Center for Western Priorities Colorado Public Lands PREPARED BY PURPLE STRATEGIES FEBRUARY 2016
Methodology Focus Groups Polling PURPLE INSIGHTS CONDUCTED THE FOLLOWING INTERVIEWS BETWEEN JANUARY 20 AND 26, 2016 Purple Insights conducted three (3), 75-minute focus groups among the following audiences: Golden, CO January 27, 2016 Voters: Swing Democrats Swing Republicans Swing Independents Colorado Voters: 1,083 interviews of likely voters Includes an oversample of LaRno voters and oversamples in Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer counres Margin of error is +/-3.6% and higher for subgroups 2
Key Findings Colorado voters appreciate the proximity to mountains and open spaces, take pride in the state s public lands, and acknowledge that this is what makes Colorado special. ProtecRng public lands is a priority to voters even in the face of economic development. For candidates, there are many areas of common ground on public land proposals without alienarng voters. Candidates who promote selling off public lands are especially vulnerable. Voters would like to see a push toward renewable energy, though Republicans also value sources like natural gas. Balanced messaging on energy and development on public lands is the key to swing voters candidates who go too far in either direcron lost to balanced candidates. Government agencies are generally well-liked, especially the Park Service and Forest Service. Outdoor advocates and enthusiasts are key messengers and target audiences for communicaron. 3
Colorado voters appreciate the proximity to mountains and open spaces, take pride in the state s public lands, and acknowledge that this is what makes Colorado special. 4
COLORADO LIVING The mountains and outdoors are what makes Colorado stand out as a place to live What do you like most about living in Colorado? (Open End) One of the things that makes Colorado beautiful is the reason we have so much land. If you think about it, when you go to a park, everybody is happy at the park. We re not all tied together. We can walk around. Swing Republican It s just really outdoor friendly with the mountains and lots of things to do." Swing Democrat I just think there are so many different things that you can do. You can go on the lake. You can go camping. You can go hiking, skiing, ice skating. It s a beautiful state. We need to protect it. It s outdoor people that live here. Swing Independent The mountains and outdoors are what make living in Colorado special 99% Agree 84% Strongly Agree 5
COLORADO LIVING The mountains and outdoors are what makes Colorado stand out as a place to live 6
COLORADO LIVING Public lands are seen as essential to Colorado s economy and quality of life National parks, forests, monuments, and wildlife refuges are an essential part of Colorado s quality of life 96% Agree 79% Strongly Agree I think in Colorado you ve got a lot of people that choose to live near open spaces and spaces that they can go walk their dog. It s not just city everywhere. It s not just developments everywhere. I think that was as Coloradans really value that. Swing Independent National parks, forests, monuments, and wildlife refuges are an essential part of Colorado s economy 93% Agree 70% Strongly Agree There are a lot of people who love nature. This is the perfect state to do that. A lot of anglers, hunters, all that kind of stuff, hikers, mountain biking is a big one. In Aspen, every time there is no more snow, the first one to get out there are mountain bikers. That s where our economy comes from. Swing Republican 7
COLORADO LIVING Colorado voters want authenticity from candidates and for them to take part in the outdoors, not just dress the part I think people like real people, not the fake politician. We re all pretty down to earth. We like simple things like riding our bikes and going fishing. When you come in and you re doing the whole, I m one of you, and it just comes off as fake. If you re just who you are, that does better with everyone can they can relate to that. That s who they want to be, just who they are. Swing Republican When [people] come here, for God s sake, don t wear a pair of jeans and cowboy boots and try to sound like you re from Texas. Come here and just be real. Swing Independent 8
Protecting public lands is a priority to voters even in the face of economic development. 9
ISSUES A majority say a candidate s view on public lands is very important Key concerns center around overdevelopment, access and respect for the land & wildlife. Economy/Jobs EducaRon Health care Federal budget Issue Importance Showing Very Important Public lands, water, & wildlife Taxes Agriculture 56 59 59 63 69 75 79 93% Total Important [The outdoors has] got to be protected as far as I m concerned. No housing out there. Try and keep the housing on the plains as much as possible. So near major highways, maybe. But try to keep some back country out for nature. We ve got to have it. Swing Independent I'd say as an angler and a hunter, we re having a lot more issues now with land access and development on public lands. It s becoming a real big issue for us where we go hunting. My dad and I have been hunting up in Rifle, Colorado most of our lives and we re seeing the deer herds just completely decrease in population where they re just migrating out of the areas because of shale development. Swing Democrat ImmigraRon DomesRc energy producron Climate change 42 TransportaRon 38 49 53 I can tell you as somebody who has lived here for a while, I do respect the land. I go fishing and I do respect what I do. I know people are moving here and I see them not follow certain regulations on the park lands. It is important to us as Coloradans just to have the outdoors and keep them well. Swing Republican 10
ISSUES However, when in direct competition, the outdoors and it s preservation outweigh the economy SRll, some believe there is a balance that can be achieved. When it comes to Colorado s land and outdoor spaces, which one of these statements do you most agree with? COLORADO VOTERS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS REPUBLICANS Protecting our outdoor spaces should be given priority, even at the risk of closing some land to future energy development Economic growth should be given priority, even at the risk of closing some outdoor spaces to hunting, fishing, and hiking 62% 75% 65% 45% 18% 12% 15% 28% I lean towards conservation. I think if we get creative enough there s usually a way to balance that and find a happy ending for both sides. Swing Democrat I think there needs to be balance with everything. Too much of anything is a bad thing. That s kind of how I go about most issues. Yeah, we have beautiful land that we need to protect I think you can balance the two of them. I don t know exactly how but it seems like every situation like that, there are only two extremes. There has to be a middle ground that people are willing to agree upon. Swing Democrat but we also have a lot of people living here who need energy, who need places to live, who need food. Swing Republican 11
ISSUES Few believe there is too much public land Only Democrats and Independents want to see more land set aside. Do you AGREE or DISAGREE with the following? There is too much public land in Colorado Do you believe Colorado should protect new land as parks, national monuments, or wilderness, or do you believe we already have enough protected areas? COLORADO VOTERS 73% Disagree 58% Protect new land DEMOCRATS 75% Disagree 76% Protect new land INDEPENDENTS 74% Disagree 62% Protect new land REPUBLICANS 69% Disagree 57% Already have enough 12
For candidates, there are many areas of common ground on public land proposals without alienating voters. Candidates who promote selling off public lands are especially vulnerable. 13
PUBLIC LANDS PROPOSALS A strong public lands platform should touch upon job creation, access, and land and wildlife preservation Also, given the popularity of the NPS, many want to increase their funding. Top-Tier Public Lands Proposals Would the following proposals regarding public lands that a candidate may offer make you more or less likely to support that candidate? COLORADO VOTERS More Likely Less Likely Showing More Likely / Less Likely DEM IND GOP Help create outdoor recreation jobs 78 6 89 / 3 78 / 6 66 / 10 SPLIT A: Protect access to outdoor spaces 74 9 85 / 4 78 / 4 58 / 19 Increase protection of wildlife 71 11 85 / 4 77 / 8 51 / 20 SPLIT B: Protect access to outdoor spaces for hunters and anglers 70 9 72 / 9 69 / 12 68 / 5 Increase protection of public lands 67 12 83 / 4 73 / 10 46 / 22 Increase funding for the National Park Service 66 13 80 / 6 72 / 12 44 / 23 Increase access to lands for mountain bikers, paddlers, and other outdoor enthusiasts 65 15 72 / 14 73 / 10 52 / 21 14
PUBLIC LANDS PROPOSALS When it comes to energy and development, voters reject the extremes and call for a middle ground Energy & Public Lands Proposals Would the following proposals regarding public lands that a candidate may offer make you more or less likely to support that candidate? COLORADO VOTERS More Likely Less Likely Showing More Likely / Less Likely DEM IND GOP MIDDLE GROUND Encourage the development of solar and wind energy projects on public lands 67 16 81 / 8 74 / 12 46 / 29 Continue oil and gas drilling on public lands, but with additional environmental protections in place Reduce over time the amount of coal mining allowed on public lands 52 48 29 25 47 / 36 53 / 27 55 / 25 68 / 12 53 / 21 23 / 42 Ban new coal, oil, and gas leases on public lands 41 35 62 / 18 43 / 30 18 / 57 EXTREME SPLIT A: Prohibit energy development of any kind on public lands SPLIT B: Prohibit energy development of any kind on public lands, including large scale solar and wind projects 24 32 54 42 44 / 26 35 / 40 17 / 60 30 / 44 23 / 56 19 / 61 Open up public lands to more private development 20 63 16 / 70 21 / 64 23 / 57 15
PUBLIC LANDS PROPOSALS Candidates who promote selling off public lands are especially vulnerable Bottom-Tier Public Lands Proposals Would the following proposals regarding public lands that a candidate may offer make you more or less likely to support that candidate? COLORADO VOTERS More Likely Less Likely Showing More Likely / Less Likely DEM IND GOP Open up more wilderness areas to motorized vehicle use 22 55 19 / 62 28 / 49 22 / 51 Open up public lands to more private development 20 63 16 / 70 21 / 64 23 / 57 Sell public lands to reduce the budget deficit 19 62 15 / 68 19 / 63 24 / 55 I feel like I want a candidate to say that they re going to protect the public lands. The thought of selling off to private lands is not something I d be very happy to hear. Swing Independent I feel like selling off public lands is not a sustainable way to fix budget issues. It s like selling your car and then you can t take your car to work. It s a one-time sell and then what do you do when you continue to spend billions? When I said earlier I like to have people to have a plan behind it, your plan is to sell public land and when you run out of public land, what do you do? Swing Republican 16
Voters would like to see a push toward renewable energy, though Republicans also value sources like natural gas. 17
ENERGY ISSUES Renewables are seen as the energy of the future, Republicans prioritize natural gas and solar over oil What energy source or sources should we prioritize in Colorado and the American West over the next ten years? 58 48 28 16 10 9 Solar Wind Natural Gas Oil Nuclear Coal DEM 76 64 16 6 6 3 IND 66 52 25 12 8 7 GOP 35 28 42 29 15 18 18
ENERGY ISSUES On energy proposals, there is some consensus on cleaner production, increased royalties and renewables Other proposals have a more parrsan Rlt. Energy Proposals Would the following positions a candidate might take make you more or less likely to support that candidate? COLORADO VOTERS More Likely Less Likely Showing More Likely / Less Likely DEM IND GOP Expand the use of energy sources like wind and solar 70 13 85 / 5 78 / 9 46 / 25 Make traditional energy sources like oil, gas, and coal cleaner burning and more efficient 66 15 67 / 18 69 / 14 65 / 12 Increase royalties that oil companies pay to taxpayers for oil drilling on public lands 48 21 53 / 22 53 / 19 40 / 22 Keep oil and gas in the ground to protect our climate and air 46 31 72 / 9 49 / 26 18 / 57 Allow more drilling in the US to access America s vast energy resources 45 32 21 / 55 41 / 31 74 / 9 Expand the use of energy sources like oil and gas 44 31 25 / 53 44 / 29 66 / 10 Build the Keystone XL pipeline 38 35 15 / 58 34 / 34 68 / 10 19
ENERGY ISSUES Fracking is still a divisive issue Voters understanding of fracking can also vary greatly. CO VOTERS DEM IND OPPOSE 66 41 44 As you may know, fracking, also known as hydraulic fracturing, is the process of extracjng natural gas or oil by injecjng a high-pressure mixture of water, sand, and chemicals into shale rock. Do you support or oppose the pracjce of fracking to extract natural gas or oil in Colorado? 47 29 30 12 23 32 26 43 49 FAVOR Fracking. That s terrifying to me. It really has, as I ve said, changed the landscape a lot in certain areas. Swing Democrat From what I ve read [fracking] is kind of minimal impact. They go in, they take it out, and then they re gone. So it would almost be they have an entry and exit type strategy. So it would kind of have a minimal impact. Swing Independent GOP 14 7 61 78 Darker shade = Strong intensity 20
Balanced messaging on energy and development on public lands is the key to swing voters candidates who go too far in either direction lost to balanced candidates. 21
MESSAGING Focus group participants believe there is a balance between energy development and public lands I still think it s a balance. I know that s kind of easy to say but natural gas and energy development here in the state has really helped our economy a lot but there is a tradeoff to that. We as citizens have to realize that if we re going to be using those resources, we re going to have to give up other things such as our access to land. We re very outdoors kind of people but we have to realize if we want this type of economy where our cities are growing, our populations are growing, we re going to have lose some of the things we did like. Swing Democrat I think the reality is they have to work in partnership. The economy as far as oil, you ve got your big snow ski resorts. They ve got a lot of traffic going up there. There s the economic aspect, which is huge. We need the economy. But at the same time, the companies have to be willing to think about the environment and maybe make some changes, or be willing to work around. I don t want to necessarily say the word regulations, but they need to work with each other to do what s best. Swing Independent I don t necessarily know the answer. I just know that when we re creative and we think outside of the box there is usually always some kind of solution. All the money that s made in this energy production, if some of it is thrown back into some of that solution I think it takes a brainstorming team of creative people to figure it out. Swing Democrat There are things in Colorado that are important to our economy such as oil and fracking or mining. And while those things need to continue, just make sure they re done in a way that s still treating the land well. Swing Independent 22
MESSAGING Focus group participants believe there is a balance between energy development and public lands 23
MESSAGING Independents also gravitate toward a balanced approach from a candidate over party affiliation Republicans don t lose their base with a pro-conservaron message. Now I am going to read you a couple of descriptions of potential political candidates. Between the following two candidates, which would you be more inclined to vote for? CO VOTERS DEM IND GOP A Democratic candidate who believes that the outdoors are what define Colorado; who will make protecting and providing public access to our land, water, and wildlife a top priority; who will support our recreation economy and ranching; and who believes that we can have energy development on Colorado lands if we manage it in a balanced way and prioritize wind and solar power. A Republican candidate who believes states should be able to manage their own public lands, not federal bureaucrats; who supports selling some public lands to close the budget deficit; and who prioritizes expanding domestic oil and gas production to spur economic development and create jobs. 54 89 53 16 33 6 21 72 A Democratic candidate who will make protecting our land, water, and air a top priority and increase funding for environmental programs; who believes oil, gas, and coal should stay in the ground and be replaced by renewable sources, like wind and solar; and who says together we can create a cleaner future for generations to come. A Republican candidate who believes that the outdoors are what define Colorado; who will make protecting and providing public access to our land, water, and wildlife a top priority; who will support our recreation economy and ranching; and who believes that we can have energy development on Colorado lands if we manage it in a balanced way and prioritize wind and solar power. 44 84 38 7 45 10 40 88 24
Government agencies are generally well-liked, especially the Park Service and Forest Service. 25
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT There is a clear distinction between government agencies, with only park and forest services universally popular Republicans have a parrcularly poor opinion of the EPA. Favorability Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable CO PARKS & WILDLIFE 25 26 31 52 27 Never Heard/ Don t know 3 31 32 35 4 12 11 19 8 22 Showing Favorable / Unfavorable TOTAL DEM IND GOP 5 93 / 3 94 / 2 92 /3 92 / 3 6 90 / 4 92 / 2 88 / 5 88 / 6 11 83 / 5 84 / 4 85 / 5 82 / 7 10 58 / 32 79 / 11 60 / 30 36 / 56 29 59 US FOREST SERVICE BLM Very Unfavorable 64 NATIONAL PARK SERVICE EPA Somewhat Unfavorable 59 / 19 65 / 9 59 / 21 53 / 28
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT There are also those who have issues with federal control over local issues, including Democrats CO VOTERS DEM IND GOP We need to get federal bureaucrats out of the way when it comes to managing our lands and resources Agree Disagree 67 49 67 88 23 38 21 8 Would the following positions a candidate might take make you more or less likely to support that candidate? CO VOTERS DEM IND GOP Give local communities more authority to regulate drilling and fracking operations More Likely Less Likely 56 54 57 58 24 26 23 22 27
Outdoor advocates and enthusiasts are key messengers and target audiences for communication. 28
MESSENGERS Advocates for the outdoors and the environment are generally well-liked Environmental groups carry a stronger negarve connotaron than conservaron groups. Favorability Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Never Heard/ Don t know Showing Favorable / Unfavorable TOTAL DEM IND GOP OUTDOOR RECREATION GROUPS 47 32 4 3 14 79 / 7 84 / 4 84 / 3 71 / 13 SPORTSMEN GROUPS 41 34 7 3 15 75 / 10 63 / 18 80 / 6 86 / 5 OUTDOOR RECREATION COMPANIES (i.e. REI) 38 35 24 72 / 4 71 / 3 70 / 6 75 / 4 LOCAL RECREATION COMPANIES 36 32 28 68 / 3 71 / 3 71 / 3 64 / 4 CONSERVATION GROUPS 32 40 8 7 14 72 / 14 86 / 3 70 / 12 58 / 29 ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS 28 35 14 12 12 63 / 25 81 / 10 65 / 22 42 / 45 29
Key Audiences 30
KEY AUDIENCES Latino and swing county voters core beliefs are propublic lands, much like Independents When it comes to Colorado s land and outdoor spaces, which one of these statements do you most agree with? INDEP VOTERS LATINO VOTERS ARAPAHOE COUNTY JEFFERSON COUNTY LARIMER COUNTY Protecting our outdoor spaces should be given priority, even at the risk of closing some land to future energy development Economic growth should be given priority, even at the risk of closing some outdoor spaces to hunting, fishing, and hiking 65% 60% 67% 63% 69% 15% 19% 18% 18% 16% Do you believe Colorado should protect new land as parks, national monuments, or wilderness, or do you believe we already have enough protected areas? INDEP VOTERS LATINO VOTERS ARAPAHOE COUNTY JEFFERSON COUNTY LARIMER COUNTY Colorado should protect new land as parks, national monuments, or wilderness 62% 63% 57% 61% 55% Colorado already has enough protected areas 29% 30% 35% 29% 36% 31
KEY AUDIENCES Latino and swing county voters share similar sentiments about public lands proposals as Independents INCLUDE CAUTION AVOID Would the following proposals regarding public lands that a candidate may offer make you more or less likely to support that candidate? Showing More Likely / Less Likely INDEP LATINO ARAPAHOE JEFFERSON LARIMER Help create outdoor recreation jobs 78 / 6 83 / 4 85 / 5 74 / 8 77 / 6 SPLIT A: Protect access to outdoor spaces 78 / 4 71 / 9 78 / 8 72 / 12 79 / 6 Increase protection of wildlife 77 / 8 76 / 7 76 / 11 71 / 11 71 / 15 SPLIT B: Protect access to outdoor spaces for hunters and anglers 69 / 12 66 / 11 70 / 8 69 / 11 68 / 10 Encourage the development of solar and wind energy projects on public lands 74 / 12 69 / 14 70 / 17 63 / 17 79 / 8 Increase protection of public lands 73 / 10 74 / 8 71 / 8 63 / 11 69 / 15 Increase funding for the National Park Service 72 / 12 70 / 9 67 / 11 67 / 11 69 / 11 Increase access to lands for mountain bikers, paddlers, and other outdoor enthusiasts Continue oil and gas drilling on public lands, but with additional environmental protections in place 73 / 10 68 / 14 72 / 8 62 / 20 65 / 17 53 / 27 54 / 24 48 / 37 49 / 24 60 / 28 Reduce over time the amount of coal mining allowed on public lands 53 / 21 47 / 20 54 / 23 45 / 26 55 / 24 Ban new coal, oil, and gas leases on public lands 43 / 30 46 / 32 47 / 34 42 / 31 40 / 42 SPLIT A: Prohibit energy development of any kind on public lands 35 / 40 31 / 38 31 / 45 33 / 39 24 / 46 SPLIT B: Prohibit energy development of any kind on public lands, including large-scale solar and wind projects 23 / 56 32 / 44 33 / 43 22 / 59 23 / 55 Open up more wilderness areas to motorized vehicle use 28 / 49 28 / 46 27 / 51 20 / 62 25 / 57 Open up public lands to more private development 21 / 64 21 / 54 20 / 64 19 / 62 20 / 64 Sell public lands to reduce the budget deficit 19 / 63 18 / 55 17 / 65 15 / 63 23 / 62 32
KEY AUDIENCES A balanced, pro-outdoors message can sway key groups LaRno and Jefferson County voters support the DemocraRc candidate despite messaging. Now I am going to read you a couple of descriptions of potential political candidates. Between the following two candidates, which would you be more inclined to vote for? INDEP VOTERS LATINO VOTERS ARAPAHOE COUNTY JEFFERSON COUNTY LARIMER COUNTY A Democratic candidate who believes that the outdoors are what define Colorado; who will make protecting and providing public access to our land, water, and wildlife a top priority; who will support our recreation economy and ranching; and who believes that we can have energy development on Colorado lands if we manage it in a balanced way and prioritize wind and solar power. A Republican candidate who believes states should be able to manage their own public lands, not federal bureaucrats; who supports selling some public lands to close the budget deficit; and who prioritizes expanding domestic oil and gas production to spur economic development and create jobs. 53 66 59 56 57 21 25 36 30 26 A Democratic candidate who will make protecting our land, water, and air a top priority and increase funding for environmental programs; who believes oil, gas, and coal should stay in the ground and be replaced by renewable sources, like wind and solar; and who says together we can create a cleaner future for generations to come. A Republican candidate who believes that the outdoors are what define Colorado; who will make protecting and providing public access to our land, water, and wildlife a top priority; who will support our recreation economy and ranching; and who believes that we can have energy development on Colorado lands if we manage it in a balanced way and prioritize wind and solar power. 38 64 45 55 38 40 24 41 38 50 33
Recommendations 34
RECOMMENDATIONS Political Cheat Sheet for Candidates ISSUE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES A balanced approach to managing public lands and development Public lands and open spaces are what make Colorado special Help create outdoor recreation jobs Protect access to outdoor spaces for hunters and anglers Protecting our outdoor spaces should be given priority, even at the risk of closing some land to future energy development 1 Increase funding for the National Park Service Expanding public lands to include more Colorado land Fracking Open up public lands to more private development Sell public lands to reduce the budget deficit 35
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