Landslide election Potential for Democratic Gains October 2016
Methodology National phone survey of 900 Likely 2016 Voters. This survey took place October 21-24 among national likely voters. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016, and vote history in 2012 and 2014. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Of the 900 respondents, 65 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate. 1
2 Wrong track numbers trending down Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track 2011 2012 2012 2014 Election 2014 Election 2016 58 59 65 61 58 75 76 69 65 59 59 58 62 55 52 59 64 68 76 63 65 69 68 68 61 61 63 65 61 65 71 58 33 36 33 29 26 28 16 15 19 34 36 33 32 32 29 3940 42 32 28 23 18 29 27 26 25 23 32 31 30 29 33 29 24 36 From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 5 years. Data represents MEAN ratings.
Clinton holds impressive 12 point lead in four-way ballot Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? +12 +12 50 38 53 41 5 2 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Johnson Stein Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Four Way Vote Two Way Vote 3
4 Johnson voters may not vote How much do the elections this November for President, U.S. Congress and other state and local offices matter this year? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten. % 10 Interest 80 77 71 71 67 39 Trump Voters Republicans Democrats Clinton Voters Independents Johnson Voters
Women's aversion to Trump producing new patterns across married/unmarried line Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? +17 +28 +6 +12 52 35 59 31 47 53 41 41 Clinton Trump 13 10 12 6 Other/ Und Clinton Trump Other/ Und Clinton Trump Other/ Und Clinton Trump Other/ Und Married Women Unmarried Women White Married Women White Unmarried Women 5
Married and white married went for Romney, now Clinton Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? +24-6 +29 +8 +7 +17 +34 +28 +23 +6 +4 +12 46 53 52 35 67 33 59 31 38 61 47 52 53 48 41 41 Obama Romney Other /Und 2012 2016 Married Women 13 10 12 Obama Romney Other /Und 2012 2016 Unmarried Women Obama Romney Other /Und 2012 2016 White Married Women Obama Romney Clinton White Unmarried Women 6 Trump Other /Und 2012 2016 6
Clinton exceeding millennial 12 margin, white millennial vote because of GOP crack up I know it s a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein? +9 +30 +39 +5 +40 +35 64 59 46 51 55 34 20 10 6 20 12 8 Obama Romney Johnson Stein Obama Romney Johnson Stein 2012 2016 2012 2016 Millennials White Millennials 7
Clinton landslide with white college women and GOP lose advantage with the men Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? +33 +24 46 +7 +26 +25 53 56 30 36 61 +1 41 42 14 17 Obama Romney 2012 2016 Other/ Und Obama Romney 2012 2016 Other/ Und White College Women White College Men 8
Even Trump s white working class men vote trails Romney s Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? +10-7 +19 +9 +33 +26 59 52 65 57 40 43 32 31 Obama Romney 2012 2016 5 Other /Und Obama Romney 2012 2016 12 Other /Und White Non-College Women White Non-College Men 9
Surprisingly, Clinton underperforming with unmarried women & minorities, OK with millennials Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? -6-17 +16 +34 +28 +63 +46 +23 +39 81 67 59 67 60 59 33 31 37 18 21 20 10 12 21 Obama Romney 2012 2016 Unmarried Women Other /Und Obama Romney 2012 2016 Minorities Other /Und Obama Romney 2012 2016 Millennials Other /Und 10
Clinton stunningly still has room to grow with Democrats Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein? 90 86 36 37 3 2 2 13 5 6 4 0 Johnson Stein Johnson Stein Johnson Stein Democrats Independents Republicans 11
Includes 17 percent of Sanders primary Democrats holding back Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for --Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein? 79 17 percent holding back 69 23 percent holding back 5 4 8 10 13 0 Johnson Stein Sanders Primary Voters Trump Clinton Johnson Stein Non-Trump Primary Voters 12
GETTING TO A DOWN-BALLOT WAVE 13
Clinton has big margins, but named congressional vote has big undecided and allocated only at +2 Thinking about the election for President in November, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party candidate Jill Stein? / Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November, would you be voting for (Democratic candidate) or (Republican candidate)? *The names of the Democratic and Republican candidates for U.S. Congress in each district were used; if no candidate it was asked generically +12 +1 +2 50 38 37 38 23 48 46 5 2 4 Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Jill Stein Johnson PRESIDENTIAL VOTE Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other/ Undecided CONGRESSIONAL VOTE DemocraticRepublican Other/ Candidate Candidate Undecided ALLOCATED VOTE 14
In simulated campaign, Democrats at +6 in tax debate Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right. The Republican candidate says, the last thing we need is to increase taxes and give more money to government. No tax increases strongly 45 +6 The Democratic candidates says, the last thing we need is more trickle down economics, and tax cuts for the rich and corporations. We need tax cuts for the middle class. No tax cuts for rich strongly 51 38 39 No tax increases No trickle-down, cuts for middle 15
And in simulated campaign, Democrats lead by 6 on priorities Which one of the following statements comes closer to your point of view, even if neither is exactly right. The Republican candidate says my priorities are to repeal and replace Obamacare, balance the budget, national security, and get serious about radical Islamic terrorism. The Democratic candidate says my priorities are to protect Social Security and Medicare, create more American jobs, ensure equal pay for women, and economic and national security. Gop priorities strongly 45 +6 Democratic priorities strongly 51 36 42 GOP Priorities Democratic Priorities 16
The current GOP down ballot message: check on Hillary Now I am going to read you something Republican candidates for Congress are saying about why you should vote for them. Please tell me whether it is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or not at all convincing reason to vote for (REPCAND16). REPUBLICAN DOWNBALLOT MESSAGING Very convincing No matter what side you are on, the stakes couldn't be higher. If Hillary Clinton is elected president, we will need leaders who will act as a check, not a rubber stamp. Democrats like my opponent won't oppose higher taxes. They won't oppose more federal spending and oppose 47 increased debts. They won't replace Obama's failed healthcare policies. They won't stop the Supreme Court from going to liberal extremes. And they won't insist the military has the resources it needs to defend us from the many dangers we face. I will. 26 17
Closing Democratic messages downballot Trump or economy? Now I am going to read you something Democrats are saying about the Republican candidates for Congress. Please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, somewhat serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your mind about (REPCAND16). DEMOCRATIC DOWNBALLOT MESSAGING GOP & TRUMP Republican (REPCAND16) sometimes questions what Donald Trump says, but they never spoke up about the hateful and racist things he said about Mexicans as "rapists" or when Trump refused to renounce the support of former KKK leader David Duke, or when Trump made disparaging remarks about veterans, Gold Star families and people with disabilities. Republican candidates took far too long to speak up about Trump's offensive behavior towards women, even when he referred to them as "bimbos," "dogs, "disgusting," and "fat pigs," and said there should be a "punishment" for women who seek an abortion. They said nothing about that. So, we cannot afford to put (REPCAND16) in the U.S. Congress. Very serious doubts 54 34 ECONOMIC CONTRAST We need an economy for everyone, not just the rich and well connected. But Republican (REPCAND16)) supports trickle down economics and more tax cuts for the richest and special breaks for corporations. And huge amounts of money are pouring in from the big oil companies and Wall Street to support him. Well, that's not right. We need to rebuild the middle class. We need to invest in families, education, jobs with rising incomes. Protect Social Security by asking the richest to pay their fair share. So, we cannot afford to put (REPCAND16) in the U.S. Congress. Very serious doubts 51 28 18
Overall, GOP & Trump attack takes Dems to 9 point lead -- to edge of majority After hearing about the Republican candidates for Congress and Donald Trump, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? / After hearing about the Republican candidates helping the richest, not the middle class, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for -- DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? CONGRESSIONAL VOTE - REVOTE +10 +7 +1 +9 +6 37 38 48 39 48 42 23 11 10 Democrat Republican Other/DK Democrat Republican Other/DK Democrat Republican Other/DK Initial Vote Re-Vote GOP & TRUMP ECONOMIC CONTRAST 19
While Trump strongest overall, economic contrast dramatically shifts unmarried women, millennials and white working class women After hearing about the Republican candidates for Congress and Donald Trump, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? / After hearing about the Republican candidates helping the richest, not the middle class, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for -- DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? Toward Democratic Candidate CONGRESSIONAL VOTE SHIFTS Toward Republican Candidate +8 +5 +5 +15 +17 +24 +8 +26 +3 +16 32 34 17 9 17 12 26 9 8 19 11 8 18 13 24 9 19 16 23 7 Shift GOP to Shift Dem & to Rep Shift to Shift Econ Demto Rep ClintonTrump GOP & Trump Contrast Trump ClintonTrump Econ Shift to GOP Shift Demto & Rep Shift to Shift Econ Demto Rep ClintonTrump GOP & ClintonTrump Econ ClintonTrump GOP & ClintonTrump Econ Contrast Trump Contrast Trump Contrast Trump Contrast Total Unmarried Women White Unmarried Women Millennials White Non- College Women 20
GOP & Trump does better with independents and Republicans After hearing about the Republican candidates for Congress and Donald Trump, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? / After hearing about the Republican candidates helping the richest, not the middle class, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for -- DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? Toward Democratic Candidate CONGRESSIONAL VOTE SHIFTS Toward Republican Candidate +8 +5 +5 +1 +9 +15 +21 +23 +52 +61 57 63 17 9 17 12 12 7 14 15 7 16 6 21 26 5 26 3 5 2 Shift GOP to Shift Dem & to Rep Shift Econ to Shift Demto Rep Shift to GOP Shift Dem& to Rep Shift to Shift Econ Demto Rep Shift to GOP Shift Demto & Rep Shift to Shift Econ Demto Rep ClintonTrump GOP & ClintonTrump Econ ClintonTrump GOP & ClintonTrump Econ Trump Contrast Trump Contrast Trump Contrast Trump Contrast Trump Contrast Total Independents Republicans Democrats Unconsolidated Dems 21
Trump link consolidates minorities but economic contrast gets unmarried women to 60 percent After hearing about the Republican candidates for Congress and Donald Trump, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? / After hearing about the Republican candidates helping the richest, not the middle class, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for -- DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16? GOP & TRUMP ECONOMIC CONTRAST GOP & TRUMP ECONOMIC CONTRAST GOP & TRUMP ECONOMIC CONTRAST +26 +17 +14 +18 +25 +34 +7 +33 +18 +35 +9 +23 +11 +29 +8 +17 +7 +41 40 33 58 25 47 29 62 27 37 28 53 30 38 27 59 30 31 39 48 31 38 31 66 25 Initial Revote Initial Revote Initial Revote Initial Revote Initial Clinton Revote Trump Clinton Initial Trump Clinton Revote Trump Minorities Millennials Unmarried Women 22
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