China s Urban Transformation Weiping Wu Professor and Chair Urban and Environmental Policy & Planning Tufts University weiping.wu@tufts.edu
Outline China s urban system Developmental state at work Migration as key driver Emerging urban regions Transformed urban form Rising motorization Increasing spatial differentiation Leap-frog expansion
China s urbanization at a glance ~1980 ~2010 % change Urbanization level (%) 19.4 51.0 162.9 Number of cities 193 657 240.4 Eastern region 69 344 398.6 Central region 84 218 159.5 Western region 40 95 137.5 Cities by population size Super large (> 2 million) - 42 Extra large (1-2 million) 13 82 530.8 Large (0.5-1 million) 27 110 307.4 Small & medium (< 0.5 million) 153 423 176.5 Agriculture s share in employment (%) 64 39-39.1 Ratio of urban-rural per capita income 2.6 3.2 23.1
Context of China s urbanization Marketization command to market economy Decentralization central-local fiscal relations Industrialization agricultural to manufacturing economy Migration rural-based to urban-based society Globalization autarky to open regime
Urbanization and regions
Defining urban Urban place Cities (657 in 2010) Criteria changed in 1955, 1963, 1984, 1986, & 1993 Generally, population greater than 100,000 Officially designated towns (19,410) Population over 20,000 At least 10 percent is non-agricultural Urban person Nonagricultural v. agricultural Locally registered v. migrants
Central policies at work Cities leading counties policy in 1990s More than 1,200 counties under 280 cities Reclassification of counties as cities in 1983, 1986, and 1993) or as urban districts Case in point Chongqing Original city merged with 40 surrounding counties in 1997 Population changed from 15 to 30 million and land area multiplied
Is Chongqing China s largest city? http://www.fnetravel.com/travel_info/english/chongqing-info/images/map-chongqing.gif
Migration as key driver Unprecedented magnitude >200 million primarily from rural-urban Primarily short-distance migration 70 percent within province Coastal region as key destination Much inter-provincial migration originates from central and western regions Circular or seasonal migration Primarily aged 15-34, males outnumber females, and family migration about a third
Migration as key driver 2005-2010 (Source: Chan 2012) 1995-2000 (Source: Fan 2005)
Two largest cities at a glance Beijing 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Migrant population (million) 0.54 1.81 2.56 3.57 7.05 Total population (million) 10.86 12.51 13.64 15.38 19.62 % migrant population 5.0 14.5 18.8 23.2 35.9 Growth rate of migrants (%) 235.2 41.4 39.5 97.5 Growth rate of total pop (%) 15.2 9.0 12.8 27.6 Shanghai Migrant population (million) 1.06 2.51 3.06 5.40 8.98 Total population (million) 13.34 14.14 16.41 18.81 23.02 % migrant population 7.9 17.8 18.6 28.7 39.0 Growth rate of migrants (%) 136.8 21.9 76.5 66.3 Growth rate of total pop (%) 6.0 16.1 14.6 22.4
Main destinations of FDI, 2008
Reconfiguration of urban space No longer the egalitarian, low-profile, and walking-scale socialist city Linkage between work and residence has all but disappeared End of cellular-type of housing built around work units Unprecedented residential mobility Rising role of real estate development Cessation of work-unit compounds Less pedestrian and bicycle oriented
Changing modes in Shanghai 100% 90% Other 80% Walking 70% 60% Bicycle 50% Motorcycle 40% Car 30% 20% Taxi 10% Public transit 0% 1982 1986 1995 2004
Increasing spatial differentiation Concentration of migrants Augmented by social networks that sustain migration flows Return of pre-socialist divisions Migrants dominate poorer neighborhoods in less desirable locations Satellite or daughter communities of migrants Urban villages
Spatial distribution Between 2000 and 2010, many neighborhoods became dominated by migrants, especially outside central city
Sojourners in the city Positioning migrants in urban society Labor is desired but presence unwanted Limited access to urban benefits Most migrants trapped in two housing types in spite of high mobility rates Renting private housing Living in dorm or workshed. Few rural migrants make transition from renters to owners after years in city
Driving forces of expansion Incentive for local governments to covert agricultural land to urban use to generate revenues Financially profitable but uneconomical Urban v. rural land ownership regimes Over-allocation of land for industrial use About 27 percent, compared to 7 in Seoul and 5 in Hong Kong Industrial relocation from urban core enlarges overall proportion
1990 2000 2005 2010
Dilemmas Urban land constitutes Future extra-budgetary revenue Collateral for local borrowing Unsustainable source of financing Decline in land value (from real estate irregularities) could reduce investment End of land capitalization process (circa 2021) Major source of inefficiencies, distorted incentives, and loss of state assets
Dilemmas Negative relationship between land supply and fiscal gap (source: Lu and Sun 2013)
What s the future? Urban China is becoming more stratified both within and across cities Urban system most likely centered around strategically located city-regions Fragile human-environment relationship severely challenged by rising urbanization Urban expansion, often in fragmented and sprawling fashion, will intensify depletion of land, water, and other resources
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