CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 8, July 2016 KEY MESSAGES PAGE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 2. CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE Humanitarian Challenges in Borno and Yobe as Military Reclaims Territories from JAS Proposed Grazing Reserve Policy Continues to Polarise Groups in Plateau Report of Nigeria Army/Shi ite Group Clash Released Government Initiatives Fail to Address Instability in the Niger Delta. ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT IN NSRP TARGET GEOPOLITICAL ZONES POLITICAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC 5. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TARGET STATES 6 *Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government. ** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.
Executive Summary The month of July witnessed the continued improvements in the overall security environment due to successful military operations by the Nigerian authorities against Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS)-occupied territories in Borno State. However, as with last three months, government successes against JAS have created new challenges for the context in Borno and neighbouring countries of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The clearing of JAS strongholds has also continued to lead an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to seek refuge in Maiduguri, thereby worsening the humanitarian crisis from previous months. This is coupled with the challenges now being faced by Yobe State with IDPs spilling over from Borno State to seek services. For example, recently released communities arrived at Kukareta camp in Yobe State in the month of July in search of basic human needs while the camp struggles to provide for all those present in the camp already. Military victories have allowed access for individuals and organisations to move and provide support outside the capital, Maiduguri. For example, the Maiduguri-Dikwa-Gamboru road has re-opened in the month of July for the first time in three years. However, the security challenges remain for those seeking to move outside the capital. In the month, a UN and Nigerian military convoy was attacked on the road leading from Bama LGA to Maiduguri by JAS, with several individuals sustaining injuries. This attack also symbolises the risks to community members who are also seeking to leave displacement areas and return to their home LGAs. In early July, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) issued a report on the humanitarian challenges in the newly accessible territories in Borno state. The report noted several areas where children are experiencing severe and acute cases of malnutrition. Those working on humanitarian assistance had been predicting significant challenges in formerly-held JAS territories, but this report has now formalised many of these concerns. The final report of the Judicial Commission of Inquiry on the December 2015 Nigerian Army and Shi'ite clashes in the Middle Belt was released in July. The commission was tasked to investigate the December 2015 clashes between the Nigerian Army and the Islamic Movement of Nigeria. The report suggests that the Nigerian Army was implicated in the killings of Shi'ite members and calls for the prosecution of those found guilty. The report has been received by Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, who has promised to make the decisions regarding the report public in the near future. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) in Nigeria and civil society groups have commended the process of the inquiry and the findings of the report. However, Sheik Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, the leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, remains in DSS detention since December 2015 and members of the group did not participate in the judicial commission hearings to date. During the month, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued to justify the introduction of a floating exchange rate policy as part of its efforts to address the forex crisis in the country. The policy has resulted in the depreciation of the naira by over 20 per cent. Concerns continued to be raised regarding the potential for this to cause a recession in the Nigerian economy. 2
Insecurity in the Niger Delta continues for the seventh month in a row with continued attacks on oil infrastructure by various militancy groups in the region. This has continued to present challenges to the sustainability of the Nigerian economy. Cult gang violence in Rivers State continues as Governor Nyesom Wike offered amnesty to repentant members of cult gangs and threatened to demolish homes of suspected criminals in various settlements known to be inhabited by criminals and militants in the state. National Context Humanitarian challenges in Borno and Yobe as military reclaims territories from JAS Continued military operations by the Nigerian authorities against JAS occupied territories in Borno State has created new challenges for the context in North East and neighbouring countries of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The Nigerian Chief of Army Lt. General Tukur Buratai commented that JAS no longer exists within Nigerian territory but has been forced to the borders with Niger, Chad and Cameroon and are being managed by the members of the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) a joint-country force of 8700 troops from five countries. While the presence or absence of JAS in the North East remains unclear due to the presence of continued attacks across the region in the month, the Nigerian military successes to drive out JAS from Nigeria have been noted in the month. However, as Nigerian military regains control of its territories previously under JAS control, it is also faced with two humanitarian challenges. First, individuals (men, women and children) who have been freed from captivity are moving into Maiduguri and/or Damaturu, further compounding the crisis of managing and catering for internally displaced persons (IDPs). This has created a significant humanitarian challenge for a community, which has already struggled to meet the needs of existing IDPs and host community representatives. Secondly, roads outside Maiduguri remain largely insecure. The Maiduguri-Dikwa-Gamboru road has reopened in the month of July for the first time in three years. However, the security challenges remain for those seeking to move outside the capital. In the month, a UN and Nigerian military convoy was attacked on the road leading from Bama LGA to Maiduguri by JAS, with several individuals sustaining injuries. This attack also symbolises the risks to community members who are also seeking to leave displacement areas and return to their home LGAs. Finally, the liberation of more communities from JAS control has also drawn attention to the severity humanitarian situation occasioned by the insurgency. Reports from humanitarian agencies such as the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) reveal that many residents in liberated communities were facing starvation. Contributing to these concerns have been two specific actions: the recent months of food distribution cut-offs by the Nigerian military to access points towards Sambisa forest, including communities along the corridor in Bama LGA specifically and the shift in JAS techniques to prioritise food for soldiers only; therefore, re-routing food sources away from women and children in held territories. As a result, on 15 July, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) claimed that over 2.5 million Nigerian children were suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition and warned that 20 per cent of these children are at risk of death if the situation is not addressed immediately. Proposed grazing reserve policy continues to polarise groups in Plateau State The contestation over the Federal Government's policy on grazing reserve and its implementation in Plateau state remains an issue of concern. The State Governor, Rt. Honourable Simon Lalong continue to argue that Senator David Jang, who is representing the Northern Senatorial zone, is responsible for instigating conflict among the people against the grazing reserve policy in the state in the month of July. He informed a group of journalists in Lagos that the decision to create grazing reserves and grazing routes was a decision long taken by the state before the Federal Government policy on the subject. The grazing reserve plan in Plateau state has been opposed by members of groups such as the G17, a coalition of civil society groups, on allegations that the process lacks inclusivity and is an elite-driven resolution that does not reflect the desires of the people. Report of Nigerian Army/Shi ite group clash released The Judicial Commission of Inquiry on the Army and Islamic Movement of Nigeria clash in December 2015 submitted its report to Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai on 16 July 2016.
The report implicates the Nigerian Army in the killings of the Shiite members and calls for the prosecution of those found guilty. The governor has agreed to study the report findings and promised to make his decisions regarding the findings and recommendations public in the near future. The recommendations of the commission and the decision of the government to make public its decision on the report has been commended by the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) as well as several other civil society groups. Government initiatives fail to address instability in the Niger Delta region Although Nigeria worked to repair damages done to crude production since June, the violent initiatives of militant groups such as the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) have persisted despite dialogue efforts which are on-going. This has been coupled with the on-going inter-cult gang rivalry in Rivers State particularly. In July, Governor Nyesom Wike offered amnesty to cult gangs. Still he presented a contradictory position with the authorisation to demolish homes of suspected criminals in various settlements known to be associated with militants in the state. These aspects have continued to present challenges to overall peace and security in the region. Geopolitical zonal analysis (Northeast, Northwest, Middle Belt and Niger Delta) Political In response to allegations of mismanagement of funds for humanitarian emergencies, Governor Kashim Shettima of Borno State claims he only received 5 million naira since May 2011 for the management of the IDP situation. This statement was released after allegations surfaced last month that he has been responsible for diverting humanitarian materials away from IDPs in need. This has been received by many in the state as a political move to rescue the Governor's tainted reputation. In Kano, the conflict between Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has improved in the month of July. Governor Ganduje visited the father of Kwankwaso, Alhaji Musa Sale Kwankwaso at his palace in Madobi town to receive his blessing. The visit was a Sallah homage and a demonstration of the absence of bitterness in the feud between Governor Ganduje and the former governor, Senator Rabi'u Kwankwaso. The visit has helped assuage a number of persons politically opposing the governor and improved the level of cooperation and respect among followers of the two political icons. One outstanding political issue in Kano state is the re-run election for the vacant seat of the member representing Minjibir constituency in the Kano state house of assembly. The re-run was re-scheduled for Saturday 0 July 2016 by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). INEC concluded that the previous election was characterised by violence; therefore, to avoid the potential re-occurrence of similar electoral violence, both INEC and the security outfits in the state have taken a number of steps to assure that the election is deemed free and fair. For example, spokesman of the Kano state police command, Magaji Musa Majia, has announced that the command has taken all necessary measures to ensure peaceful elections. Political tensions in Plateau continue to be driven by intra-party conflicts. For instance, aggrieved party members of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) were alleged to have decamped to the APC party to protest the suspension of Hon. Diket Plang over alleged anti-party activities. The suspension is further deepening the crisis within the party following the disagreement over the state congress election that elected the former Minister for Sport, Hon. Damishi Sango, as the new leader. In June, the parties feuded over the alleged cancellation of the election of Mr. Damishi Sango, as the Chairman of the state chapter of the PDP due to conflicts arising from disagreement over the zoning of offices. Political tensions persisted in Rivers State over plans by the INEC to re-run the parliamentary (legislative) elections in Bori (Khana LGA) amidst the continued detention and trial of an APC chieftain currently facing murder charges.
Social Sources indicate that over 200 suspected JAS insurgents have been cleared and released by the Joint Interrogation task force under the authority of the Chief of Army Staff in Maiduguri on 18 July. The Borno State Government has planned to return IDPs to rebuilt communities across the North East by the State Ministry of Rehabilitation, Reconstruction and Resettlement with the support of other ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) such as the Victims Support Fund (VSF) and Dangote Foundation. However, it has apparently delayed the planned return of IDPs to their home LGAs such as Mafa, Magumeri, Dikwa, Konduga, Benisheikh, Askira-Uba, Kala Balge, and Kaga in light of the continued security challenges on the main thoroughfares in the North East. In Kano State, the case of suspected murder against persons who beheaded a female trader in the Kofar Wambai plastic market over alleged blasphemy continues. The state chief magistrate court hearing the case has denied bail to the five men suspected of decapitating the woman. The victim was attacked and decapitated by the suspects who accused her of blasphemy. In Kaduna state, the Inspector General of police constituted an anti-kidnapping team to crack the rising activities of kidnapping gangs in the state. Kaduna state has experienced increase in cases of kidnap for ransom. Victims often buy their freedom with negotiations to as little as N50,000 and N100,000. In the Niger Delta region, crime, violence and insecurity continue to disrupt community relations. Robberies continued to occur in Delta state, particularly in Uvwie and Warri South LGAs. Inter-communal conflict over land continued in communities in Gokana LGA of Rivers state such a Deeyor and Deeken, Baroko and Nwebiara. Economic In Borno State, the reopening of the Maiduguri-Dikwa-Gamboru road three years after it was closed for security reasons was heralded by Governor Kashim Shettima as an opportunity to improve the economy of the state. The Road Transport Workers Union arranged with its members to reduce the cost of transportation from Maiduguri to Gamboru-Ngala from N6,000 to N2,000 as their contribution to restoring the economic performance of the area. Non-payment of salary arrears of some LGA staff and primary school teachers continued despite previous promises by Governor Simon Lalong of Plateau State to pay outstanding salaries of the civil servants by the end of June 2016. Civil servants and primary school teachers are owed up to 10 months' salary. The payment of the outstanding salaries was expected to relieve the hardship being faced by the civil servants and slightly boost the economy of the state. 5
Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Northeast The month of July revealed the complexities of working in the North East at this time, with military victories improving security in the area but revealing the humanitarian challenges that continue to face the region as a whole. As the sixth month in a row with measured improvement in the security situation, the humanitarian situation continues to present challenges as individuals continue to move from cleared LGAs to displacement locations in Maiduguri and Damaturu. Access to previously-held communities came at a cost for some development and humanitarian workers in July with several being injured in the ambush by JAS on the way from Bama back to Maiduguri. Yet, INGOs and local NGOs accessing these communities have noted the extreme need to basic human needs that are leading to death in the newly freed communities, and stress the continued need for urgent support despite the security predicaments. The changing security environment implies that as many more communities become open and accessible for humanitarian agencies to reach, more cases related to malnourishment may be uncovered. It also suggests that as more communities are made accessible, JAS may continue to attack humanitarian convoys. Also, for those that seek humanitarian support outside Maiduguri as IDPs, such as those arriving in Damaturu, challenges may now include the lack of access to basic needs in the overstretched camps both inside and outside Maiduguri. Programmes working on humanitarian support are encouraged to coordinate efforts with Nigeria government agencies such as the Victim Support Fund (VSF) and the Presidential Committee on Northeast Initiative (PCNI). Programmes should ensure that there is adequate budgeting for relief items and that provisions reach IDPs both within and outside Maiduguri. It is also recommended that INGO and local NGOs working on humanitarian assistance and peacebuilding should integrate social cohesion and reintegration activities with both IDPs and host community members into on-going initiatives. Grievances by both host community and IDPs regarding continued relocation from school compounds to host communities will increase over time if social cohesion and reintegration activities are not increased. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Northwest (Kano) The potential resolution of political in-fighting between Kwankwaso and Ganduje in the month of July may indicate resiliencies for the supporters of both factions due to the blessing provided by Alhaji Kwankwaso to Ganduje. For those supporting governance and peacebuilding programming in the state, it is recommended that there should be continued advocacy for transparent and accountable processes among political actors. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt (Plateau and Kaduna) The conflict over the Plateau State grazing rights plan continue to present challenges to overall peace and security in the region. The release of the report on the December 2015 conflict may also have negative reactions from the population if Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai does not manage the public release of the report in a conflict sensitive manner. It is recommended that programmes on peacebuilding and governance working in the Middle Belt region continue to prioritise multi-stakeholder dialogue around issues related to the grazing rights reserve policy. It is also recommended that programmes focused on conflict resolution and governance support Governor El-Rufai to engage the public in a conflict sensitive and gender sensitive manner prior to and during the public release of the Inquiry commission report. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta (Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta) The month of July has witnessed the uptick of violent conflict between cult gangs in the region. Therefore, it is recommended that programmes working on security sector reform and peacebuilding should advocate for more dialogue and negotiations with the different cult group members who are currently mobilised in the region to reduce the incentives for violence. 5