Contents: The History of the BSR security The new security environment Main actors of the BSR Nordic-Baltic security relations The Way Ahead

Contents: The History of the BSR security The new security environment Main actors of the BSR Nordic-Baltic security relations The Way Ahead

Northern Europe Baltic Sea region Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe

The History of the Baltic Sea Region security (A story of stability)

The Timeline of BSR security 1945 1989 the Cold War and the Northern Balance. 1990-1994 dismantling the Northern Balance Baltic states reasserting independence Removal of Russian troops from Eastern Europe 1995-2001 security dilemma revisited The Cold War between Russia and 3Bs Search for alternative security arrangements 2002-2004 security regime redefined NATO-Russia rapprochement and war on terrorism 3Bs accession to NATO

The Northern Balance

The New Security Environment of the Baltic Sea Region (An island of stability in the ocean of chaos)

Defining Moments of the New Strategic Era End of the Cold War Balkanization vs. Baltification 9/11: threats redefined War on terrorism The double enlargement

NATO after Prague summit: The footprint of 9/11 New NATO for a new era: - New members (19 26) - New missions (collective defence crisis response) - New structure (20 HQs 11 HQs) - New capabilities (NATO Response Force) Baltic states joined a different Alliance than they applied to join in 1994!

Baltic states motives to join NATO: NATO EUROPE 1949: Norway Finland Estonia Keep ep Russians out Sweden Latvia Denmark Russia Irelandout, Germans down, Lithuania Americans Americans in Belarus U.K. Neth. Belgium Lux. France Switz. Germany Czech Austria Poland Slovakia Hungary Ukraine Moldova Italy Slovenia Croatia Bosnia Yugoslavia Romania Portugal Bulgaria Spain Macedonia Albania Greece Turkey Cyprus Frontiers of F d 10

NATO that Baltic states has joined: Finland NATO EUROPE 2004: Estonia Russians not in, and not Sweden out, Germans Latvia up, Denmark Ireland Lithuania Americans on the way out Belarus Norway Russia U.K. Neth. Belgium Lux. France Switz. Germany Czech Austria Poland Slovakia Hungary Ukraine Moldova Italy Slovenia Croatia Bosnia Yugoslavia Romania Portugal Bulgaria Spain Macedonia Albania Greece Turkey Cyprus Frontiers of Freedom.11

Europe not free The Borderlands Europe not whole Europe not at peace Europe in danger The Balkans The Caucasus The Middle East

Regional Threats (official Lithuanian assessment) Industrial accidents, natural calamities, ecological disasters Activities of foreign intelligence agencies Uncontrolled migration Likelihood Instability spillover International terrorism Demonstrations, provocations, threat to use force Weapons of Mass Destruction Major armed conflict Danger to survival of the State Relatively soft regional environment but

difficult global environment - military force is used more often

Main actors of the Baltic Sea Region (Who is the Boss?)

Main actors of the BSR The United States The U.S. interests: Maintaining stable and secure Northern Europe Containing Russia s expansionism The U.S. motives: Strategic - maintaining faithful allies in the BSR Emotional restituting justice Hidden agenda - slowing down the ESDP Tools NATO enlargement NEI/e-PINE, NB8+1 War on terrorism together with Russia

Main actors of the BSR Russia Russian interests: Recovering economy Retaining influence over the Baltic states Russian motives: Strategic access to the Baltic sea, rapprochement with the West Emotional just can t let go Hidden agenda disrupting NATO and EU from inside Tools: Border treaties, minorities, Kaliningrad transit Diplomatic Cold war Special ties with Germany and France War on terrorism together with the US

Main actors of the BSR The Nordic 5 The Nordic interests: Stable and secure environment (internal & external) The Nordic motives: Strategic maintaining regional stability and cohesiveness of the Norden identity Emotional humanitarian concerns Hidden agenda? Tools: NATO and/or EU membership Regionalisation of agenda (ND, NEI, CBSS) Internationalisation of threats

Main actors of the BSR The Baltic 3 The Baltic interest: Undisputable independence (even at the risk of secure environment) The Baltic motives: Strategic outweigh overwhelming Russian power Emotional shaking off Soviet legacy Hidden agenda keeping Russia out, U.S. in, France and Germany down Tools: NATO and EU membership Strategic partnership with the US Pioneering Eastern Agenda

Main actors of the BSR Poland Polish interests: Long term security in and around the region International status of a great power Polish motives: Strategic asserting regional leadership Emotional shaking off historical traumas vis a vis Germany and Russia Hidden agenda disrupting Paris-Berlin- Moscow axis with the assistance of the U.S. Tools: NATO and EU membership Special relationship with the U.S.

Main actors of the BSR Germany German interest: Regional center of power status German motives: Strategic anchoring 5N and 3B to the Old Europe Emotional rudimental sentiments of domination? Hidden agenda strengthening anti-american axis Paris-Berlin-Moscow Tools: The flirt with Russia Regionalizing and desecuritizing BSR agenda through EU s ND.

The New geostrategic balance in BSR: the defining moments U.S.-NATO-EU-Russia in search for delicate balance U.S.- NATO Common war on terrorism? The transatlantic link EU Counterbalance to the US? Russia

Nordic-Baltic Security Relations (Why cooperate?)

Imperatives of NB8 cooperation Geography and size (32 millions compared with Poland s 38 millions) Common neighbors Russia, Belarus Shared values, culture and mentality Shared interest in the US presence inside and outside the region Shared interest in stable and democratic European borderlands Shared interest in achieving greater political weight in international politics

Overlapping institutions BALTSEA Belgium Canada France Switzerland UK Poland Germany Denmark Iceland Norway Finnland Sweden Lithuania Latvia Estonia NB8 CBSS; ND EU Russia USA E-PINE, NB8+1

NB8 LTU EST LAT DEN SWE FIN ICE NOR Overlapping security policy agendas NATO ESDP Iraq ISAF Russia Kaliningrad Minorities Minorities Nuclear waste Nuclear waste Territorial sea

An emerging Nordic-Baltic security identity? Northerness of mentality Peace culture Humanism and tolerance Euroskepticism Atlanticism

The Way Ahead: Searching for Security in Insecure World (Is Baltic Sea region security question still relevant?)

Consequences of the New World Order Changing military-strategic culture: Obsolete Armed Forces Role in Homeland defence Defence diplomacy Armed Forces as a foreign policy instrument Going (back) to expeditionary warfare Legitimacy of preventive strikes Public Image - Soldier no longer a Hero Undermined importance of international law and UN mandate

Factors that will shape the future security agenda (of the BSR) Unilateralist trends of the U.S. foreign policy and strength of transatlantic link The pace of militarisation of the EU and Europeanisation effects on the New Europe Success/failure of Russian transformation Dynamics in the Eastern Borderlands The Unknown Unkowns

Conclusions History of the BSR is a history of stability New strategic environment requires a breakthrough in strategic thinking Security dilemma between Russia and Baltic States will not be solved until Russia becomes democratic The future relevance of BSR uncertain a separate BSR security agenda is obsolete.