1. National Opinion Poll: Early February 2015 - for Publication on 15 th February 2015
Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 15 th February 2015. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, potential coalition options in the future, reaction to Leo Varadkar and opinions on the upcoming same sex marriage referendum. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 1,019 interviews were conducted at 66 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 29 th January and 9 th February. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. 2. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1
Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-toface basis in the home at 66 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 POLL The 1,019 interviews on the poll were carried out between 29 th January & 9 th February 2015. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2015. 3.
4. The Results
Some volatility, but the message remains consistent This latest Millward Brown Opinion Poll, conducted in the early part of this month, shows a large amount of volatility for some, but an unfortunate degree of consistency for others. First off, support for the two Government parties has shown an aggregate rise of four percent. However, it is Fine Gael who will have more to be satisfied with. They have rebounded back somewhat from the late Autumn and early Winter, and stand at 25pc (up 3pc). Labour too has increased, although moving from five points to six is hardly much cause for succour. Also satisfaction with the government s performance has also shifted upwards, although with just 23pc of the electorate happy (up 4pc), it is still underwhelming. Fine Gael will be hoping that this recent rise in support is not the traditional New Year boost that we have seen in the past, but rather something more substantive, based on continuing good economic news. Optimists within the party will point to the fact that there has been, to a certain extent, a purge of the unfortunate protagonists from 2014 Alan Shatter and Phil Hogan have been moved from the front bench, whilst James Reilly has relinquished the Health portfolio. In addition, John McNulty is but a distant memory. Leo Varadkar has equipped himself relatively well in Health compared to his predecessor, in spite of overseeing a record number of patients on trolleys on his watch. In essence, it seems that if Fine Gael can sit tight and avoid shooting themselves in the foot, then they could do quite well. Labour on the other hand, remain stubbornly rooted in single digit territory. Not for the first time, there will be a lot of very nervous backbenchers (especially from the school of 2011) looking over their shoulders. 5.
Some volatility, but the message remains consistent (Cont d) The Irish Water debacle has been particularly unkind to the party Joan Burton has become a lightning rod for the protesters. In addition, it is a Labour minister, Alan Kelly, who is being sent out to bat for the Government all of which is manna to the left wing opposition parties. Some within Labour may feel that they have been outflanked on this issue by Fine Gael (either by stealth or by accident). Sinn Fein have rebounded strongly in this most recent poll, largely at the expense of the Independents/ others. Regardless of the oscillations of senior members of the party in terms of whether they will pay their water charges or not, it seems they have adopted the mantle of being the lead opposition party in the Dail on this issue and are conducting themselves in a somewhat parliamentary manner. The concern for them however is that they are walking a fine line between hoovering up left wing support, and being seen as too left wing where many of those independents reside. Fianna Fail remain in the doldrums whilst up one point to 19pc, they will be concerned at their inability to make any real headway against this government. They are running out of track to make an impression with the electorate we are entering the final run-in to the next General election. At this stage they are flat-lining in these polls, and have been for the past year. Of course, for all parties, the rise to power of Syriza in Greece, and whatever the eventual outcome of the Greek negotiations with Europe are, will have a profound effect on Irish Party politics. The credibility of certain parties claims vis-à-vis our debts may be grievously compromised, depending on the Greek outcome. 6.
Some volatility, but the message remains consistent (Cont d) Setting aside the prospects in any upcoming general election, there is the more immediate matter of the Same Sex Marriage referendum in May. Leo Varadkar s coming out last month, coupled with Pat Carey s more recent disclosure have been warmly welcomed by many. But there is a long way to go between now and May. On the face of it, it would seem that the referendum will be easily passed (when Don t knows are excluded, there is an 80:20 ratio in favour). However, we have seen too many times in the past that apparently foregone conclusions towards referenda can evolve and change as a campaign gets underway think no further than Lisbon, the Seanad proposal, and even the Children s referendum as to how opinions can shift, and variables such as turn-out can influence a result. In addition, there is still a sizeable proportion of the population undecided (22pc). For those who have made up their minds (in either direction), there are relatively high levels of certainty in the decisions that have made. That said, for the Yes side in particular, there will be a fear of complacency setting in. Whilst they are undoubtedly in the driving seat at this early juncture, dynamics may change as a campaign gets underway, and they will be keen to ensure that there is nothing taken for granted. 7.
8. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions
Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result Feb 2011 Opinion Poll 29 th Jan 9 th Feb Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 29 th Jan 9 th Feb Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 36 Fine Gael Labour 18 4 25 Fianna Fáil 14 6 Labour 19 Independents/Others 16 19 Fianna Fáil 17 Sinn Féin 19 23 The Green Party 2 Green Party 1 Independents/others 15 Don t know 29 26 Sinn Féin 10 1 9. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Feb 6 th 13 th 2013 Feb 16 th 28 th 2013 Mar 4 th 14 th 2013 Mar 30 th Apr 10 th 2013 May 5 th -16 th 2013 May 17 th 28 th 2013 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 2014 Feb 19 th -28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2014 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th -18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec Jan 8 th -18 th 29 th -Feb 9 th 2014 2015 Fine Gael 25 24 25 24 23 27 26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party United Left Alliance* Independents/others 27 20 13 1 14 23 29 21 20 11 2 9 1 1 * 19 16 27 26 27 29 25 28 27 27 24 26 16 19 17 19 21 19 19 19 21 16 12 12 11 8 8 8 10 9 9 2 12 1 * 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 * - 1-18 18 17 18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 18 20 21 21 22 21 22 24 22 26 20 5 2 8 6 7 9 7 2 2 1 1 1 - - - 32 20 21 23 23 23 19 26 6 1 23 10. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR GREEN PARTY INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* 36 29 30 26 27 28 27 27 27 29 25 25 25 22 22 29 28 27 27 25 24 26 21 22 20 21 20 17 18 19 19 19 21 19 19 21 16 10 26 26 24 22 22 20 21 19 8 8 8 10 12 9 9 8 6 7 9 7 5 6 23 23 23 18 18 17 18 20 21 15 15 14 15 32 23 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 11. *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?
Satisfaction with the Government has recovered slightly in the new year, but is still underwhelming Less than one in four are happy with the Current performance HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 94 Independents Supporters 83 Fianna Fail Supporters 81 Dissatisfied (71) 68 23 9 Satisfied (19) Fine Gael Supporters 73 Labour Supporters 43 Dublin Residents 33 ABs 31 45-54 Year Olds 28 55-64 Year Olds 76 Leinster Residents 76 Don t know (9) Conn/Ulster Residents 76 DEs 73 ( )= December 2014 Results 12. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with Government Over Time 2013 results 2014 results 2015 results Mar 13 Apr 13 May 5 th 16 th 13 May 17 th -28 th 13 June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th 14 Feb 19 th 28 th 2014 Apr 5 th -15 th 2013 Jul 18 th 30 th 2014 Sep 9 th 18 th 2014 Oct 21 st 31 st 2014 Dec 8 th 18 th 2014 Jan 29 th Feb 9 th 2015 Dissatisfied 74 75 73 74 75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71 66 69 62 73 71 68 Satisfied 20 17 19 18 17 19 19 20 21 19 23 20 24 23 27 21 19 23 Don t know 7 8 8 8 7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6 9 9 13.
Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore Joan Burton* Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Early Aug Late Late Aug Sept Early Oct Early Jan Feb Nov 14 14 Apr July Sept Oct 14 14 14 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Early Aug Late Late Aug Sept Early Oct Early Jan Feb Nov 14 14 Apr July Sept Oct 14 14 14 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Early Aug Late Late Aug Sept Early Oct Early Jan Feb Nov 14 14 Apr July Sept Oct 14 14 14 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Early Aug Late Late Aug Sept Early Oct Early Jan Feb Nov 14 14 Apr July Sept Oct 14 14 14 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Satisfied 25 24 27 25 25 28 25 27 27 31 25 21 24 27 30 28 29 16 15 17 16 16 16 18 22 23 28 27 30 26 25 28 26 27 30 29 24 29 24 25 24 23 28 22 26 25 28 27 16 19 23 29 Dissatisfied 40 48 66 67 64 67 66 62 65 62 61 58 56 67 69 64 62 61 71 72 70 72 73 68 68 69 56 54 55 55 59 57 54 56 49 48 54 56 49 57 57 56 59 63 62 52 54 46 48 56 57 50 Don t know (8) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (10) (12) (12) (13) (13) (12) (11) (16) (14) (15) (33) (22) (17) (16) (16) (15) (18) (18) (15) (15) (18) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (20) (22) (19) (18) (20) (17) (15) (20) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17) (20) (21) 14. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 93 Independents Supporters 82 Fianna Fail Supporters 78 Leinster Residents 75 Conn/Ulster Residents 72 DEs 71 55-64 Year Olds 70 Dissatisfied (69) Satisfied 24 (21) 64 12 Don t know (10) HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 79 Farming Community 40 Dublin Residents 33 65+ Year Olds 31 ABs 31 Labour Supporters 28 ( )= December 2014 Results 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 89 Independents Supporters 76 Leinster Residents 70 Fianna Fail Supporters 68 45-54 Year Olds 67 55-64 Year Olds 67 DEs 67 Dissatisfied (62) 61 16 23 Satisfied (22) Don t know (16) HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 62 Labour Supporters 58 Farming Community 42 65+ Year Olds 39 Dublin Residents 29 ABs 28 ( )= December 2014 Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 70 Independents Supporters 59 55-64 Year Olds 54 Dublin Residents 54 C2DEs 53 Dissatisfied (56) 49 22 29 Satisfied (24) HIGHER AMONG Fianna Fail Supporters 75 Conn/Ulster Residents 47 65+ Year Olds 43 Fine Gael Supporters 40 Farming Community 38 ABs 35 Labour Supporters 33 Don t know (20) ( )= December 2014 Results 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG 65+ Year Olds 70 Fine Gael Supporters 68 ABs 63 Farming Community 63 55-64 Year Olds 61 Dissatisfied (57) 50 29 21 Satisfied (23) HIGHER AMONG Males 34 DEs 35 Sinn Fein Supporters 81 Fianna Fail Supporters 60 Independents Supporters 57 Don t know (20) Munster Residents 55 Females 54 ( )= December 2014 Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent Supporters Enda Kenny 24 79 28 17 4 8 Joan Burton 23 62 58 23 6 12 Michéal Martin 29 40 33 75 15 18 Gerry Adams 29 15 26 26 81 20 DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny 64 16 56 78 93 82 Joan Burton 61 28 20 68 89 76 Michéal Martin 49 41 44 13 70 59 Gerry Adams 50 68 56 60 11 57 19. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
20. National Opinion Poll: Early February 2015 - Special Questions for Publication on 15 th February 2015
Leo Varadkar remains the preferred option to lead Fine Gael into the next election, but Enda Kenny continues to get the nod among FG supporters Leo Varadkar (17) Enda Kenny (11) Simon Coveney (9) Michael Noonan (5) Frances Fitzgerald (3) Don t know (29) 18 11 10 6 2 26 AMONG FINE GAEL SUPPORTERS Enda Kenny 40 Leo Varadkar 22 Simon Coveney 15 Michael Noonan 7 Frances Fitzgerald 4 Don t know 8 None of them 4 Someone else 1 None of them (21) 21 Someone else (4) 6 ( )= December 2014 Results 21. Q. Who would you like to lead Fine Gael into the next General Election?
Support for the formation of a new political party continues to slip back, with less than two in five desiring such a development Dec 2012 June 2013 Aug 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Oct 2014 Dec 2014 Feb 2015 YES HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 54 Independents Supporters 54 Yes 50 46 40 46 35 47 40 38 Munster Residents 45 C2s 43 35-44 Year Olds 41 55-64 Year Olds 41 No It depends Don t know 40 38 35 33 38 8 9 11 6 3 9 10 11 15 17 38 5 11 33 35 11 13 17 14 NO HIGHER AMONG Fianna Fail Supporters 57 Fine Gael Supporters 56 Farming Community 50 65+ Year Olds 49 Conn/Ulster Residents 43 ABs 41 22. Q. Do you think there is a need for a new political party at this time or not?
Shane Ross edges Lucinda Creighton in terms of leading such a party, but in general, support is lukewarm for all potential leaders. Shane Ross 16 Lucinda Creighton 13 Michael Fitzmaurice 4 Stephen Donnelly 4 Don t know 26 None of these 16 No interest in a new party 13 Someone else 8 23. Q. If there are a number of new parties/alliances created ahead of the next general election, which of the following potential party leaders would encourage you to vote for that party?
Preferred Coalition options in next government Fine Gael/Labour Sinn Fein/Independents Sinn Fein and another party 11 11 10 Fine Gael/ Fianna Fail Fianna Fail/Independent Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein 6 7 7 Fine Gael/Fianna Fail/Labour Fianna Fail/Labour Fine Gael/Independent 4 4 4 None of them 9 Some other combination 5 Don t know/no opinion 21 24. Q. Which, if any, of the following combinations would you like to see in the next government.
Over half (54pc) would consider Leo Varadkar for Taoiseach (yes/it depends) HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 35 65+ Year Olds 33 No 23 31 Yes HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 49 55-64 Year Olds 46 Farming Community 32 Fianna Fail Supporters 29 ABs 28 23 22 Labour Supporters 39 Independents Supporters 36 ABC1s 36 Dublin Residents 28 Fianna Fail Supporters 36 It depends Don t know Munster Residents 35 25. Q. Would you like to see Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach in the future or not?
Varadkar coming out has made little difference to attitudes on whether he should be Taoiseach or not HIGHER AMONG Less likely More likely HIGHER AMONG Farming Community 20 Labour Supporters 14 65+ Year Olds 14 Conn/Ulster Residents 12 Fianna Fail Supporters 12 7 9 13 Don t know/ no opinion 18-24 Year Olds 13 C1s 12 Conn/Ulster Residents 12 Labour Supporters 10 72 Makes no difference 26. Q. Has Leo Varadkar s decision to come out as gay made you more likely or less likely to want to see him as Taoiseach in the future?
Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach Opinions are not coloured by his sexuality, on either side Base: All who would LIKE/NOT LIKE to see Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach (n= 325 and 237 respectively) All who would LIKE to see Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach All who would NOT LIKE to see Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach Less Likely 2 15 2 More likely Don t know no opinion Less Likely 19 3 2 More likely Don t know no opinion 81 76 Makes no difference Makes no difference 27. Q. Has Leo Varadkar s decision to come out as gay made you more likely or less likely to want to see him as Taoiseach in the future?
Mixed views evident on whether new mortgage rules are a positive development or not HIGHER AMONG Fianna Fail Supporters 41 55-64 Year Olds 39 No 31 33 Yes HIGHER AMONG Fine Gael Supporters 47 Labour Supporters 45 C2s 38 ABs 42 Sinn Fein Supporters 38 Conn/Ulster Residents 35 16 19 Independents Supporters 39 55-64 Year Olds 38 Dublin Residents 37 It depends Don t know 28. Q. Do you see the changes on mortgage approval, whereby the central bank has introduced a new minimum deposit scheme, as a positive development or not?
Just two in five are definitely intending to pay water charges YES HIGHER AMONG Yes, intend to pay (37) No, do not intend to pay (30) 30 40 Fine Gael Supporters 71 ABs 57 65+ Year Olds 54 Fianna Fail Supporters 49 55-64 Year Olds 48 It depends (14) Not applicable (9) Don't know (10) 10 10 10 NO HIGHER AMONG Sinn Fein Supporters 50 Independents Supporters 40 DEs 38 Conn/Ulster Residents 38 ( )= December 2014 Results 29. Q. In light of the Governments recently revised package of water charges, do you intend to pay your water charges when the bills arrive in April or not?
Majority believe same sex marriage should be recognised within the constitution, but over one in five undecided Will vote against the amendment Will vote in favour of the amendment HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG 65+ Year Olds 36 Under 35 Year Olds 73 Farming Community 32 Fianna Fail Supporters 29 16 62 Sinn Fein Supporters 72 ABC1s 67 Labour Supporters 24 Conn/Ulster Residents 21 22 Females 68 Fine Gael Supporters 66 Don t know 30. Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to provide for recognition of Same Sex marriages by the state. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment?
Voting intentions excluding don t knows Base: Excluding Don t Knows (798) Will vote against the amendment Will vote in favour of the amendment HIGHER AMONG 65+ Year Olds 47 Farming Community 46 Fianna Fail Supporters 35 Labour Supporters 28 Males 25 Conn/Ulster Residents 25 20 80 HIGHER AMONG 18-24 Year Olds 93 Under 35 Year Olds 91 Sinn Fein Supporters 86 C1s 85 Dublin Residents 85 Females 84 31. Q. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to provide for recognition of Same Sex marriages by the state. Will you vote in favour or against this amendment?
Six in ten of those in favour of amending the constitution are certain in their intentions Base: All In Favour or Against Amendment (798) Total In Favour Against Absolutely certain HARD YES HARD NO 60 62 53 Pretty certain SOFT YES SOFT NO 31 30 33 Some reservations Not at all certain 6 6 6 2 1 6 Don t know (2) (2) (2) 32. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming referendum?
Over half are in favour of the 8 th Amendment being repealed, but uncertainty has increased HIGHER AMONG Against (19) In Favour (56) HIGHER AMONG 65+ Year Olds 19 Independents Supporters 19 Labour Supporters 18 13 56 Labour Supporters 67 35-44 Year Olds 64 ABs 62 Munster Residents 16 31 Dublin Residents 61 Conn/Ulster Residents 61 Sinn Fein Supporters 61 Don t know/ No opinion (25) ( )= September 2014 Results 33. Q. Are you personally in favour, or against, holding a referendum to repeal the 8th amendment to the Constitution, which currently gives equal right to life to the mother and the foetus?
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran paul.moran@millwardbrown.com 086 341 1970 Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 18 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 www.millwardbrown.com/ie 34.