Demographic transition and international migration Philippe Fargues IXth Migration Summer School Theories, Methods and Policies 17-28 June 2013
Demographic transition and international migration The impact of international migration on demographic transition Demographic convergence in host societies Models transmitted to home societies Wider implications The impact of demographic transition on international migration Unprecedented availability for migration From migrants with a family to single migrants From remittances- to human capital-driven migration High immigration and low fertility in post-transitional populations Conservative view: the fear of being replaced with aliens Liberal view: playing demographic complementarities Iconoclastic view: Migrants as conveyors of values
A framework of interaction between international migration and demographic transition Part I Ideational remittances International migration Fertility transition Part II Changing life cycle
Figure 1: Ideational remittances and patterns of family building Initial patterns of family building in the source country Resulting patterns of family building in the source country Flows of migrants Flows of ideas Demographic adjustment to the host country
Stabdardised index Figure 3: Birth rates and remittances in Morocco 1975-2007 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Birth rates Remittances (current prices)
Standardised Index Figure 4: Remittances and Birth Rates in Egypt 1969-2007 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50-2,00 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 )Remittances (1970 Prices Birth Rates
Table 2: Correlation Coefficients between Emigration, Education and Fertility in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey around 2000 Country Egypt Morocco Turkey Emigration x Fertility + 0.66-0.29-0.42 Education x Fertility - 0.85-0.45-0.84 Emigration x Education - 0.50 +0.26 / + 0.40 + 0.32 Source: Fargues 2006
Percentage of immigrant stocks Figure 4: Age patterns of male international migration Selected countries and periods 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Argentina 1948-52 US 2000Age at arrival US in 2005 the country Canada 2001 Spain 2001
Figure 5: Proportion of never-married men at the mean age at migration, by region and year (%) Source: http://w w w.un.org/esa/population/publications/wmd2008/main.html 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Arab states Sub- Saharan Africa Latin America and the Carribean South Asia
Number of children Migration Figure 6: Mean number of children ever-born to migrant men according to the stage of demographic transition Source: Author's calculation using UN age specific fertility patterns 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 Before migration After migration 2,0 1,0 0,0 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Pre-transition Transition 1 Transition 2 Post-transition
Table 4: Number of children ever-born to male migrants according to the stage of demographic transition Stage of demographic transition Transition 1 Transition 2 Pretransition Posttransition Children already born at the time of migration Children still to be born after migration 2,5 1,9 1,2 0,6 4,0 3,4 1,4 1,0 Total 6,5 5,3 2,6 1,6 Source: Author's calculation using UN age specific fertility patterns http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldfertility2007/worldfertilitypatterns%202007_updateddat a.xls
Average number of years of schooling Figure 7a: Migrants' level of education by generation and country of birth - United States 2001 17,0 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 India Egypt Algeria China Philippines Pakistan Lebanon Morocco Bangladesh Senegal Non-M igrants Mexico 5,0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year of birth
Average number of years of schooling Figure 7b: Migrants' level of education by generation and country of birth - Spain 2001 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 7,0 5,0 3,0 Mexico Non-Migrants Lebanon India Philippines Egypt China Bangladesh Algeria Pakistan Morocco Senegal 1,0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year of birth
Average number of years of schooling Figure 7c: Migrants' level of education by generation and country of residence - 2001 17,0 15,0 13,0 11,0 9,0 US* Canada Italy Spain* 7,0 5,0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year of birth
Index, base 100 in 1993 Index, base 100 in 1980 Average amount remitted per unit of human capital Morocco 1993 to 2005 Turkey 1980 to 2002 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 100 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Stock of emigrants Remittances (current$) Stock of human capital Stock of emigrants Remittances (current$) Stock of human capital
Graph 3: Percentage Non-Western in Western European Populations According to Ethnic Projections 2000-2050 25 England 20 15 Germany Netherlands Norway 10 Denmark 5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Source: Coleman, 2006
Age Group Graph 5: Population of the Netherlands by Origin and Age 1st January 2009 90 to 95 80 to 85 70 to 75 60 to 65 50 to 55 40 to 45 30 to 35 20 to 25 10 to 15 0 to 5 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Dutch background Non-western foreign background Source: Statistics Netherlands - http://statline.cbs.nl/statweb/default.aspx?la=en