Electoral landscape in Colombia - 2018 ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 1
More tan 30 years experience as public affairs and strategic communication consultant. Former advisor for Colombian President and ministries of Education, Health, Communications and Justice. He also advised the Army of Colombia and the attorney General office. Worked as hosts, editor in chief and director on various national news broadcasts such as QAP, Hora Cero, Noticiero del Medio Día and Buenos Días Colombia. Deputy director, NTN24 international news channel Managing Director at Burson-Marsteller Colombia Héctor Fabio Cardona Managing Director Burson-Marsteller Colombia ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 2
INTRODUCTION ELECTORAL MILESTONES Dec. 13th Candidates electoral registration Ene. 27th Presidential campaign: kick-off May. 27th First round Jun. 17th Second round PRESIDENT CONGRESS Dec, 2015 Jan, 2018 Mar, 2017 Apr, 2018 May, 2018 Jun, 2018 Dec. 11th Congress electoral registration Ene. 11th Congress campaign: kick-off Mar. 11th Election day ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 3
INTRODUCTION INITIAL CONCEPTS 1 2 3 Colombia is the oldest democracy in Latin America but still it is a weak one Colombia is the only country that has kept an open markets model that respect for investment President Santos is unpopular ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 4
GENERAL CONTEXT MAIN ISSUES OF THE ELECTORAL AGENDA VENEZUELA CORRUPTION PEACE ECONOMY Anti-Venezuela speech (Favors right-wing bias) Non-traditional vs Traditional Candidates Peace agreement supporters VS Peace agreement rejecters (Political polarization) Inmerse in a weak economy, return to a strong economic growth path (Industrial production and retail sales) ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 5
GENERAL CONTEXT MAIN ISSUES DE LA AGENDA ELECTORAL Main concerns : Unemployment Health Corruption However, key topics in the electoral debate might change What is the main problem that next President should resolve? May/17 Sep/17 Unemployment 21,5% 21,9% Health Quality and Coverage 20,9% 21,6% Corruption 20,7% 19,6% Education Quality and Coverage 7,9% 9,0% Poverty 4,5% 5,1% Common Crime 4,2% 4,8% Cost of Living 2,9% 2,9% To sign the Peace Agreement with ELN 2,4% 2,4% To Activate the Economy 1,6% 2,1% Implement the agreement with the FARC 2,5% 1,6% Helpless Childhood 2,2% 1,4% Criminal Gangs 1,9% 1,3% To activate the Countryside and Agro 1,6% 1,3% Transport and Roads Quality and Coverage 0,8% 1,2% Drug Trafficking 0,7% 1,1% Public Services Quality and Coverage 0,7% 0,9% The Displaced by Violence 0,4% 0,8% Effects for Colombia of the situation in Venezuela - 0,7% Does not know / Does not answer 1,1% 0,3% Construction of Popular Housing 1,4% 0,2% International Relationships 0,1% 0,0% Base: Total respondents (12000) ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 6
ELECTORAL BATTLEGROUND PLAYERS ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 7
ELECTORAL BATTLEGROUND MAIN PLAYERS CENTRE-LEFT RIGHT Sergio Fajardo ALIANZA VERDE Humberto de la Calle PARTIDO LIBERAL Germán Vargas CAMBIO RADICAL Iván Duque CENTRO DEMOCRÁTICO BACKGROUND: Medellin's former Mayor and Antioquia s former Governor. Academic and university professor. * Political work outside traditional parties. * Perceived as a leftish candidate ** BACKGROUND: Former vicepresident (Ernesto Samper). He resigned when president began an impeachment process * BACKGROUND: Grandson of former Colombia s president * Led the construction of infrastructure with great results during Santos Gov *Chief negotiator from Gov. of process that lead to the end of the conflict with the FARC. violence scandals ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 8 * The political party that he leads has been involved in diverse corruption and BACKGROUND: Congressman Centro Democrático (CD) / He focuses on economic issues * He might lack support from some CD members * He is the most moderated candidate at CD
ELECTORAL BATTLEGROUND ORDERING THE TABLE The number of candidates will be reduced. Some coalitions are foreseen. Vice-president candidates definition is fundamental to define vote intentions. Center-parties candidates are currently the most positioned. The later can change if the agenda is taken by polarizing topics. Most candidates will not be able to grow beyond the boundaries shown in the diagram. The exception are independent candidates who can bring together a variety of topics with more open-minded speeches. (i.e. S. Fajardo y C. López). This diagram fails to present the power of parties political machinery. The later would be known in 2018 after the congress elections. ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE IN COLOMBIA - 2018 9
ELECTORAL BATTLEGROUND A PICTURE OF THE DAY If the presidential election were held today who would you vote for? As political coalitions evolve and politics develop their candidacy, voters preferences would change. Candidates will position themselves, depending on the topics highlighted during the campaign Blank Vote Indecisive voters are not included (8,2%) ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 10
ELECTORAL BATTLEGROUND A PICTURE OF THE DAY Do you know and have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person? Recognize the candidate Favorable Unfavorable Do you know and have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person? Recognize the candidate Favorable Unfavorable ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 11
KEY TOPICS FARC What does presidential elections mean to FARC? Continuity (or not) with the implementation of Peace Agreements. From 2018 on, FARC s political party will have the right of having 10 seats in Congress. In 2019 local elections, FARC would look after to increase their political force. It is not likely for FARC to reach Presidency in the coming years. However, they could consolidate a political platform in zones that were affected by the armed conflict. FARC will be a relevant player in development projects that include zones affected by the conflict. They would even look for private allies to carry out business projects. PANORAMA ELECTORAL COLOMBIA 2018 12
KEY TOPICS CAUDILLISMO? Colombia has institutional stability, but there are still some important challenges. Colombian economy, as well as many other in LatAm, depends on commodities; therefore, Colombia is vulnerable to global market s volatility. A weak economic growth affects political institutions and creates social discontent. Both factors promote caudillismo to emerge. PANORAMA ELECTORAL COLOMBIA 2018 13
KEY TOPICS ROOM FOR NON-TRADITIONAL POLITICS? Confrontation between Government and opposition permeated public agenda in 2010. In 2018 the same confrontation would lead Colombian politics Macron and D. Trump are examples in the international arena of what can be considered a success of anti-establishments movements Independent parties In 2010, independent parties led by Sergio Fajardo and A. Mockus offered a different and nouvelle choice to voters G.Vargas Lleras (current government candidate) epitomizes traditional establishment. President Santos is very Following 2010 experience, unpopular, despite peace it was evident that it is process accomplishments possible to permeate political mindset through non traditional politics ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 14
KEY TOPICS INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Economic background Candidates with more likelihood of winning the elections would favor private investment. Major risks to foreign investment is a low economic growth that could make caudillismo to gain force. Candidates that favor protectionism have low likelihood of winning elections (i.e. Piedad Córdoba, Gustavo Petro y Jorge Robledo). In the last two years, Colombia has had a slow economic growth, but it is still above region s average. Colombia has managed to offset the weakness in international commodity prices. Industrial and exports growth figures have lately shown some recovery Inflation is under control. Next government s task will be to incentive internal demand, for which improving consumer confidence would be the most relevant issue. PANORAMA ELECTORAL COLOMBIA 2018 15
HECTOR FABIO CARDONA MANAGING DIRECTOR B-M COLOMBIA hector.cardona@bm.com M. +57 318 370 1666 BURSON-MARSTELLER www.burson-marsteller.com www.bmcolombiablog.co T. +571 745-6200 D. CRA 9 # 101-67, OF 302. EDIF NAOS. BOGOTÁ, COLOMBIA ELECTORAL PANORAMA LANDSCAPE ELECTORAL IN COLOMBIA - 2018 16