the conflicting political interests that have become visible within the parties, but they are finding it increasingly more difficult to doo (MORE)
-.- - - - - - - - - - - - - The California Poll - page 3 Voters today identify less closely with the two major parties. Long standing relations: such as those between liberal Democrats and labor union leaders have eroded significantly. Ideological conservatives who make up a majority within the Republican party are increasingly dissatisfied with what they see as a recent GOP drift away from right-wing political and economic principles. And, the latter day wave of "populism" in politics encourages maverick movements that further fragment party images and disorient the average voter. Squeeze on Political Middle People who classify themselves as conservative or liberal are increasing in numbers at the expense of those in the middle. The table below shows the trend of California voter selfclassification on an ideological scale since 1966. Per cent of adult population who characterize themselves as - Conser- Middle- Don't 1966 33% 35 20 12 1968 38% 26 30 6 1970 40% 26 24 10 1972 43% 19 31 7 1974 43% 17 33 7 Republicans have become much more conservative since 1966. Democrats are dividing more sharply between being liberals and conservatives. Per cent of Republicans who characterize themselves as - Conser- Middle- Don't 1966 46% 34 10 10 1968 57% 23 14 6 1970 56% 24 15 5 1972 62% 19 15 4 1974 62% 15 19 4 Per cent of Democrats who characterize themselves as Conser- Midd1e- Don't 1966 25% 35 28 12 1968 29% 28 35 8 1970 32% 27 30 11 1972 34% 20 40 6 1974 33% 20 42 5 e COPYRIGHT 1974 BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION. -30 FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
- - - - - - - - THE INDEPENDENT AND IMPARTIAL STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED AND OPERATED BY FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION SINCE 1946 San Francisco Headquarters Los Angeles Office 234 Front Street 3142 Wilshire Boulevard San Francisco 94111 Los Angeles 90005 (415) 392-5763 (213) 385-7474 Mervin D. Field, Director Robert Heyer, Editor DATES AND TIME OF INTERVIEWING INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURVEY Release #845 November 6 through November 16 0 19740 Late afternoon and eveningso all day Saturday and Sundayo POPULATION COVERED Representative cross=section of California adult publico OVERALL SIZE OF SAMPLE Total interviewsg 1048 THE QUESTIONS ASKEDg Democrats 546 Republicans 301 Others 201 Conservatives 459 Liberals 156 Middle-of-roaders 377 Southern California 624 Northern California 424 "There has been some talk that either Governor Ronald Reagan or Governor George Wallace might head a third party in the 1976 Presidential race. Supposing that happened and you had three choices for President in 19760 0 a Repub1ican v a Democrat u and a third party choice. Here is a card which lists a number of possible candidates if there were three choices for President in 19760 Please look at each set of three possible candidates and tell me who you would prefer if you were voting today?'" "Generally speaking p in politics today~ do you think of yourself as a Republican, as a Democrat, or as a member of some other party?" "Do you consider yourself more as a conservative or more as a liberal? The California Poll was founded in 1946 as a medium for promoting public opinion research. The California Poll is completely independent of all political parties and candidates. It is operated by Field Research Corporation. Its sole purpose is to report public opinion accurately and objectively. Financial support for the Poll comes from newspapers and television stati~ns that have exclusive rights within the city of publication. The Poll utilizes accepted scientific sampling and Questioning procedures in obtaining the data reported in its releases. Representative samples of adults are interviewed at periodic intervals on socially important questions of the day and election issues. Proportionate numbers of people of both sexes, from all parts of the state, from different sized communities, and of all age, economic, political, and octupation groups are included in the samples.
I - - - - - - - - - - - - - -... SURVEY METHOD Interviews are made face-to-face with respondents in their homes. Sampled homes are drawn in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all areas of the state and all neighborhoods a properly proportionate chance to be included. More than 200 sampling points are used. A randomly selected address designates the starting point of a cluster of six to ten interviews. Up to three calls are made on each sampled address. One adult per household is interviewed, selected by a systematic procedure to provide a proper balance by age and sex. SAMPLING RELIABILITY The sample is designed to be self-weighted with respect to population factors, i.e., sampling points are selected with probability of selection in proportion to population. Socio-economic and demographic characteristics and political and social oplnlons are also therefore assumed to be represented proportionately. Standard weighting procedures are used to adjust the final sample to population parameters whenever key variables deviate because of sampling variability or other factors. The sampling reliability of data from this sample is shown below. These figures represent an estimate of average sampling tolerances at the 95% confidence level; that is, the chances are about 19 out of 20 that if the whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the obtained survey findings by more than plus or minus the amount shown below... Sample Size Plus/minus sampling tolerance (in percentage points) 1300 3.0 1000 3.5 800 3.9 600 4.5 400 5.5 200 7.7 100 11.0 50 16.0 POLL OPERATION AND SPONSORSHIP The California Poll is owned and operated by Field Research Corporation, an independent national public opinion and marketing research agency with headquarters in San Francisco. The Poll was founded in 1946 and has been published continuously since that time. The Poll is non-partisan. The cost of operating The California Poll is underwritten by a syndicate of 11 newspapers and television stations in California. Each one pays an annual fee for exclusive publication or broadcast rights in its area. The Poll does not accept fees from any candidates, political parties, or individuals who have any interest in the data being published.