Lessons from the Cold War, 1949-1989 Professor Andrea Chandler Learning in Retirement/April-May 2018 Lecture 5: The End of the Cold War LIR/Chandler/Cold War 1 What made possible the end of the Cold War? 4 explanations 1) The weakness of communism, combined with the tough policies of Ronald Reagan 2) The gradual change in attitudes, and improved communications, on both sides 3) The role of leaders: Mikhail Gorbachev, Francois Mitterand, Helmut Kohl 4) A more complicated path of events, considering the dynamics of Soviet reform and its unexpected consequences Consider 1985. Tense relations between United States and Soviet Union due to accumulated issues, such as: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Ongoing tensions over conflicts in Central America, Middle East Ronald Reagan s Star Wars program s implications for nuclear deterrence The deadlock on reaching common understandings of human rights at the Ottawa 1985 CSCE conference meeting on human rights 1
What changed? March 1985: Mikhail Gorbachev came to power as General Secretary of Soviet Communist Party. By mid-1985: he was becoming highly visible and popular By winter 1986: he had secured party loyalty at the Communist Party 26 th Congress By end of 1986: he began first stage of political reform, known as glasnost How was Gorbachev able to start reform? The passing of the WWII generation of Soviet leaders created a window for reform In 1982-4, his mentor Yuri Andropov had already begun a crackdown on corruption A recognition of stalled economic growth and weakened morale in Soviet society A political strategy of consolidating political power before initiating reform Unlike previous Soviet leaders Gorbachev actively sought out liberal-minded academics, sociological research, innovators within the party, and even dissidents such as Andrei Sakharov Gorbachev s Evolving View of Reform Outlined in his book Perestroika (1987) (Perestroika = restructuring, reconstruction) The main challenge to the Soviet system was society s demoralization Economic reform needed to restore social morale and required political reform A more open and cooperate foreign policy would free up resources for social and economic reform. 2
The New Political Thinking Gorbachev s Foreign Minister until end of 1990 was Eduard Shevardnadze Less confrontational, more cooperative, more pragmatic foreign policy: capitalist and socialist world could have cordial relations, indefinitely scale back support, involvement in developing world withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan active pursuit of arms control and other defence agreements with West Idea of common European home The Warsaw Pact nations under perestroika Perestroika disturbed and ultimately de-stabilized hardline regimes, such as GDR (Honecker) Romania (Ceaucescu) Czechoslovakia (Husak) In Poland economic crisis induced Gen. Jaruzelski to start Round Table Talks with the trade union Solidarity Hungary: the first communist regime to allow competitive elections in 1989, and opened its border The collapse of communism in Eastern Europe So-called Sinatra Doctrine Gorbachev and Shevardnadze determined to let East European regimes determine their own affairs no more Soviet interventions After Poland and Hungary elected non-communist governments, communist regimes collapsed rapidly in GDR, Czechoslovakia, Romania and Bulgaria in late 1989-early 1990 Fall of Berlin Wall enabled dialogue to begin on German re-unification 3
Remember USSR survived until late 1989. 1989: Gorbachev introduced partially open elections, a strengthened Soviet parliament, and greater openness within the Communist party A major decentralizing economic reform was implemented 1987-90 Gorbachev was elected President in 1990. But: regime challenged by Scattered outbreaks of ethnic conflict and political violence, Demands for independence in Baltic republics, Georgia and Ukraine, Dramatic disruptions in economic supply and distribution, leading to shortages and rationing Leadership challenges to Gorbachev, especially by Boris Yeltsin, who advocated a transition to a market economy The end of the Cold War in the West The rise of the peace movement and anti-nuclear protests The shift to the right: U.S. (Reagan); UK (Thatcher); FRG (Kohl); Canada (Mulroney): a help or a hindrance? The transformation of the European Economic Community (EEC) to the European Union (EU) 4
The achievements of the end of the Cold War, 1989-91 Defence agreements, especially START I The expansion of the CSCE OSCE U.S. Soviet cooperation in the first Iraq War, 1991 Gorbachev won Nobel Peace Prize in 1990 The 2 + 4 Agreement provided for the reunification of Germany, with the participation of the former Allies. The Cold War s end left some issues that would be problematic in future. 1991: the Warsaw Pact was dismantled but NATO was not. The Soviet Union s economic crisis left it heavily in debt (as were the other East European nations) The USSR collapsed in late 1991 leaving unresolved issues for new Russian President Boris Yeltsin Ethnic conflicts broke out in some of USSR s peripheries, and in Yugoslavia 5