CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION POLITICS IN COLORADO June 25, 2014
Latino influence in Colorado Demographic trends Participation and party competition Immigration Politics
The Colorado Population Today Total 5.2 Million White, non-latino 3.6 million Hispanic 1.1 million African American 223,100 Native American 155,700 White 70% Hispanic 21% Black 4% Asian 3% Other 2% 76% of Colorado Latinos are U.S. born Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 estimates
Colorado population trends and projections 1990-2040 Currently, the median age for Colorado Latinos is 26. The median age for Colorado whites (non- Latino) is 40. 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% White Non-Hispanic Hispanic 81% 75% 71% 66% 61% 56% 29% 34% 25% 21% 17% 13% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Sources: State Demography Office, Colorado Division of Local Government, 2013; U.S. Census Bureau 1990 and 2012.
Colorado Latino Voter Partisanship (2012) Hispanic voters have all but abandoned the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans have a hand in this trend. Other 29% Republican 14% Democrat 57% Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012
Statewide Republican Vote 1992-2012 After more than a decade of steady increases, the GOP has lost considerable Latino support in Colorado. % GOP Vote 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 36% 17% 44% 12% 51% 52% 30% 25% Statewide Hispanic 45% 46% 46% 38% 19% 10% 0% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 2012 Source: VNS/NEP 1992-2008, Latino Decisions 2010, 2012
Statewide Democratic Vote 1992-2012 Democrats perform well with Hispanic voters in Colorado. Prior GOP vote however, signals that these votes cannot be taken for granted. % Democrat Vote 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Statewide Hispanic 85% 87% 81% 74% 68% 68% 61% 54% 52% 46% 47% 48% 41% 42% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 2012 Source: VNS/NEP 1992-2008, Latino Decisions 2010, 2012
Colorado Hispanic Vote 2012 and 2010 Hispanics in Colorado have been a critical component to the significant Democratic victories. 87% 88% 10% 12% 81% 19% President (2012) Congress (2012) Senate (2010) Democrat Republican Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012, LD 2010 Election Eve Poll
2012 Hispanic Impact in Colorado 60 Without the Hispanic vote Romney lead in Colorado 50 40 38.9 45.1 30 20 10 0 Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012; US Census ACS November 2013
2012 Hispanic Impact in Colorado 60 50 40 30 20 10 38.9 45.1 51.5 46.5 Adding in the Hispanic vote, President Obama s share exceeds 50% mark, to win the state of Colorado. 0 Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012; US Census ACS November 2013
Colorado s Hispanic Electorate in Context Latino turnout in Colorado is high compared to other states, but a significant voter registration gap remains. Turnout is quite high among those registered. % Registered among voting eligible (CVAP) % Turnout among registered 95% 91% 92% 79% 79% 57% 60% 40% White non- Hispanic Hispanic Black Asian Source: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2012 CPS Report
Colorado Electorate Composition Eligible Electorate 2012 Voters White 71% 79% White 74% 84% Hispanic Black 11% 14% 13% 4% Hispanic Black 8% 10% 13% 3% One out of ten voters in Colorado is Hispanic. Other 5% 3% U.S. Colorado Other 4% 2% U.S. Colorado Source: U.S. Census Bureau, November 2012 CPS Report
Mobilization and Parties Percent contacted by a campaign, party, or community organization Contact from parties and organizations (among those contacted) U.S. Colorado 31 59 Democrats 59 75 Nevada 51 New Mexico Arizona 39 48 Republicans 40 39 California Texas 25 31 Community Groups 33 33 Colorado U.S. Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012
Colorado Congressional Districts by Party Registration and Current MC party CD6 party registration reflects the close 2012 and 2014 contests. Dem Dem GOP GOP GOP GOP Dem Held Held Held Held Held Held Held 38% 41% 36% 36% 37% 36% 39% 3 districts Dem advantage. 19% 27% 35% 41% 42% 32% 27% 3 districts Republican advantage. 43% 32% 29% 23% 22% 32% 34% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 Source: Colorado Secretary of State, 2014
2012 Congressional Races Margins of Victory Republicans won 4 of Colorado s 7 CDs in 2012. CD6 was the only close race. 3 safe Dem 3 2 7 1 6 5 4 2012 Margin of Victory % CD Latino CVAP CD 1 41% 18% CD 2 17% 7% CD 3 12% 18% CD 4 22% 15% CD 5 65% 11% 3 safe GOP (no Dem in CD5) CD 6 2% 12% CD 7 13% 19% Source: Colorado Secretary of State, 2012, U.S. Census ACS,2012
2012 Presidential Vote in Colorado CD President Obama carried Colorado with 52% of the vote. In 2012 he won in districts 1, 2, 6, and 7. 3 2 7 1 6 5 4 2012 Obama Vote Share by CD % CD Latino CVAP CD 1 69% 18% CD 2 58% 7% CD 3 46% 18% CD 4 39% 15% CD 5 38% 11% CD 6 52% 12% CD 7 56% 19% Source: Colorado Secretary of State, 2012, U.S. Census ACS,2012
2012 Presidential Vote in Colorado CD County-level vote for President gives a better view of party competition in the state. Source: Colorado Secretary of State, 2012
Latino Voter Reason for Voting Ethnic Which ties do you best agree with most: or rival party I m voting in ties 2012 in to drawing support: Latinos to the polls. Democratic candidate Hispanics in Colorado Republican demonstrated Candidate the strongest party Latino ties. community Latino Community Democrats Republicans 12 4 10 18 12 13 15 10 20 20 25 13 39 45 33 38 40 39 44 53 35 38 33 46 41 40 40 39 39 36 34 34 32 31 30 30 AZ MA NC CA NV U.S. OH TX CO VA FL NM Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012
Most Important Issue in 2012 (Colorado) What are the most important issues facing the Latino community that politicians should address? Economy/Jobs Immigration Health care Education Other Issue 8 17 16 34 50 Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012
Immigration policy impact on vote Despite the fact that they are American citizens, Hispanic voters in the state were very sensitive to immigration policy in this election.. Obama (DACA) Romney (Self-deport) 5 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic No impact 62 4 32 68 20 Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012
Ties to undocumented community Hispanic voters in the state care about immigration on a personal level. Know an undocumented immigrant Know someone deported or detained 35 63 65 37 Yes No Source: impremedia/ld Election Eve Poll 2012; AV/LD Battleground State Poll, June 2012
GOP vote if CIR is passed If GOP took leadership role in supporting CIR, with path to citizenship, would you be more/less likely to support GOP candidates in the future? Percent more likely to vote GOP in the future if GOP passes CIR U.S. Arizona Texas Nevada California Colorado New Mexico 21% 24% 31% 38% 36% 34% 32%
GOP vote if CIR is passed The 24point margin could easily decide a competitive race, like Colorado s Senate race and House CD 6. Percent more likely to vote GOP in the future if GOP passes CIR U.S. Arizona Texas Nevada California Colorado 24% 31% 38% 36% 34% 32% New Mexico 21%
Thank you! Report, Deck, and Map links, other materials at: LatinoDecisions.com