Partisans Dug in on Budget, Health Care Impasse

OCTOBER 7, 2013 Is Debt Ceiling Fix Essential? 47% Yes, 39% No Partisans Dug in on Budget, Health Care Impasse FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS Michael Dimock Director Carroll Doherty Associate Director 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4372 Fax (202) 419-4399

Is Debt Ceiling Fix Essential? 47% Yes, 39% No Partisans Dug in on Budget, Health Care Impasse Nearly a week into the first government shutdown in more than 17 years, most Americans express frustration and concern about the situation. Yet on the core issue dividing Republicans and Democrats in Washington whether cuts or delays to the 2010 health care law should be part of any budget deal there is little support for compromise among members of either party. The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Oct. 3-6 among 1,000 adults, finds 44% say Republican leaders should give ground on their demand that any budget deal include cuts or delays to the 2010 health care law. Nearly as many (42%) say it is Obama who should give ground, by agreeing to changes in the health care law. Even when asked if the only way to end the shutdown soon is for their side to give ground on the health care issue, most are unwilling to back down. A majority of Democrats (58%) say it would be unacceptable for Obama to agree to cuts or Who Should Give Ground in Budget Disagreement? In shutdown disagreement Total Rep Dem delays in the Affordable Care Act, even if this is the only way to resolve the shutdown soon. Roughly the same share of Republicans (54%) say it would be unacceptable for GOP leaders to agree to any deal that does not include cuts or delays to Obamacare. Ind Among Rep/ Rep leaners Tea Party Not Tea % % % % % % Obama should agree to deal that includes changes in health care law 42 77 18 40 88 63 If only way to end shutdown is for Reps to drop health care changes, would this be Acceptable 14 20 11 13 13 21 Unacceptable 26 54 7 25 72 39 Don t know 2 3 * 2 3 3 Republicans should agree to deal w/ no health care changes 44 14 75 43 7 24 If only way to end shutdown is for Obama to agree to health care changes, would this be Acceptable 13 9 15 16 5 15 Unacceptable 29 4 58 24 2 8 Don t know 2 * 2 3 0 * Don t know 14 9 7 17 5 13 100 100 100 100 100 100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

2 Notably, Tea Party Republicans overwhelmingly oppose Republican leaders making concessions to resolve the impasse. Nearly nine-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party (88%) say Obama should agree to cuts or delays in the health care law and 72% think it would be unacceptable for GOP leaders to agree to a deal that does not include those changes, even if it is the only way to quickly end the shutdown. Among non-tea Party Republicans, 63% say Obama should agree to changes in the health care law, but only 39% feel it would be unacceptable for GOP leaders to drop their demand for health care changes. As other recent polls have shown, there is broad public support for a compromise on the government shutdown when explicit tradeoffs and concessions are not mentioned. Fully 61% say lawmakers who share their views about the government shutdown should be willing to make compromises, even if it results in a deal they disagree with; just 29% say lawmakers who share their views should stand by their principles, even if that means the shutdown lasts longer. Yet finding the middle ground on the issue of cuts or delays to the health care law is clearly more difficult. The survey also finds that Republicans are taking more blame for the shutdown than the Obama administration, but only by a slim margin. By 38% to 30%, more say that Republicans are to blame for the government shutdown than the Obama administration; 19% volunteer that both sides are equally to blame. Two weeks ago, about as many said they would blame Republicans (39%) as the Obama administration (36%) if the federal government shut down. More Blame Republicans than Obama for Shutdown More to blame for shutdown* Sept 19-22 % % Oct 3-6 Change Obama administration 36 30-6 Republicans 39 38-1 Both 17 19 +2 Neither/DK 8 13 +5 100 100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. * Sept. 19-22, 2013 survey asked about who would be more to blame. Polling in the early days of the 1995 government shutdown was much more lopsided: For example, a Nov. 1995 Gallup/CNN/USA TODAY survey found more blaming Republicans in Congress than Bill Clinton by a 22-point margin (47% vs. 25%). More disapprove than approve of the way that all sides Barack Obama, Democratic leaders and Republican leaders are handling the negotiations over the shutdown. However, the percentage disapproving of Republican leaders handling of the situation (69% disapprove) is higher than for Democratic leaders (58%) or Obama (50%).

3 Four-in-Ten Say Nation Can Go Past Debt Limit Deadline With the nation rapidly approaching its borrowing limit possibly as soon as Oct. 17, according to Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew 47% say it is absolutely essential that the federal debt limit be raised to avoid an economic crisis. Yet roughly four-in-ten (39%) are skeptical saying the country can go past the deadline for raising the debt limit without major economic problems. Opinion about raising the debt limit was more evenly divided in July 2011, a few weeks before the last major showdown over the issue. At that time, 40% viewed a debt limit increase as absolutely essential in order to avoid a crisis, while nearly as many (39%) said it would not pose major problems. Partisan differences over raising the debt limit By 47%-39%, More See Debt Limit Hike as Essential are similar to two years ago: 62% of Democrats think it is absolutely essential to increase the debt limit, compared with 45% of independents and 36% of Republicans. Raising debt limit by deadline Absolutely essential to avoid crisis Can go past deadline w/out major problems Republicans and GOP leaners who do not agree with the Tea Party (40%) are much more likely than Tea Party Republicans (23%) to view a debt limit hike as absolutely essential. DK % % % Total 47 39 15=100 College grad+ 52 32 16=100 Some college 47 41 12=100 HS or less 43 41 16=100 Republican 36 54 11=100 Democrat 62 28 10=100 Independent 45 38 17=100 Among Reps/ Rep-leaners Tea Party 23 64 13=100 Non-Tea Party 40 47 14=100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

4 Views of Impact of Government Shutdown Most Americans say they are very (48%) or somewhat (29%) concerned about the effect of the government shutdown on the economy. Only about a quarter (22%) say they are not too concerned or not concerned at all about the economic impact of the shutdown. Majorities of Democrats, people with lower family incomes (less than $30,000), women and older Americans (65 and older) say they are very concerned about the economic effects of the shutdown. Far fewer Republicans, people with higher incomes, men and young people (under 30) express a great deal of concern. Among Tea Party Republicans, a plurality (45%) expresses little or no concern about the economic effects of a government shutdown. A plurality of non-tea Party Republicans say they are very concerned about the shutdown s economic impact. Wide Partisan Gap in Concern over Shutdown s Economic Impact Concerned about shutdown s econ impact Very Somewhat Not too/ at all DK % % % % Total 48 29 22 1=100 Men 41 28 30 1=100 Women 55 29 15 *=100 18-29 38 37 24 1=100 30-49 48 29 23 *=100 50-64 52 25 22 1=100 65+ 55 23 23 0=100 Family income $75,000 or more 47 29 23 1=100 $30,000-$75,000 43 31 26 *=100 Less than $30,000 60 26 14 1=100 Republican 39 31 30 0=100 Democrat 59 31 10 0=100 Independent 45 28 26 *=100 Among Reps/ Rep-leaners Tea Party 25 30 45 0=100 Non-Tea Party 45 29 26 0=100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding.

5 While there are sizable partisan and demographic gaps in concern over the economic effects of the shutdown, there are smaller differences in the percentages saying they have been personally inconvenienced by the federal government shutdown. Overall, 28% say they or a member of their family have been inconvenienced, which is far higher than the percentage saying this during the last shutdown of the federal government, in January 1996 (16%). Personally Inconvenienced by the Government Shutdown? Jan 1996 % % Oct 2013 Change NET Inconvenienced 16 28 +12 Major 7 15 +8 Minor/DK 9 13 +4 Not inconvenienced 84 71-13 Don t know * 1 100 100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Today, more people across most partisan and demographic categories say they have been personally inconvenienced by the shutdown of the federal government. About as many Republicans (32%) as Democrats or independents (28% each) say they or a family member have been personally inconvenienced by the shutdown. Shutdown s Personal Impact Personally inconvenienced by shutdown Oct 2013 % Total 28 18-29 27 30-49 33 50-64 30 65+ 17 Republican 32 Democrat 28 Independent 28 Among Rep/ Rep leaners Tea Party 28 Non-Tea Party 28 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013.

6 One-in-Ten Have Contacted Officials or Signed a Petition About one-in-ten Americans (13%) say they have contacted a public official or signed a petition to express their opinion about the shutdown, while 87% say they have not. Public officials are hearing from those with many points of view about the government shutdown. About as many Republicans (15%) as Democrats (13%) or independents (14%) say they have expressed their opinion to a government official or signed a petition. But among Tea Party Republicans, 24% have done so, double the percentage among non-tea Party Republicans (11%) Those who are very concerned about the effect of the shutdown on the U.S. economy are twice as likely as those who are less concerned to say they have contacted a public official or have signed a petition to express their views; 18% of those who are very concerned have done so, compared with 9% of those who are less concerned. Similarly, those who say they or a family member have been personally inconvenienced by the shutdown are more likely than those who have not been inconvenienced to say they have contacted a public official or signed a petition (19% vs. 11%). Nearly a Quarter of Tea Party Reps Have Voiced Shutdown Views Contacted official or signed a petition to express opinion of shutdown? Yes No DK % % % All adults 13 87 0=100 Republican (22%) 15 85 0=100 Democrat (29%) 13 87 0=100 Independent (42%) 14 86 0=100 Among Reps/Rep leaners Tea Party (35%) 24 76 0=100 Non-Tea Party (62%) 11 89 0=100 What should lawmakers who share your views do? Stand by principles, even if shutdown continues (29%) 18 82 0=100 Compromise, even on budget you disagree with (61%) 12 88 0=100 Concern about shutdown s effect on U.S. economy Very concerned (48%) 18 82 0=100 Less concerned (51%) 9 91 0=100 Have you or a family member been personally inconvenienced by the shutdown? Yes (28%) 19 81 0=100 No (71%) 11 89 0=100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. Yet, public officials are also hearing from those who do not want lawmakers who share their views to compromise; 18% of those who want lawmakers to stand by their principles even if it means the government shutdown continues say they have contacted a public official or have signed a petition, compared with 12% of those who want lawmakers to compromise.

7 Few Republicans Say GOP Leaders Give Tea Party Too Much Attention Overall, 35% of the public thinks that Republican leaders in Congress are paying too much attention to the ideas and the positions of the Tea Party compared with somewhat fewer (26%) who say they are paying too little attention; 19% say Republican leaders are paying the right amount of attention to the Tea Party and another 19% do not offer an opinion. This is a modest shift from August of 2011 following that year s standoff over the debt ceiling when as many said Republican leaders were paying too little attention to the Tea Party (31%) as too much (30%). Are GOP Leaders Paying Too Much Attention to the Tea Party? Attention Rep leaders paying to Tea Party Aug 2011 % % Oct 2013 Change Too much 30 35 +5 Too little 31 26-5 Right amount 20 19-1 Don t know 20 19-1 100 100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. By more than two-to-one, more Democrats say Republican leaders are paying too much attention to the Tea Party than too little (58%- 25%). The percentage of Democrats saying the GOP is paying too much attention to the Tea Party is up 11 points since 2011. By contrast, just 18% of Republicans believe their leaders are paying too much attention to the Tea Party; that is up slightly from 13% two years ago. Instead, most Republicans feel the party s leaders are either paying the right amount (40%) or too little (24%) attention to the positions of the Tea Party. Few Republicans Say Tea Party Gets Too Much Attention Attention Rep leaders paying to Tea Party Too much Too little Right amount DK % % % % Total 35 26 19 19=100 Republican 18 24 40 18=100 Democrat 58 25 7 9=100 Independent 32 28 18 22=100 Among Rep/ Rep leaners Tea Party 6 40 41 13=100 Non-Tea Party 22 21 34 22=100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Oct. 3-6, 2013. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. To be sure, the share of Republicans who think the Tea Party gets too little attention has fallen: in 2011 37% thought the Tea Party did not receive enough attention from party leaders while just 24% say that today. Even among Tea Party Republicans this sentiment has waned: in 2011 55% of Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party said their movement got too little attention, compared with 40% today.

8 Yet concern within the GOP that the Tea Party has too much influence remains limited: even among Republicans and Republican leaners who do not agree with the Tea Party movement, more than half say either that the GOP is paying the right amount of attention (34%) to the ideas of the Tea Party or too little (21%). Just 22% of non-tea Party Republicans say the movement receives too much attention from the Republican Party.

9 About the Survey The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted October 3-6, 2013, among a national sample of 1,000 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (500 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 500 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 250 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: http://people-press.org/methodology/. The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the 2011 Census Bureau's American Community Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2012 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the unweighted sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: Group Unweighted sample size Plus or minus Total sample 1,000 3.7 percentage points Republicans 227 7.8 percentage points Democrats 299 6.8 percentage points Independents 418 5.8 percentage points Among Rep/Rep Lean Tea Party 165 9.2 percentage points Non-Tea Party 224 7.9 percentage points Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. Pew Research Center, 2013

10 PEW RESEARCH CENTER October 3-6, 2013 OMNIBUS FINAL TOPLINE N=1,000 ASK ALL: PEW.1 As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very, fairly, not too, or not at all. First, [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] [IF NECESSARY Did you follow [ITEM] very, fairly, not too or not at all? ] Very Fairly Not too Not at all a. The shutdown of the federal government October 3-6, 2013 43 30 15 11 * September 25-29, 2013: Congress working on a budget agreement to avoid a government shutdown at the end of September 36 25 16 23 * September 19-22, 2013 25 24 21 30 1 TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: March 14-17, 2013: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt 24 26 20 29 1 March 7-10, 2013: Automatic spending cuts that began on March 1st 31 26 18 25 1 February 21-24, 2013: News about automatic cuts to federal spending that will take effect next week, unless the president and Congress act 25 26 19 29 1 January 24-27, 2013: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt 23 28 19 29 1 December 13-16, 2012: The debate in Washington over automatic spending cuts and tax increases that would take effect in January unless the President and Congress act 37 28 16 18 1 December 6-9, 2012 37 26 17 20 1 November 29-December 2, 2012 40 26 14 20 1 November 15-18, 2012 33 24 16 25 1 November 8-11, 2012 38 20 20 20 * July 19-22, 2012 23 21 22 33 1 November 3-6, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt 24 31 21 24 1 October 27-30, 2011 25 28 21 25 1 October 13-16, 2011: The debate in Washington over jobs and the deficit 29 32 15 24 1 September 29-October 2, 2011: Congress working on a budget extension to avoid a government shutdown 31 26 20 22 * September 22-25, 2011: The debate in Washington over jobs and the deficit 35 26 19 19 1 September 15-18, 2011: The debate in Washington over President Obama s jobs legislation 31 28 19 21 2 September 8-11, 2011: Barack Obama s speech about jobs to a joint session of Congress 28 18 17 36 1 (VOL.) DK/Ref

11 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.) DK/Ref July 28-31, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt 41 27 15 17 * July 21-24, 2011 38 28 17 17 * July 14-17, 2011 34 29 18 19 * June 16-19, 2011: Debate in Washington over whether to raise the federal debt limit 24 26 22 28 * June 2-5, 2011 23 24 22 31 * May 26-29, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit 25 26 20 29 * May 12-15, 2011 21 26 24 28 1 May 5-8, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit and national debt 29 28 22 20 1 April 21-25, 2011 30 31 18 21 * April 14-17, 2011 36 27 18 19 1 April 7-10, 2011: The threat of a government shutdown because of budget disagreements in Washington 47 26 15 12 * March 31-April 3, 2011: Discussions in Washington about how to address the federal budget deficit 30 27 21 22 * March 17-20, 2011 24 25 24 26 1 March 3-6, 2011 26 29 19 26 1 February 17-20, 2011 27 30 17 25 1 December 2-5, 2010 35 25 21 17 2 December 2-5, 2010: The debate in Washington over the federal income tax cuts passed when George W. Bush was president 39 26 17 17 1 November 11-14, 2010: Proposals made by leaders of the federal budget deficit commission 15 21 21 41 1 September 16-19, 2010: The debate in Washington over competing Democratic and Republican tax plans 21 24 21 34 * September 9-12, 2010 16 19 22 42 1 May 8-11, 2009: The debate in Washington over the federal budget 22 28 19 31 * March 27-30, 2009: Debate over Barack Obama s budget proposal 28 34 18 19 1 March 6-9, 2009: Obama proposing a $630 billion fund for overhauling health care 41 32 13 14 * February 27-March 2, 2009: Barack Obama s budget proposal for next year that raises taxes on wealthy Americans and increases spending on health care, education and other programs 47 34 9 10 * February 27-March 2, 2009: The Obama administration s plan to help homeowners facing foreclosure which could cost as much as $275 billion 31 36 19 13 1 February 20-23, 2009: The $780 billion economic stimulus legislation approved by Congress and signed into law by President Obama 41 37 14 8 * February 13-16, 2009: Congress passing Barack Obama s economic stimulus plan 50 32 13 5 *

12 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.) DK/Ref February 6-9, 2009: The debate in Congress over Barack Obama s economic stimulus plan 41 33 15 11 * January 30-February 2, 2009 36 29 22 13 * January 16-19, 2009: Debate in Washington over what the government should do about the nation s economic problems 35 33 17 15 * January 9-12, 2009: Projections of a record high federal budget deficit this year 35 30 19 16 * December 19-22, 2008: The Bush administration s plan to provide billions in emergency loans to U.S. automakers 37 33 16 13 1 December 12-15, 2008: The debate over a government bailout for the U.S. auto industry 40 33 18 9 * December 5-8, 2008: The debate in Congress over a government bailout for the U.S. auto industry 34 38 17 11 * November 21-24, 2008 41 26 17 15 1 October 3-6, 2008: The debate in Washington over a plan to use government funds to stabilize financial markets 62 26 7 5 * September 26-29, 2008 60 22 10 8 * September 12-15, 2008: The federal government taking control of the mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 28 35 19 17 1 March 20-24, 2008: The buyout of Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns 21 26 21 32 * February 8-11, 2008: President Bush and Congress agreeing on an economic Stimulus plan 22 33 23 21 1 January 25-28, 2008 24 36 19 21 * February, 2003: George W. Bush s tax cut and economic stimulus plan 26 33 23 16 2 February, 2003 26 33 23 16 2 January, 2003 28 34 21 15 2 February, 2002: The debate in Congress over George W. Bush s budget and tax cut plan 17 31 28 23 1 April, 2001 24 38 20 18 * February, 2001: George W. Bush s tax cut plan 31 35 19 14 1 August, 1997: The debate in Washington about the federal budget 14 34 25 26 1 May, 1997 16 38 23 22 1 February, 1997 19 28 22 29 2 March, 1996 24 35 23 18 * January, 1996 32 42 17 9 * September, 1995 20 35 27 18 * August, 1995: The debate in Congress over the federal budget 18 34 27 20 1 February, 1995: The debate in Congress over the Balanced Budget Amendment 12 31 28 28 1 August, 1993: The debate in Congress over Bill Clinton s budget bill 30 36 21 13 * June, 1993 12 38 31 18 1 February, 1993: Bill Clinton s economic plan 49 36 10 5 *

13 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.) DK/Ref September, 1992 (RV): George Bush s plan to improve the economy by cutting government spending and cutting taxes 28 44 18 9 1 November, 1990: Congressional and administration efforts to reach a budget deficit agreement 34 33 20 11 2 October, 1990: Attempts by Congress and the administration to find ways to reduce the budget deficit 34 37 17 12 * August, 1989: Passage of a bill to bailout ailing savings and loan institutions 26 30 20 23 1 b. News about health insurance exchanges opening around the country as part of the 2010 health care law October 3-6, 2013 33 24 22 20 1 August 29-September 1, 2013: News about parts of the health care law that are about to take effect 23 25 21 30 * July 18-21, 2013 25 25 19 30 * June 28-July 1, 2012: The Supreme Court decision on the 2010 health care law 45 21 14 19 * March 29-April 1, 2012: Supreme Court hearings about the 2010 health care reform law 29 27 17 27 * November 17-20, 2011: The U.S. Supreme Court agreeing to hear legal challenges to last year s health care reform law 18 24 24 33 1 February 3-6, 2011: A federal judge ruling that part of the new health care law is unconstitutional 25 28 19 28 1 January 20-23, 2011: News about Republican efforts to repeal last year s health care law 29 29 20 21 1 December 16-19, 2010: A federal judge ruling that parts of the new health care law are unconstitutional 28 24 17 30 1 September 23-26, 2010: News about portions of this year s health care reform law beginning to take effect 37 31 17 14 1 April 16-19, 2010: News about the new health care reform law 40 30 16 14 * April 9-12, 2010 46 27 15 12 * April 1-5, 2010 42 27 14 16 * March 26-29, 2010: Debate over health care reform 49 29 12 10 * March 19-22, 2010 51 24 11 14 * March 12-15, 2010 40 31 16 13 * March 5-8, 2010 42 27 17 15 * February 26-March 1, 2010 29 29 19 22 * February 19-22, 2010 33 28 19 19 * January 29-February 1, 2010 39 27 16 17 * January 22-25, 2010 41 32 15 11 * January 15-18, 2010 37 27 19 18 * January 8-11, 2010 39 26 20 15 * December 18-21, 2009 42 27 16 14 * December 11-14, 2009 42 30 15 14 * December 4-7, 2009 42 28 15 14 1 November 20-23, 2009 42 29 14 15 *

14 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.) DK/Ref November 13-16, 2009 38 26 17 17 1 November 6-9, 2009 35 28 15 22 1 October 30-November 2, 2009 32 26 19 23 * October 23-26, 2009 40 27 16 17 1 October 16-19, 2009 36 28 15 21 * October 9-12, 2009 37 29 14 19 1 October 2-5, 2009 39 29 16 16 * September 25-28, 2009 45 31 12 12 0 September 18-21, 2009 44 26 19 11 * September 11-14, 2009 44 27 14 15 * September 3-6, 2009 40 26 16 17 0 August 28-31, 2009 40 28 17 14 1 August 21-24, 2009 49 24 12 15 1 August 14-17, 2009 39 31 15 15 1 August 7-10, 2009: Debate in Washington over health care reform 40 27 17 15 1 July 31-August 3, 2009 47 26 14 13 1 July 24-27, 2009 44 28 15 13 * July 17-20, 2009 33 31 13 21 2 July 10-13, 2009 24 29 20 27 * June 26-29, 2009 29 26 20 25 1 June 19-22, 2009 28 28 20 23 * June 12-15, 2009 29 26 18 26 * May 15-18, 2009: Debate over Barack Obama s health care plans 25 30 20 24 * March 6-9, 2009: Obama proposing a $630 billion fund for overhauling health care 41 32 13 14 * TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: September, 1994: The Clinton administration s health care reform proposals 32 41 18 9 * June, 1994 34 40 19 7 * May, 1994 37 37 16 9 1 January, 1994 38 38 15 9 * Early January, 1994 40 40 14 6 * December, 1993 45 35 12 7 1 October, 1993 44 32 17 6 1 September, 1993 49 34 11 6 * August, 1993: Reports about the White House task force on health care reform headed by Hillary Clinton 27 32 25 15 1 June, 1993 28 38 19 15 * May, 1993 30 30 25 14 1 c. Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy October 3-6, 2013 34 30 19 16 1 September 25-29, 2013 35 30 16 18 * September 19-22, 2013 28 33 20 19 1 September 12-15, 2013 28 34 17 20 * August 1-4, 2013 28 35 19 17 1 July 18-21, 2013 28 29 20 23 1 June 20-23, 2013 28 30 19 22 1 June 13-16, 2013 30 32 15 22 * June 6-9, 2013 33 31 15 21 * May 16-19, 2013 30 31 20 19 * May 9-12, 2013 28 30 21 20 1 March 28-31, 2013 30 30 17 22 1 March 7-10, 2013 35 30 16 19 *

15 PEW.1 CONTINUED Very Fairly Not too Not at all (VOL.) DK/Ref January 31-February 3, 2013 33 33 16 16 1 January 17-20, 2013 36 32 15 16 * January 3-6, 2013 34 32 18 16 1 December 6-9, 2012 38 30 16 14 1 November 8-11, 2012 41 31 15 12 1 November 1-4, 2012 38 30 16 14 1 October 25-28, 2012 44 30 14 11 1 October 18-21, 2012 39 36 12 12 1 October 12-14, 2012 42 28 14 15 1 October 4-7, 2012 40 29 13 17 * September 27-30, 2012 34 37 13 15 1 September 20-23, 2012 36 32 17 15 * September 13-16, 2012 38 32 17 12 1 September 7-9, 2012 36 31 17 15 2 August 31-September 3, 2012 33 31 20 16 1 August 23-26, 2012 38 30 15 16 1 August 16-19, 2012 33 32 16 19 * August 9-12, 2012 30 31 20 18 1 August 2-5, 2012 33 29 20 17 1 July 26-29, 2012 32 30 20 19 * July 19-22, 2012 39 29 16 16 * July 12-15, 2012 32 33 18 17 1 July 5-8, 2012 34 28 18 19 1 June 28-July 1, 2012 38 28 15 18 1 June 21-24, 2012 33 32 17 17 * June 14-17, 2012 39 28 15 17 * June 7-10, 2012 35 32 15 18 * May 31-June 3, 2012 37 34 13 14 1 May 24-27, 2012 33 31 19 16 1 May 17-20, 2012 35 30 16 19 * May 10-13, 2012 40 26 16 17 * May 3-6, 2012 38 29 13 20 * April 26-29, 2012 34 32 17 16 1 April 19-22, 2012 35 35 13 14 2 April 12-15, 2012 39 28 16 17 1 April 5-8, 2012 37 31 16 16 1 March 29-April 1, 2012 34 33 15 18 1 March 22-25, 2012 36 29 16 18 1 March 15-18, 2012 40 35 11 14 1 March 8-11, 2012 37 32 14 17 * March 1-4, 2012 41 27 15 17 1 February 23-26, 2012 37 33 14 15 1 February 16-20, 2012 33 32 16 17 1 February 9-12, 2012 42 30 14 13 1 February 2-5, 2012 38 32 16 13 1 January 26-29, 2012 35 31 16 19 * January 19-22, 2012 35 30 16 19 1 January 12-15, 2012 33 32 14 20 1 January 5-8, 2012 39 31 15 15 * SEE TREND FOR PREVIOUS YEARS: http:///files/2013/01/nii-economy-trend.pdf NO QUESTION PEW.2

16 ASK ALL: PEW.3 Who do you think is more to blame for the federal government shutdown -- [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] or [ITEM]? Oct 3-6 Sep 19-22 2013 2013 1 38 Republicans 39 30 The Obama administration 36 19 Both equally (VOL.) 17 2 Neither (VOL.) 2 11 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 6 TRENDS FOR COMPARISON: Monday night, the federal government was partially shut down when President Clinton and the Republican leaders in Congress could not agree on a resolution to keep the government running while they debated the federal budget. Who do you blame more for the partial government shutdown -- the Republicans in Congress or Bill Clinton? CBS News Nov 19 1995 51 Republicans in Congress 28 Clinton 15 Both equally (VOL.) 6 Don t know/refused (VOL.) Overall, who do you blame more for the recent shutdown of the federal government President Clinton or the Republican leaders in Congress? Gallup/CNN/USA Today Nov 17-18 1995 25 Clinton 47 Republican leaders 21 Both equally (VOL.) 1 Neither (VOL.) 6 Don t know/refused (VOL.) NO QUESTION PEW.4 ASK ALL: PEW.5 Do you approve or disapprove of the way [INSERT ITEM; RANDOMIZE] is handling negotiations over the government shutdown? (VOL.) Approve Disapprove DK/Ref a. Barack Obama Oct 3-6, 2013 38 50 12 b. Republican leaders in Congress Oct 3-6, 2013 19 69 12 c. Democratic leaders in Congress Oct 3-6, 2013 29 58 13 NO QUESTIONS PEW.6-PEW.7 1 In September the question was worded If the federal government shuts down because Republicans and the Obama administration can t agree on a budget, who do you think would be more to blame? It was asked on the same survey as the National Journal s Congressional Connection poll, also released Sept. 23, 2013.

17 ASK ALL: PEW.8 In the current debate over the government shutdown, what would you like lawmakers who share your views to do? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] --- Gallup --- Oct 3-6 Sep 19-22 Mar 30-Apr 3 Feb Aug 2013 2013 2 2011 3 2011 4 1995 5 Should they stand by their principles, even if 29 that means the government shutdown continues 33 36 32 35 [OR] Should they be more willing to compromise, even 61 if that means they reach a deal you disagree with 57 55 60 60 10 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 10 10 8 5 TREND FOR COMPARISON: How much, if anything, have you heard about the possibility that the federal government might go into default if Republicans and the Obama administration can t agree on a plan to raise the federal debt limit by August second? What would you like lawmakers who share your views on this issue to do? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Jul 20-24 2011 Should they stand by their principles, even 23 if that means the government goes into default [OR] Should they be more willing to compromise, even if 68 that means they strike a deal you disagree with 8 Don t know/refused (VOL.) ASK ALL: PEW.9 How concerned, if at all, are you about the government shutdown s effect on the U.S. economy? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned? Oct 3-6 2013 48 Very concerned 29 Somewhat concerned 14 Not too concerned 9 Not at all concerned 1 Don t know/refused (VOL.) NO QUESTIONS PEW.10-PEW.11 2 3 4 5 In Sept. 2013 the question was worded If there is not a budget agreement by the end of September the federal government will have to shut down many of its operations until a budget is passed. What would you like lawmakers who share your views on this issue to do? Should they stand by their principles, even if that means the government shuts down, or should they be more willing to compromise, even if that means they pass a budget you disagree with? In April 2011, the question was worded: If there is not a budget agreement by the end of next week the federal government will have to shut down nonessential services until a budget is passed. What would you like lawmakers who share your views on this issue to do? Should they stand by their principles, even if that means the government shuts down, or should they be more willing to compromise, even if that means they pass a budget you disagree with? In February 2011, the question was worded: If the Republicans in Congress and President Obama do not agree on federal spending goals by March 4, the federal government will have to shut down all of its nonessential services until a budget is passed. What would you like the people in government who represent your views on the budget to do in this situation? Should they hold out for the basic budget plan they want, even if that means the government shuts down, or should they agree to a compromise budget plan, even if that means they pass a budget you disagree with? In August 1995 the question was worded: If the Republicans in Congress and President Clinton do not agree on federal spending goals this fall, the federal government will have to shut down all of its nonessential services until a budget is passed. How would you like the people in government who represent your point of view toward the budget to act in this situation should they stand by their principles throughout the debate, even if that means the government shuts down, or should they be more willing to compromise in the debate, even if that means they pass a budget you disagree with?

18 ASK ALL: PEW.12 Have you or a member of your family been personally inconvenienced by the shutdown of the federal government? [ASK IF YES : Was it a major inconvenience or a minor inconvenience? ] Oct 3-6 Jan 2013 1996 28 NET Inconvenienced 16 15 Yes, major 7 13 Yes, minor/dk 9 71 No, not inconvenienced 84 1 Don t know/refused (VOL.) * ASK ALL: PEW.13 Have you contacted a public official or signed a petition to express your opinion about the shutdown, or not? Oct 3-6 2013 13 Yes 87 No 0 Don t know/refused (VOL.) NO QUESTION PEW.14 ASK ALL: PEW.15 As you may know, the main point of disagreement in the government shutdown is over whether changes to the 2010 health care law should be included in a budget deal. [RANDOMIZE: Obama has said any budget deal must NOT include cuts or delays to the health care law because they are separate issues. / Republican leaders have said that any budget deal must include cuts or delays to the health care law because the law is bad for the country.] Who do you think should give ground in this disagreement? [RANDOMIZE IN SAME ORDER] IF OBAMA SHOULD GIVE GROUND (PEW.15=1) [N=425]: PEW.16 If the only way to end the shutdown soon is for Republican leaders to agree to a bill without cuts or delays to the health care law, would this be acceptable or unacceptable to you IF REPUBLICANS SHOULD GIVE GROUND (PEW.15=2) [N=446]: PEW.17 If the only way to end the shutdown soon is for Obama to agree to a bill that includes cuts or delays to the health care law, would this be acceptable or unacceptable to you? BASED ON TOTAL: Oct 3-6 2013 42 Should Obama agree to a bill that INCLUDES cuts or delays to the health care law 14 Acceptable if Republicans agree to bill without cuts or delays 26 Unacceptable if Republicans agree to bill without cuts or delays 2 Don t know/refused (VOL.) [OR] 44 Should Republican leaders agree to a bill WITHOUT cuts or delays to the health care law 13 Acceptable if Obama agrees to bill with cuts or delays 29 Unacceptable if Obama agrees to bill with cuts or delays 2 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 14 Don t know/refused (VOL.)

19 ASK ALL: PEW.18 As you may know, the deadline to raise the nation s debt limit is also approaching, as soon as October 17th. From what you ve read and heard, do you think [INSERT; RANDOMIZE], or do you think [INSERT; RANDOMIZE]? Oct 3-6 Jul 15-17 2013 2011 6 It is absolutely essential that the federal 47 debt limit be raised to avoid an economic crisis 40 [OR] The country can go past the deadline for raising 39 the debt limit without major economic problems 39 15 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 21 ASK ALL: PEW.19 And all in all, are Republican leaders in Congress paying too much attention, too little attention, or the right amount of attention to the ideas and positions of the Tea Party? Oct 3-6 Aug 17-21 Mar 30-Apr 3 Nov 4-7 2013 2011 2011 2010 35 Too much 30 27 22 26 Too little 31 32 28 19 Right amount 20 23 25 19 Don t know/refused (VOL.) 20 19 25 6 In July 2011, the question was worded From what you ve read and heard, do you think it is absolutely essential that the federal debt limit be raised by August 2 nd to avoid an economic crisis, or do you think the country can go past the August 2 nd date for when the government reaches its debt limit without major economic problems?