Public opinion in the European Union This survey has been requested and co-ordinated by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication. This report was produced for the European Commission s Representation in the. This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors. Wave EB86.2 TNS opinion & social
PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION UNITED KINGDOM http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion This survey has been requested and co-ordinated by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication. This report was produced for the European Commission s Representation in the.
TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 2 KEY FINDINGS 2 I. Most important issues facing UK citizens personally (QA4a) 3 II. The right FOR EU citizens to work in (our country) (QB6.4) 3 III. The right FOR EU citizens to live in (our country) (QB6.3) 4 IV. Immigration from other EU states (QB4.1) 4 V. Attachment to the EU (QD1a3) 5 VI. Understanding how the EU works (QA19a.1) 5 VII. Views on the future of the EU (QA20) 6 VIII. Facing the future outside the EU (QA19a.5) 7 1
INTRODUCTION took place in the autumn of 2016. The survey was done between 5 and 14 November with 1,305 face-to-face interviews in Great Britain and 38 in Northern Ireland, making a total of 1,343 respondents out of an EU total of 27,705. KEY FINDINGS Immigration There has been a noticeable decrease over the past six months in the number of UK citizens having negative feelings concerning immigration (Section I, II, III and IV). Concerns of citizens On an individual basis, the major concern of UK citizens is inflation and rising prices (Section I) Feelings of attachment to the EU UK citizens feelings of attachment to the EU have increased noticeably over the past six months (Section V). Understanding how the EU works The proportion of the UK poll claiming that they understand how the EU works has increased markedly over the past six months possibly due to the heightened levels of interest at the time of the referendum (Section VI). Views on the future of the EU There is a strong increase in the levels of pessimism in the UK concerning the future of the EU (Section VII). The future outside the EU A majority of UK citizens believe the UK could better face the future outside the EU (Section VIII). 2
I. MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FACING UK CITIZENS PERSONALLY (QA4A) QA4A Personally, what are the two most important issues you are facing at the moment? 36% of the UK poll cited inflation and rising prices as the most important issue they were facing personally. This is a substantial increase from the 27% seen in EB85 earlier in the year and also well above the EU average of 28%. Particularly high figures were noted in Portugal (45%) and Lithuania (63%). In the UK, this issue was important to nearly half (49%) of 25 to 34 year olds and a similar 51% of white-collar workers. Health and social security was cited by 18% of the UK poll compared with a similar 16% EU average. In the UK, the figure rises to 29% of those aged over 55 and 35% of the retired. Ranked third in importance was the economic situation of the country cited by 13% of the UK. This issue was important to 19% of the most educated in the sample compared with 7% who had left school aged 15 or less. 12% of UK respondents cited the financial situation of their household. Concerns over immigration amongst the UK sample almost halved from 11% to 6%. Particularly high figures on this issue were noted in Italy (15%) and Denmark (11%) compared with an EU average of 6%. It should be noted, however, that 13% of 65 to 74 year olds and 12% of the least educated segment still saw this as an important issue. As has been noted in many previous Eurobarometer surveys, there are substantial variations in the selection of important issues when the question is phrased to widen the issue by referring to the country as a whole rather than on an individual basis. Accordingly, the most important issue facing the country is seen to be health and social security (27%) compared with just 18% when the question is asked on a personal basis. Again, whilst immigration is seen as an important issue by just 6% of the UK poll on an individual basis, the figure on a country-wide basis is more than four times as large at 25%. This last figure shows a large decrease from the 38% recorded just six months previously. The trend of viewing immigration more positively (on which more in sections II-IV) is therefore consistent from both an individual and a country-wide basis. II. THE RIGHT FOR EU CITIZENS TO WORK IN (OUR COUNTRY) (QB6.4) QB6.4 Do you think that the right for EU citizens to work in the UK is a good thing, a bad thing or neither a good nor a bad thing? Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the UK poll a substantial increase from the 57% recorded just six months previously - think that the right of EU citizens to work in this country is a good thing. This compares with an EU average of 70% and figures as high as 90% in Luxembourg and 86% in both Spain and Ireland. Low figures were noted in Italy (49%) and in Austria (55%). 3
Looking in more detail at the UK data from a socio-demographic point of view, there are noticeable variations. For example, 67% of men compared with just 61% of women see the right of EU citizens to work in the UK as a good thing. Age is also a factor with 75% of those aged 15 to 40 believing it to be a good thing compared with 50% of those aged 55 or over. Level of education provides even greater variations with figures of 82% of the most educated compared with 43% of those who had left school aged 15 or less. III. THE RIGHT FOR EU CITIZENS TO LIVE IN (OUR COUNTRY) (QB6.3) QB6.3 Tell me whether the right of EU citizens to live in the UK is a good thing or a bad thing. Across the Member States, the percentages of citizens seeing this as a good thing has increased over the six-month period between EB85 and EB86 from 68% to 69%. Particularly high figures are noted in Ireland (85%), Spain (86%) and Luxembourg (89%). In the UK, there was a substantial increase from 50% to 58%. Once again, age is a determining factor with 67% of 15 to 24 year olds and 69% of 25 to 39 year olds viewing this right as a good thing compared with just 40% of those aged 65 to 74 and 38% of those aged 75 or more. Just 36% of those who had left school at the earliest opportunity saw this right as a good thing compared with 77% of those educated to age 20 or more and 81% of those still studying. A figure of 71% was seen amongst managers compared with just 41% amongst the retired. IV. IMMIGRATION FROM OTHER EU STATES (QB4.1) (QB4.1) Tell me whether the immigration of people from other EU states gives you a positive or a negative feeling. Across the Member States, the proportion of citizens feeling positive about the immigration of people from other EU states rose from 58% to 61% between spring and autumn 2016. In the most recent poll, figures of 83% were noted in Sweden and 82% in Luxembourg whilst low figures of 42% were recorded in Italy and 43% in Cyprus. 4
In the UK, there has been a marked increase in the positive view over the six-month period with the total positive figure rising from 49% to 58%. As often noted elsewhere in this report, there was a marked difference by age with 71% of 15 to 34 year olds holding a positive view compared with 37% of citizens aged between 65 and 74 and just a third (34%) of those aged 75 or more. Level of education also had a major effect on attitude with 34% of the least educated compared with 77% of those educated to age 20 or more taking the positive view. This question which specifically mentions the emotive word immigration chimes with the positive trend shown in sections II (the rights of EU citizens to work in our country) and III (the rights of EU citizens to live in our country). Although impossible to quantify, there might now be a more open view to the issue of immigration. Following the referendum, citizens possibly view that this issue has become markedly less relevant (because they expect immigration from EU countries to decrease), or perhaps they are less inclined to express negative views on immigration in a post-referendum climate marked by reports of a rise in xenophobia and racism. The plight of existing EU migrants post-brexit, which has received much media attention since the referendum, may also play a role. V. ATTACHMENT TO THE EU (QD1A3) QD1a3 Please tell me how attached you feel to the European Union. The last time this question was asked was twelve months previously (EB84). Over that period, the percentage of EU citizens polled who answered positively has risen from 49% to 51%. In the UK, however, the percentage increase has been substantially larger rising from 40% to 46%. High figures were noted in Luxembourg (76%) while only 32% of respondents in Greece and 26% in the Republic of Cyprus shared this feeling. While 11% of the total EU poll said they were very attached to the EU, the UK figure has doubled over the past year from 7% to 15%. A substantial 59% of the UK poll aged between 25 and 34 feel attached to the European Union compared with 30% of citizens aged 65 to 74 and just 26% of those aged 75 or more. Levels of education also produces a wide variation in sentiment with two-thirds (67%) of the most educated feeling attached to the EU. Amongst those who left school aged 15 or less, the figure was just 26%. VI. UNDERSTANDING HOW THE EU WORKS (QA19A.1) QA19a.1 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement I understand how the EU works? Since this question was last asked twelve months previously, there has been an increase in respondents stating that they understand how the EU works. 5
While across all the Member States the average has risen from 54% to 56%, the UK figure shows a greater than average increase from 55% to 60% which may be caused by the focus given to the question of EU membership before and after the June 2016 referendum. A high figure of 75% was noted in Sweden and Poland, while in Malta, Italy, Spain and France, the figure is just 43%. Making up the UK data is a noticeable variation between 66% of men and 54% of women. Two-thirds (67%) of respondents aged between 35 and 54 claimed to understand how the EU works. This compares with 52% of 65 to 74 year olds and 35% of those aged 75 or over. Respondents levels of education also showed a wide variation ranging from 70% of the most educated to 40% of the least educated. VII. VIEWS ON THE FUTURE OF THE EU (QA20) QA20 Would you say that you are very optimistic, fairly optimistic, fairly pessimistic or very pessimistic about the future of the EU? Since EB85 in the spring of 2016, there has been a noted decline in optimism about the future of the EU in the. In the earlier poll, 44% of the UK sample were optimistic while 46% were pessimistic. This two percentage point gap has now widened in just six months to eleven percentage points with only 40% feeling optimistic and 51% pessimistic. 6
Across the EU, the figures have, however, remained constant over the six-month period with 50% being optimistic and 44% pessimistic. High levels of pessimism are noted in the Republic of Cyprus (56%) while the figure increases to 68% amongst the Greek sample. However, 77% of the Irish poll were optimistic about the future of the EU. Looking in more detail into the UK results, there is a noted decrease in optimism about the future of the EU as people get older. Accordingly, while 52% of 15 to 39 year olds feel optimistic on this issue, the figure falls to 25% amongst those aged 55 or more. Education is again a key influence with just 26% of the least educated feeling optimistic compared with 50% of those educated to age 20 or more and 60% of those still studying. Perhaps surprisingly, no clear pattern emerges by occupation with optimism being felt by just 38% of managers and self-employed compared with 44% of the unemployed and 45% of manual workers. VIII. FACING THE FUTURE OUTSIDE THE EU (QA19A.5) Q19A5 Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: The UK could better face the future outside the EU 32% of the total EU poll believe their country could better face the future outside of the EU. With 10% giving a don t know verdict, 57% preferred the future in an EU environment with particularly strong support from 75% of Danes, 76% of Luxembourgers and 79% of the Dutch. Just four countries had a majority agreeing that being outside the EU would give them a better chance of facing the future compared with remaining a member. These are Slovenia (50%/43%), Cyprus (49%/44%), UK (48%/42%) and Italy (45%/42%). 7
In the UK poll, more men (51%) than women (44%) could better face the future outside the EU. As age increases so does this belief. While an average of just 36% of 15 to 39 year olds held this view, the figure increases to 60% of those aged 55 or more. When analysing the data by level of education, only a third (33%) of those educated to age 20 or above agreed with the go it alone policy compared with two-thirds (67%) of those who had left school aged 15 or before. 8