Public Opinion & Political Action Learning Objectives 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 Identify demographic trends & their likely impact on American politics. Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions. Explain how polls are conducted & what can be learned from them about American public opinion. 1
Eanes ISD The Immigrant Society The American Melting Pot The Regional Shift The Graying of America 6.1 2
6.1 A nation of nations 1 million legal immigrants/year 500,000 illegal immigrants/year 11% of residents foreign-born Waves of immigration 1. Northwest Europe (English, Irish, Scottish, Germans, Scandinavians) 2. Southern & Eastern Europe (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians) 3. Hispanics (Cuba, Central America, Mexico) & Asians (Vietnam, Korea, the Philippines, India) 3
6.1 Restrictions on immigration Open Door Policy (China) Criminals, prostitutes, lunatics, diseased (1875) Chinese Exclusion Act (1882) Johnson-Reid Immigration Act (1924) Hart-Celler Immigration & Nationality Act (1965) 4
Minority majority 6.1 Hispanic population growing rapidly U.S. states & districts in which non-hispanic whites: Red: Currently are a minority or plurality Pink: Currently are less than 60% of the population Green: Were formerly a minority or plurality 6.1 Reluctant immigrants 17% of population 27% still live in poverty Political power increasing Simpson-Mazzoli Act (1986) 5
6.1 Political culture & assimilation Courtesy of Marty Wattenberg 6.1 Northeast most populous West & South growing since WWII Sun Belt migration Arizona, Texas, Florida Political power of these areas increasing Reapportionment Once each decade, after census 6
7
6.1 Over-65 fastest growing age group People living longer Fertility rate lower Implications for Social Security Ratio changing Politically-sensitive 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing? 6.1 1. From Northeast to Southwest 2. From Northwest to Southeast 3. From Southwest to Northeast 4. From Midwest to Northeast 8
The Process of Political Socialization Political Learning over a Lifetime 6.2 The Family 6.2 Central role Time & emotional commitment The Mass Media The new parents (& teachers) Age gap in following politics School Forming civic virtue 9
6.2 Increasing participation w/ age Party identification strengthens Political behaviour is learned FIGURE 6.2 Turnout increases with age 6.2 10
1. Government 2. Family 3. School 4. Profession 11
6.3 How Polls Are Conducted The Role of Polls in American Democracy What Polls Reveal About Americans' Political Information The Decline of Trust in Government 6.3 Sample Random sample Sampling error Random digit dialing Cell phones Internet polling Exit polls 12
6.3 Polling as a tool for democracy: pros & cons Gauge opinion between elections Following rather than leading Pandering or shaping? Bandwagon effect Exit polls Affect election results Question wording Distribution of Ideology in the United States SOURCE: Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan, 2008 American National Election Study. 13
92A Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, February 5-10, 2010 14
Who conducted the poll? Who paid for it? What was the sample size? How were people chosen? What area or group were people chosen from? When was the poll conducted? What kind of poll was this? (mail-in poll, random-digit dialing poll, subscriber poll?) WHAT IS THE SAMPLING ERROR? What questions were asked? How were they worded? In what order were the questions asked? 15
ONION MODEL OF PUBLIC OPINION Activists Attentive Public Mobilizable Public Disinterested Voters Non-participatory Public 6.3 Americans are uninformed Jeffersonian faith in wisdom of common people unfounded Young people most uninformed Who is responsible for the ill-informed electorate? Is it the schools' fault? Is it the media's fault? Paradox of mass politics 16
6.3 The great slide Vietnam War Watergate Economy/hostage crisis Is public cynicism good? Negative effect on programs for poor FIGURE 6.4 The Decline of trust in government, 1958 2012 6.3 17
6.3 Usually inaccurate Don't poll every voter Influence election results None of the above FIGURE 6.3 Many Americans (18-24) show little knowledge of world geography (2002) 6.3 18
Public Opinion & Political Action Learning Objectives 6.4 Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans' political thinking & behavior. 6 6.5 6.6 Classify forms of political participation into two broad types. Analyze how public opinion about the scope of government guides political behavior. 6.4 Who Are the Liberals & Conservatives? Do People Think in Ideological Terms? 19
20
How does America stand? Conservatives dominate 38% conservative, 36% moderate & 23% liberal Younger people less conservative Minorities less conservative Wealthy more conservative Gender gap Religious more conservative 6.4 Beliefs Strong role of gov t Emphasis on Equal Opportunity Gov t can help solve problems Pro-Choice Anti-Death Penalty Gov t regulation of economy Want to limit climate change Gun Control Advocates Pro immigration Pro same-sex marriage Higher taxes, higher gov t spending Support welfare Groups Minority groups: Blacks Latinos/Hispanic People Asian Americans American Indians Jews Atheists Women People w/a college education City dwellers Youth Labor (workers) Lower Income Gays & Lesbians 21
Beliefs Limited role of gov t Emphasis on personal responsibility, traditional American values Empowering individuals to solve problems Pro-Life Pro Death Penalty Free market economy (w/out gov t interference) Unsure if climate change is happening Against Gun Control Okay w/legal immigration, want to secure the border Against same-sex marriage Lower taxes, lower gov t spending Groups Whites Evangelical Christians Mormons Some Roman Catholics Men Rural dwellers Elderly Higher income Business people Quest for ethnic/racial equality Concern for religion in public schools Feminist movement emerges Gay rights movement begins Abortion Cynicism, distrust of national government grows 22
23
24
25
26
27
TABLE 6.1 How to tell a liberal from a conservative 6.4 6.4 Types of voters Ideologues Group benefits Nature of the times No issue content Ideology of limited importance Seen as threat to family 28
29
30
6.4 31
6.5 Higher socioeconomic status = higher participation rates Minorities vote at nearly equal levels What are the policy implications of lower political participation? 32
6.4 1. Moderate 2. Liberal 3. Democrat 4. Conservative Conventional Participation Protest as Participation Class, Inequality, & Participation 6.5 33
Conventional 6.5 participation Voting Running for office Collecting signatures for a petition Unconventional participation Protesting Civil disobedience Violence 34
Drawing attention Protests attract media Rare Civil disobedience Violence 6.5 35
But only 2% of population protest regularly. 36
37
Lunch counter sit-in 6.5 Bettmann/Corbis Kent State 6.5 John Filo/Premium Archive/Getty Images 38
6.5 1. Voting 2. Writing to elected officials 3. Working on campaigns 4. Protesting 6.6 Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government Democracy, Public Opinion, & Political Action 39
6.6 Should government do more or less? In peacetime, most Americans say "less" But public opinion is complex & inconsistent Ideological conservatives Operational liberals Policy gridlock 6.6 Representative democracy Decide who governs Is public fit to choose its leaders? Yes & no 40
1. More 2. Less 3. About the same as we have currently 4. It is unclear what the public wants 41
6 Why do we say that Americans are ideological conservatives but operational liberals? What role does political ideology play in public opinion? Would it be better or worse for the public interest if Americans were more ideologically consistent? 42