Brexit: Causes and Consequences John Ries Sauder School of Business
Outline of talk What is Brexit? What events led to the referendum? What were the key issues? What are the potential short- and long-run consequences? Where to now?
What is Brexit? It refers to the referendum where Britons voted to exit from the European Union. What is the European Union (EU)? It is a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) involving 29 European countries. It eliminates most barriers to the movements of goods, capital, and labour. It involves the harmonization of laws, standards, and rules where some decisions are made at the European Commission in Brussels. Most members have adopted the Euro as their currency (but not Britain).
The EU is one of hundreds of RTAs in existence
Canadian RTAs Canada - Korea - January 1, 2015 Canada - Honduras - October 1, 2014 Canada - Panama - April 1, 2013 Canada - Jordan - October 1, 2012 Canada - Colombia - August 15, 2011 Canada - Peru - August 1, 2009 Canada - European Free Trade Association - July 1, 2009 Canada - Costa Rica - November 1, 2002 Canada - Chile - July 5, 1997 Canada - Israel - January 1, 1997 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - January 1, 1994 Canada - U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) - January 1, 1989 Pending: CETA (EU), TPP
Why did Britain want out? While free trade and goods and services provide benefits, many Brits were unhappy for three primary reasons: Immigration: EU citizens are free to work anywhere in the EU and Britain is a net importer of workers. Payments: Britain was paying more into the EU than it was receiving (about - 10b. net). Sovereignty: Power ceded to the cumbersome bureaucracy of the European Commission.
Principal concerns
How was the British economy doing? Pretty well in terms of GDP growth and unemployment.
4 GDP Growth 3 2 1 0-1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-2 -3-4 -5 CAN US GBR
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Unemployment Rate 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAN US GB
Immigration Under the terms of the EU agreement, EU citizens are free to work in any member state. Britain is a net importer of people, with about half of net immigrants coming from other EU countries. The last 5 years saw a surge in immigrants from Bulgaria and Romania. EU immigrants to Britain are likely to come in order to look for work.
100 EU2 Net Migration, EU8 Net Migration, EU14 Net Migration Migration Watch UK - Source: Office for National Statistics Thousands 75 50 25 0-25 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU14 net migration EU8 net migration EU2 net migration 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 - EU14: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. - EU8 : Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. - EU2: Bulgaria and Romania
Brexit During political campaigns of 2013 and 2015, Conservative PM David Cameron pledges to hold a referendum with a simple in or out on EU membership. PM Cameron supported the remain side which appeared heading for victory until the very end. On June 23, leave beats remain 52.5% to 47.5%, leaving a deeply divided country. Cameron announces he will resign.
Britain is left deeply divided (Remain in blue)
Immediate aftermath Over $2.1 trillion in value lost in stocks globally. Euro Stoxx 600: -7% S&P 500: -3.6% Nikkei 225: -7.9%
While the British stock market has more than recovered, the pound continues to slide 105.0 Comparative Weekly Avg. Exchange Rates: Relative to U.S. Dollar TODAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS 102.5 100.0 97.5 3,849.10 95.0 92.5 3,702.33 90.0 3,555.55 87.5 85.0 3,408.78 82.5 80.0 3,262.00 77.5 75.0 72.5 British Pounds European Euros Canadian Dollars J F M A M J 2014 J A S O N D J F M A M J 2015 J A S O N D J F M A M J 2016 J A S 18 Apr 16 May 13 Jun 11 Jul 8 Aug 5 Sep 3 Oct 3,115.23 Time Period: 1/Jan/2014-14/Oct/2016 2016 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada
What happens now? Newly elected Prime Minister Theresa May pledges to trigger Article 50 negotiations by the end of next March. Once commenced, talks must concluded within two years. The key issue is immigration: Britain plans to impose limits and the EU wants the free movement of people. A tough EU stance can serve to discourage other EU countries from following suit. Failure to reach agreement will result in the adoption of World Trade Organization obligations.
WTO obligations Goods Britain would face EU Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs (and vice versa) Services Obligations as stated in the General Agreement of Trade in Services (GATS) Investment Limited obligations Immigration No obligations
EU tariffs: Generally low for manufactures Average Agr: 12.2% Non-Agr: 4.2%
Vulnerable sector: Passenger vehicles UK car manufacturing: 1.2 of 1.6 million vehicles exported. EU MFN tariff 10%! Reciprocal needs: UK wants access to EU and vice versa Destinations for Car exports
Storm clouds over London
The London financial sector London is the world s largest financial center The financial industry accounted for 12% of U.K. economic output in 2014. Nearly 2.2 million people work in financial and related services, more than 700,000 of them in London.
Top 12 Global Financial Centres City Rating London 800 New York 792 Singapore 755 Hong Kong 753 Tokyo 728 Zurich 714 Washington DC 712 San Francisco 711 Boston 709 Toronto 707 Chicago 706 Seoul 705 src: Long Finance
Will London unravel as a financial sector? London faces restricted access to the EU. Under the EU agreement, passporting rights allow companies to ply their trade without having to be separately authorized in each country. Most big US, Japanese and Swiss banks use London as their hub for passportinginto other EU markets. There is a threat to the clearing services that London houses provide for trading euro-denominated financial instruments.
Will London unravel? Probably not While Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are eager to grab business form London Agglomeration forces tie financial companies, supporting professional services, and workers to London The fall of the pound has significantly lowered British costs relative to competing locations. Free of EU regulations, Britain could implement favourable legislation including abolishing the EU-wide cap on bankers bonuses.
The Financial Industry Cluster: Factors
How will Canada and BC be affected? Very little We do limited business with Britain and the EU. Most of our trade is with the US, Mexico and Asia. Our leading export to Britain is gold!
Canadian exports, 2015, $b United States 402.2 China 20.2 United Kingdom 16.0 Japan 9.8 Mexico 6.6 India 4.3 Korea, South 4.0 Hong Kong 3.9 Germany 3.6 Netherlands 3.6 Total All Countries 524.0
Canadian Exports to Great Britain by Product 7108 - Gold 9.41 7501 - Nickel 1.25 7112 - Waste and Scrap of Precious Metals 0.38 2844 - Uranium and Other Radioactive Elements 0.38 2709 - Crude Petroleum 0.33 8802 - Helicopters, Airplanes and Spacecraft 0.33 8803 - Parts of Helicopters, Airplanes, and Spacecraft 0.22 4401 - Fuel Wood 0.19 2601 - Iron Ores and Concentrates 0.13 1001 - Wheat 0.12 9014 - Direction Finding Instruments and Appliances 0.11 8411 - Turbo-Jets, Turbo-Propellers and Other Gas Turbines 0.11 0713 - Leguminous Vegetables 0.11 4801 - Newsprint 0.10 8427 - Self-Propelled Works Trucks 0.09 Total (All Products) 15.95
Canadian imports, 2015, $b United States 285.2 China 65.6 Mexico 31.2 Germany 17.3 Japan 14.8 United Kingdom 9.2 Korea, South 7.9 Italy 7.4 France 6.8 Taiwan 5.5 Total All Countries 535.6
BC exports to GB, 2015, $m. (out of $36.7b. total exports) 4401 - Fuel Wood 159.4 4407 - Lumber 49.9 8802 - Helicopters, Airplanes and Spacecraft 35.6 1604 - Fish 32.5 2701 - Coal 21.2 7113 - Jewellery 14.1 4412 - Plywood 13.2 Total (All Products) 474.9
Opportunities for Canada Britain has become a much cheaper place to visit! Were Britain to lower its tariffs on agricultural products, Canada s exports could increase. There is the potential for Canadian to have better opportunities to live and work in Britain when EU citizens lose privileged access.
In conclusion Brexit was triggered by resentment towards immigration, a manifestation of nationalist movements worldwide (think Trump). It leaves Britain with tremendous uncertainty as it moves to renegotiate with the EU. I personally do not see London unraveling as a financial center nor high tariffs between the EU and Great Britain. One casualty is the currency but it may very well rebound. Canada has limited business in Europe and will largely watch from the sidelines.
Thanks for listening. Questions? Comments?