New Zealand Media Coverage of the 2011 Election Study Mid-way Results (Covering 26 October to 8 November 2011) 10 November 2011 Dr. Babak Bahador and Ms. Katherine Roff School of Social and Political Sciences University of Canterbury Press Contact: Ms. Katherine Roff Tel: 0226293038 Comments and feedback: Dr. Babak Bahador Babak.bahador@canterbury.ac.nz
Contents Section 1: The Parties... 3 1.1 Media Coverage of Leading Parties... 3 Figure 1 and Table 1: Volume of Media Coverage of Parties... 3 1.2 Tone of Party Media Coverage... 4 Figure 2: Negative Coverage of Parties... 4 Figure 3: Positive Coverage of Parties... 5 Table 2: Tone of Party Coverage in the Media... 5 Section 2: The Party Leaders... 6 2.1 Media Coverage of Party Leaders... 6 Figure 4 and Table 3: Volume of Media Coverage of Party Leaders... 6 2.2 Tone of Party Leaders Media Coverage... 6 Figure 5: Negative Coverage of Party Leaders... 7 Figure 6: Positive Coverage of Party Leaders... 8 Table 4: Tone of Party Leaders Coverage... 8 Section 3: The Issues... 9 3.1 Leading Policy Issues... 9 Figure 7 and Table 5: Leading Policy Issues... 9 3.2 Leading Non-Policy Issues... 10 Figure 8 and Table 6: Leading Non-Policy Issues... 10 3.3 The Referendum... 11 Figure 9 and Table 7: Volume of Referendum Electoral System Coverage... 11 Table 8: Tone of Referendum Electoral System Coverage... 12 Methodology... 13 2
Section 1: The Parties 1.1 Media Coverage of Leading Parties National led Labour 40.7% to 36.8% in media coverage devoted to parties Smaller parties receive 22.5% of media coverage for parties, led by The Green Party at 9.7% Figure 1 and Table 1: Volume of Media Coverage of Parties Maori 3% ACT 5% Mana 2% NZ First 2% United Future 1% Green 10% National 41% Labour 37% Party Percentage of Coverage National 40.7% Labour 36.8% Green 9.7% ACT 4.7% Maori 3.0% Mana 2.2% New Zealand First 2.1% United Future 0.8% Total 100% 3
1.2 Tone of Party Media Coverage Overall, there was 11.8% more negative coverage related to parties than positive National received the most negative coverage at 53.9% of its total coverage, while Labour was third at 43.2% The Green Party received the most positive coverage at 51.5% of its total coverage National had 27.5% more negative coverage than positive, while Labour had 10.8% more. The Green Party received the most net positive coverage at 41.7%. Figure 2: Negative Coverage of Parties National ACT Labour New Zealand First Maori Mana United Future Green 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 4
Figure 3: Positive Coverage of Parties Green United Future Maori Mana Labour New Zealand First National ACT 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Table 2: Tone of Party Coverage in the Media Party Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference National 53.9% 26.4% 19.6% -27.5% ACT 43.8% 24.1% 32.1% -19.8% Labour 43.2% 32.4% 24.4% -10.8% New Zealand First 41.1% 28.8% 30.1% -12.3% Maori 31.4% 34.3% 34.3% 2.9% Mana 21.1% 32.9% 46.1% 11.8% United Future 19.2% 42.3% 38.5% 23.1% Green 9.8% 51.5% 38.7% 41.7% All Parties 43.3% 31.5% 25.2% -11.8% 5
Section 2: The Party Leaders 2.1 Media Coverage of Party Leaders John Key received the largest amount of media coverage amongst party leaders at 48.6%, followed by Phil Goff at 35% All other small party leaders received a combined coverage of 16.3%, led by Winston Peters at 6.5% Figure 4 and Table 3: Volume of Media Coverage of Party Leaders Phil Goff 35% Winston Peters 6% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 4% Hone Harawira 2% John Key 49% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 1% Don Brash 2% Peter Dunne 1% Leader Percentage of Coverage John Key 48.6% Phil Goff 35.0% Winston Peters 6.5% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 4.2% Hone Harawira 2.0% Don Brash 1.7% Peter Dunne 1.1% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 0.9% Total 100.0% 2.2 Tone of Party Leaders Media Coverage Overall, there was 12.3% more negative coverage of party leaders than positive 6
The leaders of the two largest parties had similar net negative coverage, with John Key at -13.8% and Phil Goff at -13.4% Don Brash, Winston Peters and Hone Harawira received the most negative coverage as a percentage of their media coverage at 52.5%, 51.3% and 44.7, respectively Peter Dunne and the leaders of the Maori and Green parties received the most positive coverage as a percentage of their media coverage at 48%, 47.6% and 39.8%, respectively Figure 5: Negative Coverage of Party Leaders Russel Norman or Metiria Turei Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples Peter Dunne Phil Goff John Key Hone Harawira Winston Peters Don Brash 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 7
Figure 6: Positive Coverage of Party Leaders Don Brash Winston Peters Hone Harawira Phil Goff John Key Russel Norman or Metiria Turei Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples Peter Dunne 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Table 4: Tone of Party Leaders Coverage Leader Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference Don Brash 52.5% 17.5% 30.0% -35.0% Winston Peters 51.3% 24.3% 24.3% -27.0% Hone Harawira 44.7% 27.7% 27.7% -17.0% John Key 44.4% 30.6% 24.9% -13.8% Phil Goff 42.6% 29.2% 28.1% -13.4% Peter Dunne 32.0% 48.0% 20.0% 16.0% Tariana Turia or Pita Sharples 19.0% 47.6% 33.3% 28.6% Russel Norman or Metiria Turei 8.2% 39.8% 52.0% 31.6% Total 42.5% 30.2% 27.3% -12.3% 8
Section 3: The Issues 3.1 Leading Policy Issues The economy was the leading policy issue through the first two weeks of the 2011 election campaign, garnering 20.7% of all policy issue media coverage, followed by social and public services at 20.2% and Kiwisaver/superannuation at 12.9%. Figure 7 and Table 5: Leading Policy Issues Education Transport / Infrastructure Law and Order Employment Tax Environment State Owned Assets Kiwisaver / Superannuation Social and Public Services Economy 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Issues Percentage of Coverage Economy 20.7% Social and Public Services 20.2% Kiwisaver / Superannuation 12.9% State Owned Assets 11.2% Environment 8.5% Tax 5.2% Employment 5.0% Law and Order 3.8% Transport / Infrastructure 3.6% Education 2.8% Other 6.2% Total 100% * Other issues included healthcare, foreign relations/trade, defence/security, immigration, arts/culture/sports, Maori issues, broadcasting/media, business, and science/technology/innovation. 9
3.2 Leading Non-Policy Issues References to the polls, public opinion and the horserace was the leading nonpolicy issue of the 2011 election through the first two weeks at 44.5%, followed by references to the nature of the campaign at 31.5%. Figure 8 and Table 6: Leading Non-Policy Issues Scandals Personality or personal life Marketing/Advertising Coalition/MMP The Campaign (nature) Polls/Public Opinion/Horserace 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Non-Policy Issues Percentage of Coverage Polls/Public Opinion/Horserace 44.5% The Campaign (nature) 31.5% Coalition/MMP (non-referendum) 12.5% Marketing/Advertising 4.5% Personality/personal life 3.8% Scandals 3.3% Total 100% 10
3.3 The Referendum From the different electoral system options in the referendum, the current Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system received the most media coverage at 53.6%, followed by First Past the Post (FPP) at 16.2%. The MMP system had 9.9% more negative coverage than positive, while FPP had 21.1% more negative coverage than positive. The Single Transfer Vote (STV) system received the most net positive coverage, with 32.6% more positive coverage than negative. Figure 9 and Table 7: Volume of Referendum Electoral System Coverage STV PV SM FPP MMP 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Electoral System Options Percentage of Coverage Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) 53.6% First Past the Post (FPP) 16.2% Supplementary Member (SM) 11.9% Preferential Voting (PV) 9.1% Single Transfer Vote (STV) 9.1% Total 100% 11
Table 8: Tone of Referendum Electoral System Coverage System Negative Positive Neutral Positive/Negative Difference Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) 41.7% 31.7% 26.6% -9.9% First Past the Post (FPP) 53.9% 32.9% 13.2% -21.1% Preferential Voting (PV) 27.9% 39.5% 32.6% 11.6% Single Transfer Vote (STV) 20.9% 53.5% 25.6% 32.6% Supplementary Member (SM) 17.9% 48.2% 33.9% 30.4% Total 37.7% 36.6% 25.7% -1.1% 12
Methodology The findings in this study are based on a content analysis of leading New Zealand daily newspapers (New Zealand Herald, Dominion Post and The Press) and daily television news programmes (TV1 and TV3 evening news). The findings in this report are based on results from the first two weeks of a four-week study. The first two weeks cover the period from Wednesday 26 October 2011 to (and including) Tuesday 8 November 2011. Over the first two weeks, 355 media stories were analysed. Stories were selected if they met the following criteria: Newspapers: From front page, election/politics section or editorial. At least 50% of the content related to the election. Television: From first 10 news stories. At least 50% of the content related to the election. Within each story, references for the following five categories were identified and coded: 1: Parties (e.g. Labour, National), 2: Party Leaders (e.g. Key, Goff), 3: Policy issues (e.g. economy, tax), 4: Non-policy issues (e.g. polls, scandals), 5: Referendum (e.g. MMP). References to these categories formed the unit of analysis (UOA) for this study. In total, 11,782 UOA were identified based on the following distribution amongst the different categories: Categories Units of Analysis Percentage of Total Parties 3,458 29.3% Leaders 2,343 19.9% Policy Issues 2,742 23.3% Non-policy Issues 2,769 23.5% Referendum 470 4.0% Total (N =) 11,782 100% Tone (positive, negative and neutral) was determined based on matching each reference to a media frame or frames. For example, references to a party leaders as desperate for power or flip-flopper were coded as negative frames, while references to party leaders as experienced or having bold ideas would be coded as positive frames. In total, 117 different frames were identified in this study. 13