Oregon and STEM+ Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among Young Oregonians 1
What is STEM and STEM+? STEM refers to college degrees where graduates majored in Science, Technology, Engineering or Math STEM+ refers to STEM majors plus Business and Health Better job opportunities Rough approximation of so-called good degrees 2
Focus of Report Young Oregonians and Migrants About half of migrants are 20- and 30-somethings 1 in 4 are young college graduates Root-setting years matter for longerrun economic development 3
Most Migrants are Young Who Moves to Oregon? Domestic Net Migration by Age, 2014 12,000 10,000 8,000 Approx. half of all migrants are 20- and 30-somethings 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Children (0-17) College Age (18-24) Root- Setting (25-34) Peak Working (35-44) Peak Earning (45-54) Late Career (55-64) Retirees (65+) Factors that increase migration: Single, college educated, not employed, youth, higher income Data: American Community Survey Source: Census, 4
Root-Setting Years Matter 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Oregon Population by Age, 2015 Root- Setting Years 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Source: Oregon Office Office of Economic of Economic Analysis Analysis Most people settle down, begin their careers in earnest, get married, have kids, and buy a house Vital for longer run economic development, as once settled, people much less likely to move 5
What Influences Migration Rates? 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Educated Influx into Oregon Migration Rates to Oregon by Educational Attainment among 20-39 Year Olds, 2014 HS or Less Some College All Other STEM+ College Graduate Data: Net domestic + international migrants divided by resident population Source: Census, Factors leading to higher probability of migrating: Youth Single Not employed Lower income Higher educational attainment 1 in 4 migrants to Oregon are in their 20s or 30s and hold at least a Bachelor s 6
STEM+ Trends in Oregon 7
Majority of Migrants are STEM+ 100% 75% 50% Young Migrants in Oregon Net Migration, 20-39 Year Olds, Bachelor's or Higher STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees Young U.S. college graduate population is 52% STEM+, 48% All Other Since 2009, 55% of Oregon s net migrants hold STEM+ degrees 25% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health Degrees Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon s mix is well balanced, what makes the state unique is the strong overall gains 8
All Other Degrees Migration Rate Oregon is a National Leader 2% 1% 0% College Educated Migration by State Migration Rates by Degree Type, 20-39 Year Olds, 2014 Oregon ranks 6th best nationally in migration among all degree types, 12th best among STEM+ degrees and 7th best among all other. AK DE WY CO WA ND MA OR ME SC NV VT AZ NM AL NY KYAR TN VA TX CA WV MN MD MI MT NENC FL LA IL IN ID MO GA CT HI MS WI SD UT OH OK NJ PA KS IA -1% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% STEM+ Migration Rate Calculation: Net migration by degree type divided by total population 20-39 years old Source: IPUMS-USA, RI NH DC 9
Oregon is a Migration Destination 1 Young Educated Migrants and Oregon 20-39 Years Old, 1 = Largest or Fastest All Degrees STEM+ Other 12th 16th 8th 6th 12th 7th Oregon is a medium sized state and the local college educated population is too 51 26th 28th 24th Resident Population No. of Net Migrants Data: 2014 ACS, All 50 states plus DC, Education Attainment of Bachelor's or More Source: IPUMS-USA, Migration Rate However migration trends are strong in both the actual number of net migrants, but particularly so in migration rates 10
Education and the Labor Market 11
Educated Influx into Oregon 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Educated Influx into Oregon Share with Bachelor's or More, 25 Years and Older In-migrants Out-migrants Oregon Population 2007 2010 2014 Note: Domestic migrants only Source: Census, Migrants have higher educational attainment than the overall population In- and out-migrant attainment is similar, but actual number of in-migrants is larger than out-migrants Net migration increases Oregon s educational attainment 12
Higher Participation and Employment Rates Educational Attainment and Employment 25-39 Year Old Oregonians, 2014 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Labor Force Participation Employment-Population Labor force participation rates and employment increase with educational attainment 0% Less Than HS Source: IPUMS-USA, High School Some College Degree, All Others Educational Attainment Degree, STEM+ 13
But What Type of Jobs? What Do Young Oregonians Do? 25-39 Year Olds, 2014 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Not Employed Employed in Non-Degree Job Employed in Degree Job Less Than HS High School Some College Educational Attainment Degree, All Others Degree, STEM+ A Degree Job is an individual occupation that requires a Bachelor s or more for an entry-level hire, per U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, 14
Average Wages are Higher $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 Average Wages by Educational Attainment 25-39 Year Old Oregonians, All Workers (PT and FT), 2014 Research has found that every year of additional schooling results in higher wages $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Less Than HS High School Some College Degree, All Others Degree, STEM+ STEM+ graduates earn a premium even above other college graduates Educational Attainment Source: IPUMS-USA, 15
Barriers to Increasing Educational Attainment, STEM+ or Otherwise 16
Student Loan Debt 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Student Loan Debt as Share of Personal Income Oregon U.S. 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Oregonian student loan debt totaled $15.6b in 2014q4 Equivalent to 9.3% of statewide total personal income Default rate 11.5% Median state: 11.2% Worst outcomes for those who don t graduate yet incur debt burden For More: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/03/14/education-and-student-debt/ 17
Demographics 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 College Age Population in Oregon 18-24 Year Olds 200,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Forecast --> Overall demographics flat for college age population Millennials aging Easy demographic gains are over, must rely upon increasing educational attainment within stable population cohort 18
State Comparisons 19
Young STEM+ Migration, 2014 Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with STEM+ Bachelor s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old < 0% 0% -.19%.2% -.49% >.5% STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health Source: IPUMS-USA,
Pacific Northwest Migration Migration of 20-39 Year Olds with Bachelor s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old All College Educated Migrants STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% -2% -1% 0% 1% -2% -1% 0% 1% Washington 2nd 3rd 3rd Oregon 6th 12th 7th Idaho 42nd 42nd 36th Montana 45th 47th 29th Alaska 50th 50th 50th 21
Pacific Northwest Job Type 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% What Young College Educated Northwesterns Do 25-39 Year Olds, Bachelors' or More, 2014 Not Employed Alaska Idaho Montana Oregon Washington Non-Degree Job Degree Job Not Employed Non-Degree Job Degree Job All Other Degrees Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, STEM+ Degrees 22
Metro Comparisons 23
Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 1) Among largest metros in country, Portland has a below average share of STEM+ degrees and an above average share of all other degrees, among the working age population http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/ 24
Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 2) Looking at inmigration rates across major metros, Portland is a leader for both STEM+ and all other degrees http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/ 25
Summary Root-setting age households are vital for regional economic development Oregon, along with its Left Coast peers, is a national leader in attracting young, college educated migrants STEM+ migrants are the majority into Oregon STEM+ graduates have higher labor force participation rates and earn higher average wages Combined, all of the above bodes well for Oregon s economic future 26
Contact www.oregoneconomicanalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis joshua.lehner@oregon.gov (503) 378-4052 27