Crisis in the Ukraine! Current Events and Geopoli;cs h=p://storymaps.esri.com/stories/ 2014/crimea/ 1
Background 1991: Ukrainian parliament declares independence from USSR following a=empted coup in Moscow. In a na;onwide referendum in December, 90% vote for independence. Member of CIS (Commonwealth of Ind. States) Charter stated that all the members were sovereign and independent na;ons and thereby effec;vely abolished the Soviet Union 11 members today! 2004: Orange Revolu5on begins aser reports of widespread vote- rigging in presiden;al elec;on nominally won by pro- Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych. Opposi5on candidate Viktor Yushchenko (pro- west and gas cut offs threats) leads mass street protests and civil disobedience. 2010: Viktor Yanukovych is declared winner in presiden;al elec;on, judged free and fair by observers. His main rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, is arrested for abuse of powers and eventually jailed in October 2011 over GAS DEALS. 2
How did Ukraine get so divided? Divided between a super- fer5le steppe in the east and forestland in the west an ecological split that lines up almost perfectly with the linguis5c- poli5cal line in maps. The Russifica;on of Ukraine began 250 years ago with Catherine the Great, who oversaw Russia's "golden age" in the late 1700s. At first, she controlled only eastern Ukraine, where she developed vast coal and iron industries to feed Russia's expansion. 3
2013 - Yanukovych's cabinet abandons an agreement on closer trade 5es with EU, instead seeking closer co- opera5on with Russia. Nov: Protests gather pace, as 100,000 people a=end a demonstra;on in Kiev, the largest in Ukraine since the Orange Revolu;on Dec: Protesters occupy Kiev city hall and Independence Square in drama;c style, turning it into a tent city. Biggest demonstra;on yet sees 800,000 people a=end demonstra;on in Kiev. Vladimir Pu5n throws President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, agreeing to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third. Protest con;nue. VIDEO February 20: Kiev sees its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people are killed in 48 hours. Video shows uniformed snipers firing at protesters holding makeshis shields. Feb 22: President Yanukovych disappears Protesters take control of presiden;al administra;on buildings Parliament votes to remove president from power with elec;ons set for 25 May Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup" His arch- rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail 4
Before and ASer Feb 27-28 : Pro- Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Airport ceased March 1: The European Commission offers Ukraine trade incen;ves worth nearly 500m euros ($694m; 417m). Ukrainian MPs ask the US and UK to use all measures, including military, to stop Russia's aggression. March 2: Ukraine's PM Yatsenyuk says Russia has effec;vely declared war. US says Russia is in control of Crimea. 5
March Break Events Country mobilizes for WAR Barack Obama, Harper etc. pledges to stand with Ukraine Moscow vetoes a dras UN resolu;on cri;cizing Crimea's secession referendum in Crimea. Official results from Crimea's secession referendum say 97% of voters back a proposal to join Russia. Seccession - act of withdrawing from an organiza;on, union, military alliance or especially a poli;cal en;ty Annexa;on - permanent acquisi;on and incorpora;on of some territorial en;ty into another geo- poli;cal en;ty The EU and US impose travel bans and asset freezes on several officials from Russia and Ukraine over the Crimea referendum. Canada sends in OBSERVERS 6
Last few days EU leaders gathered in Brussels condemn Russia's "annexa;on" of Crimea and extend the list of individuals targeted for sanc;ons. The US also extends sanc;ons (sos power!). America has imposed sanc;ons on 27 individuals and one bank to date visa bans and asset freezes Ukraine s sanc;ons on Canada Yanukovych vows to return Interim Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk has said that a parliamentary vote to make Crimea part of Russia was an illegi;mate move. Is Moldova next? Na5onal Geographic? While the rest of the Western world refuses to accept Russia s annexa;on by force of Ukraine s Crimean peninsula, Na#onal Geographic was quick to recognize the territorial takeover. 7
Worldviews on Ukraine Crisis? Ukraine and Ukrainians will be fine. But Russians should be very worried Foreign Affairs ar;cle Russia is Europe's biggest supplier of natural gas, but Ukraine is the key to their distribu;on network! The Ukraine crisis is far more complex than a simple ma=er of East vs. West or Obama vs. Pu;n The West should provide a new Ukrainian government with aid and loans, con;ngent on the ouster of corrupt poli;cians 8
G7? Leaders of the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Japan and Canada condemned what they called "Russia's illegal a=empt to annex Crimea in contraven;on of interna;onal law". On 27 February 2014: NATO Defence Ministers stated that a sovereign, independent and stable Ukraine, firmly commi=ed to democracy and the rule of law, is key to Euro- Atlan;c security. Sanc5ons over Crimea push Russia toward recession, Ukraine's Parliament ousts defense minister; military upgrade wanted US dropped reforms of Interna;onal Monetary Fund governance from a Ukraine aid package embarrassing! Latest Blog updates TERMS and an examples? Annexa;on and secession Sovereignty Co- op;on SoS and Hard Power Devolu;on Suprana;onalism (CIS, EU, NATO) Centrifugal Forces? Centripetal Forces - na;onal culture, shared ideological objec;ves, common faith Sanc;ons 9