Niger Delta Election Violence Update # 2 9 April 2015 Summary

Niger Delta Election Violence Update # 2 9 April 2015 Summary Retired General Muhammadu Buhari (APC) won the Nigerian presidential elections on March 28, defeating incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) who has led the country for the past five years. Although Jonathan s peaceful concession of the election results helped reduce the risk for post-election violence, the weeks preceding the elections included violent rallies, clashes between PDP and APC supporters, and political thugs targeting leaders of both parties. Other conflict issues in the month of March included communal clashes, protests, sexual violence, and armed robberies. While the presidential elections were relatively peaceful in the Niger Delta (albeit with a moderate increase in the number of fatalities during the month of March), the next challenge will be to maintain peace and security during this week s gubernatorial elections, slated for April 11. In many ways, the results of those elections will be more directly salient for local constituents and interests than the presidential, although there are signs that political thugs and militants are perhaps less committed to a single candidate or political party than sometimes feared. This picks up after the previous memo, and captures the latest trends in the nine states, including the dynamics particular to each. P4P Heat map: Incidents in Niger Delta States, March 2015 Sources: P4P, NEEWS2015/TMG, NSRP Sources, Council on Foreign Relations, FFP s UNLocK, Nigeria Watch, ACLED 250 200 150 100 50 0 Niger Delta Fatalities by Month 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 March Conflict Issues by State (Nigeria Watch and ACLED Data) 0 General Insecurity Political Violence 2011 Election Year 2015 Election Year Rivers Delta Imo Edo Akwa_Ibom Bayelsa Cross_River Abia Ondo Line graph shows trends in monthly violent fatalities in the Niger Delta, comparing the 2011 election year with 2015. Overall, the 12 months prior to the 2015 election has been more lethal than in 2010-2011, even with the spike in deaths in Nov/Dec 2010 associated with insurgency/counter-insurgency. Bar graph shows conflict incidents reported from March 2015. Rivers state had the most incidents of general insecurity and political tension. Line Graphs on the following pages draw from Nigeria Watch data (www.nigeriawatch.org) formatted and integrated onto PIND s Peace Map platform.

Building Peace in the Niger Delta A number of initiatives have been under way to reduce the negative effects of conflict before and after the election through early warning and conflict assessment linked to practical interventions on the ground. When data on patterns and trends of conflict risk factors is connected with training and capacity building for response, and amplified by the use of peace journalism in the media, a real difference can be made for peace and security at the local, state, and national levels. Local and international organizations and coalitions such as WANEP Nigeria, the CLEEN Foundation, Search for Common Ground, the Transitional Monitoring Group, Stakeholder Democracy Network, Nigeria Watch, Council on Foreign Relations, ACLED, Partners for Peace, AA PeaceWorks, the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, and The Fund for Peace (FFP) have been collecting data for early warning and conflict assessment and advocacy. The Foundation for Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta (PIND) has facilitated a local network of over 2,700 traditional rulers, government officials, civil society, women s leaders, and youth, who are collaborating on peace and conflict mitigation activities every week, including sensitization and direct mediation efforts. Other organizations, like the Nigeria Stabilization and Reconciliation Programme (NSRP), are also working to support platforms that respond to conflict risk in several Niger Delta states. Initiatives such as Dawn in the Creeks and Shun Wahala seek to promote peace through media outreach on television and radio. PIND actively seeks to leverage and amplify all of these initiatives, so as to multiply their overall effectiveness region-wide. In addition to joint projects and partnerships with many of the above initiatives, one tool supported by PIND is a public, online platform to enable information sharing and outreach. Data from this tool was used in the briefing below. To access the interactive platform, visit www.p4p-nigerdelta.org. Delta State At least 6 people were reported killed in March and the first week of April due to fatal robberies and cross-fire between police and vigilante groups. Compared to January and February of 2015, there was less violence relating to the presidential elections in Delta state in March and the beginning of April according to Nigeria Watch data. At the beginning of April, Urhobo militants claimed responsibility for an attack on a pipeline after reportedly complaining of being excluded from pipeline protection contracts. Other instances of violence and fatalities in this time period were the result of fatal robberies and violence perpetrated by vigilante groups. In once case a community leader was reportedly killed by vigilantes. In another, a woman was killed by a vigilante member who was reportedly shooting indiscriminately. Delta has an estimated population of 4.1 million people (2006 census). The state produces about 35% of Nigeria s crude oil. It has historically been the most violent state in the region (with cultist, militant, communal, and political violence), although recently Rivers has exceeded Delta in the number of incidents and fatalities reported. Since the Warri Crisis of the late 1990s, there remains legacy of group grievance among the Ijaw and the Itsekiri, which has been a factor in the recent controversy over the Escravos Gas Export Processing Zone (EPZ) project. Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan (PDP) won the 2011 election with 52% of the vote, narrowly defeating the DPP Candidate. This year, Ifeanyi Okowa won the PDP primaries and will be running for governor in the 2015 election against Labour Party s Chief Great Ogboru and Olorogun Ortega Emerhor of the APC. Several protests were also reported during the month of March, most of which were peaceful. 2

Rivers State At least 58 people were reported killed in March and the first week of April, more than the months of January and February combined. Rivers was also the most lethal state in the Niger Delta. Most of this violence was related the elections. The most populous state in the Niger Delta, Rivers has an estimated population of 5.2 million (2006 census). It has also been among the most violent states in the region since the militancy deescalated with the introduction of the Amnesty program in 2009. With Governor Amaechi s high profile defection from the ruling party, it has become ground zero for the APC/PDP contest in 2015. Chief Nyesom Wike (PDP) is running against Dr. Dakuku Peterside (APC) for the governorship of the state. Rivers is one state where political violence has clearly spiked in the month of March with violent political rallies in Port Harcourt and Obio-Akpor, and apparent targeted political killings of party members. Several PDP members were reportedly killed in Akuku-Toru and Ikwerre. APC members were reportedly killed in Eleme, Obio/Akpor, and Tai. There were also clashes between supporters of the two parties in Port Harcourt and Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni. Due to the election violence, a curfew was enforced in Rivers on March 30. Since the presidential elections, an LGA chairman and his family of six were killed by gunmen. The house of an APC candidate was burned down. In a recent statement, APC alleged that it had lost about 55 of its members to election violence in Rivers. In addition to political violence, there were also nine reported fatalities due to armed robberies in Port Harcourt. Several were killed in cult violence, not directly related to the elections. 3

Cross River State At least five people were reportedly killed in March and the first week of April. These incidents involved election and communal violence. PDP and Labor Party members clashed in Yakurr, reportedly killing four, injuring 15 and destroying several buildings. The violent encounter reportedly began when PDP members barricaded a road in an attempt to stop a planned Labour rally. This was one of the most bloody incidents of election violence reported in Cross River state in the past few months. The fifth reported fatality in March resulted from a land dispute between two clans near Calabar, killing one man. Cross River state has a history of periodic communal violence, which accounts for the high number of fatalities in April, 2014 in the graph above. Cross River has an estimated population of 2.9 million (2006 census). It is one of the fastest growing states in Nigeria. A long-standing border dispute with neighboring Cameroon ended with the transfer of most of the Bakassi peninsula to Yaoundé in 2013. Although relatively peaceful in comparison with states in the core Niger Delta (Delta, Bayelsa, and Rivers), there have been multiple episodes of inter-communal violence and land competition over the past several years. Governor Liyel Imoke (PDP) was elected in 2007. After an annulment, he won a re -run in 2008, and was elected again in 2012. Benedict Ayade won the PDP primaries in late 2014 to run in the 2015 general elections against Fidelis Utebeki Ugbo (Labour Party) and Odey Anthony Ochicha (APC), among others. 4

Imo State At least three people were reportedly killed in the month of March as a result of vigilante justice, domestic conflict, and a communal clash. In early April, it was reported that a fire destroyed INEC headquarters, raising concerns about state elections on April 11. Imo has a population of approximately 3.9 million people (2006 census). The population is predominantly Igbo (98%). Imo s economy mainly consists of exporting natural resources such as palm oil, mahogany, crude oil, and natural gas. Owelle Rochas Okorocha has been the governor of Imo since May 2011. In 2011, he left the People s Democratic Party (PDP) to run for governor with the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). After being elected, Governor Okorocha fired all 27 local government chairmen and replaced them with a transition committee. Okorocha later switched to the APC. A suspected child thief was identified by a vigilante mob in Owerri and was reportedly clubbed to death. A mob attacked a restaurant on allegations of ritual practices. Meanwhile, in a case of communal violence, it was reported that two communities clashed, killing one man in Ihitte/Uboma. Okorocha will be running against PDP s Emeka Ihedioha in the closely watched gubernatorial election. Several instances of election-related violence occurred but did not result in fatalities. In one case, the supporters of rival political parties clashed during a debate in Owerri. In another, women supporters of the APC barricaded an entrance ahead of President Goodluck Jonathan s visit and were dispersed with tear gas by police. At the beginning of April, a fire destroyed the local INEC headquarters in Mbaitoli LGA. Although it initially appeared to be the result of an electrical malfunction, it was later reported that several individuals were under investigation. A peaceful student protest over university entrance fees also occurred but resulted in no reported fatalities. One man was reportedly killed in a clash between two cult groups. In the graph above the large number of fatalities reported by Nigeria Watch in April, 2014 resulted from a communal clash in Owerri North. Since then, violence resulting in fatalities has decreased significantly. 5

Ondo State After a relatively calm first half of the month, criminal violence rose in Ondo by month s end and continued into the first week of April, with over 30 people reportedly killed over a two week period. There were two reported fatalities in Ondo during the first weeks of March due to interpersonal violence and a clash between police and a suspected cultist. During the second half of the month, however, violence related to criminal activity spiked beginning with the shooting deaths of 16 suspected pirates by police. Then, in the first week of April, a bank robbery reportedly resulted in the death of at least 13 people, including civilians and police officers. Ondo state has a population of approximately 3.44 million (2006 census). The majority are of Yoruba descent, with a sizable minority of those from Ijaw subgroups, particularly along the coast. Ondo derives most of its revenue from the production of cocoa, palm oil, rubber, lumber, and cassava. The state is also rich in oil and minerals. Violence in Ondo was relatively low in comparison to the other Niger Delta states according to Peace Map data. Governor Olusegun Mimiko was reelected in October 2012 as a member of the Labour Party. In 2014 he defected to join the PDP. The next gubernatorial election in Ondo State is slated to be held in 2016. Abia State There were no reported deaths in March and the first week of April in Abia state. Non-fatal incidents were related to a union protests and a bomb scare in Osisioma. Abia has an estimated population of 2.4 million (2006 census), predominantly of Igbo origin. Comparatively, it has not experienced the levels of violence and insecurity that other states in the Niger Delta have between 2012 and the end of 2014. Abia produces about 27% of Nigeria s crude oil and a significant amount of its natural gas. It is also rich in yam, maize, rice, potatoes, and cashews. Theodore Orji (PDP) was reelected as governor of Abia state in 2011. Since the dissolution of the local government administrations in January 2010, there have been no Local Government Area (LGA) level elections although they are scheduled for April 2015. There were no reported instances of election violence before, during, or after the elections in Abia state. There were was one peaceful protest by the National Labour Congress in March and a bomb scare that raised accusations of political intimidation. The device was reportedly defused successfully by police. In the gubernatorial elections, Okezie Ikpeazu (PDP) will be running against Alex Otti (All Progressive Grand Alliance), Anyim Nyerere (APC), and Chinkwe Udensi (Progressive Peoples Alliance). 6

Edo State There were at least seven reported fatalities in Edo in the month of March. In the week leading up to the elections, as well as on the day they were held, at least three people were reported killed in election and political-related violence. There were at least seven reported fatalities during the time period examined. In at least three cases, the deaths resulted from criminal violence and cultrelated activities. These incidents included robberies and the discovery of a corpse suspected to have been used for ritual purposes. At the end of March, there were three deaths reported during a door-to-door campaign among rival political parties. Also, on the day of the elections, it was reported that an APC supporter was clubbed to death by suspected thugs during the election accreditation process. Edo, one of Niger Delta s more violent states between 2012 and 2014 according to P4P Peace Map data, has an estimated population of 3.2 million people (2006 census). Edo s economy centers on agriculture, including food crops and rubber. Mineral resources include granite, limestone, marble, lignite, crude oil, gold, and kaolin clay. Governor Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole assumed office in November 2008, after winning an appeal in the 2007 elections. In July 2012, Oshiomhole was reelected for a second term in a landslide victory. In a sign of escalating inter-party tension, lawmakers attempted and failed to have him impeached in 2014. The next gubernatorial elections are slated for 2016. 7

Akwa Ibom State Four people were reportedly killed in March and the first week of April due to election violence and communal disputes. There were two incidents of election violence in Akwa Ibom. Suspected PDP thugs killed a APC House of Assembly candidate in Ukanafun. An unidentified person was killed while trying to take away a ballot box during the presidential election in Uyo. Other sources reported additional fatalities during a political rally where APC and PDP supporters clashed in southern Akwa Ibom. Additional fatalities included the death of a Nigerian Security and Defense Corps officer who was killed by a mob. A man was also killed during a dispute between two clans. Akwa Ibom has an estimated population of about 3.9 million (2006 census). It is one of the largest petroleum producers in Nigeria. Agricultural products include palm, rubber, cocoa, rice, cassava, yam, plantain, and banana. The state has generally been peaceful, although some incidents of political violence have been reported over the last two election cycles. In 2011, Godswill Akpabio (PDP) won the gubernatorial election with 83.4% of the vote. In late 2014, Udom Emmanuel won the PDP primaries and will run against Samuel Akpan (ACCORD), Effiong Ekaeba (PPN), Duke Dike (UPN), Etebom Itiat (DPP), Obong Richman (AGPA), Obong Atang (AD) Odudu Samuel (APA), Price Atai (ID), Helen Esuene (LP), Sylvester Essien (AA), Umana Bassey (NPC), Utenge Akpaimoh (PPA), and Umana Umana (APC) in the 2015 elections. There were two other, non-fatal. incidents reported in March in Uyo. In one the Nigerian Labor Congress protested alleged voter marginalization and in another wives of airport workers protested for increased workers pay. 8

Bayelsa State At least one person was reported killed in March and the first week of April. The incident was not directly election-related. Bayelsa is one of the smallest states in the country, with an estimated population of 1.7 million (2006 census), mostly of Ijaw descent. It produces between 30 and 40% of Nigeria s oil and gas. Commercial fishing and agriculture, including oil palm, raffia palm, rubber, and coconut also make up a significant portion of the state s economy. Violence in Bayelsa, as measured by the raw number of incidents has historically been in the mid-range when compared to the other Niger Delta states annually. But when calculated on a per capita basis, that ranking increases significantly. The one reported fatality in Bayelsa occurred when an ex-militant was killed by police during a protest in Yenagoa over an oil pipeline surveillance contract. The dispute between the multinational company and a local community group continued into early April, with the group demanding that the company vacate the area in a letter to President Johnathan that was also released to the press. Governor Henry Dickson (PDP) won the election in 2012 after a period of uncertainty in the wake of Governor Sylva s termination. The next gubernatorial elections are slated for 2016. Another incident also involved an ex-militant, during which people attacked his home with dynamite in Yenagoa. No injuries were reported. This update draws on information from data integrated on the P4P Peace Map, as well as Violence in Nigeria: Patterns and Trends by Patricia Taft and Nate Haken, Springer International Publishing, April 2015 FFP partners with NDPI in the design and implementation of PIND s peacebuilding program in the Niger Delta to promote peaceable livelihoods and economic development in the region. 9