ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 1-5 July Attention: Television New Zealand Contact: (04) 913-3000 Release date: 9 July Level One, 6-10 The Strand PO Box 33690 Takapuna Auckland 0740 Ph: (09) 919-9200 Level 9, Legal House 101 Lambton Quay PO Box 3622, Wellington 6011 Ph: (04) 913-3000 www.colmarbrunton.co.nz
Contents Contents... 1 Methodology summary... 2 Summary of results... 3 Key political events... 4 Question order and wording... 5 Party vote... 6 Preferred Prime Minister... 8 Economic outlook... 10 Euthanasia... 12 America s Cup campaign... 13 Cannabis legalisation... 14 Plastic bag levy... 15 Parliamentary seat entitlement... 16 Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement... 16 ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 1
Methodology summary CLIENT: Television New Zealand. RELEASED: Sunday 9 July. POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Saturday 1 July Wednesday 5 July. MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: TARGET POPULATION: SAMPLE POPULATION: SAMPLE SELECTION: SAMPLE SIZE: SAMPLING ERROR: INTERVIEW METHOD: WEIGHTING: REPORTED FIGURES: Sunday (50% of sample size target was reached on this day). Eligible New Zealand voters. Eligible New Zealand voters who live in New Zealand households that have a landline telephone. Nationwide random digit dialling of landline telephones using stratified probability sampling to ensure the sample includes the correct proportion of people in urban and rural areas. Interviewers ask to speak to the person in each household aged 18 years or over with the next birthday. When required, multiple calls are made to reach that person. Voting eligibility is determined at the first question. n = 1,007 eligible voters. The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level. These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters. Conducted by CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). The data have been weighted to align with Statistics New Zealand population counts for age, gender, household size and ethnic identification. Reported bases are unweighted. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 5%, which are reported to 1 decimal place. For all other figures percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers except those less than 1%, which are reported to 1 decimal place. All sub-group differences listed for supplementary questions are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. METHODOLOGY NOTES: The party vote question has been asked unprompted since February 1997. Note: The data does not take into account the effects of non-voting and therefore cannot be used to predict the outcome of an election. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are therefore only indicative of trends in party support, and it would be misleading to report otherwise. This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction of the results must be acknowledged as the ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll. ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 2
Summary of results PARTY SUPPORT PARTY VOTE National Party 47% Down 2%-points from 27-31 May Labour Party 27% Down 3%-points Green Party 11% Up 2%-points New Zealand First 11% Up 2%-points Māori Party 2% Up 1%-point The Opportunities Party 1% Steady UNDECIDED VOTERS Party Vote Don t know or refused 19% Up 2%-points from 27-31 May PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER Bill English 26% Down 3%-points from 27-31 May Winston Peters 11% Up 4%-points Jacinda Ardern 6% Steady Andrew Little 5% Down 3%-points ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Optimism 47% Down 3%-points from 27-31 May Pessimism 22% Steady The results shown on this page, and the changes identified over time, are reported to the nearest whole number. More detailed results are provided in the body of this report. ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 3
Key political events 21 June 5 July National MP Todd Barclay announced he would not stand in the upcoming General Election after it was revealed he allegedly took secret recordings of staff in his electorate office. Prime Minister Bill English was also under scrutiny, having been asked questions in Parliament about his knowledge of the matter by Labour leader Andrew Little. Unpaid, international interns complained about the condition of their accommodation at a marae. They were brought to New Zealand by the Labour Party to assist with its election campaign. The Labour Party admitted the scheme had got out of control. An assisted dying bill drafted by ACT leader David Seymour was drawn from Parliament s ballot. MPs will vote on whether assisted dying will be legalised. The Government announced that it would invest $5 million in Team New Zealand to help it retain personnel for the next America s Cup. No announcement was made about whether they would provide funding for defence of the Cup. The Drug Foundation unveiled a plan at Parliament that would see criminal penalties removed for personal possession, use, and social supply of all drugs. Commercial supply and trafficking would remain illegal. An open letter urging the Government to employ a plastic bag levy in New Zealand gained widespread support. Wellington Mayor Justin Lester began circulating the letter. Former Labour Party MP Shane Jones announced he will stand for the New Zealand First party in Whangarei at the General Election. Prime Minister Bill English and former Minister for Immigration, Nathan Guy, defended the decision to grant American billionaire Peter Thiel New Zealand citizenship. Thiel had only spent 12 days in New Zealand before he was granted citizenship. Prime Minister Bill English hinted that the National Party would consider further tax cuts if they were to be re-elected, but they would not campaign on the issue. The Labour Party released a policy that would see the minimum wage raised to $16.50 an hour along with other changes to employment laws. ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 4
Question order and wording Voting eligibility If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote? NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll. Likelihood to vote If a general election was held today, how likely would you be to vote? NOTE: Those claiming they would be quite likely or very likely to vote have been included in the party support analysis. Introduction Under MMP you get two votes. One is for a political party and is called a party vote. The other is for your local MP and is called an electorate vote. Party vote Firstly thinking about the Party Vote which is for a political party. Which political party would you vote for? IF DON T KNOW Which one would you be most likely to vote for? Preferred Prime Minister Thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister? IF NONE Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister? Economic outlook And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a worse state? ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 5
Party vote Which political party would you vote for? IF DON T KNOW Which one would you be most likely to vote for? 3-7 Sep 2016 12-13,21-23 Nov 2016 11-15 Feb 18-22 March 27-31 May Don t know 10% 13% 12% 10% 12% 15% Refused 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 1-5 Jul TOTAL 13% 16% 15% 14% 17%* 19%* Base (n=) 1,013 1,010 1,003 1,003 1,007 1,007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding 3-7 Sep 2016 12-13,21-23 Nov 2016 11-15 Feb 18-22 March 27-31 May National Party 48% 50% 46% 46% 49% 47% Labour Party 26% 28% 30% 30% 30% 27% Green Party 13% 11% 11% 11% 9% 11% New Zealand First 11% 10% 11% 8% 9% 11% Māori Party 1.8% 1.0% 0.7% 3.7% 0.6% 1.8% The Opportunities Party** 1-5 Jul 0.4% 1.4% 1.1% Mana Party - - 0.8% 0.2% - 0.3% ACT Party 0.5% - 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% United Future - - 0.3% - - 0.2% Conservative Party 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% <0.1% 0.1% Other - - - 0.6% - - TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* Base (n=) 845 839 808 808 801 789 Based on probed party supporters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding. **The Opportunities Party was registered on the 8 th March ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 6
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll Party Vote 60% 50% National 40% 30% Labour 20% 10% Green NZ First 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 National Labour NZ First ACT Green United Future Maori Note: Line markers indicate significant differences from the previous poll at the 95% confidence level, and error bars display the 95% confidence interval for each National, Labour, Green and NZ First Party result. Error bars and markers are not displayed for other parties because they would be indistinguishable on the chart. Significance testing carried out back to the 2011 general Election.
Preferred Prime Minister Now thinking about all current MPs of any party, which one would you personally prefer to be Prime Minister? IF NONE: Is there anyone who is not a current MP who you would prefer to be Prime Minister? 3-7 Sep 2016 12-13,21-23 Nov 2016 11-15 Feb 18-22 March 27-31 May Bill English - - 31% 26% 29% 26% Winston Peters 11% 8% 8% 9% 7% 11% Jacinda Ardern 1% 1% 4% 9% 6% 6% Andrew Little 10% 8% 7% 7% 8% 5% John Key 38% 36% 2% 2% 2% 1% Paula Bennett 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1% 0.4% 1% Gareth Morgan - 0.1% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.7% Hone Harawira - - - 0.3% - 0.5% James Shaw 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% Grant Robertson 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% Phil Goff 0.6% 1% - 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% Judith Collins 0.1% - 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Metiria Turei 0.3% 1% 2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% David Cunliffe 0.2% - 0.6% 0.3% - 0.1% Steven Joyce - 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% David Parker - - - 0.1% - 0.1% Tariana Turia - 0.2% 0.1% - 0.1% 0.1% Kim Dotcom - - - - 0.4% - David Shearer 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% <0.1% 0.3% - Helen Clark 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% - Te Ururoa Flavell 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% - 0.2% - Peter Dunne - 0.3% - 0.2% 0.1% - Annette King 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% - - Russel Norman - - 0.2% - - - Shane Jones - 0.1% 0.1% - - - Trevor Mallard - - 0.1% - - - Gerry Brownlee - 0.1% - - - - Simon Bridges 0.1% - - - - - Other 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% Don t know 30% 34% 36% 37% 39% 41% None 3% 2% 4% 3% 2% 3% Refused 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1-5 Jul TOTAL 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* 100%* Base (n=) 1,013 1,010 1,003 1,003 1,007 1,007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding. ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 8
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll Preferred Prime Minister 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bill English Andrew Little Winston Peters Jacinda Ardern John Key David Cunliffe David Shearer Phil Goff
Economic outlook And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a worse state? 3-7 Sep 2016 12-13,21-23 Nov 2016 11-15 Feb 18-22 March 27-31 May Better 45% 43% 48% 46% 50% 47% Same 24% 24% 30% 28% 27% 32% Worse 31% 33% 22% 26% 22% 22% 1-5 Jul TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%* 100%* Base (n=) 1,013 1,010 1,003 1,003 1,007 1,007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 10
ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll Economic Outlook 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Better Worse
Euthanasia Parliament is to consider a new bill on euthanasia. Do you think a person who is terminally or incurably ill should be able to request the assistance of a doctor to end their life? Total Eligible New Zealand Voters Yes 74% No 18% Don t know 9% Total 100%* Base (n=) 1,007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding Three quarters of New Zealand voters believe people who are terminally or incurably ill should be able to request the assistance of a doctor to end their life (74%). Eighteen percent do not believe this should be possible, while the remaining 9% are unsure. There are very few demographic differences on this issue which are statistically significant. New Zealand Europeans are more likely than average to support euthanasia (78% vs. 74% on average). Asians are less likely than average to support it (58% vs. 74%) and more likely to be undecided (23% vs. 9% on average). ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 12
America s Cup campaign Should the Government contribute taxpayer money to the next America s Cup campaign? 1 Total Eligible New Zealand Voters Yes 57% No 34% Don t know 9% Total 100% Base (n=) 1,007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. The majority of New Zealand voters (57%) believe the Government should contribute taxpayer money to the next America s Cup campaign. One in three are opposed to this (34%), while the remaining 9% are unsure. Those groups of New Zealand voters more likely than average (57%) to believe the Government should contribute taxpayer money to the next America s Cup campaign include: older people, aged 55 years and over (70%) National party supporters (69%) those living in households with an annual household income of over $100,000 (65%) New Zealand Europeans (64%). Those groups of New Zealand voters more likely than average (34%) not to believe the Government should contribute taxpayer money to the next America s Cup campaign include: Women (37% vs. 30% of men). 1 The Government announced it would put up $5m to help retain personnel for the next cup on Monday 3 July. This was mid- way through the fieldwork. ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 13
Cannabis legalisation It has been suggested that the sale of cannabis should be legalised. Its cultivation and sale would be regulated. Do you support or oppose this idea? 2 Total Eligible New Zealand Voters Support 47% Oppose 41% Don t know 12% Total 100% Base (n=) 1,007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. New Zealand voters are divided about the idea of legalising cannabis. Just under half (47%) support the legalisation of the sale of cannabis, assuming its cultivation and sale is regulated. However, two in five (41%) oppose it. The remaining 12% are unsure. Those groups of New Zealand voters more likely than average (47%) to support the legalisation of the sale of cannabis include: Māori (71%) Green party supporters (68%) those living in households with an annual household income of over $70,000, and up to $100,000 (59%). Those groups of New Zealand voters more likely than average (41%) to oppose the legalisation of the sale of cannabis include: older people, aged 55 years and over (49%) National party supporters (49%). 2 The question order was rotated so approximately half of respondents were asked Do you oppose or support this idea? ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 14
Plastic bag levy It has been suggested that New Zealand stores should charge consumers for plastic bags. The charge would be 15 cents per bag. The purpose of the charge is to reduce the impact of plastic bags on the environment, including animals and marine life. The money raised from the charge would go towards organisations who aim to reduce waste. Do you think introducing a charge for plastic bags is? 3 Total Eligible New Zealand Voters Nov 2016 Total Eligible New Zealand Voters July A good idea 78% 82% A bad idea 19% 15% Don t know 3% 4% TOTAL 100% 100%* Base (n=) 1,010 1007 Based on eligible New Zealand voters. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding Over four in five (82%) eligible New Zealand voters believe it would be a good idea for New Zealand stores to charge consumers 15c per plastic bag in order to reduce waste. This represents a statistically significant increase in support for a plastic bag charge since November 2016 (78%). Fifteen percent think the charge would be a bad idea, which again is a statistically significant decrease in opposition to a charge since November 2016 (19%). At present, 4% answer don t know. Those more likely than average (82%) to say the plastic bag charge is a good idea include: those living in households with an annual household income of over $70,000, and up to $100,000 (88%). women (86%, vs. 77% of men) New Zealand Europeans (85%). Those more likely than average (15%) to say the plastic bag charge is a bad idea include: single person households (22%) older people, aged 55 years and over (18%). 3 The question order was rotated so approximately half of respondents were asked Do you think introducing a charge for plastic bags is a bad idea or a good idea? ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 15
Parliamentary seat entitlement The following table shows the parliamentary seat entitlement according to the results reported in this poll. The table assumes United Future, ACT, New Zealand First, and the Māori Party each win one electorate seat. Number of seats National Party 57 Labour Party 33 Green Party 14 New Zealand First 14 Māori Party 2 ACT Party 1* United Future New Zealand 1* TOTAL 122 * Indicates one (or more) overhang seats Method for calculating parliamentary seat entitlement The St Laguë method is used by the Chief Electoral Officer at election time to convert the number of votes for each party into the number of seats they get in Parliament. It is applied to all the parties which are eligible, either by exceeding the 5% threshold or by winning at least one electorate seat. More information about the St Laguë method can be obtained directly from the Electoral Commission. ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll - Page 16