Setting the Scene: The South African Informal Sector Caroline Skinner Urban Informality and Migrant Entrepreneurship
International Statistics South African Context Labour Market Policy Context Size and Shape of the Informal Sector latest statistics Conclusion
4 South African Context: Labour Market Relative to other developing countries, the SA informal sector is small (and unemployment levels are high). Many commentators have noted that our informal sector is comparatively lacklustre. Apartheid legislation imposed harsh restrictions on small business activities by black South Africans. 4.6% of the SA population are foreign migrants (just under 2.4 million people)*. Due to high barriers to entry in other segments of the labour market, foreigners often have no choice but to operate in the informal economy. *Source: United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision.
5 South African Context: Policy Those working in the informal sector in South Africa generally operate under hostile conditions. In many cases this is particularly so for foreigners. Anti-foreign sentiment is rife among local and national government officials and politicians and many informal sector operators.
Cape Town 9 February 2014
7 South African Context: Policy 2013 Draft Licensing of Businesses Bill all businesses no matter how small must register and states only foreigners who have a business permit will be granted licenses. Business permits are only granted if the person applying can guarantee that they have R2.5 million to invest in South Africa. The Bill is currently under review. Analysis and assessment of the contribution of foreigners to the South African informal sector has been a glaring gap all the more pressing in the context of the Bill and worrying xenophobic trends.
South African Informal Sector: 2008-2013 8
Methods 9 Data work done with Simon Goemans. Using Quarterly Labour Force Survey statistics from Q1 2008 Q2 2013. 30 000 household survey, representative, no questions asked about nationality - are foreigners underrepresented? Used the Stats SA definition of the informal sector: i) Employees working in establishments that employ less than five employees, who do not deduct income tax from their salaries/wages; and ii) Employers, own-account workers and persons helping unpaid in their household business who are not registered for either income tax or value-added tax. Figures reflect non-agricultural work.
Total Non-agricultural Employment: 2008-2013 10 thousands
Recession Job Losses 11 13,400 13,200 13,137 13,000 12,800 12,997 12,759 12,760 12,867 12,962 12,600 12,516 12,400 12,200 12,352 12,388 12,405 12,264 12,251 12,000 11,800 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Size Informal Sector 12 2,400 2,425 2,317 2,249 2,220 2,172 2,067 2,193 2,097 2,236 2,216 2,255 2,205 2,243 2,192 2,168 2,136 2,117 2,264 2,240 2,2402,234 thousands Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
13 Race: Predominance of Black Africans
14 Sex: Predominately Male Sex: Informal Sector Sex: Formal Sector Female, 40.0% Female, 41.7% Male, 60.0% Male, 58.3% Source: QLFS, Q2 2013
Sex: Increasing Male Dominance 15 1,600 Male Female 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1,301 1,313 1,099 1,144 1,357 923 906 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
16 Informal Sector: Education 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 44.2% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 19.4% 23.5% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 3.5% 1.1% 1.7% Source: QLFS, Q2 2013
Informal Sector Industry Breakdown 17 Transport, storage & communication, 9.2% Financial services, 6.5% Other, 0.2% Wholesale & retail trade, 44.1% Manufacturing, 9.9% Construction, 14.8% Community, social & personal services, 15.2% Source: QLFS, Q2 2013
Number of Employees: % 18 60.0 Informal sector Formal sector 50.0 50.8 40.0 40.21 30.0 30.0 20.0 17.5 20.3 10.0 0.0 11.3 11.96 6.4 4.45 2.98 1.63 0.97 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 1 2-4 5-9 10-19 20-49 50+ DK Source: QLFS, Q2 2013
19 Number of Employees by Industry (IS)
Hours worked Percentage of people in category 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Informal sector Formal sector Source: QLFS, Q2 2013
Percentage of Non-agricultural Work by Province 21 Source: QLFS, Q2 2013
Median Monthly Wages by Sex 22 1400 Male Female 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4
Median Monthly Wages by Industry 23 1400 Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail trade Community, social & personal services Construction Transport, storage & communication 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4
24 Regression Simple OLS regression on real earnings to evaluate mean income differences between education levels, gender, and industries Women in the informal sector earn consistently less than men, age is positively correlated, there are increasing returns to education, and the industries as a whole are relatively similar. Financial services have the highest wages, followed by transport and construction.
Regression results 25 Dependent variable: ln(real earnings) Pooled data Individual quarters 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 Female -0.47*** -0.49*** -0.46*** -0.41*** -0.43*** -0.41*** -0.46*** -0.45*** -0.52*** -0.46*** -0.57*** (0.017) (0.017) (0.019) (0.049) (0.056) (0.053) (0.049) (0.051) (0.052) (0.054) (0.051) Age 0.023*** 0.025*** 0.026*** 0.031*** 0.022** 0.02 0.034** 0.015 0.031*** 0.021* 0.035*** (0.0046) (0.0043) (0.0043) (0.011) (0.011) (0.014) (0.013) (0.013) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) Age^2-0.00023*** -0.00017*** -0.00017*** -0.00024* -0.00011-0.00011-0.00030* -0.00006-0.0002-0.00011-0.00031** (0.000058) (0.000053) (0.000053) (0.00014) (0.00013) (0.00017) (0.00017) (0.00016) (0.00013) (0.00014) (0.00013) Primary school 0.043 0.039 0.21** 0.091 0.15 0.1-0.015 0.16* -0.24** -0.18 (0.036) (0.036) (0.088) (0.1) (0.093) (0.097) (0.1) (0.091) (0.12) (0.11) High school 0.31*** 0.30*** 0.43*** 0.32*** 0.38*** 0.36*** 0.28*** 0.48*** 0.071 0.018 (0.036) (0.036) (0.088) (0.1) (0.096) (0.092) (0.11) (0.09) (0.12) (0.11) Matric or more 0.77*** 0.76*** 0.94*** 0.80*** 0.80*** 0.71*** 0.75*** 0.98*** 0.54*** 0.49*** (0.04) (0.04) (0.11) (0.12) (0.12) (0.098) (0.11) (0.096) (0.12) (0.11) Mining and quarrying -0.34 0.54-0.44-0.59*** 0.36*** -0.74** 0.26 1.08 0.60*** (0.26) (0.37) (0.28) (0.21) (0.1) (0.38) (0.18) (1.32) (0.088) Manufacturing 0.032 0.21** 0.063 0.018 0.05 0.054 0.02-0.054-0.095 (0.028) (0.096) (0.075) (0.097) (0.078) (0.075) (0.077) (0.066) (0.067) Electricity, gas and water supply -0.04 0.48 1.79*** 1.78*** -0.12-1.41*** -0.17-0.061 0.17** (0.26) (0.47) (0.061) (0.078) (0.55) (0.52) (0.19) (0.25) (0.067) Construction 0.075*** 0.14** 0.067 0.16* 0.02 0.032 0.11 0.051 0.0054 (0.027) (0.068) (0.085) (0.09) (0.078) (0.071) (0.07) (0.072) (0.064) Transport, storage and 0.096*** 0.16** 0.073 0.11 0.067 0.13 0.15** 0.021 0.04 communication (0.03) (0.073) (0.072) (0.11) (0.085) (0.083) (0.077) (0.081) (0.082) Financial intermediation, insurance, 0.14*** 0.18* -0.02 0.029 0.039 0.21** 0.19** 0.25*** 0.23** real estate and business services (0.034) (0.092) (0.085) (0.12) (0.087) (0.09) (0.094) (0.092) (0.096) Community, social and personal 0.042* 0.031 0.041 0.067 0.023 0.015 0.017 0.079 0.075 services (0.025) (0.071) (0.071) (0.082) (0.068) (0.066) (0.071) (0.069) (0.065) _cons 6.57*** 6.06*** 6.01*** 5.71*** 6.08*** 6.06*** 5.95*** 6.26*** 5.75*** 6.41*** 6.25*** (0.092) (0.091) (0.091) (0.22) (0.25) (0.28) (0.27) (0.27) (0.23) (0.25) (0.23) r2 0.0440 0.1000 0.1000 0.1200 0.1000 0.0840 0.0810 0.1100 0.1400 0.1100 0.1200 N 27 012 27 012 27 012 3 433 3 536 3 410 3 387 3 248 3 320 3 337 3 341 N_pop 17 410 250 17 410 250 17 410 250 2 076 269 2 211 102 2 185 434 2 236 436 2 182 738 2 219 185 2 155 556 2 143 531
Abiding Curiosities 26 Given our high unemployment levels, what are the barriers to entry to the South African informal sector? What are the constraints to growth /more secure livelihoods for people working in the informal sector? 26
The Role of Foreigners 27 How do foreigners working in the South African IS compare to these national averages? If compared to their South African counterparts what are foreigners doing differently? How does this differ by sector? Where are the areas of current collaboration between foreigners and South Africans (supply, employment, hiring of premises)? How could these areas be strengthened? Some quantification of foreigners contribution to both the economy and to poorer consumers. 27
thank you caroline.skinner@uct.ac.za