With Florida absentee ballots dropping in 40 days (January 30 th ), we wanted to take the month of December to analyze the attitude and opinions of likely Republican primary voters to serve as an appropriate bookend to our research from this past summer. To this end we initially conducted a 400 sample, likely Republican primary voter survey in advance of a focus group we conducted on Tuesday night December 8 th in St. Petersburg, FL. We picked this city because Pinellas County had the 2 nd highest number of Republican votes cast in the 2012 Florida Presidential Preference. That following week, after the 5 th and final Republican debate of 2015, we fielded an 800 likely Republican primary voter survey in Florida on Wednesday & Thursday, December 16 & 17 th. However, with so many states voting prior to March 15, and with two native sons in the race for the Republican nomination, we acknowledged that Florida very well could be an outlier. Therefore, in order to put the Florida data in proper context, we also fielded surveys in South Carolina (600 likely Republican primary voters) on Wednesday & Thursday December 16 & 17 and then in (500 likely Republican & Unaffiliated voters) on Thursday & Friday December 17 & 18. This summary provides the open-ended ballot tests of the three states first, followed by a second choice ballot in the early states only. We did not conduct a three-way ballot in Florida as it seems our winner take all primary occurs much too late in the calendar for a relevant comparison today. Trump + 8% Open-Ended First Choice Ballot Tie Florida Trump + 11% Donald Trump 24% Donald Trump 27% Donald Trump 29% Ted Cruz 16% Ted Cruz 27% Ted Cruz 18% Marco Rubio 14% Marco Rubio 12% Marco Rubio 17% Chris Christie 13% Ben Carson 11% Jeb Bush 10% Jeb Bush 9% Jeb Bush 7% Ben Carson 6% Others 13% Others 5% Others 8% Undecided 11% Undecided 11% Undecided 12% Second Choice Ted Cruz 20% Marco Rubio 26% Marco Rubio 19% Ted Cruz 23% Chris Christie 17% Ben Carson 11% Donald Trump 9% Donald Trump 9% Ben Carson 7% Jeb Bush 6% Others 17% Others 13% Undecided 11% Undecided 12% Given the considerable distance by which the top 3 candidates outpaced the rest of the field in these surveys, our analysis focuses on them rather than the complete field. There are two obvious findings in these top lines: one is that Senator Cruz has managed to now tie Donald Trump in. The second is that Senators Cruz & Rubio are dominating the second choice ballot, with Governor Chris Christie making a strong case in. There is a mountain of valuable data points in this research summarized here into 3 key points, however
this data solely reflects how the year is ending after the 5 debates, terrorist attacks at home and abroad and the Donald Trump phenomenon. 1) Early State Numbers Prove This Race is Still Young As of this writing there are 42 days remaining until the Iowa Caucuses, 50 and 61 days remaining until the & primaries respectively. These first three events we refer to as the early states and we underscore this data is a snapshot in time and only meant to detail how 2015 is ending. There is still plenty of time for movement within the top tier candidates and this is evidenced by the soft image ratings of virtually every candidate we surveyed in &. As a reminder, when a voter gives us their initial image of a candidate, whether it be favorable or unfavorable, we push for intensity on that opinion by asking if it s somewhat favorable or very favorable. We then collapse or add those numbers together for a topline rating (i.e. 23% and 20% is a 43% Favorability rating). The higher a candidate s very percentage, be it favorable or unfavorable, is a gauge of intensity. With that in mind the image ratings in these early states suggests there is still much room for movement for virtually all of the candidates, and we should expect the persuasion efforts to ramp up dramatically after the holidays. Below is a table of the image ratings for the candidates we selected: Marco Rubio 18 52 11 7 Chris Christie 17 49 13 9 Ted Cruz 18 47 11 8 Ben Carson 10 42 23 9 Donald Trump 24 25 20 26 Jeb Bush 9 30 29 19 Ted Cruz 28 43 11 5 Marco Rubio 19 51 10 6 Ben Carson 17 46 16 8 Donald Trump 23 33 14 23 Jeb Bush 10 32 30 19 Lindsay Graham 6 22 30 25 2) At the end of 2015, the Republican Primary is Essentially a Three Way Contest As of today this data suggests the race for the Republican nomination is essentially a three-way contest between Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio. More specifically data from all three states confirm that Senator Cruz and Rubio find themselves deadlocked in a heated battle for second place, with their image numbers potentially serving as a leading indicator they could become the front runners before too much longer. We will note Governor Chris Christie has made up substantial ground in, however his current ballot placement in suggests that is largely a geographic advantage as he came in at
only 2% & 4% on the first & second choice ballot in, and only 3% in Florida. 3) 2015: Donald Trump s Perfect Storm Even though Mr. Trump is leading in Florida &, and is now tied with Senator Cruz in, it appears he may have now hit his ceiling. Our Florida focus group provided the most insight into this subject because it demonstrated that the large field of GOP candidates is likely doing as much or more to enable and sustain Donald Trump s frontrunner status than anything he himself has done. However, there also is a deep sense of division within the Republican Party and this divide can be described as the fuel which has propelled Mr. Trump s rise. Mr. Trump clearly has benefited from an environment within the Republican base which expresses deep disenchantment with their elected party leaders, as well as the entire political process as a whole. In our Florida focus group, all likely primary voting Republicans expressed negative sentiments about the direction of the country, but the words used to describe the leadership of their own party mirrored rhetoric typically reserved to describe political figures on the left. These voters believed there is a profound alienation between them and their elected leaders at virtually all levels of government. They also sensed their elected leaders have no interest in the well-being of ordinary Americans but instead perpetuate a government that increasingly disconnects from the needs of the people they serve. It s clear that the candidates who best empathize with those sentiments (i.e. Trump & Cruz) will have the best starting position as the 2016 primaries begin. Our survey data suggests Mr. Trump s sustained lead, often described in the media as dominating the Republican field, is mostly a result of simple mathematics rather than his prowess as a candidate. After all, any candidate who is backed by 25% of a likely electorate will look dominant when ~65% of that electorate is split 12 ways and another ~10% remain undecided. More specifically Mr. Trump has the same level of support within the Republican Party s current 12-way primary as self-proclaimed socialist Senator Bernie Sanders has in his 3- way primary in the Democrat Party according to early state polls and a compilation of national survey averages. In each instance, both candidates extreme positions speak to an isolated, but distinct and very disenchanted base within their respective parties. Real Clear Politics Survey as of 12/20 Donald Trump Bernie Sanders National Average 34% 31% Iowa 30% 37% 28% 51% 34% 23% Florida 34% 21% Clearly though, the data is conclusive that Mr. Trump has successfully cornered the market on 24%-30% of the GOP primary base in the states we surveyed. His supporters are passionate. They describe the leadership of the Republican Party with adjectives not appropriate for this document and is not likely that they will be pulling their support of Mr. Trump, regardless of what he says or does, as long as he is in the race. If a single candidate emerges as an alternative to Mr. Trump it will not be due to the negatives of Mr. Trump alone. Either the field will have to
shrink and/or a candidate will have to empathize with these real feelings within the Party and rise on their own merits (as Senator Cruz appears to be doing). Do we believe Mr. Trump can still secure the GOP nomination? Possibly. But as of today it seems there are likely alternatives. To reiterate, as long as 60% of the Republican Primary electorate is spread amongst 12 candidates, Mr. Trump s ceiling of support very well may be enough to secure the nomination. However, we point to Mr. Trump's image in comparison to the other top contenders as a possible leading indicator of his true position in this race. The 2 nd & 3 rd place candidates enjoy a sizable advantage in their favorability rating over Mr. Trump. Therefore it is difficult today to envision the GOP nominating a candidate that ~40% of them collectively view unfavorably. Florida Fav UnFav Net Fav Fav UnFav Net Fav Fav UnFav Net Fav Donald Trump 48 45 +3 56 37 +19 61 34 +27 Marco Rubio 69 18 +51 70 16 +54 73 18 +55 Ted Cruz 65 19 +46 71 17 +54 70 18 +52 Beyond just image ratings, another way we tested our theory about Mr. Trump reaching his ceiling was a hypothetical 3-way ballot to the voters in &. In, Mr. Trump gains 6% from the collapsed field while Senator Rubio gains 14% and Senator Cruz gains 10% respectively. However, the image ratings of those three candidates amongst the 16% of the undecided respondents is telling in this hypothetical ballot. Mr. Trump s image is largely underwater amongst this critical segment of voters: 3-Way Ballot Result Net Favorability Amongst Undecided Trump 30% -30 Rubio 28% +18 Cruz 26% +20 Undecided 16% In the results are the same. Mr. Trump gains 6% compared to the full field resulting in a statistical tie with Senator Cruz who gains 5%, and Senator Rubio gains 12% while 11% undecided. The internal data of the survey again shows the same trend as in : Mr. Trump is largely underwater with the undecideds in this hypothetical ballot as compared to Senators Cruz and Rubio: 3-Way Ballot Result Net Favorability Amongst Undecided Trump 33% -15 Cruz 32% +23 Rubio 24% +22 Undecided 11%
While these are hypothetical scenarios, they demonstrate that based on Mr. Trump s negative image ratings with these voters, the real fight in this primary as of today is between Senator Cruz and Senator Rubio and the next 50 days will be a true battle royal. In closing it appears that after the fifth and final debate of 2015 that Governor Chris Christie s latest efforts have resulted in a noticeable surge in. Senator Ted Cruz appears to be the candidate with the most momentum in and Florida, with Senator Rubio showing similar potential. However, as we saw in the debate last week, it s the battle between Senators Cruz and Rubio that will likely take the center stage of this primary over the next 2 months. Mr. Trump s continued advantage is largely built on an overly crowded field, but it s clear from all three surveys that Senator Rubio and Senator Cruz are both far from reaching their potential ceilings. For now, both candidates are well liked and have also managed to secure the #2 or #3 ballot spots in the states we surveyed. They also top out the second choice ballots in both early state surveys in this project. However, with relatively soft positives and overall low negatives we should all expect a heavy dose of persuasion to increase from both of them as they and their allies continue to define each other and become the prime targets for those beneath them on the ballot. We must give a very special thanks to Matt Mitchell & Joel Searby of Data Targeting for their assistance in the quantitative and qualitative research and analysis in Florida which provided us much of our insight while tracking the Trump phenomenon throughout 2015. Thank you also to Barry Zeplowitz & Bill Lee with Telopinion Research for their assistance in the quantitative analysis in &.