The People, The Press & Politics. Campaign '92: Voters Reconsider An October Panel-back Survey (XII)

FOR RELEASE: MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 1992, A.M. The People, The Press & Politics Campaign '92: Voters Reconsider An October Panel-back Survey (XII) Perot Is Back FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Donald S. Kellermann, Director (Home phone: 202-363-2997) Andrew Kohut, Director of Surveys (Home phone: 609-683-5557) (Office phone: 609-924-9204) Carol Bowman, Research Director Times Mirror Center for The People & The Press 202/293-3126

PEROT UNDERTOE THREATENS CLINTON Ross Perot's surge in the polls is drawing somewhat more support from Bill Clinton than from George Bush, and the third party candidate seems poised to make more gains that might further narrow Bill Clinton's nationwide margin. A special Times Mirror re-interview survey of 1153 registered voters conducted Oct 20-22 found 44% supporting Clinton, 34% George Bush and 19% Ross Perot. The benchmark poll, which took place Oct. 8-11, had Clinton leading by a 48% to 35% margin over the President, with independent Ross Perot gaining the support of only 8% of the predebate sampling. Over the ten-day period between surveys 79% of the electorate maintained their presidential preferences in the face of four televised debates. However, of the 21% who changed allegiances, the largest categories were Bush (4%) and Clinton supporters (6%) defecting to independent candidate Ross Perot. As shown in the table below, Perot was also the beneficiary of added support from voters who were initially undecided. October 8-11 Total Bush Clinton Perot Undec. % % % % % 100 35 48 8 9 ---------------------------------------------------- Reinterviews: Bush 34 30 1 1 1 2 Clinton 44 1 41 1 2 Perot 19 4 6 6 3 Undecided 3 * * * 2 The small differences in the candidate standings are perhaps less significant than the major changes in voter attitudes observed over the panel-back survey period. Through his performance in the debates and his advertising, Perot has managed to get large numbers of voters to reconsider their opinions of him. At the same time, Republican attacks on Bill Clinton have begun to wear away at the Democratic candidate's image. Opinions of George Bush have changed the least over this period, and that may be the principal reason why the candidate standings have not changed more than they have. Perot Worries Wane Over the ten-day period voter worries about Ross Perot as a potential president fell, while concerns about Clinton continued to increase. The percentage thinking there is a big chance that Perot would make major mistakes that would hurt the country, if elected, fell from 40% to 31% between surveys. Believing that Clinton would make major mistakes increased to 27%, from 25%, Oct 8-11, and from only 18% in Times Mirror's mid- September poll. A companion question about George Bush showed some improvement for the President. Thinking that conditions in this country might improve, if he were re-elected, 1 How To Read Table - 35% of voters said they supported George Bush when first called. In the second interview, that group was composed of 30% who still supported Bush, 1% Clinton, 4% Perot and one half of a percent undecided. 1

rose from 34% in early October to 44% currently. However, a majority (50%) of the public continues to think that there is no chance of improvement under George Bush. The number of voters either saying that they now support Perot, or would consider voting for him rose from 29% to 38% during the survey period. When Perot was at his high watermark back in May, 51% of voters said there was some chance they might vote for the independent candidate. Perot's potential vote is now approaching Bush's level, which slipped from 48% to 45%. Clinton's vote potential remains considerably higher at 55% but prior to the debates, 62% of voters were either supporting him or said they might consider it. The panel-back similarly showed the percentage of voters naming Perot as their second choice rising from 33% to 44% currently. Analysis of the poll results reveals that people who say that Perot is their second choice, or say that there is some chance that they might vote for Perot are drawn more often from Clinton's base than from Bush's. The potential defection pattern approximates the pattern of losses to Perot incurred by Bush and Clinton over the past 10 days. Might Vote Perot 2nd For Perot Choice Current: Bush Supporter 35% 40% Clinton Supporter 57% 60% Undecided 8 * 100 100 Perot's success with some voters is a dual consequence of how much he has repaired his personal image, and the extent to which he has gained the confidence of many voters on critical issues. In ten days, the percentage of voters naming Perot as the most "unreliable" candidate of the three fell from 30% to 17%. In turn, mentions of Clinton as the most unreliable of the candidates rose from 21% to 32%. Seeing Perot as the "power hungry" candidate fell from 37% to 28% as association of this phrase with Clinton increased from 22% to 31%. Similarly in the panel-back, voters increasingly named Perot as the most honest and truthful candidate (16% to 31%), the strongest leader (12% to 21%), having the most new ideas (31% to 44%) and caring the most about people like me (12% to 26%). On balance, Clinton remains stronger than Perot on many of the most crucial personal dimensions, such as being able to bring about change, likability, and long range thinking, but the growth in his negatives is also apparent. Association of Bill Clinton with the phrase "a typical politician" increased from 34% to 44% during the study period. And more people identified the Arkansas Governor with the phrase "doesn't tell the truth", in the follow-up interviews (26% to 37%). As would be expected of an incumbent, but not hoped for by an underdog, Times Mirror's sampling of voters changed their opinions much less about Bush than about his challengers. The President continues to be seen by a wide margin as the candidate with the "best judgment in a crisis" and as the best "family man" of the three. But in the first interview, only 17% thought that he is the candidate best "able to bring about change" and 25% thought he was the candidate who "cared most about people like me". Both of those perceptions were in tact ten days later (17% and 24%, respectively). People who back the President most often cite his experience (35%) as the reason for their support with only 19% citing the President's positions on issues as important, and 26% 2

his leadership ability. In contrast, Clinton's backers overwhelmingly point to the Democratic candidate's stand on issues (68%), with only 13% naming Clinton's leadership ability and 4% his experience. Perot has succeeded in giving his supporters a somewhat more balanced picture - 53% say they most like the independent candidate's stand on issues and 25% cite his leadership ability. Candidate Commitment Crystallizes Bill Clinton's ability to maintain his margin over President Bush in the face of a resurgent Perot will be helped by the fact that over the course of October the resolve of Clinton's backers has stiffened and more of his supporters said they were voting for the Governor, rather than against the President. Between the first interview and the second interview Clinton's support changed from on balance moderate to on balance positive (23% strong, 25% moderate in the first poll, to 26% strong, 18% moderate in the follow-up). The same pattern was observed for Bush's support and Perot's, as well. Perhaps more importantly for Clinton, the percentage saying they were voting for Bill Clinton climbed from 23% to 25% during the 10-day interval. The presidential race is changing most in the demographic and attitudinal categories of voters who usually vote Republican for President, but have shown less support for Bush so far in this campaign. The highest rates of switching to Perot were found among independents, whites, males, voters with some college training and people living in the West. Clinton's losses over the period occurred most often among men, Midwesterners, and affluent voters. Perot has made his greatest gains among Disaffected voters. While still trailing Clinton, he leads Bush among this financially hard-pressed and alienated bloc. Perot has also made substantial progress among well-informed voter segments that have widely disparate values. He attracts the support of one in five economically conservative Enterpriser Republicans and about the some proportion of socially liberal Seculars. 3

CANDIDATE PREFERENCE** BY TYPOLOGY GROUP SEPT 10-13, 1992 OCT 8-11, 1992 OCT 20-22, 1992 BUSH CLINTON BUSH CLINTON PEROT BUSH CLINTON PEROT TOTAL 38 53 35 48 8 34 44 19 ENTERPRISERS 80 13 76 8 9 74 5 19 (N=169) MORALISTS 88 7 77 9 7 80 5 13 (N=149) UPBEATS 37 48 45 34 8 40 36 20 (N=113) DISAFFECTEDS 34 49 28 42 15 24 38 31 (N=175) SECULARS 15 77 12 75 9 7 72 22 (N=107) 60'S DEMOCRATS 9 84 7 87 3 6 80 11 (N=83) NEW DEALERS 16 78 16 71 2 16 68 16 (N=51) POCKET BOOK DEMOCRATS 10 86 8 83 4 8 80 10 (N=220) BYSTANDERS/ OTHER 29 58 43 30 12 32 26 36 (N=86) **Includes Leaners. 4

DEMOGRAPHIC TREND IN PRESIDENTIAL SUPPORT Bush Clinton Perot Other/Undec. October October October October 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 N % % % % % % % % Total 35 34 48 44 8 19 9 3 (1153) Sex Male 37 34 44 38 11 24 8 2 (556) Female 34 33 51 48 6 14 10 5 (597) Race White 39 38 43 39 9 21 9 3 (1012) Black 9 4 82 87 3 6 7 3 (87) Age 18-29 35 28 53 50 9 21 4 1 (199) 30-49 35 35 48 43 10 20 8 3 (537) 50+ 36 35 45 43 7 18 12 5 (409) Education College Grad. 38 37 48 46 7 16 6 1 (413) Some College 34 31 45 40 11 24 10 5 (322) H.S. Graduate 37 36 48 43 7 19 8 2 (318) < H.S. Grad. 29 28 51 50 7 17 14 5 (99) Income $50,000+ 38 35 48 40 9 23 5 2 (288) $30,000-$49,999 43 44 43 35 7 19 7 3 (300) $20,000-$29,999 37 35 45 44 9 20 8 3 (217) < $20,000 24 21 59 59 7 17 11 4 (257) Region East 36 34 47 44 9 19 9 4 (241) Midwest 33 33 49 42 8 21 11 4 (329) South 39 39 44 45 8 15 9 2 (435) West 31 26 53 46 10 25 6 4 (148) Party Affiliation Republican 76 74 10 7 8 16 7 2 (353) Democrat 9 7 82 79 4 11 5 3 (417) Independent 29 26 43 38 15 33 13 3 (344) Type of Community City 31 28 54 51 7 18 8 2 (286) Suburb 38 36 46 41 8 20 8 3 (555) Non-metro 35 36 44 42 9 18 12 4 (312) 5

Bush Clinton Perot Other/Undec. October October October October 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 N % % % % % % % % Other Groups White Males 40 38 40 35 12 25 8 2 (491) Southern White Males 48 50 34 32 11 18 7 1 (180) White Catholics 41 35 44 41 8 20 8 4 (245) White Protestants 42 43 40 34 9 19 10 4 (622) 6

THE PEROT BOOM Perot As 2nd Perot Not Choice A Risk OCT OCT OCT OCT 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 % % % % N Total 33 45 50 65 (1153) Sex Male 40 48 55 67 (556) Female 27 42 45 63 (597) Race White 33 45 50 66 (1012) Black 35 43 50 53 (87) Age 18-29 40 54 59 72 (199) 30-49 33 46 53 68 (537) 50+ 30 38 41 58 (409) Education College Grad. 36 49 52 67 (413) Some College 31 42 54 68 (322) H.S. Graduate 31 45 47 65 (318) < H.S. Grad. 40 42 45 57 (99) Income $50,000+ 32 44 49 67 (288) $30,000-$49,999 33 44 52 66 (300) $20,000-$29,999 32 46 50 60 (217) < $20,000 39 44 50 65 (257) Region East 29 49 49 66 (241) Midwest 32 47 55 72 (329) South 37 43 45 59 (435) West 34 41 51 64 (148) Party Affiliation Republican 32 46 46 64 (353) Democrat 37 52 47 63 (417) Independent 29 36 56 70 (344) Type of Community City 33 44 48 66 (286) Suburb 33 47 51 66 (555) Non-metro 34 42 50 62 (312) 7

Perot As 2nd Perot Not Choice A Risk OCT OCT OCT OCT 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 N % % % % Other Groups White Males 40 49 55 69 (491) Southern White Males 42 52 49 60 (180) White Catholics 35 47 52 67 (245) White Protestants 32 45 48 64 (622) 8

THE CLINTON NEGATIVES Clinton Clinton Doesn't Unreliable Tell the Truth OCT OCT OCT OCT 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 % % % % N Total 22 32 26 37 (1153) Sex Male 26 37 29 40 (556) Female 18 27 24 34 (597) Race White 23 34 28 40 (1012) Black 7 9 7 13 (87) Age 18-29 22 28 27 40 (199) 30-49 23 35 30 40 (537) 50+ 19 29 22 32 (409) Education College Grad. 24 36 30 40 (413) Some College 20 32 27 38 (322) H.S. Graduate 21 30 26 38 (318) < H.S. Grad. 21 27 17 29 (99) Income $50,000+ 23 35 35 43 (288) $30,000-$49,999 25 42 33 46 (300) $20,000-$29,999 23 30 25 34 (217) < $20,000 16 21 17 27 (257) Region East 18 31 26 37 (241) Midwest 18 31 23 38 (329) South 26 34 28 40 (435) West 22 29 26 33 (148) Party Affiliation Republican 44 59 50 68 (353) Democrat 6 9 10 13 (417) Independent 20 33 24 37 (344) Type of Community City 19 25 23 34 (286) Suburb 23 33 30 39 (555) Non-metro 23 36 23 38 (312) 9

Clinton Clinton Doesn't Unreliable Tell the Truth OCT OCT OCT OCT 8-11 20-22 8-11 20-22 N % % % % Other Groups White Males 27 39 32 43 (491) Southern White Males 38 41 38 45 (180) White Catholics 21 29 28 39 (245) White Protestants 26 38 30 43 (622) 10

Survey Methodology The survey results are based on telephone re-interviews conducted October 20-22, 1992 of 1,153 registered voters from a nationwide survey of adults 18 years and older originally conducted October 8-11, 1992. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. THE TIMES MIRROR TYPOLOGY In 1987 Times Mirror developed a unique voter classification scheme that divided the electorate on the basis of political values, party identification and measures of political participation. Since its inception Times Mirror has conducted numerous nationwide surveys using this political typology, the most recent of which was reported in THE PEOPLE, THE PRESS & POLITICS - 1990. The typology was developed for administration by personal interview in that it requires about 15 minutes of interviewing time to ask the full battery of questions. Over the past year the Times Mirror Center for the People and the Press has developed a modified form of the Times Mirror Typology that is suitable for telephone interviewing in that it requires many fewer questions. It also divides the public into fewer groups (9 vs. 11) and therefore can be used with more limited sample size surveys. It is our intention to utilize the modified typology scheme on each of our pre-election surveys in 1992. While this form of the typology does not offer the full analytical richness of the original scheme, we think it continues to be an important and highly useful way of looking at the electorate. The modified typology is based on the important concepts about the homogeneity of various voting groups that we uncovered in our earlier research. There are two core Republican groups: Enterprisers: Enterprisers are fiscal conservatives who hold positive attitudes toward business and are anti-welfarist. They are affluent, well-educated and well-informed. Enterprisers are much less likely than other Americans to agree with the popular notion that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer (43% vs. 81%). Their pro-business stance leads them to differ with most Americans on the idea that too much power is concentrated in the hands of big companies. While 82% of other Americans feel that this is true, only 48% of Enterprisers agree. Enterprisers are also less likely to completely agree that society should make sure that everyone has an equal opportunity (55% vs. 41%). Moralists: Moralists are highly religious, socially conservative and show low levels of concern for personal freedoms. They are less affluent, older, and many live in the South. A vast majority of Moralists agree that books with dangerous ideas should be banned from public schools, which sets them firmly to the right of the rest of the public on the issue of censorship (89% vs. 39%). There are three core Democratic groups: 11

Sixties Democrats: Sixties Democrats are strong believers in peace and social justice. More than any other segment of the population, they disagree with the idea that the best way to preserve peace is through military strength (88% vs. 44%). And two-thirds (65%) of Sixties Democrats completely agree that society should guarantee everyone an equal opportunity. This is a heavily female, middle class, middle-aged group that supports most of the policy positions of the national Democratic party. New Dealers: New Dealers are older Democrats who experience little financial pressure and are more socially conservative than the national Democratic Party. Drawn heavily from the South, many of these old-time Democrats have party roots that go back to Roosevelt. Despite the end of the Cold War, New Dealers still universally agree that the best way to insure peace is through military strength (96% 2 ). Pocketbook Democrats: Pocketbook Dems overwhelmingly agree that they don't have enough money to make ends meet (98%). They are very concerned with social justice, and they believe that government should take an active role in the solution of the socioeconomic problems that plague them. One-third of Pocketbook Dems are minorities (32%), and many have less than a high school education. There are three typology groups that are basically Independent: Seculars: Seculars lean to the Democratic party, but some identify more closely with the GOP on certain issues. They are strongly supportive of personal freedoms. Seculars are well-informed, relatively affluent, and more often found on the East and West coasts. Their defining characteristic is an almost total lack of religious conviction. While 87% of the rest of the public says that prayer is an important part of their daily life, only one in ten (12%) Seculars hold this view. Their support for personal freedoms is best reflected in their feelings about censorship: 97% disagree with banning books containing dangerous ideas from public school libraries, compared with 48% of other Americans. 2 Based on combined survey results from November 1991 and January 1992. 12

Two of the Independent groups lean to the Republican party: Disaffecteds: Disaffecteds are personally alienated, financially pressured and deeply skeptical of politicians. This middle-aged, lower-middle income group contains many blue collar workers. Disaffecteds are nearly twice as likely as others to agree that hard work offers little guarantee of success (69% vs. 36%). Their political distrust is such that threequarters (77%) disagree that elected officials care what people like them think. Upbeats: Upbeats are also independents who lean to the GOP, but their attitudinal profile is almost the opposite of Disaffecteds. Upbeats are primarily young people who tend to be uncritical of government and other institutions. They also have American Exceptionalist values: 88% of Upbeats agree that Americans can always solve their problems, while only 55% of others agree. Finally, there is one typology group that is by definition apolitical: Bystanders: Bystanders have an almost total lack of interest in politics and public affairs. This urban, lower socio-economic group contains many young singles. Forty-six percent of Bystanders say they seldom vote. The table below shows the percentage of the survey respondents in each typology group for this survey. PERCENT Enterprisers 15 Moralists 13 Upbeats 10 Disaffecteds 15 Bystanders/Other 8 Seculars 9 60's Democrats 7 New Dealers 4 Pocketbook Dems. 19 13

THE QUESTIONNAIRE 14

TIMES MIRROR CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE AND THE PRESS NATIONAL POLITICAL SURVEY #12 RE-INTERVIEW SURVEY BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS October 20-22, 1992 N=1153 INTRODUCTION: Hello, we are conducting a telephone opinion survey for leading newspapers and tv stations around the country. I'd like to ask a few questions of AGE/SEX of respondent. It will only be a few questions to follow up to the interview we did a week ago or so. MY FIRST QUESTION IS Q.1 How closely have you been following news about the Presidential election, very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? Re- Sept Aug May Aug Interview 1992 1992 1992 1988 Very closely 55 47 36 35 43 Fairly closely 36 36 51 43 44 Not too closely, 7 11 11 15 11 Not at ally closely? 2 6 2 7 2 Don't know 0 * 0 * * 100 100 100 100 100 1153 1175 1023 1605 1000 15

ON ANOTHER SUBJECT... Q.3 If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for the Republican ticket of George Bush and Dan Quayle, for the Democratic ticket of Bill Clinton and Al Gore or for the ticket of Ross Perot and James Stockdale? IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '4' OTHER OR '5' UNDECIDED IN Q.3 ASK: Q.5 As of today, do you lean more to Bush and Quayle the Republicans, more to Clinton and Gore the Democrats or more to Perot and Stockdale? Re- Oct Interview 8-11 Total Bush/Quayle 34 35 Bush 32 31 Lean Bush 2 4 Total Clinton 44 48 Clinton 42 43 Lean Clinton 2 5 Total Perot 19 8 Perot 17 7 Lean Perot 2 1 Other/Undecided 3 9 100 100 IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '1' GEORGE BUSH, '2' BILL CLINTON OR '3' PEROT IN Q.3 ASK: Q.4 Do you support (INSERT CHOICE FROM Q.3) strongly or only moderately? Re- Oct Interview 8-11 Total Bush/Quayle 34 35 Strong Bush 20 14 Moderate 14 21 Total Clinton/Gore 44 48 Strong Clinton 26 23 Moderate 18 25 Total Perot/Stockdale 19 8 Strong Perot 11 3 Moderate 8 5 16

Q.6 Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (CANDIDATE FROM Q.3/5) or more a vote against (OTHER CANDIDATES)? Re- Oct Interview 8-11 Total Bush/Quayle 34 35 Bush/positive 19 19 Bush/against opponents 13 13 Total Clinton/Gore 44 48 Clinton/positive 25 23 Clinton/against opp. 17 22 Total Perot/Stockdale 19 8 Perot/positive 10 3 Perot/against opponents 7 5 IF RESPONDENT ANSWERED '1' FOR CANDIDATE CHOSEN IN Q.6 ASK: Q.7 What do you like most about (NAME OF CANDIDATE) his personality and character, his leadership ability, his experience or his stand on issues? RE-INTERVIEW George Bill Ross Bush Clinton Perot Personality and character 15 11 12 Leadership 26 13 25 Experience 35 4 9 Stand on issues 19 68 53 Can't say 5 4 1 100 100 100 17

ASK ALL WHO CHOSE A TICKET IN Q.3 OR Q.5: Q.8 Suppose you could have a second choice which ticket would be your second choice (OTHER TICKET) or (OTHER TICKET)? Re- Oct Interview 8-11 Bush/Quayle 20 18 Clinton/Gore 19 19 Perot/Stockdale 44 33 Has no second choice 13 23 (DO NOT READ) Other 1 2 (DO NOT READ) Undecided 3 5 100 100 Q.13 What's your opinion of the presidential candidates this year? Would you say that you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the choices? Re- Aug June May 3 Mar Interview 1992 1992 1992 1992 Very satisfied S))))))), 10 11 6 /Q 25 26 Fairly satisfied S)))))- 41 42 29 Not too satisfied S))))))), 33 31 36 /Q 72 68 Not at all satisfied S))))- 14 15 27 (DO NOT READ) Can't say 2 100 1 100 2 100 3 100 6 100 1153 1203 2594 1065 1366 3 In May and March the question was asked, "What's your opinion of the presidential candidates this year? Would you say that you are satisfied with the choices or not satisfied with the choices? 18

IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE BUSH IN Q.3 OR Q.5 ASK: Q.10 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for George Bush in the fall or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? July 29 Re- Oct Sept Aug 1 May 4 Chance might vote Interview 8-11 1992 1992 1992 for him 45 48 50 51 55 Decided not to vote for him 53 46 44 45 40 Can't say 2 6 6 4 5 100 100 100 100 100 1153 1815 1175 1023 1065 IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE CLINTON IN Q.3 OR Q.5 ASK: Q.11 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for Bill Clinton in the fall or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? July 29 Re- Oct Sept Aug 1 May 5 Chance might vote Interview 8-11 1992 1992 1992 for him 55 62 66 71 56 Decided not to vote for him 43 32 28 26 38 Can't say 2 6 6 3 6 100 100 100 100 100 1153 1815 1175 1023 1065 4 Voted for him in one of the preference questions. 5 Voted for him in one of the preference questions. 19

IF RESPONDENT DID NOT CHOOSE PEROT IN Q.3 OR Q.5 ASK: Q.12 Do you think there is a chance that you might vote for Ross Perot in the fall or have you definitely decided not to vote for him? Re- Oct May Interview 8-11 1992 3 Chance might vote for him 38 29 51 Decided not to vote for him 59 63 34 Can't say 3 8 15 100 100 100 1153 1815 1065 Q.22 Do you think there is a chance that if George Bush is re-elected that conditions in this country will get better or don't you think so? July 29 Re- Oct Sept Aug 1 May Interview 8-11 1992 1992 1992 Yes, chance 44 34 38 37 35 No chance 50 54 54 56 52 Don't know 6 12 8 7 13 100 100 100 100 100 1153 1815 1175 1023 1065 Q.23 How much of a chance is there that if Bill Clinton is elected President that he would make major mistakes that would hurt the country? (READ CATEGORIES 1-3) July 29 Re- Oct Sept Aug 1 May Interview 8-11 1992 1992 1992 A big chance 29 25 18 18 16 Some chance 50 48 55 55 50 Hardly any chance 19 19 22 23 20 Can't say 2 8 5 4 14 100 100 100 100 100 1153 1815 1175 1023 1065 20

Q.24 How much of a chance is there that if Ross Perot is elected President that he would make major mistakes that would hurt the country? (READ CATEGORIES 1-3) Re- Oct May Interview 8-11 1992 A big chance 31 40 16 Some chance 51 39 50 Hardly any chance 14 11 20 Can't say 4 10 14 100 100 100 1153 1815 1065 ASK ALL: Q.26 As I read a list of phrases tell me if you think this phrase better describes George Bush, Bill Clinton or Ross Perot? (ROTATE) George Bill Ross (VOLUNTEERED) Bush Clinton Perot All None DK a. Would use good judgment in a crisis Re-interview 49 32 11 5 * 3=100 October 8-11, 1992 49 32 8 3 1 7=100 b. Personally likable Re-interview 26 41 23 7 2 1=100 October 8-11, 1992 31 48 8 5 4 4=100 c. Unreliable Re-interview 32 32 17 3 8 8=100 October 8-11, 1992 29 21 30 4 5 11=100 d. A typical politician Re-interview 41 44 3 9 * 3=100 October 8-11, 1992 43 34 5 13 * 5=100 e. Has new ideas Re-interview 6 44 44 2 2 2=100 October 8-11, 1992 9 51 31 2 3 4=100 21

Q.26 As I read a list of phrases tell me if you think this phrase better describes George Bush, Bill Clinton or Ross Perot? (ROTATE) George Bill Ross (VOLUNTEERED) f. Can bring about change Bush Clinton Perot All None DK Re-interview 17 46 28 3 2 4=100 October 8-11, 1992 17 49 19 4 5 6=100 g. Honest and truthful Re-interview 27 20 31 3 15 4=100 October 8-11, 1992 27 24 16 4 20 9=100 h. Can think long range Re-interview 33 34 25 3 1 4=100 October 8-11, 1992 35 32 17 4 3 9=100 i. Is a good family man Re-interview 42 21 18 14 1 4=100 October 8-11, 1992 49 23 9 10 1 8=100 j. Intelligent Re-interview 22 29 21 26 * 2=100 October 8-11, 1992 28 30 13 23 1 5=100 k. Cares about people like me Re-interview 24 38 26 3 6 3=100 October 8-11, 1992 25 44 12 4 9 6=100 l. Is a strong leader Re-interview 39 31 21 4 2 3=100 October 8-11, 1992 42 31 12 3 5 7=100 m. Power hungry Re-interview 25 31 28 7 4 5=100 October 8-11, 1992 23 22 37 7 3 8=100 n. Would bend the rules to get things done Re-interview 19 29 37 7 2 6=100 October 8-11, 1992 24 27 29 8 2 10=100 o. Doesn't tell the truth Re-interview 31 37 3 15 6 8=100 October 8-11, 1992 30 26 8 17 6 13=100 22