Environmental and resource conflicts: State of the art and conceptual approaches Jürgen Scheffran Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg Climate Society Lecture/Seminar 3, November 2, 2011 p. 1
2.11. Environmental and resource conflicts: State of the art and conceptual approaches Question: What are environmental conflicts? Are resource conflicts caused rather by resource scarcity or by resource abundance? Recommended readings: Homer-Dixon, Thomas F., 1991: On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict, in: International Security, 16,2 (Fall): 76 116. Homer-Dixon, Thomas F., 1994: Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence From Cases, in: International Security, 19,1 (Summer): 5-40. Le Billon, P. 2001. The Political Ecology of War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflicts, Political Geography 20(5): 561-584. Background material: Bächler, G.; Spillmann, K.R. (eds.) 1996: Kriegsursache Umweltzerstörung, Chur/Zürich. Gleditsch, N.P., 1998: Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature in: Journal of Peace Research, 35,3 (May): 381-400. Homer-Dixon, T.F. 1999. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton University Press, Princeton. p. 2
Security after the Cold War Cold War: Bilateral East-West conflict, focus on military force assessments New security agenda after end of the cold war 1989 91 From confrontation to partnership Bipolarity replaced by unipolarity (US superpower) Post Cold War disorder: large number of actors and factors including political, military, economic, technological, health and environmental Asymmetric warfare: Western alliance, led by US, against rogue states, lawbreakers, terrorists (Iraq war, Afghanistan war, War Against Terror) International society: United Nations, UN Security Council p. 3
Meanings of security Negative definition of security: Ability to protect against danger, threat and doubt, the evil of insecurity'' (Wolfers 1962). Absence of threat "to be secure is to feel free from threats, anxiety or danger. Security is therefore a state of the mind in which an individual feels safe from harm by others." (Art 1993) Positive definition of security: Preservation of values, assurance people have that they will continue to enjoy those things that are most important to their survival and well-being (Soroos 1997). Threats to these values are perceived as security risks p. 4
Components of security risk Risk = Probability of damage AND Amount of damage p. 5
Components of security threat Threat = Motivation to threaten AND Capability to threaten p. 6
Levels of security 1. Security for the individual (human security). 2. Security for the social group, the community, organized national or ethnic entity (societal security). 3. Security for the State or "nation," in the US terminology (national security). 4. Security for the society of nations or what could be referred to as "international society," consisting of all, or most states in the world (international security). 5. Security for the globe, meaning "Spaceship Earth" or the planet (global security). p. 7
Dimensions of security Economic security: availability of economic resources, stability, institutions and relations to provide for an adequate level of welfare Information security: integrity of the systems that supply and process information on which modern society is dependent Environmental/ecological security: integrity and sustainability of the natural environment as the basis for all life and the supplier of resources on which societies and states build Bio-security: security against biological risks and threats Energy security: security of energy supply against accident, disruption and attack Climate security: Preventing and managing risks and threats induced by climate change p. 8
Human security Centered on the security and welfare of human individuals Focuses on shielding people from critical and pervasive threats and empowering them to take charge of their lives (CHS, 2003). Human security is people-centered and thus concerned with how people behave and how their behavior can be influenced in ways that foster or undermine individual and group wellbeing. (UNDP 1994) Broad concept: analytic usefulness? p. 9
Major theories in international security (Neo-)Realism: States are rational actors in pursuit of national interests who compete for power in an anarchical environment requiring self-defense for survival, leading to the security dilemma. (Neo-)Liberalism: explains international security by domestic structures and the benefits of cooperation in spite of anarchy; addresses interdependence through institutions and regimes Constructivism: emphasizes change; individual and collective learning, and an adaptation of norms that shape the environment. Focuses on the agents of change, their norms, habits and communication. p. 10
The Security Dilemma Definition: In its simplest form the security dilemma is the condition whereby a state s attempts to increase its own security has the effect of decreasing another state s security. Why a Security Dilemma? Anarchy Self-help Sovereignty Power accumulation Offense advantages over defense p. 11
The Prisoners Dilemma: a model for conflict Two prisoners and the sheriff: Defect or not defect? Prisoners can blame each other (defect) Prisoners can both keep quiet (cooperate) Preference order for each prisoner: 1. Unilaterally defect to reduce punishment 2. Both cooperate 3. Both defect 4. Cooperate while the other defects p. 12
The Prisoners Dilemma Cooperate Defect Cooperate (2,2) (4,1) Defect (1,4) (3,3) Preference orders p. 13
The Prisoners Dilemma Cooperate Defect Cooperate (2,2) (4,1) Defect (1,4) (3,3) Preference orders p. 14
Prisoners Dilemma in international security Game setting Two countries can cooperate and reduce threat (arms) One country can increase threat (arms) for its own security One country cannot solely guarantee security Preference order for each country 1. Arm while the other disarms 2. Mutual cooperation and disarmament 3. Both arm 4. Disarm while the other country arms p. 15
The Prisoners Dilemma game in the security world (dynamic) Disarm Arm Disarm (2,2) (4,1) Arm (1,4) (3,3) Preference orders p. 16
The Chicken Game No attack No attack (2,2) Attack (3,1) Attack (1,3) (4,4) James Dean, Rebel Without a Cause; Cuban Missile Crisis p. 17
What is conflict? Conflict: Difference or incompatibility between values and actions of actors Actors: persons, groups, States, firms, etc. Conflict potential: continued differences on Values/goals (interests, needs, motivations, risks, objectives, targets) Resources/means (cost, investment, energy, information, force) Options/actions (decision alternatives, technology paths, behavior modes) Conflict dynamics: Process involving actors whose actions fail to reduce their conflict potential to tolerable levels Conflict escalation: actions increase conflict potential (unstable) Conflict resolution: actions reduce conflict potential (stable) Cooperation: actors adapt their goals, means and actions p. 18
Conflict and War Conflict is a state of opposition, disagreement or incompatibility between two or more social actors (individuals, groups), which is sometimes characterized by physical violence. Definitions of War: armed conflict between two independent political units, by means of organized military force, in the pursuit of a tribal or national policy (Malinowski 1968). events that produce substantial militarized arms conflict between organized military forces of independent nations. p. 19
Intrastate conflict Civil conflict: Conflict between members of a group that disagree on who should run a state and how it should be run Civil war: A war between factions of the same country; there are five criteria for international recognition of this status: (1990 FM 100-20) 1. the contestants must control territory, 2. have a functioning government, 3. enjoy some foreign recognition, 4. have identifiable regular armed forces, and 5. engage in major military operations. Ethnic conflict; Conflicts in which groups that define themselves using ethnic or national criteria make claims on behalf of their collective interests against the state, or against other political actors, Gurr in Crocker et al (1996: 53) p. 20
Definition of armed conflict (Peace Research Institute Oslo) Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP): conflict is a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths. Elements of the definition: (1) Use of armed force: use of arms in order to promote the parties general position in the conflict, resulting in deaths. (1.1) Arms: any material means, e.g. manufactured weapons but also sticks, stones, fire, water etc. (2) 25 deaths: A minimum of 25 battle-related deaths per year and per dyad in an incompatibility. (3) Party: A government of a state or any opposition organization or alliance of organizations. Primary parties are those that form an incompatibility by stating incompatible positions. At least one of the primary parties is the government of a state. Secondary parties are states that enter a conflict with troops to actively support one of the primary parties. The secondary party must share the position of the primary party it is supporting in the incompatibility. p. 21
Frequency and severity of armed conflict since 1946 Source: UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset and PRIO Battle Deaths Dataset (Buhaug-Gleditsch-Theissen 2008) p. 22
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Armed conflict in 2006 Source: PRIO p. 25
Conflict intensities Source: Conflict Barometer; Heidelberg 2008 p. 26
Intra- and interstate conflicts of high intensity 1945-2008 Source: Conflict Barometer; Heidelberg 2008 p. 27
High-intensity violent conflicts in 2008 Source: Conflict Barometer; Heidelberg 2008 p. 28
Global conflicts of low, medium and high Intensity 1945 to 2008 Source: Conflict Barometer; Heidelberg 2008 p. 29
World map of environmental conflicts (1980 2005): Causes and intensity Source: Carius et al., 2006 p. 30
Research groups and data sources in environmental conflict analysis Toronto Project on Environmental Change and Acute Conflict Environment and Conflict Project (ENCOP) International Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Uppsala Conflict Data Program Non-State Conflict Dataset Global Environmental Change and Human Security project (GECHS) Adelphi Research Berlin, German Advisory Council (WBGU) KOSIMO database: Heidelberger Institut für Internationale Konfliktforschung Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE): American Univers.of Washington Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT): Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Louvain World Health Organization s (WHO) CRED Correlates of War (CoW) project, University of Illinois Cline Center for Democracy event database, University of Illinois p. 31
Environment and conflicts Extended interference of human beings with natural environment changes conditions for human needs Conflicts on the degradation and scarcity of fresh water, land and vegetation Significant fraction of armed conflicts has an environmental component Sub-state conflicts are dominating Societal framework conditions, political problem-solving capability and civilian conflict management capacity determine conflict degree p. 32
Types of environmental conflicts 1. Scarcity conflicts 2. Conflicts caused by resource abundance 3. Conflicts on resource access and fair distribution 4. Conflicts on the risk of resource use 5. Conflicts between human needs and natural limits 6. Conflicts on options, goals and means p. 33
Environmental conflict: Problem of the South? Industrialized countries: Largest consumer of scarce resources Largest polluter of the environment Instruments and institutions for problem-solving Developing countries: Natural resources important for development Dependence on agriculture Vulnerability to environmental conflicts Low capability for damage limitation and conflict resolutions p. 34
Environmental change and acute conflict Homer-Dixon 1991 p. 35
Resource capture Homer-Dixon 1995 p. 36
Ecological marginalization Homer-Dixon 1995 p. 37
Some sources and consequences of environmental scarcity Homer-Dixon 1991 p. 38
Comparison of conflict types p. 39
Types of environmental conflict in the developing world Homer-Dixon p. 40 1991
Possible effect of environmental change on agricultural production Homer-Dixon 1991 p. 41
Possible effects of environmental change on economic productivity in developing countries Homer-Dixon 1991 p. 42
Environmental scarcity in the Philippines Homer-Dixon 1991p. 43
Le Billon: Political ecology of war Armed groups rely on revenues from natural resources such as oil, timber, or gems. Resources financed and motivated conflicts, and shaped strategies of power around valuable resource areas and trading networks. Post-Cold War period is increasingly characterised by a specific political ecology closely linked to the geography and political economy of natural resources. Vulnerability from resource dependence, rather than scarcity. Opportunities for armed insurgents resulting from the lootability of resources. Violence subjugates the rights of people to use their environment. Brutal patterns of resource extraction and predation. Criminal character of resources inclusion in international primary commodity markets responds to an exclusionary form of globalisation. p. 44
Resource accessibility by rebel forces Homer-Dixon 1995 p. 45
Characteristics of resources Concentration of resources Diffuse resources are, in the main, those exploited over wide areas through a large number of small-scale operators. The high accessibility of diffuse resources makes it harder for governments to control and tax exploitation, and facilitates illegal operations. Diffuse resources include alluvial gems and minerals, timber and agricultural products that are not exploited through industrial modes of production. Point resources are exploited in small areas by a small number of capital-intensive operators. These resources include oil and deepshaft hard mineral exploitation, such as copper, iron and kimberlite diamonds. Oftenresources have a low value-to-weight ratio and must be transported in very large quantities to yield sizeable profits. Distance of resources Proximate resources are easier for the government to control and less likely to be captured by rebels than resources in the vicinity of an area inhabited by a politically marginalised group. Distant resources are more difficult for the government to control, for example, because of their location in remote territories along porous borders, or within the territory of a political opposition group. p. 46
Relation between resource characteristics and types of conflicts p. 47
Le Billon: Political ecology of war Armed conflicts and natural resources directly related : armed conflicts motivated by the control of resources, and resources integrated into the financing of armed conflicts. Greed-driven resource wars? political and identity factors key Local resource exploitation schemes: production of territories based on resource location control and access to labour and capital institutional structures and practices of resource management incorporations into global trading networks. Level of dependence, conflictuality, and lootability of a resource No environmentally deterministic relation: specific social processes. Desires, needs and practices weaving nature into societies as resources Resource-linked conflicts embedded in social relations p. 48
9.11. Climate change as a security risk: Overview and framework of analysis Question: Is climate change a security risk? Will environmental conflicts become more likely? Recommended readings: Barnett, J. & Adger, W.N. (2007): Climate change, human security and violent conflict, Political Geography, 26: 639-655. Nordås, R. & Gleditsch, N.P. (eds.) (2007): Climate Change and Conflict, Political Geography, 26 (6): 627-736. Scheffran, J. & Battaglini, A. (2011): Climate and Conflicts - The security risks of global warming, Regional Environmental Change, 11 (Suppl. 1), 27-39. Background material (relevant for the whole class): Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N.P. & Theisen, O.M. (2008): Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict. Paper commissioned by World Bank Group for "Social Dimensions of Climate Change" workshop, Washington, D.C., 5-6 March 2008. Campbell, K. M. et al. (2007): The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change, Washington, DC, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November. CNA (2007): National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, Alexandria, VA, Center for Naval Analysis. Maas, A. & Tänzler, D. (2009): Regional security implications of climate change. A synopsis, Adelphi Report 01/09, Berlin, Adelphi Consulting. Smith, D. & Vivekananda, J. (2007): The links between climate change, peace and war, International Alert, November. WBGU (2007): World in Transition Climate Change as a Security Risk, German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin, Springer Verlag. Welzer, H. (2008): Klimakriege Wofür im 21. Jahrhundert getötet wird, Fischer Verlag. p. 49