The Complexity of International Migration Reviewed Hania Zlotnik Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations 1
SOME CAUSES OF MIGRATION S COMPLEXITY Who is a migrant? Move from one country to another Minimum time of stay in the new country Purpose of stay 2
140 120 MIGRATION FLOWS TO THE NETHERLANDS Thousands 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 All inflows All outflows 3
INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS CAN BE DECOMPOSED Inflows: Citizens (Return migration) Foreigners (Immigration) Outflows: Citizens (Emigration) Foreigners (Return migration) 4
MIGRATION FLOWS TO THE NETHERLANDS Thousands 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Inflow citizens Outflow citizens 5
120 100 MIGRATION FLOWS TO THE NETHERLANDS Thousands 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Inflow foreigners Outflow foreigners 6
THE ORIGIN OF FOREIGNERS Origins vary: MATTERS Level of development Cultural background Historical ties Income level 7
MIGRATION OUTFLOWS FROM THE 25 20 NETHERLANDS Thousands 15 10 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Outflows, developing Outflows, developed 8
MIGRANT STOCK Migrant stock: all foreign-born persons in a country More widely available data than on migrant flows It is not strictly comparable with data on flows, but indicates cumulative impact of migration 9
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS Worldwide: 191 million in 2005 Of which In developed countries: 115 million In developing countries: 75 million Consequently: 60 per cent are in developed countries 10
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS Worldwide: 191 million in 2005 Of which In high-income income developed: 91 million In high-income income developing: 21 million Consequently: 59 per cent are in high-income income countries 11
CONCENTRATION OF MIGRANTS In 2005, 75 % of all migrants live in 28 countries, of which: 11 high-income income developed countries 6 high-income income developing countries 2 upper middle-income income countries 4 lower middle-income income countries 4 low-income countries 12
CONCENTRATION OF MIGRANTS 20 % live in the United States 6 % live in the Russian Federation 5 % in the Ukraine 4 % in Germany 3 % in each: France, Saudi Arabia, Canada, India, United Kingdom 21% live in the European Union 13
CONCENTRATION OF MIGRANTS 20 % live in the United States 21% live in the European Union 7 % live in the GCC countries 14
Number of international migrants, 2005 15
ASYMMETRIC GROWTH BY INCOME GROUP 100 91 1990 2005 80 60 40 20 57 21 14 33 25 26 25 23 28 0 High, developed High, developing Upper-middle Lower-middle Low income 16
CONCENTRATION OF GROWTH Between 1990 and 2005, 75 % of the growth in the number of migrants occurred in 17 countries The United States gained 15 million Germany and Spain gained 4 million each GCC gained 4 million 17
Change in the number of international migrants, 1990-2005 18
CHANGE IN THE MIGRANT SHARE OF THE POPULATION BY INCOME GROUP 30 1990 2005 20 17 20 10 7 0 High, developed 10 High, developing 5 Upper-middle 4 Lower-middle 1 1 2 1 Low income 19
Number of migrants as percentage of the total population, 2005 20
MIGRANTS BY ORIGIN Estimates of the migrant stock are generally NOT available by origin New data permit a rough estimation of the proportions originating in different groups of countries 21
THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS IS ALMOST EQUALLY DIVIDED INTO THREE TYPES (Cumulated migrant stock -- Millions of persons) 14 62 53 North-South North-North South-South South-North 61 22
MIGRANTS HAVE OTHER CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPORTANCE Sex Age Educational attainment 23
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS Worldwide: 191 million in 2005 Of which Female migrants: 95 million Male migrants: 96 million Consequently: 49.6 per cent are female 24
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS Developed countries: 115 million Of which Female migrants: 60 million Male migrants: 55 million Consequently: 52.2 per cent are female 25
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS Developing countries: 75 million Of which Female migrants: 34 million Male migrants: 41 million Consequently: 45.5 per cent are female 26
NUMBER OF MIGRANTS Developing countries: 75 million Of which Female migrants: 34 million Male migrants: 41 million Consequently: 45.5 per cent are female 27
CHANGE IN NUMBER OF FEMALE MIGRANTS BY INCOME GROUP 60 46 1990 2005 40 29 20 6 9 13 14 13 12 15 13 0 High, developed High, developing Upper-middle Lower-middle Low income 28
CHANGE IN PERCENTAGE OF FEMALE MIGRANTS BY INCOME GROUP 50.1 50.8 39.3 39.8 52.5 52.9 51.7 52.9 60 46.9 47.8 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2005 29 High, developed High, developing Upper-middle Lower-middle Low income
NUMBER OF FEMALE MIGRANTS: 2005 30
MIGRANTS BY EDUCATION Focus on the highly-educated who are equated with the highly-skilled Educational attainment is correlated with age: look at a sub-group of migrants (those aged 25 or over) 31
MIGRANTS WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION AS PERCENTAGE OF THE INCREASE IN ALL MIGRANTS AGED 25 OR OVER, 1990-2000 100 91 100 80 80 60 46 47 47 54 40 30 20 0 OCDE USA Canada EU-15 UK France Germany Australia 32
TO DISENTANGLE THE COMPLEXITY OF MIGRATION Need more data Need more data on flows, even if not perfectly comparable among countries Need data on stocks about the foreign-born Need data on stocks classified by several characteristics: Sex Age Educational attainment Occupation 33
NEED TO UNDERSTAND RETURN Returns are more common than one would think There is a dearth of useful information on return migration or circulation What makes return successful? Is it related to length of stay abroad? 34
TO BE CONTINUED.. 35
HIGH-LEVEL DIALOGUE WEBSITE WWW.UNMIGRATION.ORG 36