PACIFIC POSSIBLE CONSULTATIONS OF CONCEPT Franz Drees-Gross, Country Director, Timor Leste, PNG and Pacific Islands Robert Utz, Program Leader, Timor Leste, PNG and Pacific Islands Venkatesh Sundararaman, Program Leader, Timor Leste, PNG and Pacific Islands
Timor Leste Study Countries for Pacific Possible
Why Pacific Possible?
Why Pacific Possible? Achieving higher economic growth and improved standards of living is a key challenge for the Pacific Remoteness, small size, and dispersion limit economic opportunities Manufacturing-based, export led growth not a feasible development model for most PICs Fully exploiting a more narrow set of economic growth opportunities is therefore key
What is new? Pacific Plan, Pacific 2010 and Pacific 2020 offer wide coverage of development issues Thin capacity constrains implementation of wide reform agendas Focus on a few potentially transformative economic opportunities and challenges Seek to quantify the potential magnitude of these opportunities while managing a number of key risks that would otherwise undermine the development gains Long-term perspective and focus on linkages among issues Offer new ideas on development opportunities Based on the understanding that progress will require action not only by PICs, but also by developed and large countries in the region and by development partners A combination of advocacy on some issues and a stock take of others
Pacific Possible will not Provide a comprehensive assessment of all development issues Offer a regional or national development roadmap Pacific Possible is intended as an input to a development vision that must be developed by PICs and their regional organizations
How will we do it? Currently consulting on focus before formulating a concept note Seeking wide partnerships especially with regional organizations and academic and research institutions Preserve independence by having other development partners engaged through consultations, peer review etc. but not joint authorship Once issues have been identified and agreed, commission back ground papers seeking collaboration of leading experts inside and outside the region
Timing Convene consultations on draft background papers (second half of 2015) Prepare overall Pacific Possible report (First half of 2016) Consultations on draft report (mid 2016) Dissemination (second half of 2016)
Six proposed themes Harnessing the Riches of the Pacific Ocean Labor Mobility Islands in a Sea of Knowledge Managing Increasing Stress on Pacific Livelihoods Host to the World Working Together
1. Ocean Resources (i): Fisheries
1. Ocean Resources (i): Fisheries Oceanic and coastal fisheries central to many PIC economies Large revenue gains since introduction of Vessel Day Scheme Scope for further gains through improvements to VDS and expansion to long line fisheries, albacore, etc Options for enhancing employment and public-private partnerships require review Coastal fisheries important for subsistence and incomes as well as employment Scope for aquaculture Conservation issues and trade-offs important Managing revenue and avoiding resource curse critical
1. Ocean Resources (ii): deep sea mining
1. Ocean Resources (ii): deep sea mining Several PICs have large EEZs: Kiribati (3.6m km 2 ), PNG (3.1m km 2 ), FSM (3.0m km 2 ), RMI (2.1m km 2 ). Growing interest in 3 types of DSM deposits: seafloor massive sulfides (SMS), cobalt-rich crusts (CRC); and manganese/polymetallic nodules ( nodules ). Hundreds of DSM exploration licenses issued over past 5 years over 1.5m km 2 of ocean floor mostly in The Area (ISA, Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone, CCFZ) but also in national jurisdictions (PNG, SI, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga). First mining lease (PNG, Solwara 1, SMS, 2011 with Nautilus. Production in 2018?). SI next? Companies from China (COMRA), Korea (KIOST), Canada (Nautilus), Neptune (US), UK, India, Japan, Russia, France, Germany, etc. Could be an important source of revenue, but also important concerns, often by extrapolation of on-shore failures: (i) environmental damage ( on-shore mining, logging); (ii) social unrest ( mining); (iii) failure to capture proper returns ( fishing); and (iv) management of revenue streams (phosphates). Clear need for adequate regulation of licensing, environmental impacts, taxation etc. to avoid an unmanageable situation. Stock take of current situation and prospective opportunities and challenges.
2. Islands in a Sea of Knowledge
2. Islands in a Sea of Knowledge Most PICs have invested in ICT and deregulated their telecoms sectors creating a favorable environment for moving into the knowledge economy (KE) ICT is a key enabler of the KE, and ICT applications can facilitate delivery of economic, social, government services to citizens (elearning, e-health, e-government, e-money ) PICs can take advantage of the twin forces of globalization and technological advances to use knowledge better for economic and social development and overcome constraints imposed by distance But the KE is not just about ICT or high-tech industries -- rather than create an effective KE in the medium to long run, countries should develop an educated and skilled population, an efficient innovation system, a dynamic ICT sector, buttressed by an enabling economic and institutional environment (look at Finland, Ireland, Korea, Singapore ) Fostering innovation and entrepreneurship critical to developing new opportunities (Fiji water, Noni juice, Pure Fiji beauty products.)
3. Host to the World
3. Host to the World Tourism sector has performed below expectations in most Pacific Island countries Air access/cost major constraint for development of tourism sector Scope for diversifying source markets and tourism offers Tourists from China increasingly creating new opportunities and challenges Beyond tourism retirement domiciles, conferences, safe haven locations, diaspora
4. Labor Mobility
4. Labor Mobility Important element of Pacific livelihood strategies Countries facing different opportunities and challenges (Compact countries, Samoa and Tonga with well established diasporas, and countries with very limited access to labor mobility opportunities) Particular focus on atoll nations where climate change and sea level rise could reduce the carrying capacity of affected islands Strong evidence on triple wins from labor mobility but also political sensitivities, social issues, and concerns about brain drain Diasporas can create new opportunities beyond remittances and become important drivers of development
5. Managing increasing Stress on Pacific Livelihoods
5. Managing increasing Stress on Pacific Livelihoods Natural disasters, climate change and rising sea levels Non-communicable diseases Changes to the social fabric of Pacific societies Pacific Possible would seek to quantify the impact of these threats on GDP Highlight strategies to mitigate threats
6. Working Together
6. Working Together Working together is key to overcoming limitations arising from the small population size of PICs Working together with multiple partners other PICs, developed and large economies in the region Australia, New Zealand, US, China, Japan Democratic change in Fiji, economic strengthening of PNG, and emergence of non-traditional development partners such as Korea, Malaysia, India create new opportunities Pacific Possible will seek to quantify potential gains from working together in concrete ways (e.g., medical procurement) Pacific Possible will also seek to generate new ideas on opportunities for working together among the various stakeholders in the Pacific
Three (3) Cross-cutting Themes Poverty & Social Impacts Environmental Impacts Gender Impacts
Partnership Arrangements Advisory Committee Finance Ministers from the Pacific; Senior Representatives from Australia, China, Japan, Korea, New Zealand and USA Reference Group Senior civil servants from Pacific and development partners; Private sector representatives (chambers of commerce); NGOs Research Partners Pacific Island Forum Crop Agencies, Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC), universities
Seeking Inputs on: Are we looking at the right issues? How can we make sure we add value? What are appropriate partnership arrangements? How can we coordinate with and support related work in the region?